Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

wednesday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

nothing

[ProSportsEdge]

Honestly I think this might happen to some degree in harness racing, but I do not know for sure, but if it is happening anywhere in flat racing other than some rinky dink track as small and backwards as Charlestown at least and probably less than that , I would be stunned. For a trainer to say something like that at let's say Pimlico , Del. Park , Parx. is simply unheard of. In my time it did not exist. If you could give me more info as to who would do this or where the race took place I could better speak too it. Please let me know.

Yeah, I get what you’re saying — at the bigger tracks like Pimlico or Parx, that kind of thing would be shocking to see happen. But in smaller circuits, especially in harness racing, you do hear stories pop up now and then. It’s rare, but not impossible. Curious to see if anyone else here’s actually witnessed it firsthand.

[JBEX]

thursday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

nothing

boldface = tracks running

[JBEX]

friday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

baq 3 (2:15)
6 army proud (3-1)

boldface = tracks running

[ProSportsEdge]

First of all , do remember that I was a professional trainer and not a professional gambler but with that said, let me try to help.
You stated that you look at speed figures first. I rarely if ever look at them at all.
To get a full explanation of that , go to a thread from 4/25/11 named "Assigning numbers when gauging a horses performance". Follow all of my comments and that should answer that.
Performed well lately was next. Will get to that in a minute.
Workouts were next. I will cut and paste from a PM that someone sent me as to why the average handicapper should not pay ANY attention to them.( My opinion).
Best jockeys: Let's start there. Instead of trying to bet on the best jockeys I might suggest finding the jockeys that you do not want to bet on. So start off that way.
It is great to play a race with the leading rider but chances are you are playing a horse that has less betting value than he/she should because of that. Many riders have the ability to win so try and find the guys that hit consistently under 8 or 9% winners and ride there share of live horses and maybe avoid them if possible . Can not always blame the rider but every track has under rated and over rated riders. Also, some riders have a particular strength or weakness. That is, excellent turf rider or very good speed rider or good closing rider, always goes wide rider, etc. If the riders strength fits the horse you like , you might have an edge . If a very good speed rider is riding a dead closer, that is not so good. This is easier said than done but if you follow a certain track consistently, the information is there to be learned. Remember, knowledge is power. The game is pari mutual so yes the house takes it's cut but you are playing against the other players. Work to know more than they do.( Also, try to avoid the higher takeout pools.They vary from track to track so find a track that is not killing you . This information is always on the program or racing form, usually before the first race).
Horses that performed well lately also lead to favorites. Sometimes that is fine but everyone sees that.
So try this approach:
First of all, READ AND UNDERSTAND THE CONDITIONS of the race.This is so important ! Is it an open claimer , nw/2, nw/3, nw/ last 6 months. Condition allowance, starter handicap, etc. For more clarity, go to the racing secretary's office at your track and ask someone for a current condition book.They are free and probably sitting out for trainers to pick up. They come out every 2-3 weeks. This book will tell you what races are scheduled for days to come. You will start to understand how the races are written.
Once you have read the conditions , go through the race without throwing anyone out and get an overview . Then, go through a second time and try to split the race in to categories. Pure speed , position horses( lay 3rd-5th) and closers.
Now you have a sense of how the race might shape up. One pure speed and 7 closers has me liking the pure speed already and I am just getting started. ( Remember, pace makes the race. This years Derby was so slow for the first 3/4s that Dialed In had no chance to catch up. He actually ran quite well if you look at the charts and calculate his last 1/2 mile. A half in 46 and 3/4s in 1:10 and change or 1:11 and he is right there). Five pure speeds and I am liking the other 2 or 3 in all probability. Once you have done that, you can try to determine by post position the probable position of each horse. Knowing that a horse needs to be at least a length and a half faster if he is outside to be able to drop over in front of an inside speed horse allows you to project the positions on the track each might be in when dealing with the turns.
With the race now set up, look at each horses ability . Keep in mind however that the horse that went wire to wire last time might be a monster or might have benefited from a race that was void of any other speed, thus making him look better than he actually was. Your "performed well lately" comment needs more insight to be sure that there was not a reason other than the horses raw ability that led to his good performance. This is why following the same track is beneficial as compared to trying to chase multiple tracks.
When you have the race projected out , it should become clearer as to who might get a good or bad trip. That , along with a horses ability will allow you to start taking stands against some horses.
So before we get any more technical , I would like you to try that approach. Give it some time and see if that does not help you find solid plays. If anything , it will allow you to feel as though you have a basic understanding of what the jocks and trainers are trying to accomplish.
Lastly, WATCH THE REPLAYS!. There is much to learn from them . I will also post a PM about that when I find it.
Hope that helps get you started.

