Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

sept tracking post 11229 (pg 321)



october

continuation of ARMY MULE progeny tracking at baq , gulfstream , kee,santa anita and going to add laurel honor of str who has contributed greatly in evaluating him as a racehorse and sire ..churchill finished today and won't pick it up again when it resumes 10/26..if there are any in the breeders cup races at del mar will include them here and conclude everything with that (11/1)


baq .. belmont at aqu
gpk .. gulfstream
kee .. keeneland
san .. santa anita
lrl .. laurel

upcoming entries in boldface
footnotes in boldface


xx) we1001 nothing (0 tracks)
xx) th1002 nothing (1 track)
01) fr1003 lrl 2 hoor (12-1) out [9-1]
02) sa1004 lrl 6 my l (6-1) 3rd/10 [5-2]
03) sa1004 baq 8 grou (12-1) WON $26.86
04) su1005 kee 6 grad (12-1) 2nd/11 [12-1]
05) su1005 kee 7 paig (4-1) scratched
xx) mo1006 tu1007 off days
xx) we1008 nothing (1 track)
xx) th1009 nothing (2 tracks)
06) fr1010 baq 3 army (3-1) 2nd/6 [2-1]
07) sa1011 baq 5 reme (20-1) out [20-1]
08) sa1011 kee 6 hill (9-5) 2nd/ 7 [9-5]
09) sa1011 woo 10 a li (4-1) out [9-2]
10) su1012 lrl 5 luck (20-1) out [26-1]
11) su1012 gpk 9 mili (5-1) 3rd/9 [3-1]
12) mo1013 fin 4 part (4-1) 2nd/4 [12-1]
xx) tu1014 off day
xx) we1015 nothing
13)th1016 kee 3 bye (8-1) out [20-1]
14)fr1017 kee 1 army (8-1) 4th/8 [4-1]
15) fr1017 kee 6 army (15-1) out [31-1]
16) fr1017 kee 10 mast (12-1) 3rd/11 [14-1]
17) fr1017 gpk 6 snip (10-1) 2nd/7 [5-2]
18) fr1017 lrl 7 hoor (30-1) out [23-1]
19) fr1017 san 1 ovet (3-2) WON $7.80
20) fr1017 san 9 debb (5-2) 3rd/9 [4-5]




(02) neck off winner
(03) 2yo turf route stakes
(04) half length off winner
(09) woodbine g3 stakes
(12) 2yo ny bred stakes .. finger lakes
(12) 4 horse field with a 1-20 fav who won
(14) about 2 lengths from winner
(16) neck off winner
(20) nose 3rd

[JBEX]

21) sa1018 kee 3 priv (6-1) out [6-1]
22) su1019 lrl 6 my l (3-1) out [3-1]
23) su1019 baq 9 dans (4-1) out [3-1]
xx) mo1020 tu1021 off days
24) we1022 kee 3 colo (5-2) 2nd [5-2]
xx) th1023 nothing
xx) fr1024 nothing

[JBEX]

saturday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

keeneland 3 (2:04)
4 private debbie (6-1)

[JBEX]

had saturday as sunday ..changed it..1 running tomorrow at keeneland

[str]

Jbex, been reading your posts. Are you saying that Army Mule is a +EV sire?

I don't think a sire CAN be + EV with ALL of their offspring, but what is so cool about this horse (Army Mule), is that he was ultra competitive in his career and he has passed all of that onto his offspring. If you see an Army Mule off the board, you can bet that in 99% of the cases if not all. the effort was there but circumstances, like class, footing, etc. was not. Simply put, they ALL try their guts out which is really rare.
Some sires are so great that just about all of their offspring can run. But, as great as they are ability wise, some are finicky with trips or positioning and throw in dull efforts at times. For instance , Fierceness checks that box. But I have yet to see an Army Mule run a race where there was no try. That is really rare and IMO , that makes every Army Mule entered a horse worth a long look.
Chucky, remember the old sports illustrated covers that had guys like Butkus, Huff, Singletary, or Tittle on his knees at the goal line with blood running down his forehead.
That is what Army Mule horses are. Blood and guts efforts.

I have such a profound respect for that type of horse and Army Mile is the poster sire for those types. It was an honor to be able to train and be around those few with that deep trait. One of my very fondest memories and the ability did not matter. It was what they brought every time, everyday, in everything they did. What they showed me, made ME better.

Hope that makes sense.

