It's basically a 2 man race between that Vanegaard (not sure of the spelling but close enough) going off at around +105, and that Russian dude Pogacar +130. Pogacar is coming off an injury so it's not like we can see his form, but the Vanagaard dude seems like he is ready to defend.
This year's course is a little odd to as the Mountains are sprinkled in all along the route where as they are usually clustered together Ed.
All in all I like the Vanguard dude to win, but the odds. Don't really pay, so I might take the Russian dude Pogacar to come out pedaling hard right off the bat to try and put the defending champ back under pressure to try and make up the difference in the last week where it will be difficult for either to do.
Given the terrain not being conducive to pure sprinters this year. I also like the Vinegarden's teammate Vanaart or Van Ardvark or whatever his name is. He has the power to get over the mountains ad place well in the pack sprints. If Pogacar proves to still have a nagging wrist injury that believe it or not is more serious to a bike rider than you may think, Vangegaarden will run away with the overall, and the team will be more active in the green jersey competition.
I hate to take the chalk on my green jersey selection but I just think the course is very tough for the sprinters and when they roll into Paris this year, aside from needing a weapon to beat back the protesting public calling this an all white sport, which it is, there will be few riders left to actually sprint it out on the final day.
I wish I could get this steroid data. It would be nice to see what teams are partnered with what "sports medicine" company. Of course this is where the "training" comes in and whomever has the best training wins of course.
I wonder if there are any books taking bets on protesting activities delaying the race in any way. This year seems pretty ripe for this type of stuff with a war going on a very unpopular leader in that Macaroni guy, environmentalist and racial tensions are running high in the land of cheese and wine.
Kind of disappointed in the Vanaart dude this morning. 2 Taylor made stages slipped through his fingers and now that Geen jersey bets odds are reflecting the action.
Today we will have the Mark Cavendish show as he is going to be all about getting the record so he can retire from the race and cycling in general. He wants to get this over with before he has to drag his ass over any more Mountains.
Well it happened again when Pogacar and his team did some stupid shyt yesterday, and gave Vingegaard ( I think that spelling may be correct) the opportunity to take the reigns. Sure as shyt Vanguard or whatever took full advantage by extracting over a minute on the Pogacar. Pogacar needs to find a better manager. His team wasted 3/4 of the day controlling the race while Jumbo- Visma, Vineguarden's team laid back and waited until the entire UAE team petered out. Pogacar's only chance now is to force Jumbo - Visma to control the race and get some dudes in the break aways. This is a large task because Jumbo hasn't shown any interest in controlling the race. Now that they have the yellow that may change. Hopefully today UAE doesn't go on the attack unless conditions present themselves. Make Jumbo exert some energy today and perhaps Pogacar can extract some time back on the final climb to the finish.
Today for Stage 6 the jumbo Visma squad returned the favor that the UAE team gave them yesterday. They went all out and tried to stamp out the UAE team and more importantly Pogacar, and Pogacar was able to make them pay to the the tune of 28 seconds. He is still 25 seconds out of the lead, but the Jumbo squad had dudes all in the break away and making the pace until Vingegaard tried to go for the kill shot at the end climb only to get punked when Pogacar made a surprise attack with 3km to go and never looked back. Tomorrow and Saturday are mostly rest days with a possibility of wreck in the end sprint. With the way Van Aart had to work for Vingegaard today, he's not going to have any sprinting legs for the green jersey. It is looking like the Phillips dude has a strangle hold on that competition after taking 2 stages in a row mid week.
Yesterday, 'ole Pogacar was able to take 9 seconds back and now he sits just 17 seconds back of Vingegarrd for the overall lead. Today is a rest day, and Tuesday - Thursday's course doesn't offer much help for the Pogacar to gain any time, but next Friday - Sunday have all mountain top finishes so that will be the next chance for Pogacar. After that the final week has plenty of chances to either gain time or blow it as the battle between the top 2 riders will surely wage on.
Well nobody cares but in about 1.5 hours the battle between Pogacar and Vingegaard will resume with just 17 seconds between them in the overall. This is the start of the end after a few rest days. The next 7 stages have 5 significant battles that will decide the fate of the race and more importantly my bet for this year's overall winner.
On Saturday, Pogacar kind of got screwed by the motor bike television coverage when he was trying to attack Vingegaard in the last 200 meters of a climb that has a 4 second differential time bonus between the 1st and 2nd place rider to get to the top of the climb. As it ends up, that was a 8 second swing and even though Pogacar was able to beat Vingegaard to the finish line for another 2 second time bonus, he ended up losing a second overall to bring the deficit to 10 seconds. This was unfortunate because Pogacar should be just 2 seconds behind the Vingegaard at this point. There is a time trial tomorrow that will surely shake things around a little bit, then 2 other chances for the Pogacar before the ceremonial last stage that will end the race.
Today was the "Race of Truth",which is an individual time trial. In today's episode Vingegaard smoked Pogacar by a 1.30 plus time advantage. He must have the better drugs for a complete beat down like that. The race is basically over, there is no way Pogacar is making up that kind of time with essentially 2 stages left. There is a stage every day until Sunday, but in reality it's over. Vingegaard only needs to make it to Paris and have his team protect him for now on.
Today Pogacar totally fell apart and I can't say that I am surprised. I've seen it before, when a rider comes to grips that they aren't going to win, usually the next day they just don't have the legs for it and they end up losing a boat load of time. Today it was Pogacar's turn he lost over 5 minutes today alone on a brutal day of climbing. He is still in 2nd place with his teammate in 3rd, but its all over today. Put a fork in the tour nothing else to see.
Hopefully the next 2 days we see heavy rain so my hopes of a giant pile up at the end of the race happens. Bike racing carnage is pretty fun to watch.
Then on Saturday, watch for old Pogacar to try and save face by going out with a real strong ride after getting dropped today. Depending on his odds, it may be a good play. Then on Sunday nothing happens so no need to watch unless it rains again.
This year's tour was really allot closer that the final outcome will show, but in the end Vingegaard has better drugs than the Pogacar. Vingegaard's dominance on the hign mountain stages continues as he just proves to be a freakin mountain goat.
Just like I touted a few days ago, Pogacar came out and won the stage. Not bad paying +160 on the day, so that takes the sting out of the +130 overall bet I'm gonna lose tomorrow. All in all not bad this year as I always thought Vingegaard was going to inch out Pogacar, but Pogacars +130 odds gave me a reason to try the underdog.
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