C'mon bulldogs one more try!
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I picked a good time to tail you, thanks man spot on picksComment -
Nothing better than hammering Friday night footy in both codes.
Cheers for your work in here TG.
Let's hammer the farkkk out of the books this weekend !!!Comment -
Originally posted by Crowing Capers
Let's get em!
Some great games this weekend to get money off the booksComment -
updated: NRL Season 2012 70-60 +24.40
Round 18 2-0
Play #3
Storm -12.5 vs Raiders 2x 1.94
The Raiders have won just 5/20 matches away from home and their record against the Storm is almost as bad as the Dragons 12yr winless streak in Canberra. Storm have named a side which includes all the Origin players and none are expected to be late withdrawals. We should see a resurgent Storm tonight who will be keen to dominate after coming off a loss against the Bulldogs. The Raiders were competitive against the Storm in Round 1 but are a different side now with injuries to key players.
The public is all over Raiders +12.5 after the win last week but they've had their grand final. The Storm are completely different to the Dragons and have attacking weapons all over the park. Raiders defence will be shown up tonight and the 'shirt grabbers' in the side won't have anywhere to hide. Storm coach Bellamy had 2 weeks to do his homework on the Raiders and will be well aware of the glaring weaknesses in their defensive line. Expecting a runaway game to the Storm and can't go past Storm -12.5. Model has this game at 22point win.
Rolling with 2x Storm-12.5 at 1.94. GL
. No value in the total for this game.. so laying off it.
Play #4
Titans vs Warriors UNDER 41.5 1x 1.95
It'll be a wet track tonight on the Gold Coast with rain forecast. Titans have been playing great defence and will be stronger tonight with the return of Zillman, Champion, Bailey & White. Warriors have been lacking on the fringes and should try to play this game in the forwards. It should be a grind away game with lots of tight play on a wet field - perfect for the UNDER. Last time they met the total was 32 with almost the same lineups, this time the Warriors will be without Vatuvei & Rapira.
Have this game at 28 points.. less if the rain sets in. Will consider a 2x play if we're getting torrential rain & the same total before kickoff. Rolling with 1x 1.95 on the UNDER. GL
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Titans / Warriors UNDER just dropped to 40.5... possibly because it's started raining on the Gold CoastComment -
5 dimes doesn't have totals for the NRL. Tailed you on the Storm -13.5Comment -
Its a beautiful day here, but might be a different story by kick offOriginally posted by That GuyComment -
40.5 just seems like way too low a total for this warriors side. we saw how their match turned out against penrith in absolute miserable weather. but titans are a lot better in terms of discipline and defence so hopefully it'll stay under the total.Comment -
5diimes posts Rugby League totals really late, like 2-3 hours before game time.Originally posted by Balco10Comment -
adding 1x unit to the UNDER above at 1x 2.08.. for a total of 2 units
GL
Originally posted by That Guyupdated: NRL Season 2012 70-60 +24.40
Round 18 2-0
Play #3
Storm -12.5 vs Raiders 2x 1.94
The Raiders have won just 5/20 matches away from home and their record against the Storm is almost as bad as the Dragons 12yr winless streak in Canberra. Storm have named a side which includes all the Origin players and none are expected to be late withdrawals. We should see a resurgent Storm tonight who will be keen to dominate after coming off a loss against the Bulldogs. The Raiders were competitive against the Storm in Round 1 but are a different side now with injuries to key players.
The public is all over Raiders +12.5 after the win last week but they've had their grand final. The Storm are completely different to the Dragons and have attacking weapons all over the park. Raiders defence will be shown up tonight and the 'shirt grabbers' in the side won't have anywhere to hide. Storm coach Bellamy had 2 weeks to do his homework on the Raiders and will be well aware of the glaring weaknesses in their defensive line. Expecting a runaway game to the Storm and can't go past Storm -12.5. Model has this game at 22point win.
Rolling with 2x Storm-12.5 at 1.94. GL. No value in the total for this game.. so laying off it.
