Breeder's Cup Classics

[Dark Horse]

Dirt Mile - first impression of contenders
Shackleford
Caleb's Posse
The Factor
Wilburn
Tapizar

Still need a closer look at Caleb's Posse. Race could have value with 7/2 The Factor and 4/1 Wilburn not at their best.

[nomar122977]

i like trappe shot and calebs posse in that race

[Dexter]

are we looking fast and firm tomorrow and saturday?

[str]

are we looking fast and firm tomorrow and saturday?

Was raining there and the turf training was halted around 9:30 ( not uncommon)

They are calling for 1/4-1/2 inch of rain through today. Partly sunny Friday and Sunny on Saturday. Temp 46-60 both days.

Main track will probably be fine.
Turf course ? Will just have to wait and see tomorrow AM.

Will be interesting to see if the track was graded yesterday for Saturday or they will wait . Can't grade mud so probably not able to grade after today's card which would have been the best option.
Following today's results will probably answer that question.

[Dark Horse]

About speed figures. I don't think Beyers conversion for mud works. Uncle Mo ran 118 last month, and Jackson Bend (runs in BC Sprint), the runner up in that race, ran a 112. Both their best numbers. The mud made 'm fly... So the 'solution' is simple. Just as I skip races in the mud, I may as well toss out all speed figures from muddy tracks. Would be refreshing if the mud figures were officially replaced by 'not a clue'.

[str]

About speed figures. I don't think Beyers conversion for mud works. Uncle Mo ran 118 last month, and Jackson Bend (runs in BC Sprint), the runner up in that race, ran a 112. Both their best numbers. The mud made 'm fly... So the 'solution' is simple. Just as I skip races in the mud, I may as well toss out all speed figures from muddy tracks. Would be refreshing if the mud figures were officially replaced by 'not a clue'.

Use the speed/track variant for starters. Then see how well the horse has done in the mud and how well the horse is bred for the mud. All of that does not need to jive necessarily( like a Danzig or A P Indy that seemingly does not care for the off track)
but it gives you clarity especially if the horse loves it or hates it. Then, see if it was a major day of racing, such as breeders cup prep Saturday. This tells you a lot. It tells you that the track is not necessarily as fast as it really is because all the top horses are running that day.
Conversely, find a horse that runs a high number on a tuesday/wednesday , now you have something.
I sense frustration Dark Horse.
Don't get frustrated. Keep working and figure out the details.
You will get where you want to be . I have no doubt.

[Dark Horse]

Updated to 'no-mud speed figures'... Canceled in case of muddy or sloppy track.

I love a lot of horse... :
Flat Out 113 - 'A lot of horse' rating
Havre De Grace 111 - Another 'lot of horse' rating
Headache 100 - connects, but enough to outrun this field?
Drosselmeyer 94

A strong jockey rating is somewhat secondary, but can win a race (a clean trip = no loss of momentum):
So You Think #? - best jockey rating... But no read on speed.
Ruler On Ice 101
Prayer for Relief 98
Ice Box 94

Two horses 'in neutral':
Rattlesnake Bridge 98
Uncle Mo 105 - does not connect, but still a fast horse...

And the rest:
Game On Dude 102 - not connecting
Stay Thirsty 101 - a red flag
To Honor And Serve 100 - another red flag

That's it. Done with this race. Time to put finishing touches on Dirt Mile. Good luck to all. Hoping for good weather.

[Dark Horse]

Use the speed/track variant for starters. Then see how well the horse has done in the mud and how well the horse is bred for the mud. All of that does not need to jive necessarily( like a Danzig or A P Indy that seemingly does not care for the off track)
but it gives you clarity especially if the horse loves it or hates it. Then, see if it was a major day of racing, such as breeders cup prep Saturday. This tells you a lot. It tells you that the track is not necessarily as fast as it really is because all the top horses are running that day.
Conversely, find a horse that runs a high number on a tuesday/wednesday , now you have something.
I sense frustration Dark Horse.
Don't get frustrated. Keep working and figure out the details.
You will get where you want to be . I have no doubt.