Really good advice, appreciate you breaking it down clearly. The part about understanding race conditions and grouping horses by style makes a lot of sense. Most people just chase speed figures and miss the bigger picture. Watching replays and learning rider habits takes time, but you’re right, that’s where the real edge comes from. Great to hear this kind of insight from someone who’s actually trained horses.

[str]

Really good advice, appreciate you breaking it down clearly. The part about understanding race conditions and grouping horses by style makes a lot of sense. Most people just chase speed figures and miss the bigger picture. Watching replays and learning rider habits takes time, but you’re right, that’s where the real edge comes from. Great to hear this kind of insight from someone who’s actually trained horses.

Often times, the difference between a horse earning a good, mediocre or bad figure is the trip they get. So finding a tough trip and a decent figure is gold. Finding a decent figure and a perfect trip is play against gold.
So yes, it’s usually about “How” the figure was earned.

Many handicappers do not consider this and it can be a tremendous advantage if you do.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1986 KY Derby. I found the clip I was looking for:

(27:00) Al Michaels liked to play the ponies. He has a great line here: "Ferdinand at 17/1. A few years back you couldn't get Shoemaker at 17/1 if you were riding Mister Ed."

...It's a great line. And Willie did in fact win with Ferdinand just a few minutes later. Made a great inside run late.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If you like that clip (above), keep watching:

(29:30) There's a nice segment on Wayne and Jeff Lukas.

[JBEX]

1986 KY Derby. I found the clip I was looking for:


(27:00) Al Michaels liked to play the ponies. He has a great line here: "Ferdinand at 17/1. A few years back you couldn't get Shoemaker at 17/1 if you were riding Mister Ed."

...It's a great line. And Willie did in fact win with Ferdinand just a few minutes later. Made a great inside run late.

1st derby winner i ever picked (just shy of 23 and less than 10 attempts lol)..believe he was last during the race , paid over 20-1 and the shoe was in his mid 50's (didn't watch the video yet which I assume would confirm these things )

[JBEX]

saturday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

baq 5 (2:16)
1 remember the chief (20-1)

kee 6 (3:40)
8 hillerito (9-5)

woodbine 10 (5:55) g3 stakes
5 a little frisky (4-1)



boldface = track's running

[JBEX]

added another above

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1st derby winner i ever picked (just shy of 23 and less than 10 attempts lol)..believe he was last during the race , paid over 20-1 and the shoe was in his mid 50's (didn't watch the video yet which I assume would confirm these things )

Yeah, Jbex. Shoe is in there multiple times.

Ferdinand was trained by Charlie Whittingham. So, Ferdinand was a sentimental pick. Al Michael's quip on "back of Mister Ed" was so good.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Another classic Derby hit. This might be a one-of-a-kind pick.

I can't ever recall an on-air analyst calling his shot at 50/1+. And then hitting it moments later! So, big props to Ken Rudolph.

[JBEX]

Yeah, Jbex. Shoe is in there multiple times.

Ferdinand was trained by Charlie Whittingham. So, Ferdinand was a sentimental pick. Al Michael's quip on "back of Mister Ed" was so good.

absolutely

[str]

Another classic Derby hit. This might be a one-of-a-kind pick.

I can't ever recall an on-air analyst calling his shot at 50/1+. And then hitting it moments later! So, big props to Ken Rudolph.

Pace makes the race Chucky. A half in 45 and change will cook the best of them.

Great to see you in here!

I remember the Mr Ed quote. That was so good. An instant classic.

[JBEX]

sunday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

laurel 5 (2:27)
2 lucky esther (20-1)

gulfstream 9 (5:07)
2 militia (5-1)

boldface tracks running

saturday's results posted .. 11279

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Pace makes the race Chucky. A half in 45 and change will cook the best of them.

Great to see you in here!

I remember the Mr Ed quote. That was so good. An instant classic.

Salud, str. I've come to appreciate the concept of Pace over time.

The top jocks understand pace. They instinctively know how much horse they have left. It's amazing to watch the speed-duels cancel out the early leaders.

