Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

hey str


I like a horse in the last race at gulfstream..it's a mcl 16k on the turf going 8.5f..jockey is 15% going back to beginning of 2019 but having a horrible gulfstream (lots of 2nds though)..he's getting on a horse for the first time dropping from a msw turf route also at 8.5f..if he runs that race (looks bad on paper)vs this field he's a major contender with the drop..but juarez is 1 for his last 42 with turf mounts..the colony of turf riders as a whole is very weak here after you get by irad and saez..my point is believe this is a well spotted live horse if he gets a good ride..do you think if juarez feels this way knowing his overall awful turf record he'll be more focused and motivated than he might normally be ..like "i'm having a bad meet and not a good turf jock but I'd really like to beat those guys in a bad field with a horse who has a shot on the drop..does this make any sense lol

It makes GREAT sense.
I happen to know both his dad who I rode a little in Md. and his mom who worked for me and was the daughter of probably the greatest exercise rider and outrider I ever saw, Charlie Linton. I talked about him in here when he passed away last year I think it was.
Nik can ride. Do doubt about that. I did see that he has had terrible seconditis down there but from such a strong family of riders both mom , dad and grand dad, if anyone can keep their head up during tough times, it would probably be Nik.
That horse fits here, is blinkers ON, and will have the most motivated rider in the race. You can bet that if Nik could set the race up, it would be him and Ortiz dueling to the finish line. Amazing how one bottom maiden race that Ortiz won't remember tomorrow will have a chance to be so important to Nik. I think Nik shows up in here with full focus. Yes, the horse has to run, but Nik will be pumped to turn for home with a shot.
It's all the little games within the game JBEX. It happens a lot, but fans don't have the opportunity to see a lot of it for what it is. This, for Nik, if it sets up right, is THAT.
I think it's a great pick for all the right reasons that you spoke to. You are really seeing it well JBEX, win or lose.
Excellent job IMO.

[JBEX]

It makes GREAT sense.
I happen to know both his dad who I rode a little in Md. and his mom who worked for me and was the daughter of probably the greatest exercise rider and outrider I ever saw, Charlie Linton. I talked about him in here when he passed away last year I think it was.
Nik can ride. Do doubt about that. I did see that he has had terrible seconditis down there but from such a strong family of riders both mom , dad and grand dad, if anyone can keep their head up during tough times, it would probably be Nik.
That horse fits here, is blinkers ON, and will have the most motivated rider in the race. You can bet that if Nik could set the race up, it would be him and Ortiz dueling to the finish line. Amazing how one bottom maiden race that Ortiz won't remember tomorrow will have a chance to be so important to Nik. I think Nik shows up in here with full focus. Yes, the horse has to run, but Nik will be pumped to turn for home with a shot.
It's all the little games within the game JBEX. It happens a lot, but fans don't have the opportunity to see a lot of it for what it is. This, for Nik, if it sets up right, is THAT.
I think it's a great pick for all the right reasons that you spoke to. You are really seeing it well JBEX, win or lose.
Excellent job IMO.

always good to hear that from you str .. cool you have a history with his parents and it goes back another generation with people in the business..now it just has to stay dry as they're supposed to get rain mid afternoon..I've always felt that way with bottom rung riders (not nik..he's decent overall) when you see them get on a ride (first time) with a real shot at the lower levels that they will be extra motivated ..they won't get as many mid/high with a realistic shot of winning so have to make the most of their opportunities..from a handicapping perspective a little value to be had..thanks str

[JBEX]

another interesting aspect is the dam has been a producer of very modest winners and the stud fee only $5k ..not unrealistic to see him up for $16k


owner/breeders name i've seen over a long period of time with jersey breds..isaballe DE tomaso and hope jones..I think they had a real good one 4 or 5 years ago but forget the name

[JBEX]

hey str

he's still scheduled to run in spite of the sloppy mess..he has some of the better off track pedigree with what's left..I think it actually might be better,no pun,for him..that debut to me translates to a good route line at this level


I remember a long way back when I used to buy the Tomlinson ratings every year (guy actually was from my town) "not for love" one of the better maryland sires when he was active had one of the best mud numbers in the book..he is the dam sire of this horse

[str]

hey str

he's still scheduled to run in spite of the sloppy mess..he has some of the better off track pedigree with what's left..I think it actually might be better,no pun,for him..that debut to me translates to a good route line at this level


I remember a long way back when I used to buy the Tomlinson ratings every year (guy actually was from my town) "not for love" one of the better maryland sires when he was active had one of the best mud numbers in the book..he is the dam sire of this horse

He was by Mr. Prospector. They Loved the mud. He was out of a Northern Dancer mare. They loved the mud as well but jeez, they would have loved concrete Lol.