Thanks str. The speed figures seem a puzzle all to themselves. I know where to start developing a scale now. The fog is gone. Back to work.

[Dark Horse]

The Dirt Mile

A bunch of speed horses that will go to the front early and probably set a hot pace. The Factor, Shackleford, Irrefutable, and Tapizar all like to be at or near the front, and there's a good chance that Tres Borrachos will join them there. That leaves three stalkers in Wilburn, Jersey Town, and Trappe Shot, and one closer in Caleb's Posse.

Shackleford gets my lot of horse rating. A return to Preakness form.
Caleb's Posse ? - I don't have a good read on this horse. He'll either be right there, or not at all. Leaning not at all, but could be very wrong. I have a feeling the speed runs away with this race. If not, he may win.
Tapizar - I doubt Tapizar has enough, but a green rating just the same.
Tres Borrachos - Similar to Tapizar.

An interesting race with quite a few good horses that may not have their best performance:
The Factor
Jersey Town
Irrefutable

Little risky to put two of the prerace favorites in red, but may add value:
Trappe Shot - not connecting
Wilburn - red flagged


Speed figures in the fridge.

[Dark Horse]

1) Caleb's Posse
2) Shackleford
3) Tres Borrachos

[goblue24]

Nice call on the Dirt Mile. How are you going to bet the Classic? Will you be throwing some of your top picks in an exacta?

[Dark Horse]

Thinking about exotics, but depends on tote board.

[Dark Horse]

Made a few mistakes in the Classic. They are noted. First of all, Game On Dude is a much better horse than I gave him credit for.

Flat Out was in the clear and getting into his powerful home stretch when another horse (Havre de Grace...) swerved into his path, forcing a huge sideways move. Too much of a momentum killer. He had no shot after that. Not a clean trip, so not handicapped good enough. Big fields make clean trips harder to find and jockeys more important.

I do have questions about some of the squeeze moves that jockeys get away with. Wasn't on yesterday's race, but favorite #3 Turbulent Descent was basically beaten at the start, because the #5 horse forced the #4 into his path. The #5 horse even ended up winning that race. Not blaming it on that, though. As long as those moves are within the rules, it's up to the handicapper to identify red flags.

Pissed off about this race, but glad with the new info it uncovered. Should result in better red flagging down the road.

All in all a great year in horse racing. Not a lost race. Either won or learned something new... Once again many thanks to str for providing invaluable insight along the way.

I have a big speed project lined up for the winter months, revolving around an adjusted idea as to what speed is. Still checking the basic outlines to make sure it makes any sense at all. lol

[SHADYLANKY]

Congrats to anyone who made any real money on Sat's card. I won a few bucks Fri then lost a few more than that Sat. But I took it pretty easy so no sweat. Again if you bet Sat on more than on race and won.

[Dark Horse]

Just saw in the video of the Classic that Flat Out tried to avoid the whip of the jockey next to him. Ramon Dominguez on Havre de Grace almost hit him in the head/eye with a very wide swing. This was just when Flat Out was gaining momentum in the stretch. Flat Out reacted violently and bumped into the horse next to him on the other side.

Edit - it was not Dominguez's fault. If anyone was at fault it was Solis for getting into harm's way (see str's explanation in his Q&A thread). Makes perfect sense now.

[unusialsusp5]

you and str should move in together so you can discuss all your inept strategies over breakfast, lunch, dinner and bedtime. do you really box 5 horses in an exacta? if you do that speaks volumes about your lack of betting knowledge.

[Dark Horse]

Ok, little piss ant, what is it that you want? My admission that I don't know anything about betting? Fine. You got it. Anything else I can do for You?

Please stick around for comical relief. Unus-i-al suspect... Really? lol

[unusialsusp5]

read some of your ridiculous threads (what a waste of time on your part) believe you escaped from the think tank which explains a lot. talk about over analyis, you take the cake. you and the maryland bird brain should be writing a column somewhere. which horses saddle slipped in the breeders cup. make sure you make a note on that for next time they run. how any of this is useful is beyond my comprehension since not many of these horses will ever face each other again. get a clue.