[JBEX]

hey str

what do you think was going on with the army mule at laurel going into the 1st turn .. maybe the jockey came out of the stirrup and recovered ?

[JBEX]

monday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

finger lakes 4 (2:27) 2yo ny bred stakes
1 party in the army (4-1)

5 horse field with a 4-5 ml fav #3 artic beast

posted today's results (11279)

running tracks are boldface

[str]

hey str

what do you think was going on with the army mule at laurel going into the 1st turn .. maybe the jockey came out of the stirrup and recovered ?

Well you found a doozy here JBEX. Let's try and unpack this mess.

The 2 horse was Lucky Esther. She broke fine and I could not see where the rider lost his stirrup but it did look like that going around the first turn and we cannot see that outside stirrup. But what occurred first is, that she tried to run off when asked to rate. She REALLY wanted to run, and quite frankly, I'm not sure why the rider did not let her. They were not running too fast at all. Actually, rather slow.

In hindsight, if he does not relinquish the lead right away, the other rider probably sits 2nd . But... he fought her and that fight got ugly as it went on until they were going down the backside. (Looks like she has a light mouth anyway, so you cannot wrangle those types of fillies with the bit or you will get exactly what you saw).
The problem with that was, they were going very slow. From that point on, it was already over for her.

Worst part of this is they ran the second half of the race faster than they ran the first half of the race. That just made the mistake of this rider look worse still.

On a side note, keep an eye on the winner. A firster that closed into fast late fractions. She can run some. Probably win a nw/2 with ease next out.

As for Lucky Esther, maybe a change of rider and let her do her thing. She will almost certainly run better next out.

Thanks JBEX.

[str]

Can I ask you folks that read this a question please?

It's not so much about horses but it is about betting in general.

It's Gambling. Any sport, anything.

We gamble in life everyday. Not on games, on insurance, mortgage rate, you name it. It's everywhere.

I have tried talking about this before in small pieces here and there but I just don't know if people are interested or not.

When it comes to betting, people have varying ways that they want to participate in it. But the common theme is that you cannot possibly win in the end. ,That is not true. It's all about the approach. The mindset. The mission.

Let me know if it is worth my time or yours to bring this discussion in here.

I don't want to waste your time or mine unless it is worth while doing.

Thanks everyone.

[Optional]

Can I ask you folks that read this a question please?

It's not so much about horses but it is about betting in general.

It's Gambling. Any sport, anything.

We gamble in life everyday. Not on games, on insurance, mortgage rate, you name it. It's everywhere.

I have tried talking about this before in small pieces here and there but I just don't know if people are interested or not.

When it comes to betting, people have varying ways that they want to participate in it. But the common theme is that you cannot possibly win in the end. ,That is not true. It's all about the approach. The mindset. The mission.

Let me know if it is worth my time or yours to bring this discussion in here.

I don't want to waste your time or mine unless it is worth while doing.

Thanks everyone.

I think anyone can win, if they choose to. But also think most want the rush and that's more important than the effort required to win.

[JBEX]

Well you found a doozy here JBEX. Let's try and unpack this mess.

The 2 horse was Lucky Esther. She broke fine and I could not see where the rider lost his stirrup but it did look like that going around the first turn and we cannot see that outside stirrup. But what occurred first is, that she tried to run off when asked to rate. She REALLY wanted to run, and quite frankly, I'm not sure why the rider did not let her. They were not running too fast at all. Actually, rather slow.

In hindsight, if he does not relinquish the lead right away, the other rider probably sits 2nd . But... he fought her and that fight got ugly as it went on until they were going down the backside. (Looks like she has a light mouth anyway, so you cannot wrangle those types of fillies with the bit or you will get exactly what you saw).
The problem with that was, they were going very slow. From that point on, it was already over for her.

Worst part of this is they ran the second half of the race faster than they ran the first half of the race. That just made the mistake of this rider look worse still.

On a side note, keep an eye on the winner. A firster that closed into fast late fractions. She can run some. Probably win a nw/2 with ease next out.

As for Lucky Esther, maybe a change of rider and let her do her thing. She will almost certainly run better next out.

Thanks JBEX.

no problem str and appreciate the response..saw the horse throwing her head in the air so what you said probably should have been my first guess ..you would know better than me but seems for a 2yo going 2 turns for the first time in her 3rd start not overdoing it to rate or let het ..run on makes more sense .. get the experience doing it without a fight and make necessary adjustments if needed in the next start

see what you mean with the winner closing into a fast final fraction ..try to keep an eye out for her

[JBEX]

Can I ask you folks that read this a question please?

