Sounds good STR. Yeah the 2 main tourney sites I know of are Derby Wars and Horse Tourneys.com, HT is the better of the 2 imo since DW got sued by the owners of Gulfstream Park. They have tournaments where you can win upwards of 20K and more. Buy in is high but they have qualifiers for much smaller monies to win your way in. If you ever give it a spin keep me updated. Have a feeling you would make some coin.
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Have been doing it even more now using your analogy of football over the past few days and I cant believe how Im seeing things diffrently.
i will say what helps is not only a bigger screen, but as well the quality of replay. NYRA/Woodbine/Gulfstream have really high quality definition replays, that its more possible to see what you're saying on a hi-def but smaller laptop screen.Comment -
Anytime !
I could have gone on but you see my point.
Workouts are ridiculous to use in handicapping.
Simply put, they are an incomplete bit of information .
See how the trainer and /or horse does off the same amount of time % wise and use that.
Numbers don't lie, but workout tabs do.Comment -
hey str
in the carter handicap today wanted your opinion on the winners stretch run..nice rail skimming trip and it opened up approaching the stretch and he won going away by open lengths..his stride seemed almost machine
like..very powerful and efficient..wanted to see what you thought or is it just meLast edited by JBEX; 04-07-18, 08:02 PM.Comment -
Very impressive indeed. Switched leads right on cue.
He ran a great race. Finished very fast. He was in complete control from the 5/8ths pole ( green and white) home or after about 20 seconds of the race.
He totally dominated that field.
You could tell that he was all business today.
Cant say if he is always like that or not but look at his eyes in his picture on DRF hitting the wire.
No prisoners in those eyes.
Last edited by str; 04-08-18, 10:40 AM.Comment -
another thing unrelated.. remember the horse earlier in the year tony dutrow had mo town.. he won the remsen as a 2yo but dissapointed in his first start as a 3yo at the fairgrounds.. he's won his last two starts and they were his first two on the turf.. an allowance and his last the grade 1 hollywood derby which was in november.. the brisnet figures were huge for both.. he's running in the feature race at aqueduct today which is a listed stakes.. good spot to start off his 4yo campaign .winning a G2 on the dirt at 9f as a 2yo and a G1 on the grass as a 3yo in his second attempt and being by uncle mo sure he'll be a stallion down the road.. I like rudy in the last race and he's got a first time starter nyb with a speedy pedigree...no value in the former but latter might be a $10 horse.. we'll seeComment -
Very impressive indeed. Switched leads right on cue.
He ran a great race. Finished very fast. He was in complete control from the 5/8ths pole ( green and white) home or after about 20 seconds of the race.
He totally dominated that field.
You could tell that he was all business today.
Cant say if he is always like that or not but look at his eyes in his picture on DRF hitting the wire.
No prisoners in those eyes.
yeah I can see that..weird I can't see the picture in your post but when I hit "reply with quote" I can.. that was only his 3rd career start and I had picked him in his debut last april and yesterday for the race.. rwq
the write up yesterday in my thread if you didn't see.. I also posted the chart callers comments (back then 4/30/2017)..i'll copy and paste them forward since this was only his 3rd start.. think the met mile on belmont day might be in his future if he stays healthyComment -
from his debut 4/30/2017
won by 8+ lengths and here's the chart caller's comment
ARMY MULE broke forwardly placed, took up residence in the three path soon afterwards, contended for the front as the widest of a trio to the
five-sixteenths pole, had that dispute morph into a one on one contest with THADDEUS leaving the five-sixteenths marker, was confidently ridden
overlauling the aforementioned rival coming to the quarter pole, proceeded along to what can be best described as being ridden out from midstretch to the
sixteenth pole, with the remainder of the stretch drive having the pilot futilely trying to get a lead change, beginning from the three-sixteenths pole, managed
to draw off nonetheless, continuing onward on a left lead.
think he may bring him to the woody stephens on belmont stakes day if not alw n1x ..paid $5.10 and R6
won also and paid $24..$81 doubleComment -
I'll keep you posted on his next start.. as you know the carter is a stepping stone race for the met mile and don't think an extra furlong should be a problem..
