Breeder's Cup Classics

Dark Horse · 07-29-11, 04:02 AM

The Haskell.
Eight horses will be racing this Sunday, with the winner taking home $600,000. In the field are Preakness and Belmont winners Shackleford and Ruler On Ice.

Horse #1 - Coil. Has a lot going for him. No ML yet, but one of my two picks to win. Another Baffert/Martin Garcia combo.
Horse #2 - Joe Vann. Outside shot.
Horse #3 - Pants on Fire. Doesn't have enough.
Horse #4 - Concealed Identity. I don't see it. No need to conceal.
Horse #5 - Shackleford. My other pick. Doh.
Horses #6, #7, and #8, strangely enough, all meet a fade angle that I trust in. So that rules out Ruler On Ice, JJ's Lucky Train, and Astrology. Not totally sure about Ruler On Ice, because he'll definitely run for this jockey (Valdivia).

Picks: #1 and #5. May not have value, but these picks don't include ML's or any info that could be picked up from the PP's, so it's just weird that they would most likely be the worst priced horses. May look at some exotics later with the help of the PP's.

Dark Horse · 07-29-11, 04:10 AM

I must be missing something. This article mentions morninglines on July 28th. But nothing at Equibase yet. Anyway. Shackleford 5-2 and Coil 3-1.

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Dark Horse · 07-31-11, 05:00 PM

Nice exacta payout for these two at 31.40. Back next week, August 6th, at Saratoga.

Result: 1-5-6-2-8-3-7-4

zebra58 · 07-31-11, 07:23 PM

nice call, i boxed 1 & 8

Dark Horse · 08-02-11, 04:17 AM

The Whitney this Saturday at Saratoga. Older horses. Looks like 11 or 12 horses could compete. So far we have: Rodman (Prado), Tizway (Maragh), Mission Impazable (Castellano), Duke Of Mischief (Bravo), Morning Line (Castro), Friend Or Foe (Solis), Giant Oak (Bridgmohan), Apart (Leparoux), and Flat Out.

(May be easier to pick Turbulent Descent in the Test at Saratago this Saturday. Owner on board on this forum.)

Dark Horse · 08-03-11, 06:15 PM

First glance at the Whitney. Only horse I would bet on is Tizway (Maragh). This is not considering ML's, PP's, speed numbers, etc. It does consider the jockey. A big field of 11 horses, so will require more than just a first glance. Still three days to figure this one out.

Dark Horse · 08-04-11, 04:45 AM

#5 Tizway to win. This race is more fuzzy than the last one. No real standouts and no real fades. The horses in the second group, along with Tizway of course, are candidates for an exacta or trifecta box.

Horse #5 - Tizway (Maragh)

Horse #1 - Flat Out (Solis) could be way off, but can't overlook
Horse #4 - Giant Oak (Bridgmohan)
Horse #9 - Rodman (Prado)
Horse #3 - Morning Line (J. Velazquez) on the border of this group
Horse #8 - Headache (Mena)

Horse #6 - Mission Impazible (Castellano) just outside of the second group
Horse #7 - Rail Trip (R. Dominguez)

Horse #2 - Friend Or Foe (Lezcano)
Horse #11 - Duke Of Mischief (Bravo)
Horse #10 - Apart (Leparoux)

I still haven't considered the PP's. Final update on Friday or raceday.

Dark Horse · 08-04-11, 06:16 AM

Here are the morninglines (not considered at all in the above):

Whitney Handicap
1. Flat Out - Alex Solis - 117 - 4-1
2. Friend Or Foe - Jose Lezcano - 115 - 8-1
3. Morning Line - John Velazquez - 118 - 10-1
4. Giant Oak - Shaun Bridgmohan - 119 - 5-1
5. Tizway - Rajiv Maragh - 118 - 6-1
6. Mission Impazible - Javier Castellano - 118 - 6-1
7. Rail Trip - Ramon Dominguez - 117 - 12-1
8. Headache - Miguel Mena - 116 - 20-1
9. Rodman - Edgar Prado - 114 - 20-1
10. Apart - Julien Leparoux - 117 - 6-1
11. Duke of Mischief - Joe Bravo - 117 - 8-1