[batt33]

I'm still here catching up on the blog..... the flu"COVID" or what ever came back with a vengeance.... got me good. I enjoyed reading chucky's and Str'sthoughs on winning at gambling... and of course following "army mules"

[JBEX]

I'm still here catching up on the blog..... the flu"COVID" or what ever came back with a vengeance.... got me good. I enjoyed reading chucky's and Str'sthoughs on winning at gambling... and of course following "army mules"

hope you recover quick as possible batt

[JBEX]

sunday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

boldface tracks running


laurel 6 (2:53)
2 my little nico g (3-1)

baq 9 (5:20)
4 danse macabre (4-1)

all time leading army mule earner at over $1M ..5yo mare so guessing this or her next start might be her last .. certainly will be one of the most anticipated foals of one of his daughter's when she's bred

[JBEX]

added the ml to the laurel horse

[JBEX]

sunday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

boldface tracks running


laurel 6 (2:53)
2 my little nico g (3-1)

baq 9 (5:20)
4 danse macabre (4-1)

all time leading army mule earner at over $1M ..5yo mare so guessing this or her next start might be her last .. certainly will be one of the most anticipated foals of one of his daughter's when she's bred

hey str

do you think in a situation like this if the owners don't want to spend $150k + for an elite stallion but would like to breed to one a deal could be reached splitting ownership in the resulting foal ?

[JBEX]

21) sa1018 kee 3 priv (6-1) out [6-1]
22) su1019 lrl 6 my l (3-1) out [3-1]
23) su1019 baq 9 dans (4-1) out [3-1]
xx) mo1020 tu1021 off days

nice job by the 3 morning linemakers

[batt33]

hope you recover quick as possible batt

Thanks JBEX!

[batt33]

hey str

do you think in a situation like this if the owners don't want to spend $150k + for an elite stallion but would like to breed to one a deal could be reached splitting ownership in the resulting foal ?

Some of the shares or "stud fees" come with the group that has the horse and As long as the prospective mare has the pedigree I'm sure deals are made.
So the owner of a share may say "hey" you can use my share and become a partner in the mare and the offspring or whatever they come up with....

[str]

hey str

do you think in a situation like this if the owners don't want to spend $150k + for an elite stallion but would like to breed to one a deal could be reached splitting ownership in the resulting foal ?

I saw Batt's response. He is right about what he said.

So deals are made more often than you might think. It can be an equity stake in a foal, It can be two people saying, we breed them 2 years in a row. Flip a coin on who gets year one and year two. All sorts of stuff like that.

BTW, there was a deal like that coin flip years ago .

Check this one out.

https://www.secretariat.com/the-toss-of-a-coin-the-ownership-of-secretariat/

[JBEX]

Some of the shares or "stud fees" come with the group that has the horse and As long as the prospective mare has the pedigree I'm sure deals are made.
So the owner of a share may say "hey" you can use my share and become a partner in the mare and the offspring or whatever they come up with....

I'm a little confused with this batt and str..I guess if the mare is owned by multiple partners that's an issue also ..but if that's not the case you are saying a couple of possibilities are two seasons with a coin flip or some % split of both or the only foal(s) by the farm and mare owner .. didn't think of it before but now that you linked the secretariat story (which is pretty cool and believe I may have heard at some point) it really does make sense to try two matings..I'm sure a lot of thought and science goes into deciding which elite sire might fit best and then of course they have to be willing to make a deal.. maybe they just land on a $50-100k (or possibly less than that ) stallion but I would think with her race record an elite stallion would be appealing ..how cool would it be for gun runner,justify,into mischief or curlin to be the daddy of her first foal

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I don't think a sire CAN be + EV with ALL of their offspring, but what is so cool about this horse (Army Mule), is that he was ultra competitive in his career and he has passed all of that onto his offspring. If you see an Army Mule off the board, you can bet that in 99% of the cases if not all. the effort was there but circumstances, like class, footing, etc. was not. Simply put, they ALL try their guts out which is really rare.
Some sires are so great that just about all of their offspring can run. But, as great as they are ability wise, some are finicky with trips or positioning and throw in dull efforts at times. For instance , Fierceness checks that box. But I have yet to see an Army Mule run a race where there was no try. That is really rare and IMO , that makes every Army Mule entered a horse worth a long look.
Chucky, remember the old sports illustrated covers that had guys like Butkus, Huff, Singletary, or Tittle on his knees at the goal line with blood running down his forehead.
That is what Army Mule horses are. Blood and guts efforts.

I have such a profound respect for that type of horse and Army Mile is the poster sire for those types. It was an honor to be able to train and be around those few with that deep trait. One of my very fondest memories and the ability did not matter. It was what they brought every time, everyday, in everything they did. What they showed me, made ME better.