Mud up and down pedigree wise. If he trusts it, he should be able to run to his capabilities.

[JBEX]

He was by Mr. Prospector. They Loved the mud. He was out of a Northern Dancer mare. They loved the mud as well but jeez, they would have loved concrete Lol.

Mud up and down pedigree wise. If he trusts it, he should be able to run to his capabilities.

now that's some bloodlines..wow..I was aware of mr p but not of the northern dancer broodmare

[str]

now that's some bloodlines..wow..I was aware of mr p but not of the northern dancer broodmare

Forgot to mention the grand dam was Numbered Account. I was in high school when she was running. She was insanely good and by Buckpasser out of a Swaps mare.
If this horse doesn't like the mud, the family will disown it. Lol.

[JBEX]

Forgot to mention the grand dam was Numbered Account. I was in high school when she was running. She was insanely good and by Buckpasser out of a Swaps mare.
If this horse doesn't like the mud, the family will disown it. Lol.

that's funny..I remember one of her sons private account who I believe was by damascus..a very solid sire back in the day

[JBEX]

mr p..nd..buckpasser..amazing names

I know swaps was good too but less familiar with that one

[str]

See what I mean by TRUSTING the surface. Wow. The horse darn near dwelt at the start, the jock had to use the stick to no avail to try and get him interested after 50 yards, and never any response. Eased through the lane.
Feel bad for Nik. Not the horse though. He refused to extend . Thats a shame.

[JBEX]

could a horse who just doesn't like the mud but is physically sound (relatively speaking) finish up that bad .. or is it more than likely a health issue ?? guess down to $16k says something but I still liked her from a handicapping perspective...didn't think on paper it was necessarily a panic drop

[str]

could a horse who just doesn't like the mud but is physically sound (relatively speaking) finish up that bad .. or is it more than likely a health issue ?? guess down to $16k says something but I still liked her from a handicapping perspective...didn't think on paper it was necessarily a panic drop

Absolutely. If they do not trust the surface, they will not extend at all. It was apparent after 5 strides and the jockey could feel it. I mean, who hits the horse going into the 1st turn?
This horse, on turf, at the same level or if less is possible, less, has to be a play back IMO. Today was a total non effort by the horse.

[JBEX]

Absolutely. If they do not trust the surface, they will not extend at all. It was apparent after 5 strides and the jockey could feel it. I mean, who hits the horse going into the 1st turn?
This horse, on turf, at the same level or if less is possible, less, has to be a play back IMO. Today was a total non effort by the horse.

ok have to ask harthebar if he can put him in the stable..really have to figure out what i'm doing wrong with that..used equibase and must be doing something wrong..think i'll try tvg

[JBEX]

btw you remember ever having a horse by private account ? pretty good sire back in the 80's ..think without looking was the sire of personal ensign

[Louisvillekid1]

It really didn't start out that way but Saez saw the 6 horse, who he knew was the best horse in the race as well as Ortiz who was on a winning role 1st day back, feel intimidated when he had him by a neck going into the far turn. ( I have no doubt that Saez has tremendous pride and nobody likes it when the top gun comes back in town and starts taking over again. What that was , was a deep competitiveness from Saez as well as Ortiz.)