I'll take a stab just for the fun of it.. if he runs and wins the met mile (or runs well) they'll have to decide between the whitney (early August) or the forego @ 7f on the travers undercard assuming he stays the ny path.. I'm thinking between those two they'd keep him sprinting in the latter.. the breeders cup this year is at churchill so he'd get a 1 turn mile which obviously would suit him fine.. OK that's my path for him lol...let's hope he stays healthy and we'll see what transpires.. thanks for the feedback strLast edited by JBEX; 04-08-18, 01:18 PM.Comment -
STR could you take a look at the replay of SA r7 on 4-5-18 see if hte #3 looks like a possible winner next outl.Comment -
army mule earned a 114 beyer for the carter..the time for the race was 1:20.4 which is less than a second off the track record..for comparison the bay shore for 3yo's the race after went in 1:23 flat.
pletcher on him..he said he was sidelined after his debut because a knee flared up
“He’s so gifted, he’s kind, he’s rateable, so I think the interesting thing is to see how he handles added distance,” “I’ve never seen anything to indicate he won’t go farther.”
Pletcher planned to ship Army Mule back to South Florida and have him train at the Palm Beach Downs training center for the next few weeks..they are pointing him for the met mile on belmont dayLast edited by JBEX; 04-09-18, 10:48 PM.Comment -
Well Tony, she didn't run bad but she didn't really run all that good either. She had to wait but there was a spot to go and she tried to go but the horse inside of her as they straightened away for home kind of beat her to the punch and outran her a head or neck and from that point on she could not improve.
It looks like she tried but just needed more.
I see she won last time. Was this a significant step up?
If I had to guess and I know very little other than the replay, I would lean towards her needing one step down in class, whatever that might be. If she stayed in the same spot, with a great trip I could see her hitting the board at a price maybe. But off just that I can't say that I see her turning the tables enough to win against the same bunch off that effort.
Sorry to be vague but I just don't know enough about her pp's, the trainer, or jock, etc. to give a solid more definitive answer.
Hope that helps somewhat.
Let me know how she does next out.Comment -
hey str..
selected a horse in the arkansas derby who ran in the bluegrass the week before.. I know I know but my
thought was this.. in the bluegrass he broke from the 12 post in a 14 horse field...said he came out at the start and was steadied in the 1st turn.. he got to within 3 at the pace call and then gave it up pretty bad and finished 12th..is it possible or reasonablly likely because of the late fade that the race could have left him fresh enough or sound enough to come back in a week to run again? like the jock stopped using him hard the last ¼ - ⅜ so he'd have something left in the tank for another start...liked him for other reasons and ultimately did little in the race at around 60-1..trainer is very bad @ 6% on the year from 118 startsLast edited by JBEX; 04-15-18, 01:03 PM.Comment -
Yes. It is very possible that the horse had plenty left in the tank for a quick return. I think the worry is that horses can usually sense when they are outclassed. Especially in Grade 1's. And, did the rider back off because the horse dropped the bit and quit in that last race or did the rider make that decision and the horse obliged. You can usually tell in the reruns but not every time. Most customers will probably have difficulty seeing that though. It can be very subtle and I cannot tell every time either. ( Look at my avatar. See the outside horse? He had dropped the bit about 5 seconds before that picture was taken. He ranged up, they looked eye to eye, and my horse had more and said see ya. The outside horse gave up at that point. See the reigns lose and the rider just about ready to recross the reigns. THAT is what dropping the bit can look like. See my horses reigns tight and the rider sitting there working with the horse. My horse has the bit grabbed and in the back of his mouth. The horse has responded and the rider is in sync with the horses stride. No stick needed when that happens.)
I can see why you would take a flyer on him with the trouble at the start of his last race. I did not see the race but if he showed even less this time with no real early trouble, the horse knew he was over matched even if the trainer did not or the owner wouldn't admit it. If so, when they line up in the gate they look around and think "uh, oh. That happens this time of year when trying to get to the Derby. People get stars in their eyes. That is usually followed with egg on their face. Lol.
I do think the horse might deserve one more look if placed in a more reasonable spot next time. If he finds himself against horses where he fits, he might show a full effort at a price. Keep an eye on him JBEX. Lets follow this guy one more race.