Hope that makes sense.

Great stuff, str. I once saw a Rick Barry interview. Interviewer made a comment:
"Greatest sire in NBA history = Rick Barry."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Barry#Personal_life

...Rick = only guy to ever have three sons to play in the NBA. Fourth played in Europe.

[batt33]

I saw Batt's response. He is right about what he said.

So deals are made more often than you might think. It can be an equity stake in a foal, It can be two people saying, we breed them 2 years in a row. Flip a coin on who gets year one and year two. All sorts of stuff like that.

BTW, there was a deal like that coin flip years ago .

Check this one out.

https://www.secretariat.com/the-toss...f-secretariat/

cool story!

[batt33]

I'm a little confused with this batt and str..I guess if the mare is owned by multiple partners that's an issue also ..but if that's not the case you are saying a couple of possibilities are two seasons with a coin flip or some % split of both or the only foal(s) by the farm and mare owner .. didn't think of it before but now that you linked the secretariat story (which is pretty cool and believe I may have heard at some point) it really does make sense to try two matings..I'm sure a lot of thought and science goes into deciding which elite sire might fit best and then of course they have to be willing to make a deal.. maybe they just land on a $50-100k (or possibly less than that ) stallion but I would think with her race record an elite stallion would be appealing ..how cool would it be for gun runner,justify,into mischief or curlin to be the daddy of her first foal

JBEX, all kinds of agreements are made..... Here are a couple of more,
A person has a quality mare.... but no farm. They make a deal with the farm... in return for board and care they will split the profits of the foal.

A farm with a lower stud fee for their horse is trying to drum up interest ( the more offspring, the better chance of getting a nice runner)so they make a deal for an even lower price or "free" ...based on quality of the mare.

sometimes the "elite studs" are just out of reach so they will look along the same"blood lines" or "Nick's" to find a sire that is more affordable.
On a side note just looking at the stud fees for next year "army mule" is one of the few "mid level sires" to have his stud fee go up
from 20,000 to 25,000. most have remained the same or gone down. Alot of the farms have reported out already kinda interested to see where "Sieze the Grey " ends up. Gainsway has not reported yet. He was at 30,000 last season I suspect it will go to 20 to 25.

I agree it would be awesome for her to go to a top flight stallion!

[batt33]

I saw 15 "army mules with 2 outs at the " Fasig tipton sale that started today. Market looks a little soft so far compared to the last few sales.

[JBEX]

JBEX, all kinds of agreements are made..... Here are a couple of more,
A person has a quality mare.... but no farm. They make a deal with the farm... in return for board and care they will split the profits of the foal.

A farm with a lower stud fee for their horse is trying to drum up interest ( the more offspring, the better chance of getting a nice runner)so they make a deal for an even lower price or "free" ...based on quality of the mare.

sometimes the "elite studs" are just out of reach so they will look along the same"blood lines" or "Nick's" to find a sire that is more affordable.
On a side note just looking at the stud fees for next year "army mule" is one of the few "mid level sires" to have his stud fee go up
from 20,000 to 25,000. most have remained the same or gone down. Alot of the farms have reported out already kinda interested to see where "Sieze the Grey " ends up. Gainsway has not reported yet. He was at 30,000 last season I suspect it will go to 20 to 25.

I agree it would be awesome for her to go to a top flight stallion!

see what your saying about deals and the logic behind them
..will be interesting to see what they decide to do .. with yesterday's poor result ,and being it's late in the year, have to think they might consider breeding her next year

I saw army mule's fee went up $5k which is back to what it was in 2024..nice perspective you gave of how it might have a positive meaning considering the market level he's at ..AM fee dropped from 10 to $7.5k in his second season so we'll see what happens with STG

[JBEX]

I saw 15 "army mules with 2 outs at the " Fasig tipton sale that started today. Market looks a little soft so far compared to the last few sales.

wasn't aware and saw what you said on their sales page .. interesting to see what they go for over the next few days

[str]

I saw 15 "army mules with 2 outs at the " Fasig tipton sale that started today. Market looks a little soft so far compared to the last few sales.

I would hope so. Some of those prices were way higher than anticipated.
Unbelievable.

[batt33]

I would hope so. Some of those prices were way higher than anticipated.
Unbelievable.

Yes for sure, I saw around 5 PS horses for a variety of prices. Interesting to see some of the big name consignors do some post sale sales at the lower end. I think the owners of the horses were expecting an active market.

