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honestly I would not want to lose this horse for $20k and I believe there's a good chance they will if they run him in the same type of race next out..think he may have needed that effort as it was such a long time since he'd been in all out competitive race..when in shape I think he could possibly win a turf sprint or even an allowance race down the roadComment -
Magnitude needs surgery for a bone chip in the ankle. Ugh!Comment -
[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Ragozin Figure
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Caldera’s Ragozin figure for Sunday’s race came out today, and he earned a very strong number for his performance: a 6.
On the Ragozin scale—a.k.a. “The Sheets”—the lower the figure, the better.
Getaway Car ran an 8” (+ denotes a quarter point; - means minus a quarter point; “ is a half point, so Getaway Car ran an 8 1/2).
How could Caldera have run faster than Getaway Car? Unlike speed figure such as Beyer, Equibase and Brisnet that strictly represent final time adjusted for speed of the track, sheet figures also incorporate additional factors such as ground loss and how much weight a horse was carrying (Thoro-Graph is another example of a sheet-style figure).
Obviously, in this case, the additional ground Caldera covered compared to Getaway Car was what made the difference on figures.
For this time of year as a 3-year-old, a 6 is very strong. Here are some other recent Ragozins earned by sophomores:
10+ for Sam F. Davis winner John Hancock
10” for champion juvenile Citizen Bull in the G3 Robert B. Lewis
9+ for G2 Holy Bull winner Burnham Square
10+ for Withers winner Captain Cook
Recent maiden romper Colloquial, who earned a gaudy 106 Beyer Speed Figure, ran a 4- on the Sheets. We don’t yet know the number for Magnitude’s jaw-dropping win in Saturday’s G2 Risen Star, but it’ll likely come back very fast—he ran a 108 Beyer.
The Sheets are just one more tool to interpret a performance and predict what a horse might do next, and are often used to interpret form cycles (I.e. when a horse is set up to peak, or might regress or “bounce”). There’s never any guarantee that a horse will follow a particular pattern or repeat a particularly fast number again, but this gives us one more reason to be impressed by yesterday’s run and excited for the future.
We’ve started some internal discussions as far as nexttargets are concerned, but will let the dust settle a bit before going over options with The Coach and getting his take. Stay tuned.
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[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Tuesday Morning with SNC
https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...9868895037.mp4
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Straight No Chaser jogged up in good order following yesterday’s breeze. As mentioned yesterday, he had a walk day this morning, followed by a quick paddock schooling session. Straight No Chaser handled himself exceptionally well and seems to enjoy his new surroundings. He’ll head back to the paddock tomorrow afternoon with other horses to give it a bit more of a race day feel. He will also train over the training track tomorrow morning, likely jogging one lap and galloping one lap.
Enjoy the video above.
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[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]h Dirt Sprint Post Draw
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The field for Saturday’s G2 Riyadh Dirt Sprint was drawn Tuesday and Straight No Chaser was assigned gate #9 (he will wear saddle towel 10). The other main speed, Jasper Krone, is drawn immediately to his outside, so jockey John Velazquez will have to determine optimal tactics, but if anyone can do that, it’s the Hall of Famer.
As discussed in our video preview released over the weekend, this does still appear to be Straight No Chaser’s race to win.
Post time for the race will be 5:00 p.m. local time, which is 9:00 a.m. ET.
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guessing he traveled about 4 -6 lengths further going wide around both turns ..would account for the much lower (better) figure which as they said is an excellent one for a 3yo's this time of year..add to that (for me anyway) an early foal with a somewhat late start to his career (means he's getting his sh*t together quick) and I'd say things are developing really nice for him
interesting to see what final leg derby prep he'll shoot for..with the number he earned last out they might not be afraid to go anywhere..I like the louisiana derby as it's usually a little easier than arkansas or florida and you get to go the extra 1/16 th of a mile..5 weeks away and 6 weeks prior to the big one..nice spacing imo..whatever the path exciting to see him going forward as a serious contenderComment -
STR when would you take a first time starter over more experienced horses ?
Does trainer %, stakes winner history, jock help in your decision making ?Comment -
Thanks for time STRComment -
2nd response first. The time I give allows me to continue to think about and talk about something I truly loved learning and participating in.
As always Lester, it is my pleasure.
1st question. It's a great one.
While all three should be looked at, I would choose in order your first catagory, then 3rd, and then 2nd. Here is why.
No matter how good the horse is, the trainers intentions from as soon as that trainer realizes what they might have, they will train a certain way. If that trainer is solid with firsters, that's great. But if their total win % overall is , let's say 16-20% and their first time starter win % is well below that, I find it hard to blindly bet that horse based solely on the fact that the trainer has a theory in their method which emphasizes longevity and a career and not that first start. That typically also is shown by previous firsters having similar traits in running style. Case in point.
Wesley Ward firster? Speed right? and probably run very well right?
Christopher Clement/ Graham Motion/ etc. firster. Relax, sit still a bit, and finish up.
That is not to say that those guys train every horse the same. They are all fabulous trainers. But the styles in which they do what they do getting firsters over to the paddock the first time are teaching the horse differently.
Each trainers firster win % is a key for me. I look at the trainer first.
The rider: Most trainers will use their regular rider on their firsters unless they have a reason NOT to. If they do have a reason NOT to, I as a handicapper would guess that to be a negative. It won't always be, but you play the percentages over time with that right? Also, the works might lend a hand in that decision. A smaller trainer that does not always get the leading rider but has that leading rider or close to it that they might not normally have on that firster? Obviously very positive.
The breeding. Well you have the sires like Uncle Mo who throws a ton of live firsters and that must always be considered. The form gives you sire % of winning firsters and I always at least glance at that. But the mare can be just as important if not more so IMO. Not so much if the mare does NOT throw winning firsters but if that mare was a winning firster, that speaks loudly too me Lester. And of course, if they have siblings that won first out, that just makes the argument stronger.
Use those things and if you want to get more specific, let me know.
Hope that helps Lester.Comment -
T-graph lets you look at the data after the races are run in the redboard room. Also they have free races of the week at times and Jerry Brown gives the data away for free every Christmas week. They also have a message board as well.Comment -
Interesting. I have to think they could be very useful as well. So much of that info comes down to interpretation from the reader. Like most, I have to think it is something where some of the info given means more to certain situations than others. That is what I saw in the Rag sheets. Same with the racing form IMO.Comment -
I will EZ. I'm not so sure Len Ragozin is still alive. If so, he is really up there I think. I know King T. is 93 and they were together in the late 70's.
Can't wait to see King again this year at the horseman's reunion at Laurel Park. Think it is April 13th?? He is incredible. I like him so much even though every time I went head and head with him for a training title, he beat me. The last day twice! Talk about tough to pass late. Lol.Comment
the far right icon next to reply with quote. on the bottom of a the persons post. Hit that for each post you want to multi quote.
