Afl 2012

**johno35** · 04-24-12, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by kingsr

I like this opportunity. The rain presents a great opportunity to slow ess down and coll midfield can dominate.

Yeah totally agree with that, if it was dry I would back Essendon's run but I think the skills of Pendlebury and Co will be the difference today. No Hurley will hurt Essendon also, I'm on Pies and under 174.5

**brettels** · 04-24-12, 10:27 PM

Going small on pies h2h... Don't know where they are at but think they may have some real fight in them to try and prove a point that they may still be contenders but if they lose I think it's the real sign of the fall of collingwood.

**Lookingtostart** · 04-24-12, 11:37 PM

Regarding O/U, what would be a good be if Collingwood were to play like Port?

**johno35** · 04-25-12, 12:18 AM

This MCG ground is awesome, its been raining for 3 solid days here in Melb and the ground is in perfect nik. Under still looking good though

**brettels** · 04-25-12, 02:13 AM

Thank jebus for refund offers on these big games ! If collingwood lose, im getting a refund(leading at half time).

**brettels** · 04-25-12, 02:18 AM

80-79 collingwood win!

good game i thought!

**Lookingtostart** · 04-25-12, 02:20 AM

I missed the play, waited too long to place a bet!

Well done Essendon line backers!

Does anyone remember the closing line?

**kingsr** · 04-25-12, 02:26 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

$1200 on collingwood ML $1.75!

Oh yeah! What a way to win! Swan best indivual performance I have ever seen from him!

Gimme the cash!

**Coopertrooper** · 04-25-12, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

Oh yeah! What a way to win! Swan best indivual performance I have ever seen from him!

Gimme the cash!

Nicely done!

Yeah, probably Swannies best game, dragged us over the line in the end.

**brettels** · 04-25-12, 08:24 AM

Well done kingsr

I think carlton bounce back this week and will be too good for freo!

**kingsr** · 04-25-12, 11:18 AM

Thanks boys. Let's keep making that ca$h!

**brettels** · 04-26-12, 04:35 AM

Big drop on the carlton odds

**Coopertrooper** · 04-26-12, 07:57 AM

Originally posted by brettels

Big drop on the carlton odds

No doubt due to Sandilands missing... but I still feel they'll be a little too good for the blues. They'll be tough to beat over there... have a free bet on the game for the points market, so took freo 1-39 @2.85

**brettels** · 04-26-12, 08:43 PM

currently the only total is at b365 @180.5 so as an indicator how do the aussie books open? around the same or sometimes a big difference? i rarely check 365 but now i try to get a feel of what the aussie books might open the total with.

carlton and freo over 180.5 on a good day, hows the weather in perth for tonight?

I'm having a crack at the line/o&u double when it comes out in favour of carltons line

**brettels** · 04-26-12, 11:39 PM

carlton at the points -11.5 @2.10 (sportsbet)

Carlton -8.5/over 185.5 double @3.45 (TAB vic)

**kingsr** · 04-27-12, 12:18 AM

I think the value on Freemantle is amazing. $2.30 at home in what seems to be a toss of the coin job...

**Domestic** · 04-27-12, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

I think the value on Freemantle is amazing. $2.30 at home in what seems to be a toss of the coin job...

I'm thinking the same way, love the western teams at home in the AFL.

**MatI** · 04-27-12, 12:54 AM

I just read this comment in a sportal article, this is from a sportingbet spokesman -

"There has been twice the money on Fremantle to win as there has been on Carlton," he said. "And there has also been a lot of interest on the Dockers to win by 1-39 points (at $2.55)."

Can this comment be trusted? If double the amount of bets are going on Freo, why are odds drifting out against them?

I am already pretty keen on taking Carlton in this one, but if the above is true, then even more so IMO.

Also, Carlton have the speed on Freo, and on such a big ground, they should be able to create plenty of space for themselves. The concern I think, for Blues, is they will miss the speed provided by Yarran, but the introduction of Walker & Garlett should be able to cover this. Sandilands out is going to be a big blow I think. Carlton can win out of the centre and should have plenty of options due to space and their speed.

**brettels** · 04-27-12, 01:09 AM

And it would be one of judds favourite grounds

**Coopertrooper** · 04-27-12, 01:13 AM

Warm over in Perth, so don't think it'll break open, and both sides could tire a bit. Like the under, will hit it for 1 unit. Early days on betfair, but most money seems to be for the under (their market has 185.5 up)

**nocode1** · 04-27-12, 01:20 AM

Hey guys going over 183.5 in the freo/Carlton game

Also having a multi

Carlton +18.5
north -46.5
brisbane +55.5
hawthorn +14.5
adelaide +19.5

@2.52

Im putting 2 units on this one, really like it

**Coopertrooper** · 04-27-12, 01:25 AM

And not long after I said that, the over is now down to about $1.90 on betfair, and the under is $2.10. Very sudden change, but looks like there could be some juicy odds there.

**johno35** · 04-27-12, 04:44 AM

Originally posted by brettels

carlton at the points -11.5 @2.10 (sportsbet)

Carlton -8.5/over 185.5 double @3.45 (TAB vic)

I'm with you Brett, got Carl -7.5 and over 183.5 on bet365

**brettels** · 04-27-12, 04:59 AM

Originally posted by johno35

I'm with you Brett, got Carl -7.5 and over 183.5 on bet365

Good stuff just did a bit more on the double with sportsbet same 183 total with 6.5 line.

**brettels** · 04-27-12, 05:00 AM

Originally posted by nocode1

Hey guys going over 183.5 in the freo/Carlton game

Also having a multi

Carlton +18.5
north -46.5
brisbane +55.5
hawthorn +14.5
adelaide +19.5

@2.52

Im putting 2 units on this one, really like it

Awesome let's cash it

**brettels** · 04-27-12, 06:56 AM

As long as the blues cover the points i pretty much break even

**johno35** · 04-27-12, 07:51 AM

It's becoming clear what Ross Lyon is going to do with this team, its all about defence. How many ball ups in this game?? So many players around the stoppages, takes all the run out of the game. This is exactly what happened at the saints, we couldn't score, and that's what going to happen to Freo. Hopefully Carlton can cover for us Brett

**brettels** · 04-27-12, 08:03 AM

Agree there johno, freo are the new saints, where ever ross lyon will be its going to be an unders team. Lesson learned tonight.

**brettels** · 04-27-12, 08:20 AM

That was such a cruel finish

**Lookingtostart** · 04-27-12, 08:37 AM

Bookies been very sharp this year, got the line at +9.5 so I'm relieved, I need to keep line shopping.

There's been a number of game lines decided by .5 or 1.5 points this year, I encourage everyone to do some line shopping for these games, get on Pinnacle for a start.

**Coopertrooper** · 04-27-12, 09:20 AM

Got going too late the dockers! Was surprised the total points figure was so high, easiest bet of the year so far!

**brettels** · 04-27-12, 10:27 AM

LTS Pinnacle might often have good odds but they have stuff all markets for my liking! We will get on top of the books very very soon.

**brettels** · 04-27-12, 08:31 PM

North Melbourne QT Line -20.5

North Melbourne Line -85.5

**Domestic** · 04-27-12, 09:28 PM

Good luck brettels, hard to see GC keeping in touch with the roos with no Ablett and also playing away. Look like strong plays.

**johno35** · 04-27-12, 10:22 PM

Good luck today Brett, I think there are some good opportunities today, my best bet is Lions/Cats over 168.5