Play #4
Titans vs Warriors UNDER 41.5 1x 1.95
It'll be a wet track tonight on the Gold Coast with rain forecast. Titans have been playing great defence and will be stronger tonight with the return of Zillman, Champion, Bailey & White. Warriors have been lacking on the fringes and should try to play this game in the forwards. It should be a grind away game with lots of tight play on a wet field - perfect for the UNDER. Last time they met the total was 32 with almost the same lineups, this time the Warriors will be without Vatuvei & Rapira.
Have this game at 28 points.. less if the rain sets in. Will consider a 2x play if we're getting torrential rain & the same total before kickoff. Rolling with 1x 1.95 on the UNDER. GLComment -
Storm.. WTF?!
Been at dinner till now and just saw the final score. Wow. I know Cam Smith was ruled out late.. But wow.
Massive congrats to everyone that took Raiders - never saw that coming.Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2012 70-62 +20.40
Round 18 2-2
Well that sucks.. Titans UNDER blown in the last 2mins with absolutely nothing on!
Variance killing things at the moment. We grind on tomorrow.. GLComment -
NRL Season 2012 70-62 +20.40
Round 18 2-2
Play #5
Rabbitohs vs Knights OVER 42.5 2x 1.85
Matchups for these two sides points to a big OVER play. Knights have been great at leaking points and the Rabbitohs give up plenty as well (even if they are winning games). Expect these teams to throw it around early and Rabbitohs to create some space on the fringes. Knights have been more effective in attack recently and should add more points to a lethal Souths team of try scorers. Have this game at 48points and rolling with 2x 1.85. GL
Play #6
Rabbitohs - 10.5 vs Knights 2x 1.72
Rabbitohs should have way too much power in the forwards for the Knights to hold on. Inglis 100% confirmed at fullback against the Knights is another big blow. Model predicts the Rabbitohs to win by 11 points and I'm a little wary of buying a -12.5 line. Rabbitohs have a habit of letting teams back into the game late in the match and did not completely dominate the Panthers last week as predicted. Taking a shorter line of -10.5 but rolling a 2x play. GL
Play #7
Sea Eagles vs Eels UNDER 42.5 1x 2.15
Public is pounding the OVER on this game but looking at the stats the UNDER looks very nice. Eels have been struggling to put points on the board and averaging only 12pts per game over the past 6 matches. For this game to go OVER today we need the Sea Eagles to put on 32+ points or the Eels to fire up. I don't think it happens. Eels missing Hayne are a different side in attack but they should hold on in defence - they have UNDER the last 4 games despite being beaten solidly in some matches. Manly will be on guard today after being beaten by the Eels earlier in the season. We should see a score of around 28-8 and a total of 36.
Rolling with 1x at the great price of 2.15. GL
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updated: NRL Season 2012 72-63 +22.54
Round 18 4-3
Can't complain with a +EV day on the books and 2x 2unit plays cashing. Disappointing the Eels couldn't provide some form of defence to slow down the Sea Eagles. Had fiddled with the model with Hayne ruled out, giving Eels negative attacking points but left defence points unchanged - this was a mistake and pushed the play to an UNDER.
Looking to end the round on a high with MNF tomorrow night. GLComment -
This guy is a loser on NRL...he is fade materielComment -
Originally posted by Balco10
That is why he is up 22 units on the season?
Let me guess..You tailed on one random play and lost?Comment -
Feel free to fade... Always stated that the goal was 30units for the season, so far round for round I've been positive 15/17 rounds. I don't think that's a bad figure but I'm always working to improve.Originally posted by Balco10
My guess is you haven't been tailing me from Round 1 and complaining about being up 22 units?
You took 1 play on the Storm and went big on it and lost right?
Anyone who knows NRL would appreciate this as a massive upset... We lost 2 units with that play as opposed to 20x units you might have seen elsewhere on this forum. Money management is key. I'd also assume you didn't tail today because you'd be up units...
I'm heavily invested into making a profit and personally putting $500 on each unit. You won't see crazy "all in" plays or 10x units - I'm here for the long haul.
