Afl 2012

**Coopertrooper** · 04-14-12, 08:19 AM

Yeah, it is easy to get sucked in.

Have never been much of an AFL gambler, but will start a bit from this year. I'm liking the 'points' line that I'm getting on IASbet, $2.10 for adding just 4 points to the line, think it is worth the value.

I wish the over/under markets would go up a bit earlier though. I understand them not wanting to get burnt by the weather in some cases, but you can tell within 24 hours if you need to take a cautious approach or not! Especially for games outside of Melbourne (or Tassie).

**maroona** · 04-14-12, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by brettels

Yeah, I've been betting on more matches than I usually would, it was just excitement from real footy finally being back. From now on, i will only bet what I'm comfortable with instead of having to make a play on nearly every game. That's just being a degenerate I reckon.

So if it means just one game for the round, so be it.

Haha thats like having a hangover and saying I'll never drink again, try watching a whole game without having a bet on it, its not easy

**maroona** · 04-14-12, 09:05 AM

Just with regards to totals, I've been keeping an eye on betfair to see where the public money has been going, in both the GC/essendon game and freo/lions game the overs was smashed on betfair and you'd have to think with the books as well, but the total stayed the same, they didn't move it out at all and both games went under, so its worth having a look at betfair, because its an exchange its the only real indication we have what the public is on.

**johno35** · 04-14-12, 09:34 AM

Did anyone see what happened to Courtenay Dempsey? He only scored me 6 supercoach points, hate when that happens!

**nocode1** · 04-14-12, 01:03 PM

Courtenay Dempsey was subbed off in the first quarter after hurting his hamstring

**nocode1** · 04-14-12, 01:04 PM

Taking Geelong/north over 194.5 now for 2 units

I can see this game going over 200

**johno35** · 04-14-12, 07:33 PM

I've got Hawks -28.5, over 184.5 and Cats -27.5
GL everyone

**johno35** · 04-14-12, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by nocode1

Courtenay Dempsey was subbed off in the first quarter after hurting his hamstring

Bugger, thanks for that

**Lookingtostart** · 04-14-12, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by nocode1

Taking Geelong/north over 194.5 now for 2 units

I can see this game going over 200

I like it, though I got them a little higher, Over 197.5 at bet365. North have a good avenue to score, wobbly defence, and Geelong can score anyhow.

**Lookingtostart** · 04-14-12, 09:20 PM

Anyone like Geelong to cover -25.5?

**johno35** · 04-14-12, 09:26 PM

Originally posted by Lookingtostart

Anyone like Geelong to cover -25.5?

Geelong have won 8 of the last 10 by an average of 54 points, I cant see North getting within 7 goals

**Coopertrooper** · 04-14-12, 09:42 PM

The over in the WCE/GWS game of 200.5 has been smashed in most places. By the time I looked the best I could get was $1.88! Have played it for 2 units, was 10 points under what I was expecting, think WCE will put together a nice score today.

**johno35** · 04-14-12, 09:59 PM

Yeah I looked at that over but I was worried that GWS would only kick about 6 goals, leaving the Eagles to kick about 26. Eagles have some class missing today so I'm staying away from that one

**Coopertrooper** · 04-14-12, 10:20 PM

Turns out that changed my bet slightly as I was making it and I didn't notice, it went out to 202.5, but a fairly free-flowing start is good for over backers!

**brettels** · 04-14-12, 10:29 PM

No lines or totals for me today boys! just been adding hawks and cats ML into multis! Good luck!

**johno35** · 04-14-12, 10:36 PM

Eagles percentage is going to be massive after today

**Coopertrooper** · 04-14-12, 10:37 PM

Eagles up to 9 goals and we're still in the first quarter... and GWS have somehow managed 2 of their own. Looks like the eagles will cover the over and the line.

**nocode1** · 04-14-12, 11:23 PM

I'm adding north team total over 85.5 for 1 unit

**johno35** · 04-14-12, 11:28 PM

How can GWS possibly justify playing Folau, pure marketing stunt of course but he just cant play, doesn't get to enough contests. Although I guess the ball isn't getting up there much

**brettels** · 04-14-12, 11:33 PM

Hunt took longer than 3 games to show a glimpse, folau can make it eventually.

**Coopertrooper** · 04-14-12, 11:58 PM

GWS shutting this game down... Hmmmmm.

**Coopertrooper** · 04-15-12, 01:04 AM

The money on GWS to cover the line was good in the end, the eagles had too many sore bodies.

I'm happy to get my over, might have one last go on the last game, but will make it small so that I'm well in profit for the weekend's footy action. Looking at Geelong -25.5 in a double with under 196.5, for half a unit.

**thecattery12** · 04-15-12, 01:34 AM

I have no idea how the lines come in. North haven't come close to us in the past 5 seasons and I cant see it changing. 25.5 is just ridiculous and I'm be on the -25.5 big time. The line was 30 odd last year form memory and we absolutely crushed them.

**crblahblah** · 04-15-12, 02:31 AM

North is absolutely dominating this match. Unfortunately I'm, of course, on Geelong after getting killed being on the Hawks against them last week. AFL has been tricky to bet this year.

**crblahblah** · 04-15-12, 02:48 AM

Geelong down 21 at halftime. It's going to be impossible for them to cover the spread. Aussie sports are brutal to bet on and continue to bury me. Good luck everyone on future plays.

**Coopertrooper** · 04-15-12, 03:00 AM

I think the key early is to only bet on the games which appear very clear-cut. Of course this cats/roos match would have appeared to be one of those games, but most have gone as expected, it's been the games like Freo/Geelong that have thrown up the upsets. Next week could be more of the same too, think next week might be a good time to take stock!

**thecattery12** · 04-15-12, 03:06 AM

Originally posted by thecattery12

I have no idea how the lines come in. North haven't come close to us in the past 5 seasons and I cant see it changing. 25.5 is just ridiculous and I'm be on the -25.5 big time. The line was 30 odd last year form memory and we absolutely crushed them.

argh my bias got the better of me

**crblahblah** · 04-15-12, 03:19 AM

Just need a 10 goal swing now.

**brettels** · 04-15-12, 03:19 AM

Geelong look like they have screwed me 2 weeks in a row!!!! Time to get a fukkn job

**johno35** · 04-15-12, 03:46 AM

Yeah I dont think anyone saw this coming, it does pay to be selective with your plays, but sometimes it goes the wrong way. Hawks and the over got up for me today so I'm ahead and cant complain

**Lookingtostart** · 04-15-12, 03:48 AM

I was gonna go big on Geelong, I mean, how could the magnificent Cats not cover? Then I saw the prices on pinny... thought I'd better stay away from this one. Me thinks them sharps might know something.

**nocode1** · 04-15-12, 04:00 AM

Originally posted by nocode1

Taking Geelong/north over 194.5 now for 2 units

I can see this game going over 200

**nocode1** · 04-15-12, 04:01 AM

Originally posted by nocode1

I'm adding north team total over 85.5 for 1 unit

**nocode1** · 04-15-12, 04:02 AM

Originally posted by nocode1

Hi guys, had a couple a week away with the girlfriend so didn't get to post anything last week although I did hit my multi

Hard week this week but I'm going with this multi for 1 unit

Carlton +23.5
St.kilda+23.5
port + 50.5
north +57.5

$2.08

I also like the Geelong-north total on Sunday as long as its not over 204.5

**Lookingtostart** · 04-15-12, 04:08 AM

Originally posted by nocode1