[batt33]

wasn't aware and saw what you said on their sales page .. interesting to see what they go for over the next few days

Pretty interesting so far from one sold at 4 and the other at 60.. with 3 RNA's. Except for the first hip, Most of the others have been light on the dam's side. I haven't looked at the later hips yet.

[JBEX]

Pretty interesting so far from one sold at 4 and the other at 60.. with 3 RNA's. Except for the first hip, Most of the others have been light on the dam's side. I haven't looked at the later hips yet.

2023 was the first year they raised his fee (7.5>12.5)
so he figures to have gotten a better bunch of mares..next year will be interesting to see how his 2yo's fare

[JBEX]

wednesday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

boldface tracks running


keeneland 3 (2:04)
4 colonel caliente (5-2)

[JBEX]

thursday army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/

nothing

[JBEX]

friday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

boldface running

nothing

[batt33]

Pretty interesting so far from one sold at 4 and the other at 60.. with 3 RNA's. Except for the first hip, Most of the others have been light on the dam's side. I haven't looked at the later hips yet.

2023 was the first year they raised his fee (7.5>12.5)
so he figures to have gotten a better bunch of mares..next year will be interesting to see how his 2yo's fare

ARMY MULE-J LA TACHE, CH C
BLAKE-ALBINA THOROUGHBRED SERVICES LLC, AGENT II
KY
11
Video


KENNETH MCPEEK, AGT.
$370,000.
Half to Pam Pam. Pretty good ROI on this colt!

[JBEX]

ARMY MULE-J LA TACHE, CH C
BLAKE-ALBINA THOROUGHBRED SERVICES LLC, AGENT II
KY
11
Video


KENNETH MCPEEK, AGT.
$370,000.
Half to Pam Pam. Pretty good ROI on this colt!

yeah I agree .. for the info fetched a lot imo

[JBEX]

saturday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

boldface running

keeneland 1 (1pm)
1 backstretch rose (10-1)

lot of 1's ..maybe a good omen

[str]

I wanted to be sure and give a BIG shoutout to the Stronach group who has not only done their best to destroy California racing, Maryland racing, and currently working on destroying Florida racing, but have now landed in court by way of a class action suit for joining and participating in the CAW betting. Of course, they are not in court alone but let's give credit where credit is due.

The CAW betting groups are doing everything they can to chase fans away in droves with their unethical betting behavior and rebates for the chosen few. Under their savvy guidance, they are working diligently to destroy horse racing in the United States. They have information that other bettors do not have access to. I should say allegedly although there is clear evidence of that apparently.

With talk of betting after the race has started as well as manipulating the pools, I would think that everyone would want to go to the race track and spend a day getting screwed. You know, bet a 6-1 shot and when it goes into the 1st turn with the lead it flashes down to 9-5. Oh what fun.
Maybe catch an NBA game afterwards for the full body experience.

It makes me second guess ( NOT !)why I left the track after 25 years of playing the game straight while watching cheaters prosper at every turn starting in the very late 80's when the lab testing for racing was so far behind and so underfunded to try and keep up with the influx of new drugs and cocktails that appeared almost monthly.
People that rarely won, were winning bigly. Those that were regular winners, some how all slumped at the same time. AMAZING !

In all seriousness, I'm sickened by what is happening to racing. It hurts to see it. For the longest time I was proud to say that I participated in a game that was much more honest than it was ever given credit for. As of now, I cannot defend it and quite frankly, cringe when it is mentioned to me.

What a crying shame.

[S0BRiquet]

Thanks for posting this str. I just went over to Bloodhorse to get a clue - - sad to see this but I'm not shocked based on the many drops in odds halfway thru a given race. I've had a few winners this past year that were - let's say - ML 12-1, down to 10-1 as they load, and halfway thru race they take the lead and now 3-1... or 9/5 in one case. So maybe that is the reason but I'll never know. FWIW, I've never liked or trusted Frank Stronach. Strictly about the bottom-line and nothing but,, at least that is my view of him. I don't like to beat-up on the powers that be within HorseRacing because they make the sport happen but this guy is one of the few that I just can't get behind (I will refrain from my short list)for his dubious dealings since I've been aware of him.
Last comment = I am sad to see NYRA listed in there as they seem to be the most organized out of the whole bunch - e.g. - if they post that R5 will go off at 3:12 then dammit it goes off at 3:12! By comparison the Gulfstreams and all others are casually late by 6,7,8 minutes and as a rule end up going off at the exact moment of another track. Just coincidence I'm sure, right? ... imo it is games being played between tracks who may not like each other but any which way you cut it, it stinks!