Afl 2012

**Coopertrooper** · 04-01-12, 05:44 AM

Bloody hell, was way off the mark this week. Liked both the dees and saints to have big wins, ordinary start to the year!

I have a feeling after all the overs, the unders will be good value next week if the market over-corrects, and teams react to the big scores.

**maroona** · 04-01-12, 07:29 AM

Originally posted by Coopertrooper

Bloody hell, was way off the mark this week. Liked both the dees and saints to have big wins, ordinary start to the year!

I have a feeling after all the overs, the unders will be good value next week if the market over-corrects, and teams react to the big scores.

I agree, with all the overs this weekend the books will re-assess and some unders may be value next week, some lines were way off also, i'd expect them to be a lot sharper next week, books would of got punished with all the overs hitting, public loves to back overs and favourites, looks like everyone on here had a profitable weekend

**Crowing Capers** · 04-01-12, 09:57 AM

ROUND 1
4-5 on the favs covering the line
2-7 under/overs
Leaning to punters over bookies in round 1( in my case anyway)
Agree with Maroona the books will adjust the points maybe up by goal or so next round with the way round 1 was played. Still think this will be a good play in a lot of games with the more attacking style of footy that will be played this year.

**benrama** · 04-01-12, 05:25 PM

Books are not in the habit of over-adjusting because that can equally over-expose them to people betting the other way. One round is not enough to judge whether it's a structural change to the way teams are playing or just an anomaly of round 1 - we might equally see teams adjust during the week to emphasise the pressure defense of last year again.

That said, I'm already looking to play the over in the Lions v Carlton game and think I'll have to jump on the line early.

**Gee** · 04-01-12, 07:03 PM

It happened last year.

Fatigue more of a factor in round 1 and defensive structures not fully set up yet.

I made a few mistakes last season by not adjusting and betting a few too many overs.

I can't believe you guys didn't get the port over...

What a great weekend. We all cleaned up i think!

**Gee** · 04-01-12, 10:19 PM

Here are the openers for those keeping track.

Nothing stands out at first blush... I don't think these lines will move much at all, unless there is big team news.

1. BRISBANE 3.00 +18.5 : 1.91
2. CARLTON 1.38 -18.5 : 1.91

1. ESSENDON 1.22 -27.5 : 1.91
2. PORT ADELAIDE 4.20 +27.5 : 1.91

1. SYDNEY 1.65 -7.5 : 1.91
2. FREMANTLE 2.22 +7.5 : 1.91

1. WEST COAST 1.06 -47.5 : 1.91
2. MELBOURNE 8.75 +47.5 : 1.91

1. COLLINGWOOD 1.13 -37.5 : 1.91
2. RICHMOND 5.75 +37.5 : 1.91

1. ADELAIDE 1.20 -29.5 : 1.91
2. WESTERN BULLDOGS 4.50 +29.5 : 1.91

1. NORTH MELBOURNE 1.01 -77.5 : 1.91
2. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY 15.00 +77.5 : 1.91

1. ST KILDA 1.06 -48.5 : 1.91
2. GOLD COAST 8.75 +48.5 : 1.91

1. GEELONG 2.30 +9.5 : 1.91
2. HAWTHORN 1.60 -9.5 : 1.91

**brettels** · 04-01-12, 11:06 PM

I like a couple QT lines

Carlton -5.5

West Coast -11.5

**brettels** · 04-01-12, 11:36 PM

GEE- the collingwood line sticks out to me.

**donkson** · 04-02-12, 12:41 AM

North/GWS opened at 85.5

**Gee** · 04-02-12, 01:05 AM

Wow, really Donks???

Someone absolutely pounded that in the first day then I suppose.

I don't think I'll be touching a GWS game for some time this year... I don't have a clue where they are at.

**donkson** · 04-02-12, 01:24 AM

yeah it lasted like 10 minutes.

**kingsr** · 04-02-12, 01:48 AM

Port and freo stick out at first glance

**Punter101** · 04-02-12, 02:33 AM

Scarlett gonna miss the game vs hawks

**shari91** · 04-02-12, 02:49 AM

I like that Port line too kingsr. Also like the Gold Coast but still unsure.

Going to take Port now just in case the line moves.

**Lookingtostart** · 04-02-12, 03:46 AM

Port had a close one late last year against Essendon, same ground, I think they are a better team this year, it's hard to tell where Essendon's at.

I like Lions as well, though not that confident. They have good foot speed, though so do some Carlton players.

GWS line is huge, Luke Power might be back, probably my favourite this week. Brogan might be back also, though not sure if that will make a difference. Also, that game's at Blundstone Arena (Bellerive Oval).

**kingsr** · 04-02-12, 06:44 AM

Updated Odds...

Lines have moved a little...I'm locking in PA and GWS now before they drop more.

Leaning Freo but will do more research before locking it in.