Ortiz had to check for a second and Saez realized that the horse was not comfortable there. The horse was more focused on the tightness and not on his rider, Ortiz, and his commands. So Saez tried his best to keep the horse in that tight spot by pinning Ortiz to take away any room for the stick and make the 6 horse run while thinking about the 7 horse and feeling claustrophobic instead of the race, winning, or the commands of Ortiz, his rider.
Ortiz had to stand up and knife the horse up and down but that was not to move up IMO as much as it was to get the horse to focus on running again. You could see the apprehension in the 6 horse but Ortiz got the horse back to focussing on commands instead of the horse outside. Saez realizing this takes a last chance by bumping him just enough right as they turn for home. But Ortiz has his horse back running again. Once the horse gets maybe a nose in front he switches leads late, but he does switch and immediately starts inching by the 7. Once he is about 1 length in front nearing the wire, Ortiz puts the bit in the back of his horses mouth and you can see his ears go up right away.
The horse was by far the best. And, he gained a ton of experience in that race. No doubt Ortiz is special. Not many riders that could have gotten that horses attention at the 5/16's pole like he did.
That was reminiscent of the old Cordaro days. Only the best of the best can ride like that and be safe doing it. You just cannot see that at a lesser venue. I give lots of credit to both jocks.
I have to think both riders talked about that afterwards. Can't think Ortiz was mad and he should not have been. Saez did his job. He did everything he could to win . Very cool race to watch.

I Was most worried after last night checking in here

excellent analysis and glad you got to review it

it was truly a special race , coming from someone like who watches a lot of them

ty sir for your time

[Louisvillekid1]

It makes GREAT sense.
I happen to know both his dad who I rode a little in Md. and his mom who worked for me and was the daughter of probably the greatest exercise rider and outrider I ever saw, Charlie Linton. I talked about him in here when he passed away last year I think it was.
Nik can ride. Do doubt about that. I did see that he has had terrible seconditis down there but from such a strong family of riders both mom , dad and grand dad, if anyone can keep their head up during tough times, it would probably be Nik.
That horse fits here, is blinkers ON, and will have the most motivated rider in the race. You can bet that if Nik could set the race up, it would be him and Ortiz dueling to the finish line. Amazing how one bottom maiden race that Ortiz won't remember tomorrow will have a chance to be so important to Nik. I think Nik shows up in here with full focus. Yes, the horse has to run, but Nik will be pumped to turn for home with a shot.
It's all the little games within the game JBEX. It happens a lot, but fans don't have the opportunity to see a lot of it for what it is. This, for Nik, if it sets up right, is THAT.
I think it's a great pick for all the right reasons that you spoke to. You are really seeing it well JBEX, win or lose.
Excellent job IMO.

Wow we never disagreed barely ever in like 10 years

im guessing you have a biased towards Nik Juarez,

He a terrible rider over the last 5 atleast, he got so many un-winnable mounts , that he overrides mounts that should win

don’t be mad me, I’m just t
sharing my opinion

he shoulda stayed at Monmouth

[str]

Wow we never disagreed barely ever in like 10 years

im guessing you have a biased towards Nik Juarez,

He a terrible rider over the last 5 atleast, he got so many un-winnable mounts , that he overrides mounts that should win

don’t be mad me, I’m just t
sharing my opinion

he shoulda stayed at Monmouth

Well Kid, yes, my bias is knowing his mom and dad. I never meant to say he was any great rider. Hope it didn't come out that way. I've never paid any attention to his riding and was only going on his record prior to this meet. But, if I am playing a 15-1 shot in a maiden 12k last race, and I see him on the horse, I'm not going to say to myself, well I would have picked it if a lot of other non top riders were on it but I won't because Nik is on it.
I was equating him getting a chance to go down the lane vs. Ortiz as a middle reliever who got called up and getting to pitch against Trout with the bases loaded. Nothing to lose and everything to gain.
I will root for him because of his mom and dad. And I did see that he did very well at Monmouth I guess it was a year or two ago??? Other than that, I was being kind and going on the old adage of "if you can't say anything good don't say anything at all".
Hope that makes sense.

