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Yes, the horse did switch leads.
Looked too me that the horse simply loafed on the lead, losing some interest.
Once he was past, he tried to pick it back up and come again but ran out of track.
I wonder if this horse has more seconds than wins?
Seems like a habit he has had for awhile.
The shadow roll he wears over his nose is probably on him for just that reason.
When horses do what he did, they typically raise there head up somewhat and that alone will slow a horse down.
Try running with your head up some time. It's scary how much slower it can make you.
Hope that helps.
Happy Thanksgiving JBEX and everyone that reads this.Comment -
15-4-2-2 his record ..thanks for the response and knowledge you provide all year round... happy thanksgiving to you and everybody else !!Comment -
hey str
capping prx today and noticed a horse making his 7th career start and has broken from the rail in his first 6 starts.. where's he breaking from today.. the 11 post and yes it's an 11 horse field.. unbelievable!! BTW average field size in those races about 7.5
chances of that happening about 178,000/1.. if you want to make it just getting an extreme post and include today
make it about 2,000,000-1Comment -
It is indeed a random draw.
The draw is open for anyone to see, including the interested fan. They cannot restrict you from watching it. Most fans just do not know this or are misinformed as to where it takes place and if they can attend.
Usually happens these days during the race card as it takes longer to fill out future cards today than it did back in the day.
It takes place in the racing office. Those are generally located near the paddock area but not always.Comment -
OK.. good to know.. really incredible where he drew in his first 7 races.. all my years I've never been in the racing office.. do fans go in there for any reason in general ?Comment -
It's one of the best kept secrets in racing. Open to the public but if everyone knew about it it would be packed with fans and nobody could get there work done.
You can get condition books ( most are online though these days), see the vets list, the nerved list which will basically tell you who in that state has a broken foot that has since healed. Most of those will be wearing a bar shoe on that foot but not everyone and not always,get overnights( the next day or two of drawn races. It will show listed riders, plenty with two mounts before they chose which they will ride if they have a choice. If already committed, there is no choice) as well as watch the draw of a card or a shake if more than one claim is in for a horse. That happens about a minute after the race the claimed horse was in finishes. All parties trying to claim the horse MUST be there to witness it.
Most might not care but for some, it's certainly an insight to how the processes work.
Let me know if you ever want to see it. Let me know the track and I will tell you where to go. Just walk in like you own the joint. Nobody will question you and it is totally legal.Comment -
more of a curiousity thing for me.. rarely go out to the track but good to know how things work behind the scenes and that if I did want to get this information it would be available to me
one other question if you don't mind and no rush to answer if you're busy.. when I started seriously trying to handicap in the early 80's (I'm from new york) remember how good Gasper Moschera was at the claiming game..He had one main client barbara davis for a while and possibly others (I'm not sure).. He was extremely successful at it and had at least one or two that went on to win over $1M .He left the game about 15 years ago I believe.. one of the things he said is something like 9 out of 10 horses he would claim had some serious flaw that he could do nothing with whereas 10-20 years before that the exact opposite was true ..He also said that most or all of the horses he claimed were simply decided upon by reading the drf.. I'm pretty sure the numbers I gave on the horses he claimed are in the ballpark of what he said he..Ive often felt I had a good idea of when a horse would be a good deal at a certain price and enjoy sometimes seeing if I'm right with my assessment..Do you think his ascersion that the scales turned on him that much over that period of time could be even remotely accurate?? How about claiming horses just by reading the drf..is that unrealistic or do you feel some can be successful by making their decisions just by handicapping the horse??Comment -
one other question str and I do apologize for the flurry in a short period of time.. R2 at parx how much further would you say the 6 traveled going very wide vs the 5 who sat the rail trip around the turn.. 3-4 lengths I'd guess.. no rush and do appreciate your help with all these thingsComment -
Q. when I started seriously trying to handicap in the early 80's (I'm from new york) remember how good Gasper Moschera was at the claiming game..He had one main client barbara davis for a while and possibly others (I'm not sure).. He was extremely successful at it and had at least one or two that went on to win over $1M .He left the game about 15 years ago I believe.. one of the things he said is something like 9 out of 10 horses he would claim had some serious flaw that he could do nothing with whereas 10-20 years before that the exact opposite was true .He also said that most or all of the horses he claimed were simply decided upon by reading the drf.
A. I would have to agree with him for the most part. Maybe not 9-10 but certainly the majority of horses he claimed, especially if he was taking obvious horses on paper only without going to the paddock and seeing that horse close up over a period of time. While that is no assurance of claiming a sound horse, it does allow you to see the horses legs up close and over a period of races so you can go back and compare notes to see what joints might have been filling up or more importantly, been drained of fluid and replaced with cortisone. And how often that might have occurred.
Work like that is not easy. It is very time consuming and you better know what you are looking at and for or you will be wasting a lot of time.
