AFL and NRL futures plays

[benrama]

Starting a thread about this to get some feedback.

AFL Futures

Play: 1X Sydney to win at $67

Current odds offered at Pinnacle to win the premiership are as follows:

Collingwood -130
St. Kilda +3000
Geelong +405
Hawthorn +505
Carlton +1425
Sydney +6600
Essendon +8250
West Coast +1625

To me the clear value play here is on Sydney at $67, with the other value play potentially being to play a "Geelong not to win" line, of probably $1.20 or so (as I give them less much less than 20% chance of winning).

The most likely 1st week finals are:

A) 1st Qualifying Final
1st Collingwood
4th West Coast

(B) 2nd Qualifying Final
2nd Geelong
3rd Hawthorn

(C) 1st Elimination Final
5th Carlton
8th Essendon

(D) 2nd Elimination Final
6th Sydney
7th St Kilda

Let's say that Pies and Hawthorn win, and so do Carlton. As much as I'm a St Kilda fan I'd have to say Sydney will win with home ground advantage.

That leaves the following:

(E) 1st Semi Final
West Coast
Carlton

(F) 2nd Semi Final
Geelong
Sydney

Now, Sydney just beat Geelong at their home ground so Sydney will hardly feel like the Cats are invincible. Also, if you look at some key stat categories, and see where the teams are in the league (Sydney vs Geelong), taken from http://www.pro-stats.com.au/psw/web/...1&ts=TA&sr=12:

Tackles: 1 vs 13
Clearances: 1 vs 16
Contested possessions: 1 vs 7
Inside 50's: 7 vs 2

Sydney is dominant in tackles, clearances and contested possessions and Geelong dominant in inside 50's. What stats would you rather be ahead in come finals time? I'd venture to guess the Inside 50's stat is exacerbated too by the Cats propensity to blow poor teams out of the water, whereas that's not Sydney's style.

Where Sydney let's itself down is in kicking accuracy - they would have beaten the Pies at the SCG if they had their kicking boots on and they would have put St Kilda away a long time before they did two weeks ago.

So if Sydney can repeat their performance against the Cats, and assume WCE win, then you'd have the following:

(G) 1st Preliminary Final
Collingwood
Sydney

(H) 2nd Preliminary Final
WCE
Hawthorn

Beating Collingwood will be no mean feat, but who's looked most likely to do so this year? I'd actually argue Sydney over Geelong, even though Geelong beat the Pies by 3 points. When Sydney played the Pies they had 34 scoring shots to the Pies 23, whereas when against the Cats, Pies had 25 scoring shots to the Cats 17. This doesn't tell the full story of the game, but is a killer stat.

If the Swans could pull off the unlikely you'd be sitting on a 67:1 team going into the grand final with a chance to probably hedge at not too far off even odds.

So for me this situation warrants an automatic play for value.

[benrama]

NRL Futures

Copying this partly from my post in MrXYZ's thread:

Play: 1X NQ to win at $21.25

Current odds at Pinnacle to win are:

St. George Dragons +500
Wests Tigers +485
South Sydney Rabbitohs +4500
Melbourne Storm +275
Brisbane Broncos +425
New Zealand Warriors +1225
Manly Sea Eagles +455
Newcastle Knights +8500
North Qld Cowboys +2025

The likely first round matchups in the finals are as follows:

1 vs 8: Storm vs Knights
2 vs 7: Sea Eagles vs Cowboys
3 vs 6: Broncos vs Warriors
4 vs 5: Tigers vs Dragons

Now, Sea Eagles are quite likely to be without Stewart and Lussick for their game against the Cowboys, and while NQ also lost their rookie second rower Sims, I think they can cover for that better than Manly can for their outs. Also - with the finals now being taken away from the suburban grounds the advantages for a team like Manly have diminished in a home game that is not at Brookvale - look what happened against the Tigers.

If the Cowboys could beat the Sea Eagles, and Storm, Brisbane and Tigers win, then we'd have these semi-finals:

NQ vs Saints
Tigers vs Eagles

Playing the most out of form top 8 side for a chance at a prelim final? Not a bad position to be in at this stage.

If NQ can win that they play Melbourne for a place in the grand final, who they have already beaten this season.

I'm going to do some more research on key stats before locking this one in, but it appears the value play at the moment. Thoughts?

[binomial]

Sydney have looked half hearted in several games this year to me. When they have tried they looked decent, but they lack class and i don't really like their chances against the teams above them. With the home final against St Kilda they may play at ANZ where I would make it about 50/50 even though they won against them a few rounds ago.

However, agree that $67 looks value.

Quite like the NQLD bet.

GL.

[hawley]

Cowboys inability to win consistently on the road makes them a no play for me.

If they had the 4th spot and a home final I would maybe play them because there is a chance they get a roll on from that first game.

I think Manly will deal with them, especially with Thurston still less than 100%.