[harthebar]

HI STR HOW IS EVERYTHING GOING,HOPE ALL IS GOOD, ANYWAY I WAS HAVING A CHAT WITH JBEX ABOUT THIS HORSE, JUST WANT YOUR THOUGHTS ON IT
DONT REALLY FOLLOW WILL ROG BUT THERE IS A HORSE THERE RUNNING TODAY I SAW HIM AT OAKLAWN CHEAP 5000C HIGH CLASS EURO, RACE 9 2 RACES AGO HE WAS AT OAKLAWN THEN HE WENT TO w.r. FOR A 5000C ABOUT 3 WEEKS AGO.... BUT HAD A DIFFERENT TRAINER , GOT CLAIMED LAST RACE IN A 5000C AT W.R. WIRED THE HORSES NOTHING SPECIAL...SLOW MILE ...BUT TODAY HE IS RUNNING IN A STAKES RACE,FIRST RACE OFF THE CLAIM AND WIN , HE HAD TO PAY 250 TO GET IN THERE, LOOKS LIKE HE IS WAY OVER HIS HEAD (rIGHT JBEX) HE LOOKED AT THE CHARTS FOR ME .............ANYWAY , WHY PUT HIM THERE, WHAT ADVANTAGES WOULD BE GAINED, UNLESS HE THINKS HE CAN WIN HE IS 30 TO 1 , SEEMS LIKE WHITE CARGO...THE HORSE FROM BOOTS MALONE..THE MOVIE, IVE BEEN TRYING TO GET EVERYONE TO WATCH .....LOL IS THE TRAINER TRYING TO SEE WHAT THE HORSE REALLY IS. ?
THANKS

[str]

HI STR HOW IS EVERYTHING GOING,HOPE ALL IS GOOD, ANYWAY I WAS HAVING A CHAT WITH JBEX ABOUT THIS HORSE, JUST WANT YOUR THOUGHTS ON IT
DONT REALLY FOLLOW WILL ROG BUT THERE IS A HORSE THERE RUNNING TODAY I SAW HIM AT OAKLAWN CHEAP 5000C HIGH CLASS EURO, RACE 9 2 RACES AGO HE WAS AT OAKLAWN THEN HE WENT TO w.r. FOR A 5000C ABOUT 3 WEEKS AGO.... BUT HAD A DIFFERENT TRAINER , GOT CLAIMED LAST RACE IN A 5000C AT W.R. WIRED THE HORSES NOTHING SPECIAL...SLOW MILE ...BUT TODAY HE IS RUNNING IN A STAKES RACE,FIRST RACE OFF THE CLAIM AND WIN , HE HAD TO PAY 250 TO GET IN THERE, LOOKS LIKE HE IS WAY OVER HIS HEAD (rIGHT JBEX) HE LOOKED AT THE CHARTS FOR ME .............ANYWAY , WHY PUT HIM THERE, WHAT ADVANTAGES WOULD BE GAINED, UNLESS HE THINKS HE CAN WIN HE IS 30 TO 1 , SEEMS LIKE WHITE CARGO...THE HORSE FROM BOOTS MALONE..THE MOVIE, IVE BEEN TRYING TO GET EVERYONE TO WATCH .....LOL IS THE TRAINER TRYING TO SEE WHAT THE HORSE REALLY IS. ?
THANKS

I have not been able to see the form on the horse but sometimes trainers do crazy things.

On the surface it makes no sense to me but it is hard to judge without seeing it.

There should be spots to see how good a horse is without running in a stake, right?

[harthebar]

I have not been able to see the form on the horse but sometimes trainers do crazy things.

On the surface it makes no sense to me but it is hard to judge without seeing it.

There should be spots to see how good a horse is without running in a stake, right?

Yes. You know it. Thanks

[Ventura]

HI STR HOW IS EVERYTHING GOING,HOPE ALL IS GOOD, ANYWAY I WAS HAVING A CHAT WITH JBEX ABOUT THIS HORSE, JUST WANT YOUR THOUGHTS ON IT
DONT REALLY FOLLOW WILL ROG BUT THERE IS A HORSE THERE RUNNING TODAY I SAW HIM AT OAKLAWN CHEAP 5000C HIGH CLASS EURO, RACE 9 2 RACES AGO HE WAS AT OAKLAWN THEN HE WENT TO w.r. FOR A 5000C ABOUT 3 WEEKS AGO.... BUT HAD A DIFFERENT TRAINER , GOT CLAIMED LAST RACE IN A 5000C AT W.R. WIRED THE HORSES NOTHING SPECIAL...SLOW MILE ...BUT TODAY HE IS RUNNING IN A STAKES RACE,FIRST RACE OFF THE CLAIM AND WIN , HE HAD TO PAY 250 TO GET IN THERE, LOOKS LIKE HE IS WAY OVER HIS HEAD (rIGHT JBEX) HE LOOKED AT THE CHARTS FOR ME .............ANYWAY , WHY PUT HIM THERE, WHAT ADVANTAGES WOULD BE GAINED, UNLESS HE THINKS HE CAN WIN HE IS 30 TO 1 , SEEMS LIKE WHITE CARGO...THE HORSE FROM BOOTS MALONE..THE MOVIE, IVE BEEN TRYING TO GET EVERYONE TO WATCH .....LOL IS THE TRAINER TRYING TO SEE WHAT THE HORSE REALLY IS. ?
THANKS