Dark Horse · 08-06-11, 06:22 AM

This is a tough race to cap. DRF:

08/04/2011 2:19PM
Saratoga: Whitney looks to be anyone's race
By David Grening

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – It has taken longer than hoped for Flat Out and Tizway to reach their potential. With each one coming off a lifetime-best performance in a graded stakes race, it raises the question, can they improve even more?

If so, Saturday’s $750,000 Whitney Invitational Handicap – which on paper seems as wide open a Grade 1 as you will ever see – could boil down to a two-horse race. If not, then almost any of the remaining nine horses could win it.

“I promise you I couldn’t put together a superfecta box,” said Al Stall, trainer of last year’s Whitney winner, Blame, and this year’s Whitney starter Apart. “You’d need about eight of them to be confident.”

There is plenty on the line in Saturday’s Whitney: a $750,000 purse, a chance to ascend the ladder in an unsettled handicap division; and an automatic berth – with entry fees paid – in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in November.

BREEDERS' CUP CHALLENGE: Racing schedule, replays, and past winners »

Tizway and his connections – owner Bill Clifton and trainer James Bond – have been here before. In 1997, they won the Whitney with Will’s Way. They have finished second and third in the race with Behrens in 1999 and 2000.

Tizway finished fourth in the Whitney in 2009, but appears to be in much better form in this, his 6-year-old year. His infirmities, which included a broken wingbone in his right front foot, seem behind him. He enters the Whitney off a dominant 2 3/4-length victory in the Metropolitan Handicap on May 30, in which his final time of 1:32.90 was the second-fastest in the 118-year history of the race.

Bond purposely skipped the Suburban with Tizway to await the Whitney and has given the horse two stiff in-company works coming up to the race.

“For the first time in his life, I think I can train him full-time at 100 percent,” Bond said of Tizway. “I think when this horse is at full strength and fit he’s a very, very talented racehorse. Needless to say, the Met Mile showed that.”

Tizway, who will break from post 5 under Rajiv Maragh, will attempt to become the first Met Mile winner also to win the Whitney since In Excess in 1991.

Like Tizway, Flat Out has had physical problems that have limited him to just nine starts midway through his 5-year-old year. Those problems included a cracked shoulder and bad feet. Those issues seemed behind him when he rallied from fifth to record a 6 1/2-length victory in the Grade 2 Suburban at Belmont on July 2. That followed a sixth-place finish in the Stephen Foster, in which the horse raced along the inside when most of the winners were rallying along the outside.

His trainer, Charles “Scooter” Dickey, believes “there is more” to come from Flat Out, whom he once thought a Kentucky Derby candidate before he was sidelined early in his 3-year-old season.

“We always thought he was a good horse we waited on him and he amazed us more [in the Suburban],” said Dickey, who trained Flat Out here during his 2-year-old season but never raced him.

Dickey believes Flat Out, who has been based at Monmouth Park since the Suburban, has moved forward since the race and as a barometer points to Nick Esler, an exercise rider for trainer David Fawkes, for evidence.

Dickey said that Esler got on Flat Out at Belmont and here in Saratoga and told Dickey “he feels better than he did at Belmont,” according to Dickey, who has Flat Out in Fawkes’ Saratoga barn.

Coincidentally, Fawkes has a major player in the Whitney in Duke of Mischief who won the $1 million Charles Town Classic – beating a field that included Tizway – and who finished fourth in the Stephen Foster.

“He moved a little early. He made the lead about the eighth pole and flattened out,” Fawkes said. “He still ran a good race.”

Apart finished one-half length in front of Duke of Mischief in the Foster, a race in which he appeared to back up in upper stretch, only to alter course and come again.