Looking at changes of equipment can be signs of wear and tear or habits being developed many times due to a compensating stride that might have developed from an infirmity.
I only know of one trainer that had long term success claiming off paper only. While there might be others, he is the only one that I watched up close , do it successfully for decades. King T. went into the hall of fame this past year or so.
Q. Do you think his ascersion that the scales turned on him that much over that period of time could be even remotely accurate?
A. Yes. In my opinion, as the competition for year round racing became fierce back in the 80's, especially on the east coast, racing secretaries were put under tremendous pressure to fill races. That pressure was passed down to the trainers to enter their horses , often times when sitting a race out might have been the decision without that pressure. Owners were feeling pressure to pay rapidly increasing costs and that pressure was passed on to the horse. Costs were soaring everywhere from workman' s comp. to salaries. Vets had cost increases as well and they were starting to be measured in the same light as trainers and riders, that is, by wins of their clients and who won and how often. Owners would put pressure on trainers to change vets because "so and so" was winning at 35%. Drugs were quickly getting out of hand. By the late 80's state chemists could not keep up with the new drugs. In short, the bad guys were winning.
All of this pressure from the management to the racing secretary's to the owners, to the trainers, and to the jocks all fell on the horse. If a trainer wanted to do what 10-20 years prior would have done, and rested the horse albeit for just a couple of weeks to a couple of months, the were questioned by everyone who would all point to a horse or trainer that was running other horses all the time and kept winning.
Probably the most well known case of this was Seattle Slew. One of the most unbelievable horses ever. His trainer wanted to do it one way, the owners wanted to do it another way. The rest, is history.
So it is my opinion that the massive amount of pressure put by ALL parties on the horses that raced, took a tremendous toll over time.
That toll is now clearly seen "in my opinion", with the fragility of today's race horse. Why? Because the breeding shed became filled with horses both male and female that 20-30 years earlier would not be breeding material. As a result, the infirmities became the norm and thus we have as frail a racehorse as we have ever seen.
Was it drugs, too much racing, too much pressure from all parties involved, too much money at stake ?
In my opinion, yes.
There was an old saying back when stakes races were often times handicaps that spread weight around to help lesser horses try and compete with the great ones.
The saying or quote was, "weight broke the wagon", meaning enough weight would get any horse beat. I think that in the 80's we all put too much weight of the industry and the need to outdo everyone else on the horses. And as a result, we are where we are today.
Just an opinion, but I had a front row seat.
Q. How about claiming horses just by reading the drf..is that unrealistic or do you feel some can be successful by making their decisions just by handicapping the horse?
A. I can only speak for myself. For me, I just could not do it. I learned a different way. Replays, seeing horses legs everyday in the paddock, comparing my notes over the horses last 5-6 races, warming up, pulling up, knowing who certain horses were in the morning and watching them train for another trainer, etc.
That is how I did it.
Hope that helps.Comment -
I am sure that it is that many lengths or even a few more but it is really important to know that the outside trip can be a much easier trip than an inside trip. By that I mean that maybe the horse on the outside would not have run as well without the benefit of the outside.
This is a struggle all the time. Certain handicappers think that distance covered is key. And while it certainly can be, if they do not take into account the ease, or difficulty of saving more ground, it can be a flawed thought.
That is what makes handicapping so unique. So many variables, sometimes they matter and sometimes they don't.
The best way to figure this in is to see if the outside trip horse WILL run inside and with dirt hitting it in the face. If so, than I put more weight on the fact that it lost so much ground. But if that horse won't run inside or in between and fire, than chances are that horses rider will be instructed to go wide again, because it is the only place they will try and run to their potential. So the benefit of knowing it was too wide last time will be gone because it will be too wide again in all probability.
It can be tricky, but it is not impossible to figure out.Comment -
wow interesting to know...amazing how it just trickles down from track management to owners,trainers and ultimately the horses.. guess the other side is bettors don't like short fields..then the super vets get involved and everyone wants to naturally use them..sounds like if you didn't cheat you were at a huge disadvantage..not a good cycle to be in for the claiming game which comprises a large number of the races carded at just about all tracks
only thing gasper was successful from the mid 80's till the late 90's..maybe I wasn't clear enough explaining it and apologize if that's the case..The stuff about claiming off the drf came when he went tout after leaving the game..al lot of his mailings I received said that so who knows how legit that is...here's the article from 2011 from the drf which explains things further if you want to give it a read. ..
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The reality of hay oats and water in NY prior to 1995 when bute and lasix started being used was that NY had a laundry list of pain killers and bleeding medications that WERE allowed but bute and lasix were not.
The reality was far from the public perception.
I knew that the trainer you named was later than I was talking about. I remember him well.
He had a lot of success.
What I did was to provide a time line of events that led to what I discussed.
As for who was doing what and when, NY would not be where I would know that first hand.
