Afl 2012

**johno35** · 05-02-12, 03:15 AM

Originally posted by brettels

Then play the swans line with confidence. Truth is no one really knows. I'll post my leans for every match on thursday, I'm good for a fade this year.

That is very true that no one really knows, I will def be on Sydney though. Don't be too hard on yourself mate, its a long season and things can turn around pretty quick.

**kingsr** · 05-02-12, 11:15 AM

I'll be on the swans for sure and I agree this line is only low because of that stat (not beaten Adel at scg since 04).

Swans -25.5 $200 that's the best bet on the board at this stage. I'll also have $50 on 40+

Can't wait, I'll actually be at the game

**brettels** · 05-02-12, 10:18 PM

Got 4 free bets

Used 2 so far with RICHMOND money line and swans line -25.5

What else has good probability at greater than 1.5 odds?

**brettels** · 05-02-12, 11:12 PM

added newcastle knights ML and NQ cowboys ML

**kingsr** · 05-02-12, 11:49 PM

WestCoke half time line?

**brettels** · 05-03-12, 12:31 AM

-13.5 , lets see how the teams are, west coast lost kennedy so thats a big dint.

**Gee** · 05-03-12, 01:00 AM

I'm a bit surprised that none of these lines have moved much this week and the only reason I can see for any move is team news. Melbourne came in 4 points when it was announced Grimes and Clark were going to be in and Eagles also came in 3 point when Kennedy was ruled out.

It will be interesting if there are any big moves after teams are named tonight.

Its fairly unusual for the ONLY two moves that I can see from the openers to be because of team news. Punters either taking it easy (AFL has been tough this season) or books are very happy with their lines...

I have no idea what I am going to play this weekend...

**kingsr** · 05-03-12, 01:30 AM

Bettels, newcastle are without Gidley and Buderus this week.

**brettels** · 05-03-12, 01:48 AM

Too late, it's ok just as long as at least one of them gets up. They are free bets.

**kingsr** · 05-03-12, 02:24 AM

Should be ok anyway...gidley is a joke of a player and Hilder can cover Buderus no problem.

**brettels** · 05-03-12, 02:59 AM

What about the mason addition to newcastle. He did nothing for NQ, how's he going now?

**Lookingtostart** · 05-03-12, 04:17 AM

Kennedy for the Eagles has been VERY inconsistent, when he has good games he looks dominant and looks like a superstar, but they are a few and far in-between. The problem is he is about the third Eagles forward to have a major injury. To me, it's not the individual, if Kennedy was the only one injured for the Eagles then I wouldn't give a shit, but when it's your main forward structure...

The issue for me then becomes, can the Eagles hold it in their forward zone? If they can, their crumbers are good enough to do the job. They can share the goals, but it has to come from a ball-up in their 50. They can do this.

Cox has been deceptively important up forward, he will be KEY!

I don't know much about North, so I will look at them so I can handicap the game. If North don't pay attention to Cox when he's up forward then he will kick a bag. They probably will.

**Coopertrooper** · 05-03-12, 07:03 AM

Will wait and see what the over/under is like. Anything from about 180 and above and I'll be looking at the under, I can't see the doggies scoring much against our defensive unit. We have a lot of defensive players in the side, so shouldn't be a really high scoring match, even for Etihad. That is about all I like so far!

**Domestic** · 05-03-12, 10:47 PM

Got on the over yesterday when it opened at 175.5 at bet365. For once I got on the right side of an AFL total early. Best of luck this weekend team.

**brettels** · 05-03-12, 11:20 PM

Mixed PYOL multi for tonights matches

Collingwood -17.5
Canterbury Bulldogs -3.5
NQ Cowboys -3.5
Bulls (S15 Union) -3.5
@ 5.54
sportsbet

How do you lot think it will do?

**kingsr** · 05-04-12, 01:30 AM

Originally posted by brettels

What about the mason addition to newcastle. He did nothing for NQ, how's he going now?

His stats suggest he did reasonably well for Nth Qld.

He played for Newcastle against Panthers last week and his presence alone was immedietely felt! He was able to attract defenders making dummy runs, that led to newcastle tries. All the panther defenders had their eyes on him LOL

He seems unfit though, but was a great presence on the field and he pumped the boys up! Great buy for $40,000!

**johno35** · 05-04-12, 04:33 AM

I'm on the under 185.5 tonight, I think the line is right so I'm staying away from that. If this was last years magpies the line would be about 50

**johno35** · 05-04-12, 04:43 AM

Originally posted by Lookingtostart

Kennedy for the Eagles has been VERY inconsistent, when he has good games he looks dominant and looks like a superstar, but they are a few and far in-between. The problem is he is about the third Eagles forward to have a major injury. To me, it's not the individual, if Kennedy was the only one injured for the Eagles then I wouldn't give a shit, but when it's your main forward structure...