“Apart made a few mistakes. He’s a little spotty in his running,” Stall said. “He’s there, he backs up, and he comes on again. We feel if he ever just puts it together – which he’s supposed to do with age and maturity if you look at his pedigree – he could be right there in one of these big ones.”

Morning Line, trained by two-time Whitney winner Nick Zito, looms the main speed of the Whitney field, but could be engaged by Friend or Foe and possibly Rodman or Rail Trip. Friend or Foe and Rail Trip were heads apart in a swiftly run overnight stakes at Belmont on June 5 that was the seasonal debut for both horses.

Giant Oak won the Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream in February, and comes off a wide trip when fifth in the Stephen Foster. Headache is in career form having won his last two including the Grade 3 Cornhusker Handicap, but could be the longest shot on the board.

Considering the longest shot on the board has won the Suburban (Flat Out) and Stephen Foster (Pool Play) that might not be a bad thing.

The Suburban will go as race 10 on 11-race card that includes the Grade 1 Test Stakes for 3-year-old fillies. Both races will be shown live on the cable network Versus during a one-hour telecast beginning at 5 p.m. Eastern.

Not sure yet how to play this, if at all. May be better to just skip this race. Tote board will factor into decision. Looking at:

#5 to win
# 1, 5 exacta box
# 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9 under consideration for another exotic. (#8 and #9 are both 20-1, so could make things interesting).

mrginandtonic · 08-06-11, 10:25 AM

Dark Horse, just wondering why do you like Tizway?? Seems to me he is mostly a miler. What is your angle, other than the jock that you mention. Thanks in advance.

mrginandtonic · 08-06-11, 05:03 PM

Good call on Tizway, still wonder why u pick that horse.

Dark Horse · 08-06-11, 05:20 PM

Result: 5-1-4

Again, the method works. Somewhat to my surprise. I didn't feel strongly about this race, but ended up playing 5 to win, and exacta box 1-5. Also threw in exacta boxes 1,3,4,5; and 1,3,4,5,9. All won.

Hope to include the race video later.

Originally posted by mrginandtonic

Dark Horse, just wondering why do you like Tizway?? Seems to me he is mostly a miler. What is your angle, other than the jock that you mention. Thanks in advance.

The horse had the best numbers in a method I've been working on (which is tested in this thread). I'm sorry, but I can't really share how it works. It would take far too long. Jockey is definitely a key element. I would recommend str's Q&A thread as place of great insight.

Dark Horse · 08-06-11, 06:06 PM

The Whitney video:

Here, if embedding is disallowed: http://www.youtube.com/user/NYRAvide.../0/cmFx8LeyFm8

Compare final race result to outline in post #8: 5-1-4-2-8-6-7-9-10-11-3
Pretty close.

The horse I'm focusing on in my post-race analysis is Rodman (#9), who really wanted to go, was held back by the jockey, in what appeared to be quite a struggle between the two. Was it this struggle that cost Rodman the energy that the jockey (Prado) was trying to preserve for down the stretch? Rodman had closed strong in the Metropolitan, won by Tizway, this past May.

Next race in the series is on August 28th in Del Mar. I'm planning to be at the track.

Dark Horse · 08-09-11, 04:32 AM

Saturday's Arlington Million isn't part of the six Breeder's Cup Classics that I want to look at here, but with the next race still a few weeks away I'm tossing it in to keep the momentum going. The race is part of the win-and-you're-in Breeders Cup challenge series.

The field for the Arlington Million, a 1 1/4 mile race for older horses, is starting to shape up and includes two horses from Ireland and one from France: Cape Blanco (IRE), Gio Ponti, Rahystrada, Tajaaweed, General Perfect, Dean's Kitten, Mission Approved, Proceed Bee, Wigmore Hall (IRE), and Zack Hall (FRA). More once the jockeys are assigned.