The trainer is 1 for 40 lifetime and this is the owners 3rd horse ever.

In recent years these statebred races at Will Rogers haven’t been the toughest. I see a minor award as a ceiling for this horse. I don’t think there’s really much to read into here.

[JBEX]

hey str

just watched my even money layoff horse finish off the board at will rogers..won't name names but average trainer numbers wise but on 46-90 day layoffs he's 5 for his last 81 (now 82 lol) and every dollar put through the window on him doing this returns 42 cents..is this more than just lack of intention and he's just bad at it ? or maybe the types of horses he has are more the need a race types..they must look good on paper to have that bad an roi..boy he's a great bet against at low odds if I ever see that again

[str]

Answering off my phone so my apologies for the poor sentencing.


You see this at small purse tracks. It happened at Charlestown for decades. Might still , but have not followed it there at all. This was a cash cow way back in the day when we 1st figured it out at CT.
Here is why this exists in all probability. This example is exactly why it used to happen at CT.

The daily cost to train at the track is roughly 6-8 times higher than on the farm. Trainers that have farms or have access to one can take a horse that might need a month off or more and put them on their farm or a farm they work with. The horse can do anything from just walk, to being turned out or even trotted with or without a rider. So from doing nothing to very light exercise. Over 30-90 days the horse will lose fitness but recover from whatever the rest was for.

Then, the trainer might bring the horse in and does some basic stuff at the track or literally enter them off the farm and ship in to run. This depends on the horse and the amount of time off as well as what they did while on the farm.

(If it’s the latter, they usually have a stall ready for that horse and probably rotate another one out to do the same thing so the horse just shipped in can stay and continue to get fit. )

So , by doing a little or even just bringing them in and run right away they are basically running them fit.
Any stuff about a published workout is basically ridiculous. Pay no attention to that workout stuff at small tracks. While the theory is sound, it is fraught with deceit. Not always as plenty can work 3/8’s for the clocker but it is all too easy to bypass if needed. And this is not to cash bets like a customer would assume. That is what a gambler would try and do but 99% of small track trainers do not think that way.
It’s simply the economics of the trainer trying to stay in business. Remember, they are NOT thinking like a gambler. They are trying to save a buck and make ends meet. Gonna have to trust me here. Oh sure, they might bet a Few bucks but nothing like a real gambler would. And remember, the pools are so small that you can’t bet what you might want to. Of course, in the pandemic case with the pools so over-bet, it’s like Christmas if you can find one or two of these. Lol.
I am sure that someone will read this and say they know of a trainer that bets big, and actually wins and sure, I don’t mean no trainer ever does but the reality of a sharp gambler that trains is a real long shot to find. I knew exactly 2 out of probably 500 -1000 trainers. Now there were plenty that thought they were sharp but I’m going on results not perception , bragging after the fact or talk. So not a large concern for what we are taking about IMO.
People at CT would use the 4 1/2 race as a workout. Do that twice and the 3 rd time the horse is ready to run it’s best in all likelihood at that distance or even at 6 1/2F sometimes.

All this really depends on the exact trainer methodology but that is the outline of it.
My guess is that the same trainer that is terrible 1st off the lay-off is better at 2nd off the lay and very good 3rd off the lay.
That is a must check JBEX.