Md. was and I knew exactly who was doing what.
Your quote of "sounds like if you didn't cheat you were at a huge disadvantage" was spot on.
It was very tough to watch yourself get screwed when it happened.
Somewhere in this thread, I went into some detail about that.Comment -
Happy holidays to all contributors of the top horse betting thread of all time!Comment -
STR: Hope things are well. Question about Blinkers. I think you said Blinkers ON gets your attention? What about the shades coming off? Anything specific to look for in both angles? Thx.Comment -
When it comes to a pure speed horse, blks. off will take the edge off the speed horse and allow it to settle a bit more.
Palice Malice in the Derby with blks. on vs. Palice Malice in the Belmont with blks. off. Two totally different horses in those two races.
With middle of the pack runners or closers, it really is a crap shoot. Seems to me that a trainer is trying to do anything to get the horse interested and is just hoping for the best.
Is there a particular horses running style you are thinking about or just in general?Comment -
hey str..wanted to ask you this a few days ago and it was based on a horse's running line a few races back (had nothing to do with the upcoming race)..believe the line I'm giving you below is extremely close to what I saw and I know the distances and one level class drop are correct.
(I don't remember exact levels)..I have touched on this with you in the past but wanted to see how you felt with this particular distance switch and surface..I'm rounding off lengths behind to make presentation easier..
7.5f turf
1-2 *1-1*2-1*4-3 (finished 4th by 3 lengths)
5f turf (within a month of prior start and class drop)
2-2*2-1*1-hd*1-2 (won by 2 lengths @ 47-1)
so showed early speed and faded slightly over race at 7.5f turf..realize there are other factors like trainer,jockey
post position etc but I always like cutbacks of 2+ furlongs with that type of running line ..just feel that's gonna give horse a great foundation for the shorter distanceComment -
It certainly does give a solid foundation for the horse to finish. I am surprised that the horse would only be back 2 lengths when it cut back to 5/8ths. The rule of thumb would be 5-6 lengths in a typical race set up . Of course, that is before you look at the actual set up . Maybe the 5/8ths race lacked serious early speed but that is kind of rare going 5/8ths.
But as for your theory, it is dead on and those types are usually finishing fastest of all .
I like that way of thinking and have looked at turn backs that way for a long time. Mainly because in more cases than not, you get a nice price or even a great price like the one you showed. I keep looking at that line at 47-1 and cant believe that horse could stay that close early unless the 7/8ths was a one time thing and the horse usually flashes early speed going 5/8ths.
Hope that helps and keep up the solid work.Comment -
I'm gonna see if I can find that horse today or tomorrow and get the specific information..I get the part about the horse being further off the pace at 5f off that effort so want to see if he had shown early lick in prior races to that one..I'll let you know and thanks againComment -
what I said was in the ballpark..here's the actual numbers
7.5 running line
1-2 *1-hd *4-2 *6-6 (so actually faded more... 11 horse field)
24.1 *48.1 *1:12 *1:30
5 running line
3-1 *1-hd *1-1 *1-2
21.2 *43.2 *55.1
never showed extreme speed in last 10 (average)..
clm 16k to clm 35k2b..guessing about parallel move..
29 days inbetween. .
average trainer and jockeyLast edited by JBEX; 01-15-17, 12:44 AM.Comment -
Lol. No wonder the horse paid 96.00
The horse has 24 lengths quicker speed AFTER plodding along at 7 1/2 F.
That's incredible.
There must be a nice distance of run up for the short race and I am guessing they start within 10 feet of the pole @ 7 1/2 ?
It's still crazy enough if the run ups are as I guessed.
It's flat out insane if my guess is incorrect.
Just when you think you've seen it all. Lol.
What a crazy game it is.Comment -
even more amazing the turf was soft for the 5f race
just kidding of course..all 3 races above on firm ground..
so the question I have is if this horse had shown speed at 5f prior to this then his preceding slow fractions on the turf at 7.5 would logically not do much for him next out
..that makes sense to me even though obviously he did win that raceLast edited by JBEX; 01-17-17, 10:20 AM.Comment -
Right. A 7 1/2 race in 24 and change will typically dull his early speed next out . Not by a lot but it should not be a peak speed effort at all. That is seemingly what it was.even more amazing the turf was soft for the 5f race
just kidding of course..all 3 races above on firm ground..
so the question I have is if this horse had shown speed at 5f prior to this then his preceding slow fractions on the turf at 7.5 would logically not do much for him next out
..that makes sense to me even though obviously he did win that race
The horse ran times off of the 7 1/2 race that just don't match up with its other performances.
Maybe there was a reason but I sure have no idea why.Comment -
For someone that has this kind of respect and knowledge of the sport is incredible but to actually take the time to share in the way you have putting pen to paper or forum post in this case is nothing short of amazing. A big thanks!Comment