Dark Horse · 08-09-11, 03:42 PM

Arlington Million
Purse: $1 million; 1 1/4 miles (turf); Grade 1
1 Rahystrada S. Russell 12-1
2 Tajaaweed J. Graham 12-1
3 Dean’s Kitten J. Leparoux 30-1
4 Zack Hall C. Soumillon 10-1
5 Gio Ponti R. Dominguez 2-1
6 Proceed Bee C. Emigh 50-1
7 Cape Blanco J. Spencer 9-5
8 Mission Approved J. Espinoza 6-1
9 Wigmore Hall H. Turner 8-1
10 General Perfect G. Gomez 50-1

Leaning 1-4-7-9, with maybe 5 thrown in. Not getting the type of separation I'm looking for. Nothing really jumps out, either positive or negative. Would throw out 2 and 10. If I bet this race it would be a value bet only. If one of the two favorites (Gio Ponti and Cape Blanco) has a poor race the race could set up for some interesting exotic wagers.

mikemca · 08-09-11, 04:17 PM

I don't think Rahystrada has any chance against this field and I'm a big fan of his.Still early but it may be a good race to go against the 2nd and 3rd choices.I like Tajaaweed to hit the board so he might be my key.gl

Dark Horse · 08-12-11, 06:28 AM

Thanks for the input. I disagree, but that doesn't matter. GL.

Not really crazy about races with multiple imports from Europe. PP's in the US are so much better. The ten horse field includes two horses from Ireland and one from France. All three ended up in my top five. Sounds crazy. lol This is another race without clear definition, with nobody truly standing out.

#1 - Rahystrada - The most allround match for my method. But one key element is missing, so not completely convinced. Normally speaking, this is his race to lose.

#4 - Zack Hall - Hard to read. Coming in from France. If I read this right, he could win, but if not, this could be a complete miss.
#5 - Gio Ponti - A public favorite, and a closer that could be a little flat (but may still be good enough).
#7 - Cape Blanco - The ML favorite. I don't know if he has enough, but don't see this shaping up a race between the two favorites (#7 and #5).
#9 - Wigmore Hall - May give this jockey a lot, which could make things interesting down the stretch.

So the two favorites in the top five, regardless of anything in their PP's. I'm not quite sure yet how to mix in the ML's with my (still developing) method. The rest of the field:

#3 - Dean's Kitten - Outside shot.
#6 - Proceed Bee - Outside shot.

#2 - Tajaaweed - Pretty much a toss out this time.
#8 - Mission Approved - Speed horse that will come up short.
#10 - General Perfect - Same as #2.

Tote board will decide how I play this. Leaning #1 to win, and a few exacta boxes.

Dark Horse · 08-13-11, 12:22 AM

Keep an eye out on the weather: http://www.wunderground.com/US/IL/Ar...n_Heights.html

Weather conditions for the big day are iffy. There’s a decent chance of rain Friday night, with more showers and thunderstorms possible most of Saturday. The turf was rated yielding for Thursday’s program.

Cape Blanco won the Man o’ War over good going, and it would take a great deal of precipitation to turn the course soft enough to hurt his chances. Of greater concern are other factors. Cape Blanco has not produced consecutive peak efforts since the summer of 2009 when he was 2, and the colt’s travel schedule this year has been demanding. In March, he was flown from Ireland to Dubai, where he finished fourth in the Dubai World Cup. Then it was back home for a pair of middling tries in France and England before the trip to and from New York, and back once more to Arlington. And if Cape Blanco isn’t looking for a traveler’s lounge where he can unwind with a glass of wine between flights, he should be tough to beat.

Meanwhile, Gio Ponti’s connections are watching the weather.

“I just hope it doesn’t rain Friday or Saturday,” trainer Christophe Clement said early this week.

Gio Ponti greatly prefers firm turf to soft, but Clement disputes the notion that Gio Ponti has lost a step from his glory days of 2009.

“Some of the best numbers he has ever done have been in his last two races,” Clement said. “I think the last 60 days he’s been as good as ever. His works have been very good. He’s very fit looking.”

