Why Tiger Woods Is A Bad Price At +250....Even If He Wins
Anyone thinking of backing Tiger Woods for The British Open this week may want to consider two things:
Firstly his price, I'm seeing nothing better than +250.
If you're willing to bet at +250 or less, here are some facts you might want to know first:
13 British Opens played in,of which he's won 3 which makes 23% which means his price should be 4.3-1 (excluding juice)
He's won 28% of majors contested in and lost 72% which means he should be 3.5-1(ex juice)
He's had 68 PGA Tour wins from 245 Starts for 27.7% which means his price should be 3.6-1(ex juice)
His 2009 post knee surgery record is P9, W3 for 33% which means his price should be 3-1 (ex juice)
Before this years Masters he won the week before at the Arnild Palmer and then went on to finish 6th in the Masters.
Before this years US Open he won the week before at The memorial and then went on to finish 6th in the Open.
Before this years British Open he's just won at Congressional and then went to the British Open and finished...? Sixth maybe?
You can make what you want of the above info, I'm just putting it out there, in my opinion there is absoultely no edge or value in playing Tiger at +250 or less, just my opinion but that doesn't mean he won't win and I wouldn't be surprised if he won by six shots. I also wouldn't be surprised if he finished....sixth.
My second point is there is a way around the whole 'Will Tiger Win Debate' by making your bets without him in the field and I think this is the play for a number of reasons.
Firstly, if you're willing to play against Woods there's as much value in playing without him in the field as there is with him in it. For instance, Sergio Garcia is 18-1 without Woods and is 25-1 WITH Woods, so you lose 7 points by playing without him but if you're playing Win and Top 6 (99% of Euro books are playing Top 6 instead of Top 5 this week as a 'bonus.') you now have an extra place....if Woods is placed 1-6 and you're seventh you get paid for top 6. You also get paid for the win if Woods wins and you're second. The value in those scenarios far exceeds the perceived 'value' in Garcia at 25-1 in my opinon because the only way you can lose money is if Garcia wins outright or Woods is out of the Top 6, and both those scenarios are unlikely in my opinion.
Just my thoughts, good luck with whomever and however you decide to play.
Firstly his price, I'm seeing nothing better than +250.
If you're willing to bet at +250 or less, here are some facts you might want to know first:
13 British Opens played in,of which he's won 3 which makes 23% which means his price should be 4.3-1 (excluding juice)
He's won 28% of majors contested in and lost 72% which means he should be 3.5-1(ex juice)
He's had 68 PGA Tour wins from 245 Starts for 27.7% which means his price should be 3.6-1(ex juice)
His 2009 post knee surgery record is P9, W3 for 33% which means his price should be 3-1 (ex juice)
Before this years Masters he won the week before at the Arnild Palmer and then went on to finish 6th in the Masters.
Before this years US Open he won the week before at The memorial and then went on to finish 6th in the Open.
Before this years British Open he's just won at Congressional and then went to the British Open and finished...? Sixth maybe?
You can make what you want of the above info, I'm just putting it out there, in my opinion there is absoultely no edge or value in playing Tiger at +250 or less, just my opinion but that doesn't mean he won't win and I wouldn't be surprised if he won by six shots. I also wouldn't be surprised if he finished....sixth.
My second point is there is a way around the whole 'Will Tiger Win Debate' by making your bets without him in the field and I think this is the play for a number of reasons.
Firstly, if you're willing to play against Woods there's as much value in playing without him in the field as there is with him in it. For instance, Sergio Garcia is 18-1 without Woods and is 25-1 WITH Woods, so you lose 7 points by playing without him but if you're playing Win and Top 6 (99% of Euro books are playing Top 6 instead of Top 5 this week as a 'bonus.') you now have an extra place....if Woods is placed 1-6 and you're seventh you get paid for top 6. You also get paid for the win if Woods wins and you're second. The value in those scenarios far exceeds the perceived 'value' in Garcia at 25-1 in my opinon because the only way you can lose money is if Garcia wins outright or Woods is out of the Top 6, and both those scenarios are unlikely in my opinion.
Just my thoughts, good luck with whomever and however you decide to play.