I have spoken about this before in terms of Charlestown and have to think it still exists there as well as anywhere pots are small.
It’s a country atmosphere there in W. Va. As well as other small purse tracks I assume. I know the pots are better at CT now but old habits for hard for some old name trainers and it allows maximum productivity from the stalls allotted at the track. Remember, if a trainer has 40 stalls, they probably have 25-30 at the most actually running. The rest are getting fit, are unraced and working towards their 1st race or something else minor but enough to prevent them from being entered for the next month or so. With a trainer shuttling horses, that productivity goes up to probably 32-35 out of 40.
That’s huge !
If it’s a smaller stable, the % of races per stall are the same as the example made.

With money still tight for many at CT as well as small purse tracks these tactics are necessary to keep food on the table.
I have to think this is what’s going on with the trainer in question. Monitoring 2nd and 3rd off time is liable to be a solid payoff or as I referred to it a cash cow if you can figure out the pattern.

Also, see if you can find repeat tactics with the same horse if you can go back far enough. That’s how we 1st found it when we were seniors in high school and we thought we had found the closest thing to tomorrow’s racing results today as we would ever see.

With a prevailing attitude that “ you cannot beat the races or the rake is too high” it’s spots like this that a smart horse player will lay in wait and pounce on when the time is right. Won’t always work but the +EV is very strong in this type of spot.
A well worth it, monitoring is due here JBEX. Sounds like you found a hidden gem. Go for it !
Please keep me posted.
Hope that helps.

[JBEX]

pretty cool..so you get horses off an average layoff (which for brisnet is 46-90 days) and may have a decent to good last race..this is good as it will attract money..but in reality this horse has little to no chance to win if he's from a trainer who operates this way and that's easy to find out with the trainer stats..I don't have access (unless it happens to take place) how this guy does 2nd or 3rd off the layoff but maybe if you use drf formulator or some other service that could be found out immediately (even if it's not happening today)

I'd be looking for not only low win % but also low roi..this tells me a lot of any particular trainer's horses look good on paper but mostly don't perform..and when they do prices are on the low side..looking good last out or dropping or both probably important here..we want to attract money so they will be over bet


only thing about this one though is he was competing well at oaklawn in allowance races and even got 2nd in a sb stakes at remington which is a higher level oklahoma track..the purse was $130k vs $55k yesterday..hard to believe he wasn't serious about winning yesterday v's competition he should have easily or at least reasonably have been able to handle

[str]

He was probably serious about wanting to win but if your not fit, your not fit.
My discussion was more about inexpensive horses but could include a better horse if this is something the trainer does often. His stats say it could be. Just have to watch and learn I guess.

[JBEX]

yeah yesterday may just have more brought it into the light rather then being a good example

[JBEX]

no need to have a final answer now but what parameters would you draw for minimums..

like lose 40 cents on the dollar and 12% winners?

[JBEX]

also maybe 50 race minimum

[JBEX]

btw that trainer had a horse in this race at will rogers that was scratched.. it was 2nd off the layoff so got to see his numbers.. tremendous (% and roi) over large sample.. you pegged it!!

[str]

Hey Lkid

I have a picture of Jimmy Hamilton in the winners circle. I will try and post tomorrow.
He is the winning groom of my 1000th winner.
I think you will like it. He has his horse looking great. Shows just how good he was in spite of his crippling injuries.

[str]

Is this article I found with Jimmy Hamilton as groom

Your doing?

that’s really cool man

Here is your boy Jimmy Hamilton.

https://i.postimg.cc/W3Qx12P8/Image-150.jpg

[JBEX]

nice picture

[JBEX]

hey str..I know I've been asking a lot of you of late lol but wanted to ask you something about tampa R4 if you're up to it ..understand and perfectly fine if your not..it's a claiming race and has to do with 2 horses dropping in class

[str]

hey str..I know I've been asking a lot of you of late lol but wanted to ask you something about tampa R4 if you're up to it ..understand and perfectly fine if your not..it's a claiming race and has to do with 2 horses dropping in class

I have the race. Which droppers.

[JBEX]

the 1 and 2..I was thinking both won vs 25kn2l 2 races ago so being up for 8k today not good..but then I saw the 2 dId it in an off the turf race at 5f (turf sprint distance there)..so that's not really like a legit race at that level while the 1's is
..that fade pattern the 2 ran vs much faster 16's last out would be tough vs these (I like those gradual fades out of faster races as a primer)..won't get too ahead of myself cause i'm not taking either as the 2 will be an underlay here