Gio Ponti beat Just as Well in the 2009 Million, but after making a wide move and leading late in last year’s edition, he was run down by rail-skimming Debussy. Gio Ponti has dropped out well behind a slow pace in this two turf races this year, a third-place finish in the Manhattan Handicap and his second to Cape Blanco, but Clement said he will leave tactics to Ramon Dominguez.

“Ramon knows the horse inside out,” Clement said.

Wigmore Hall, second in the 2010 Secretariat during his first trip to the U.S., tailed off earlier this year after a good two-race string in Dubai. Trainer Mike Bell sent Wigmore Hall to a farm for rest following seventh-place finish in the May 22 Singapore Cup, and said he thinks Wigmore Hall can return to better form.

“I think I’ve got him in pretty good shape,” Bell said. “He’s run well fresh in the past.”

Arlington Handicap winner Tajaaweed also prefers firm going, but trainer Dan Peitz said he thinks 6-year-old Tajaaweed is a better horse this summer than last, when he finished sixth in the Million.

“I just hope he runs his race this year,” said Peitz.

Rahystrada’s trainer, Scooter Hughes, also believes his middle-aged horse has come on since his fourth-place Million finish last season. Rahystrada won the $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup last out with a strong late surge.

“I hate to say he’s more mature at his age, but he seems that way,” Hughes said. “He was kind of a grind-them-down horse before, but last time he had that burst of speed. He’s really never done that before.”

The likely pacesetter is Mission Approved, who led all the way beating Gio Ponti in the Manhattan before tiring to fourth in the 1 3/8-mile one Man o’ War.

“I think cutting back in distance is going to help,” said trainer Naipaul Chatterpaul.

The American horses Proceed Bee and General Perfect look overmatched, but French raider Zack Hall has a chance if his improving 12-furlong form transfers to this shorter race. - drf

Dark Horse · 08-13-11, 07:22 PM

Well, we ended up with plenty of rain and a track rated as yielding. That can reshuffle the deck.
The first five horses were pretty close: 7-5-3-9-1. Then a four length gap to: 2-8-6-4-10.

I don't really know yet how to do a post-race analysis for this race that I can use to improve my method. My read on Zack Hall was dead wrong, but I knew there was that possibility. The lack of traction down the stretch certainly influenced the order in which the horses crossed the finish line, and I feel pretty strong that #3 Dean's Kitten benefited the most, at the cost of #9 Wigmore Hall (1/2 length) and Rahystrada (another 1/2 length). A 7-5-9-1 finish would have fit my parameters. So if there is something to learn from this race, I should find the answer to the question why I missed #3. Until I have that answer I'll accept that when there's lots of water from the sky my method falls short.

Dark Horse · 08-14-11, 07:18 AM

Some more perspective on the Arlington Million from drf:

Course conditions worked against Gio Ponti for the second race in a row. Gio Ponti prefers firmer going, and heavy rain early Saturday turned the Arlington grass yielding. Dominguez pointed to mud on his silks and said that the course had deteriorated even during the half-hour since he had ridden the Beverly D. Indeed, Cape Blanco’s winning time of 2:05.39 for 1 1/4 miles was the slowest Million clocking in the race’s 29-year history.

Did I miss the #3 horse? Yes, because I had thrown him out because of his speed numbers. I still had him as outside shot, because of my method. When the track became much slower, because of the heavy rain, I should have given less importance to those speed numbers. Easy to say with 20/20 hindsight. But the mistake was mine. At least I know that much. lol I try not to use speed numbers at all until after a full field analysis, but here the race had so little definition (resulting in too many contenders) that I had to draw the line somewhere.

Next race discussed here will be in two weeks in Del Mar. The Pacific Classic. Looks like Twirling Candy, Game On Dude, and First Dude will be in the field.

Dark Horse · 08-15-11, 04:31 AM

Warming up for Del Mar. Here's a cool video of Blind Luck, who may run in the Pacific Classic.