[dumbmoney]

Hey unusialsusp5, horse racing is all about analysis. Thats probably the part about it that I like the most. If you want to just randomly bet on horses you're going to lose a lot of money in the long run. What's it to you how much someone analyzes the race. Especially when its on point seems to pay off. If you did a $2 tri box on his top 4 $24 would have returned $2200 not a bad ROI.

[dumbmoney]

^^ I meant $48 would have returned $2200. Still not bad. If you played them the way he laid them out and off one position every $12 would have returned $1100.

[unusialsusp5]

not to be a wise guy to you dumbmoney but if it's the breeders cup classic you are referring to i don't see where he picked it. he liked flat out the best with that has been jockey alex solis. he hated game on dude. no way he hit it with his inept analysis (actually creates his own speed ratings for what reason i can't figure out) please show the thread that has his top 4. i can't find it. he overthinks everything and ends up confusing even himself. so what if havre de grace cut off flat out, how is that going to help in a future race that will never be run. i lose like everyone else including the very dark horse and his buddy str. i trust beyer speed ratings rather than this amateur hack. i wish i could book his bets but i'm sure he is as clean as a whistle. produce the thread and i take all the criticism of him and that ex-trainer back in spades. i can show you how to have a good day at the simulcast center without doing all this insane analysis. it involves identifying playable races and throwing out the bad ones. analyzing a race after it has been run in order to pick a future race in which only a couple of the same horses are in it seems moot.

[Dark Horse]

You're absolutely right. You've got the angles, and there's not a penny of profit in this thread, or any future threads I may start. So your passing by here is a complete waste of time. Thank you for your constructive insights. Anything else you would like to hear?

[unusialsusp5]

not from you since you and just about eveyone else botched the classic. why you waste your time mishmashing and misleading people with your prognostications on every feature race in the land is beyond me. i know your patronizing but why are you trying to convince people you actually know anything when you really know racing is a crap shoot for the most part. people actually believe you are onto something with your babbling about wind, saddle slips, interference, mud, rain, snow, jockey ineptitude, horses eating habits, (mostly prompted by str, your guru). please by all means post your picks without going into explicit detail for those folks who seem to need it. it's time you got to work on the clark handicap at churchill i believe next week. watch all the replays and devise your own speed index's and continue to confuse everyone including yourself.

[Dark Horse]

I suggest you read the thread instead of assume to know what's in it. In this thread I'm the student, by no means an expert. And I gradually developed a method that picked more winners/value picks than losers. I will continue to be a student, and am grateful that str offered to be a mentor to those interested in his knowledge. I'm also appreciative of you, as example of how not to treat others. I have no malice towards you. If anything I feel slightly sorry for you, because you're the one that has to live with you. You're extremely immature. That's the only criticism you'll hear from me. And it's also the last word you'll get from me. Good luck to you.

[unusialsusp5]

this is a horse race "betting" forum. not a re-hash of what went wrong with a race you selected that has already been run. that has no bearing on a future race. str's generous contributions are geared more toward horse ownership and training. he has no insights on wagering on the sport. you cannot translate what happened in the past to the future in this sport. too many factors involved to analyze by paying attention to a dropped whip or wind speed in a previous race. just because a jockey interfered with a horse in his previous race has no bearing on his next race even if all the same horses are in it. basically, take your color coded picks and speed index's to your kindergarten class because that's where your useless information belongs.

[dumbmoney]

I was referring the his post on the dirt mile above. Post #79. His analysis was spot on in that race.

http://www.sbnation.com/2011/11/5/2540602/breeders-cup-2011-results-calebs-posse-dominates-the-dirt-mile

No one is going to win every race. And I agree there are a ton of random factors that can change the outcome. But you can try to give yourself every edge by looking at past races, and analyzing the matchup. If that's not your style then fine, do whatever works for you. But you are on a forum dedicated to horse racing analysis. Seems kind of silly to berate people for analyzing horse races.