GL with your plays.. always keen for intelligent feedback and criticism.Comment -
Please dont listen to the troll my friend. I myself am only upset that i missed the picks from last night. Keep up the great work and thanks a lot for sharing your insight. best of luckComment -
cheers mateOriginally posted by silvap
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Lol, TG you gave that guy way too much class with your response, I would have just kindly told him to FK off! Then again that can sometimes encourage them.
Nice round again, didn't get much time to research NRL this weekend, was on Souths but that's about it.
MNF is a hard one to predict ... I'm thinking the over as Roosters defense is shocking but they can turn on the points themselves. Cronulla generally lack attacking flair but do well at grinding down teams like the Roosters with mistake free football and repeat set of 6's. Weather looks great here in Sydney and overs have been the trend of late.
Your thoughts?Comment -
Yeah I'm with you on the OVER for Sharks / Roosters. Especially with an open of 38.5 - Roosters give up 26pts avg per game. If Sharks are on their game and wear down Roosters defense this goes way over. Last time a Roosters UNDER cashed was in Round 11.Originally posted by benrama
TAB OVER was getting pounded last time I looked - down to 1.65. You'd have to think they'll lift it up to 39 or 40 soon.Comment -
NRL Season 2012 72-63 +22.54
Round 18 4-3
Play #8
Sharks vs Roosters OVER 38.5 2x 1.95
Roosters defense has been shocking recently - in the last 2 games they've let go more then 70pts but still managed to put on 56 points. Against a free flowing side like the Sharks it would take a lot for the side to suddenly start playing tight and controlled football without giving away points. There has been plenty of talk about Roosters defense improving for this week but.. just don't trust such a dramatic turnaround will occur. Stats for the Roosters are almost the same as the Tigers for the past 3 weeks and we saw what happened to their defense on Friday night.
Todd Carney will be up for a big match against his former club and the return of Shaun Kenny-Dowell for the Roosters should provide some added attacking spark. No rain forecast tonight is a bonus. Have this game at 46points - well over the 38 on offer at the books. Not a fan of playing multiple units all weekend but can't pass up the value on the OVER play. Rolling with 2x on the OVER 38.5 at 1.95. Total has risen at some books but was still available this morning. GL
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Over 40.5 still good?Comment -
I'm also down on Cronulla -6 (got it 2 days ago, as I could see the market moving over the try by kick off). I think the spread going over the try to -6.5 is probably a bit too marginal to be a play now. However if anyone can still get Cronulla at -6, i'd be thinking of getting down.Comment -
Should still cash but I wouldn't go large on it.. just in case.Originally posted by sportsguy04
Total has moved up to 39.5 and 40.5 at most places now. Not sure if 38.5 is still available elsewhere.Comment -
This is one of the riskiest games of recent times.
Sharks are without Gallen and Bukuya. The Roosters are the Roosters.
This one could easily have 14 points or 50.Comment -
This is true - Sharks are missing Gallen & Bukuya.. I think it's more worrying for Sharks ML not the total. Playing the Broncos without Gallen they were on fire and took the forwards out of the picture. If they play half as good tonight the Roosters will be shattered.Originally posted by hawley
The total figure at Shark Park is also skewed because it's rained 85% of the time this year at that venue. The true total should be much much higher... Hopefully we see that tonight.Comment -
Jeremy Smith also out, but I agree I think that helps the total a bit, these are damn good defensive players out. Hopefully the Roosters drag them down to a game of touch footy.Comment -
Total up to 41.5 at my book....
Still getting pounded at 1.80 for the OVER - always great to beat the closerComment -
Thoughts on the line dropping to -4.5?
Was eyeing off the -5.5/o38.5 double at $3.50.
Thoughts?Comment -
Sharks have dropped because they've announced another 2 players out for tonight's match.
Williams, Leutele, Green & Tupou IN. Best & Gordon out for the Sharks along with Gallen & Bukuya - backline looking a little shakey now... Defensively these 4 get thru a lot of work. Shaun Kenny-Dowall won't mind going up against an inexperinced centre on his return. hopefully we're in for a touch footy game tonight!Comment -
So stay away from a side & pound the o40.5?Comment -
On the Over 39.5! Lets cash itComment -
excellent startComment