Dark Horse · 08-23-11, 03:28 PM

Pacific Classic at Del Mar this Sunday. The 'big' race this weekend is the Travers, Saturday at Saratoga, with Coil meeting up again with Shackleford and Ruler On Ice. They ran 1-2-3 in the Haskell. Who am I to wonder why, with the Travers taking the spotlight off the Pacific Classic, these races aren't scheduled a week apart?

Field for the Pacific Classic is not set yet. Game On Dude, Twirling Candy, and Setsuko (who loves to race for second spot) are all likely. So is Tres Borrachos, a 6 year old gelding that meets a fading condition for me. http://www.drf.com/news/del-mar-tres...t-gambit-owner

Dark Horse · 08-25-11, 08:51 AM

Pacific Classic
Don Cavallo, Contreras -- 8-1
Jeranimo, Pedroza -- 12-1
Stately Victor, Smith -- 20-1
Tres Borrachos, Bejarano -- 6-1
Acclamation, Valenzuela -- 5-1
Setsuko, Espinoza -- 8-1
Great Warrior, Berrio -- 50-1
Bourbon Bay, Talamo -- 20-1
Game On Dude, Sutherland -- 3-1
Twirling Candy, Rosario -- 5-2
Quindici Man, Garcia -- 20-1

Post time: 5:15 p.m. Sunday. Distance: 1 1/4 miles. Weight: All carry 124 pounds. Purse: $1 million, with $600,000 to the winner. TV: TVG, FSW, ESPN3.com

I may have to skip this race. I'm missing some key information. If I can't find it, I'll do the Travers instead.

Dark Horse · 08-25-11, 09:28 AM

FWIW, Tres Borrachos is back in (Pacific Classic). Fading condition overruled.

A few first glance toss outs (for the win).
Fading: Game On Dude, Bourbon Bay,
Borderline fade: Twirling Candy

If that is accurate, it would throw the race wide open, because Game On Dude (GOD) and Twirling Candy are the ML faves. So that would reawaken my interest in this race, based on value. Just jotting down some early notes, obviously. lol

Dark Horse · 08-25-11, 10:55 AM

Pacific Classic. First cut
Group 1:
Setsuko
Jeranimo
Tres Borrachos
Twirling Candy

Group 2:
Stately Victor
Acclamation
Quindici Man
Possibly Game On Dude as well. I don't count him among serious contenders here.

Both Tres Borrachos and Twirling Candy can go either way. They either fire or they're fade material.

Dark Horse · 08-26-11, 12:48 PM

The Travers. Weather may play a factor here, depending on hurricane Irene. To illustrate, the evening NFLX game now has a kickoff time of 2 PM. If weather is bad or racing schedule is altered due to weather all bets are off. The method I'm developing is still about a year from completion, so this is formative stages.

#4 Ruler On Ice (6/1) - Of the big three from the Haskell, Ruler On Ice has the best shot here in my opinion. He impressed me in the Haskell with a stretch run that fell short, but it may work this time.
#10 Shackleford (9/2) - Should run well.

#7 Coil (3/1) - I don't see Coil firing as in the Haskell. Garcia said he had 'a lot of horse' there, but I doubt he'll experience that here.
#9 Stay Thirsty (5/2) - Just ran the highest speed number of the field, so can't toss him out. After analyzing that last race, though, I believe that Stay Thirsty will not have a race of that caliber. He's overpriced as the favorite.

Outside shot:
#5 Malibu Glow (20/1) - only longshot I'd include in exotics.
#8 JW Blue (8/1)
#6 Raison d'Etat (10/1)

Fading:
#2 Rattlesnake Bridge (8/1)

No shot:
#1 Bowman's Causeway (12/1)
#3 Moonshine Mullin (20/1)

Tote board should decide value. There should be with Stay Thirsty overrated. I'll focus my wagers on #4 and #10 mostly.