**kingsr** · 04-02-12, 06:46 AM

It's a great Idea to post the odds as soon as they are released, so we can all see the fluctuations before match starts.

**brettels** · 04-04-12, 09:10 PM

Lookingtostart what's your insight for port power this weekend? You were spot on about them last week but I am thinking it could be a one off.

**Lookingtostart** · 04-04-12, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by brettels

Lookingtostart what's your insight for port power this weekend? You were spot on about them last week but I am thinking it could be a one off.

I did not see Essendon last week, so it'll be hard for me to evaluate (qualitatively). Last weeks game may have sucked the life out of Port (they were very tired in the last quarter). What worries me is they caused too many rebounding opportunities from the same area of the ground as in their previous 4 years, which gave the Saints opportunities to score. IMO, saints should have won but they were too shit. I don't think Primus has sought to fix that problem.

Port's tackling however, was outstanding, very impressed in that department. Individual players improved, I don't think coaches have. Port had a close one late last year against Essendon, same ground, make of it what you will.

If I had to choose, I'd go with Port to cover, but I'm not betting on this one... not at this point. I wish Port got Chris Scott instead of Primus,

.

Anyone know anything about Essendon?

Edit: Just to add, Port got a free ride from the umps last week.

**Lookingtostart** · 04-04-12, 10:12 PM

Well, Brisbane and Carlton coming up today...

I really like the Lions' foot-speed, I know the Blues have some quick smalls, but Brisbane at home, younger players more experienced as well, made me bet on Lions. I think they may actually win the game. I really do like the Lions.

**kingsr** · 04-04-12, 10:19 PM

Carlton 1-39 for me... I like Bris to keep it close.

**kingsr** · 04-04-12, 10:59 PM

Carlton now -17.5 NSW TAB...I'm trying to find out WHY!?

**Domestic** · 04-04-12, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by kingsr

Carlton now -17.5 NSW TAB...I'm trying to find out WHY!?

Hmm yeah, down to 18.5 @ Centrebet now, still 20.5 @ Sportingbet and Pinnacle.

**kingsr** · 04-04-12, 11:42 PM

Weird! I cant find any info...

**therealdealau** · 04-05-12, 12:45 AM

public are starting to hit brisbane obviously

**Pride** · 04-05-12, 01:24 AM

not necessarily

**brettels** · 04-05-12, 01:42 AM

As I type this current lines for bris/carl

sportsbet 20.5

TAB(vic) 20.5

centrebet 18.5

sportingbet 18.5

pinnacle 20.5

TAB (tatts) 18.5

**kingsr** · 04-05-12, 01:46 AM

http://www.tab.com.au/Sports/Betting/PlaceFixedOddsBet.aspx?State=2&LocationCode=0&Competition=102&MarketCode=464&MeetingType=1

Best odds for those looking to back Carlton.

**brettels** · 04-05-12, 01:50 AM

Originally posted by Lookingtostart

I did not see Essendon last week, so it'll be hard for me to evaluate (qualitatively). Last weeks game may have sucked the life out of Port (they were very tired in the last quarter). What worries me is they caused too many rebounding opportunities from the same area of the ground as in their previous 4 years, which gave the Saints opportunities to score. IMO, saints should have won but they were too shit. I don't think Primus has sought to fix that problem.

Port's tackling however, was outstanding, very impressed in that department. Individual players improved, I don't think coaches have. Port had a close one late last year against Essendon, same ground, make of it what you will.

If I had to choose, I'd go with Port to cover, but I'm not betting on this one... not at this point. I wish Port got Chris Scott instead of Primus,

.

Anyone know anything about Essendon?

Edit: Just to add, Port got a free ride from the umps last week.

Yeah, bit risky with the travel after having the life sucked out of them as you mentioned. I guess the total will have to be the individual play again.

I was supporting North to beat essendon but didn't watch the full game and never caught up through the week.

**Pride** · 04-05-12, 01:51 AM

pinny juicing brisbane and not budging.

**brettels** · 04-05-12, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by kingsr

http://www.tab.com.au/Sports/Betting...&MeetingType=1

Best odds for those looking to back Carlton.

I always thought that the TABCORPS Vic and NSW would have exactly the same lines and odds. Now i know they don't.

**brettels** · 04-05-12, 01:59 AM

Brisbane vs Carlton

Picks

Carlton -20.5

Carlton QT line -5.5

over/under 191.5 OVER

SCALE of CONFIDENCE:

**Balco10** · 04-05-12, 02:05 AM

Brisbane Broncos???

**kingsr** · 04-05-12, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by brettels

I always thought that the TABCORPS Vic and NSW would have exactly the same lines and odds. Now i know they don't.

Look closely...its not the 'line' market, its called 'extra line'...i think its wrong!

**kingsr** · 04-05-12, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by Balco10

Brisbane Broncos???

8 ball of coke?