The issue for me then becomes, can the Eagles hold it in their forward zone? If they can, their crumbers are good enough to do the job. They can share the goals, but it has to come from a ball-up in their 50. They can do this.

Cox has been deceptively important up forward, he will be KEY!

I don't know much about North, so I will look at them so I can handicap the game. If North don't pay attention to Cox when he's up forward then he will kick a bag. They probably will.

Yeah as good as Kennedy can be I think you will be fine without him. You have the big Q, Darling, Cox, Hams and Hill kicking goals and then a strong midfield to back them up. I think everyone is expecting North to be competative but after last weeks performance I think this will be a bit of a letdown game for them

**brettels** · 05-04-12, 07:25 AM

Originally posted by brettels

Mixed PYOL multi for tonights matches

Collingwood -17.5
Canterbury Bulldogs -3.5
NQ Cowboys -3.5
Bulls (S15 Union) -3.5
@ 5.54
sportsbet

How do you lot think it will do?

**garygroundwork** · 05-04-12, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by brettels

Mixed PYOL multi for tonights matches

Collingwood -17.5
Canterbury Bulldogs -3.5
NQ Cowboys -3.5
Bulls (S15 Union) -3.5
@ 5.54
sportsbet

How do you lot think it will do?

very nice indeed... well done mate, gee collingwood tried their best to **** it up for you...

**brettels** · 05-04-12, 08:50 AM

Thanks Gary! It's always the team I feel safest with this year that I end up sweating it till the end. Hopefully that will change as all the teams should really be settling into form as of now.

Just something about totals, there are three over/unders available on sportsbet for tomorrows NRL matches but none for AFL. I'm still frustrated that the Aussie books can't come out for all games on a thursday, and most of all at least for Etihad Stadium matches.

**Coopertrooper** · 05-04-12, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by johno35

I'm on the under 185.5 tonight, I think the line is right so I'm staying away from that. If this was last years magpies the line would be about 50

As soon as I saw something over 180 I got on too

Good start, have also played Hawks 1-39 for a unit. Can also pick up a free bet on the port/rich game, so hoping to have a good weekend!

**johno35** · 05-04-12, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by Coopertrooper

As soon as I saw something over 180 I got on too

Good start, have also played Hawks 1-39 for a unit. Can also pick up a free bet on the port/rich game, so hoping to have a good weekend!

Good stuff Coopertrooper

Here's what I'm on today

Ess/Bris Over 190.5
Brisbane +36.5
Geelong -53.5
GC/Freo Over 181.5

I'm probably gonna kick myself with the over in the Freo game!

**Lookingtostart** · 05-05-12, 04:46 AM

Hi to Bet365

Wow, the contrast compared to last year... nowhere near as much posting going on during games. Funny that.

**brettels** · 05-05-12, 05:03 AM

haha, they diverted to players thread and kept losing. Then they get given shit by the likes of JJ. We never lost like the last 4 weeks this year, last year. I think people are a bit stunned.

Boring lead up to todays games, after my win on friday night i am happy to settle for the weekend but after a boring day i have another multi for tonight

storm -3.5
tigers -3.5
hawks -11.5
swans -11.5
PYOL @ 3.95

Tomorrow going to back my Tigers to beat Port Adelaide!

**brettels** · 05-05-12, 05:05 AM

Titans early look like screwing tonights multi, not that confident in the whole thing now even if tigers get over them. Crows keeping swans at sea.

**brettels** · 05-05-12, 06:25 AM

Golden point CRAP fukn bum sniffing shyt sport bogan bum fingering tossa's

**Lookingtostart** · 05-05-12, 06:49 AM

GWS with some experience coming back, I like them to cover.

**johno35** · 05-05-12, 05:18 PM

Couldn't have been more wrong with the Swans, I didn't see the game, did they show up or was Adelaide that good?

**brettels** · 05-05-12, 07:56 PM

Tigers -9.5 @2.10 sportsbet

**Crowing Capers** · 05-05-12, 08:48 PM

Sydney certainly showed up but Adelaide were better
Sanderson got us flying 5-1

**kingsr** · 05-05-12, 10:18 PM

I was at the game, was a good contest and Adelaide were just slightly better on the night. The difference being kept to 1 goal in the first.

**Lookingtostart** · 05-06-12, 12:24 AM

I changed my mind on the Port game, I think Richmond by 13 pts. No play here anyway, footy's been too sharp this year, capping's been too close to what the bookies give.

**therealdealau** · 05-06-12, 01:25 AM

i'd like everyone to welcome back port adelaide from 2011, give them a round of applause!

**Lookingtostart** · 05-06-12, 01:39 AM

Originally posted by therealdealau

i'd like everyone to welcome back port adelaide from 2011, give them a round of applause!

What I wanted to post before about Port didn't get posted. I was already congratulating everyone for backing the Tigers before the game had started because something changed my mind. Yup, it's Port from 2011 because they have the same coach from that year!. Idiot port power board.