Dark Horse · 10-01-11, 12:04 AM

Slightly different approach for Saturday's Goodwood at Santa Anita. Color coded. Green is positive, blue is neutral, red is negative. Bold print adds force. This mostly reflects the anticipated form of the day and form of race. So it is before speed numbers and odds. Therefore, a speed potential (speed number), or odd, that corresponds with the color adds strength to that expectation.

1 Acclamation 2/1 <= will probably skip race and run Sunday instead
2 Coil 4/1
3 Tres Borrachos 10/1
4 Preamble 8/1
5 Golden Itiz 15/1
6 Miss Match 20/1
7 Awesome Gem 3/1
8 Game On Dude 5/2
9 Nijinsky's Song 30/1

Dark Horse · 10-01-11, 12:16 AM

Confirmed that Acclamation runs on Sunday instead. Owner and trainer went for the lesser but easier money. So that leaves a field of eight for the Goodwood.

Dark Horse · 10-01-11, 12:42 AM

Still working on a way to connect the dots. An easy way may be to pencil a high speed number from the PP's for green, medium for blue, and low for red. I'll play around with that a bit.

Dark Horse · 10-01-11, 01:20 AM

The above color coding I trust in, but an accurate conversion to speed numbers is going to take a learning curve. I get this for the Goodwood. Heavily experimental:

#7 winner
then:
#2, #4, and #8 very close together; too close to call. Probably #8 Game On Dude (ML favorite) will come up short down the stretch after grabbing early lead.
then:
#5
and finally:
#3 and #6

Depending on how race pans out #5 could squeeze into top 3.
I'll probably end up betting #7 to win only.

str · 10-01-11, 08:42 AM

Best of luck Dark Horse. Do be careful with those speed figures. As I think you know, they can be flawed in many directions depending on which figures you might use. Understanding these flaws is the key to using them.
I realize that many feel the need to incorporate them, especially because they are right in front of you in the form, but do remember that they did not exist before 1992 and some handicappers did amazing things without them.
Again, Best of Luck.

Dark Horse · 10-01-11, 11:50 AM

Thanks str. I will be careful. Looking for a way to transfer my evaluation into a number. I'd be lucky if speed numbers are that way without any further testing and tweaking. Not counting on it. lol Thanks for all your help in your Q&A thread as well.

str · 10-01-11, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Thanks str. I will be careful. Looking for a way to transfer my evaluation into a number. I'd be lucky if speed numbers are that way without any further testing and tweaking. Not counting on it. lol Thanks for all your help in your Q&A thread as well.

Sounds interesting. Keep me posted as you work through it.

Dark Horse · 10-01-11, 06:32 PM

I will.

Awesome Gem went off at 5-1 so I bet him to win and place. Came in second. Will have to study that race video for sure, because Game on Dude (1-1) won. Small profit. Baffert's two horses - Coil and Game On Dude - went off at 2-1 and 1-1, so the value was with Awesome Gem (5-1).

Here's the race video:

Awesome Gem showed a burst of speed like Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby. He just ran out of track, and I'm inclined to think that this one is on the jockey - David Flores- for allowing too much of a gap early on. Am I seeing that wrong?

I was wrong about Game On Dude. Went back to my records and it was right there. I just missed it. Should have been green. Dumb. But at this stage of the project I'll gladly take an error over a mystery at that basic level. I still wouldn't have picked Game On Dude to win, but with the info I missed his better speed numbers would have made it a very close call with Awesome Gem.

For now I'll continue applying my evaluation (color-coded) to the speed numbers. So in this case Awesome Gem (bold green) got the highest speed number from his PP's. Even though he didn't win, the race still confirmed this for me. Coil (blue) only got a medium speed number from his PP's. I think that can give me a better picture of how close the horses are at the finish line. Especially with my error of Game On Dude identified this looks promising.

And after all that work is done it is still only a preparation, and the numbers flashing across the tote board at the end determine if there's a play or not. That part can be frustrating. The discipline to walk away.

What a game.