[unusialsusp5]

no, it's a forum dedicated to horse race "betting". not analyzing what happened in a prior race. if this dark horse guy who has no money and lives in his mother's basement and some unemployed ex-trainer str want to re-hash everything that they think happened then let them. i don't care. there is no way analyzing what happened can be useful in a future race, since none of them will meet again. next time you go to the track make sure you walk over to the backstretch and bring a wind gauge with you to measure wind speed. what a crock. these two couldn't find their way to the parking lot of a racetrack, never mind actually make a concrete selection on a race. yes, i was tough on them and it was unjustified. but reading their threads (especially str) is laughable.

[str]

no, it's a forum dedicated to horse race "betting". not analyzing what happened in a prior race. if this dark horse guy who has no money and lives in his mother's basement and some unemployed ex-trainer str want to re-hash everything that they think happened then let them. i don't care. there is no way analyzing what happened can be useful in a future race, since none of them will meet again. next time you go to the track make sure you walk over to the backstretch and bring a wind gauge with you to measure wind speed. what a crock. these two couldn't find their way to the parking lot of a racetrack, never mind actually make a concrete selection on a race. yes, i was tough on them and it was unjustified. but reading their threads (especially str) is laughable.

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[unusialsusp5]

yes, i think they mean future races which you really can't discuss because it all happens so fast and you ususally cannot get the proper info until about 1 hr before they start each day. that is what i have been trying to hammer home. there is some credibilty if 2-3 or more horses are coming out of a common race and something happened which might have some bearing on today's race. certainly the weather won't be the same and probably there will be a jockey or post position change, so it is usually a fresh situation each time, so dwelling on what happened previously more than likely doesn't matter. and these two do dwell and dwell on what happened previously instead of figuring what will happen today.

[Dark Horse]

Anyway.

My next thread will be about a speed figures project. I'm studying Brohamer's excellent book on pace, but remain with the same question. How do these past figures apply to the present race? The answer is that they don't. My focus in this thread was primarily on the form of the day. I'm happy with the early results and will continue to improve this method. Along the way I learned that most top horses, not counting legends like Secretariat, are much closer in speed potential than the story suggests. The story is written after the fact, by those who's job it is to write stories, and focuses naturally on horses on good days. Horses of the same capacity that didn't run on good days are quickly forgotten. That, perhaps sobering, insight to me is the foundation upon which to conduct an experiment with speed figures.

On a sidenote, I'm always interested in constructive criticism, but time is too precious to waste on thread crashers, so from hereon they go on automatic ignore.

[unusialsusp5]

you'll be happy to know i've surrendered. post away to your hearts content. no interference from me. i want to see your clark handicap selections and will not comment on them, i promise. str has put me in my place, which will be not here.

[cecil127]

time is too precious to waste on thread crashers, so from hereon they go on automatic ignore.

you're so much more ahead of the game with that said Dark Horse. one thing ive learned over the years is that there are people out there who arent happy till they're pissin' in someone elses wheaties. (and it must be a SAD existence,eh?) we just happen to have our own angry lil man right here at the sbr horse forum. lucky us.
ill be at chester if anyones looking to discuss these things further in detail.

[Dark Horse]

Yeah, not sure exactly what his beef was, but I noticed that str, in his thread, turned him through patience and kindness. And he thinks he's not a horse whisperer. lol

Horse racing is far too beautiful a sport to get sucked into negativity. At least he was honest enough with himself to snap out of his negative self-hypnosis. So... moving on. No harm done.

(Changed my mind about topic on speed figures. Everybody will have their own way of using them. Working on mine. Promising, but too technical to discuss in public.)

[scratbandit]

Dark horse keep up with the good research as I have learned a ton from it. As a beginner with 25 years in the buisness I learn new things everyday.. Thanks for your insight.

[Dark Horse]

Thanks for the kind words. It means a lot. The project is definitely continuing. Not quite sure yet what shape or form it will take. Just trying to stay receptive towards what it is I'm supposed to learn next.