See how he goes this weekend but if he isn't playing at his best there is a huge amount of pressure on Bowen to deliver.

[s2230011]

I am not a fan of the cowboys, they travel badly and I think they have run their race already. After what I saw on Friday night, both Manly and Storm are beatable, I think Manly is over rated, they deserve where they are but seriously on Friday night every bounce of the ball went their way, and I cant get that poor performance they had against the Dragons. I think best value would be on the Broncos, Dragons and Tigers. Not that putting on all three is a good idea, but maybe Dragons and Tigers is a good idea, they may well play each other in the first round and survive on opposite sides of the draw after that.

[benrama]

@binomial, agreed that Sydney have looked half hearted at times, but they do get up for the big teams. They beat WCE, they beat Geelong, they should have beaten the Pies. Their performance against Hawthorn was their worst outing against the top sides, and Carlton are their bogey side, but they are quite possibly not playing either of these teams en route to a grand final. Not playing the home final at the SCG is a huge blow though, agree with that. The SCG is the Swans killer weapon, and ANZ may as well be a neutral venue. Having said that, St Kilda's game is suited to smaller grounds like Etihad, and it was ANZ where the Swans played Collingwood.

@hawley, I would agree with you about their road woes, but don't you think home advantage somewhat disappears when Manly are not playing at Brookvale? I think I might hold off on NQ for a full unit because I think they lose this weekend to the Warriors so the odds on them winning will rise. If they win of course of the opposite will happen, so I'll do the same thing as I do with stocks - stagger my buying, 0.5 unit now, 0.5 unit later.

Any other value plays you guys see?

[hawley]

the home advantage for Manly is definitely weakened with them moving away from Brookie, but my concern is less to do with Manly's home advantage and more to do with NQLD average record playing in Sydney. In saying that they have some of the most exciting players in the game and on their day no team can stop them.

I think Manly will be able to grind out a win against them though.

I could quite honestly see the Tigers really rolling through the playoffs - they had the Titans last night and Benji was dangerous everytime he touched the ball, the Sharks next week and then possibly the Dragons who I think they will fancy themselves against.

They are a team like NQLD who if they get momentum can really make a run at the final. I dont really consider any of those +400 / +500 teams genuine value like the Cowboys future is.

Lets cross the Knights and the Rabbitohs off that list now. That leaves two teams - NQLD and the Warriors who present any genuine value to me.
Neither team I believe are legitimate contenders now they dont have home finals.

[kingsr]

The winner of both grand finals is coming from the top 4 as you see it now. Don't waste your money on anything else guys.

[benrama]

It just seems strange to me that Warriors are $12 (ish) when they haven't beaten Brisbane, Manly or Melbourne - though admittedly they've kept it close. Whereas NQ who have beaten Brisbane, Manly and Melbourne, are $21. I realise home and away is a factor here, but NQ did beat Brisbane on their home ground.

If NQ lose this weekend they get a better draw (in my opinion they'd rather play a depleted Manly than full strength in form Tigers), and if they lose they have a good shot at a 2nd chance.

The biggest question mark for me is defense, NQ have allowed the most points of any of the top 8 teams, and they can't always rely on outscoring the opposition.

[benrama]

And hawley, I have definitely considered the Tigers, but for the me value on them has already gone. A first finals match up with the Saints would be an epic clash, and if they got through that they'd likely face the Warriors (or, if Cowboys win, Manly), and then Melbourne.

It's Melbourne I think they'd really struggle with, because they will grind it out and Tigers are still very erratic. Yes Benji was brilliant last night but he also threw an intercept, and the Tigers had some very unnecessary lapses in concentration leading to poor ball control and knock ons. In a way they are the team you least want to face and most want to face.

[IDunno89]

Warriors beat Melbourne earlier in the year. Lost to Brisbane by 1

[hawley]

Blair will miss the rest of the season if the finals go as they should.

5 match ban. so this week, round 1, then the following two games provided they make it that far.

Not sure if it really means anything for the Storm, I think he is grossly overrated .

[IDunno89]

Yeh I don't think he is a huge loss for the storm... Agree a tad overated

[Lookingtostart]

Benrama, the swans in the past two years or at least this year have played well at ANZ and not as well at the SCG, the opposite of what it used to be. They're not scared of metal spikes no more

But everything else I agree with, good write up.

[benrama]

IDunno - you're right Warriors did beat Melbourne, watched the Brissy game too they played a really solid game. I'm back to thinking they have some value as well at their current price, just not sure they are mentally up for finals football.

LTS - agreed ANZ has been Swan friendly of late, I still think they'd prefer to be at the SCG but I've removed it as an important factor. Actually hoping we get the ANZ game should be a cracker.

[IDunno89]

Totally agree... They have a fairly young team that lack finals experience... If they fully click for 4 weeks they could be dangerous.... I seriously think the finals can be won by 6 teams all depends on how they handle it and if they can play there best on the day....