Last edited by str; 04-16-18, 09:36 AM.Comment -
Yes. It is very possible that the horse had plenty left in the tank for a quick return. I think the worry is that horses can usually sense when they are outclassed. Especially in Grade 1's. And, did the rider back off because the horse dropped the bit and quit in that last race or did the rider make that decision and the horse obliged. You can usually tell in the reruns but not every time. Most customers will probably have difficulty seeing that though. It can be very subtle and I cannot tell every time either. ( Look at my avatar. See the outside horse? He had dropped the bit about 5 seconds before that picture was taken. He ranged up, they looked eye to eye, and my horse had more and said see ya. The outside horse gave up at that point. See the reigns lose and the rider just about ready to recross the reigns. THAT is what dropping the bit can look like. See my horses reigns tight and the rider sitting there working with the horse. My horse has the bit grabbed and in the back of his mouth. The horse has responded and the rider is in sync with the horses stride. No stick needed when that happens.)
I can see why you would take a flyer on him with the trouble at the start of his last race. I did not see the race but if he showed even less this time with no real early trouble, the horse knew he was over matched even if the trainer did not or the owner wouldn't admit it. If so, when they line up in the gate they look around and think "uh, oh. That happens this time of year when trying to get to the Derby. People get stars in their eyes. That is usually followed with egg on their face. Lol.
I do think the horse might deserve one more look if placed in a more reasonable spot next time. If he finds himself against horses where he fits, he might show a full effort at a price. Keep an eye on him JBEX. Lets follow this guy one more race.
I realized I was taking a flyer on this guy and genuinely thought there were strong points relative to the long odds he'd go off at.. the key point for me though was his minimal effort in the bluegrass would allow him to return for this race with enough freshness to have a chance..if he had done too much running in the bg I wouldn't have even considered him and i doubt the trainer would have raced him in this race.
he's still eligible for n1x lol and think if they bring him along the right way he'll clear that condition and n2x or even a listed stakes next.. he'll be no bargain value wise in these races but just for the heck I'll stable him.. thanks strComment -
Quick question I think.....
Tonight in the 6th race (state allownce n3L) at CT, the fave B's Wild Cork only has 2 wins, and won this condition last out as only a maiden winner.
Following the maiden win, they tried 2 stakes races and than did the N3L for 3 races.
Did they do this because N2L allowances simply aren't available? Or is there not much difference between a N2L or N3L allowance at CT?Comment -
It seems as though they are wanting to run in State bred races as much as possible. When I took a quick look at the condition book I did not see a nw/2 lifetime for state breds, only the nw/3. That makes sense because those are hard to fill with any more than 6 or 7.
There is a lot of difference between nw/2 and nw/3 typically but with West Va. Breds, probably not nearly as much. If the owner is the breeder and maybe the trainer as well, like a family thing, they are trying to maximize the total purse winnings by running in those state bred races. They are almost always an easier spot than a straight nw/3 . Usually, at least in my day, by about 5-7 lengths. Plus, most state breeders assns. will give the owner a breeders bonus and an owners bonus. That can be several thousand dollars for each. That will not reflect in the horses earnings but it is like free money for a owner/breeder. So they will probably bide their time and try and win that race again . I saw that the next race is May 11 going 7/8ths and is 3 year olds only. That should make the horse about 3-5 unless a new horse arrives in there.
Typically I would frown on running out of conditions. It is not a wise choice usually, but in this case, I get it and too me, it makes sense.
Hope that helps.Comment -
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hey str
know your fond of edgar prado....he just won the charlestown classic with a purse of $1.2M..he had about $320k in earnings coming into the day..gotta feel goodComment -
so would a jockey's cut be about 7-8% of his earnings won factoring in what the agent gets? if prado had $320k for the year coming in he's earned about $23k..this race his net share (after agent) would be about $50k if that math is correct..so he more than tripled his yearly income with this win ?Comment -
one other thing you'd get a kick out of is this horse's pp's.. if you go to post 456 of "mrginandtonic's random plays" thread there is a link to brisnet pp's.. just look for CT R11 for saturday and you can download that race...the ultimate late bloomer is this horse.. up to you no offense if you don't checkLast edited by JBEX; 04-22-18, 06:49 AM.Comment -
After his agent gets paid, and his valet gets staked like 2% and he probably gives the groom 500 or something like that and / or buys the barn lunch for about 400, the rest he would keep. You are probably fairly close.
The overall earnings is tougher to figure. Jocks get 10% of the win and either 5% for 2nd and or maybe 3rd and a set rate depending on the purse for 4th or worse. Usually 70 -100 bucks. Maybe 150 for 2nd and 120 for 3rd, something like that if not a 5% rate. I am assuming their prices have gone up over the years from where they were back when I was there.
So he maybe earned a bit more than 23K prior to yesterday. Not a lot though.Comment