It's not so much about horses but it is about betting in general.

It's Gambling. Any sport, anything.

We gamble in life everyday. Not on games, on insurance, mortgage rate, you name it. It's everywhere.

I have tried talking about this before in small pieces here and there but I just don't know if people are interested or not.

When it comes to betting, people have varying ways that they want to participate in it. But the common theme is that you cannot possibly win in the end. ,That is not true. It's all about the approach. The mindset. The mission.

Let me know if it is worth my time or yours to bring this discussion in here.

I don't want to waste your time or mine unless it is worth while doing.

Thanks everyone.

would be interested to hear your perspectives on this..I agree with mindset,mission and I would add a couple of more m's money management to the things necessary for success .. let me be clear this has always been a casual thing for me and I have never put it all together.. the money,time ,effort and quite frankly my skill set falls short to get this done

I love trying to find spots where I feel I might have an edge on a race card .. lot's of fun even on a casual basis

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Can I ask you folks that read this a question please?

It's not so much about horses but it is about betting in general.

It's Gambling. Any sport, anything.

We gamble in life everyday. Not on games, on insurance, mortgage rate, you name it. It's everywhere.

I have tried talking about this before in small pieces here and there but I just don't know if people are interested or not.

When it comes to betting, people have varying ways that they want to participate in it. But the common theme is that you cannot possibly win in the end. ,That is not true. It's all about the approach. The mindset. The mission.

Let me know if it is worth my time or yours to bring this discussion in here.

I don't want to waste your time or mine unless it is worth while doing.

Thanks everyone.

Hi, str. I think I grasp the context of your post. I'll give a few ideas:

*Gambling is sometimes seen in a negative context. "Degenerate gambling" and "gambling problem" are terms you hear. It's not a "problem" if you're winning.

I think GAMBLING is often misunderstood. You're trying to project a future outcome in a way that you think you have an edge. It's challenging but not impossible.

LIFE is a four-letter word. RISK is a four-letter word as well. So, gambling is truly risk assessment.

You are correct in saying there's risk at every turn. Risk in walking across the street, risk in driving your car, etc. It's everywhere.

Gambling is just an assessment on future events. We'll find out soon enough if we're right. THAT's why they play the games.

[JBEX]

tuesday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

none run tomorrow

2nd of 4 at finger lakes today ..1-20 ($2.10) fav won and the 2nd choice army mule was 2nd [12-1]

[str]

Hi, str. I think I grasp the context of your post. I'll give a few ideas:

*Gambling is sometimes seen in a negative context. "Degenerate gambling" and "gambling problem" are terms you hear. It's not a "problem" if you're winning.

I think GAMBLING is often misunderstood. You're trying to project a future outcome in a way that you think you have an edge. It's challenging but not impossible.

LIFE is a four-letter word. RISK is a four-letter word as well. So, gambling is truly risk assessment.

You are correct in saying there's risk at every turn. Risk in walking across the street, risk in driving your car, etc. It's everywhere.

Gambling is just an assessment on future events. We'll find out soon enough if we're right. THAT's why they play the games.

Agree Chucky.

I think that in order to categorize it, you need to understand it. As you said, it is misunderstood.

There is an adrenaline rush with gambling. People get stuck on that. If you get past the adrenaline rush, it is a mental puzzle that is played everyday. I hear how you can't win if you gamble. Wrong. But... the will to win needs to be the focus NOT the will to have action. Two entirely different things.

Having met you, I know you are analytical and as they say, " you get it". That is probably the biggest hurdle that gamblers have. Overcome THAT, and the other stuff just seems to fall into place.

[JBEX]

wednesday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

none run tomorrow

tracks running in boldface

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Agree Chucky.

I think that in order to categorize it, you need to understand it. As you said, it is misunderstood.

There is an adrenaline rush with gambling. People get stuck on that. If you get past the adrenaline rush, it is a mental puzzle that is played everyday. I hear how you can't win if you gamble. Wrong. But... the will to win needs to be the focus NOT the will to have action. Two entirely different things.

Having met you, I know you are analytical and as they say, " you get it". That is probably the biggest hurdle that gamblers have. Overcome THAT, and the other stuff just seems to fall into place.

Salud, str. In my early days of betting, I would literally get the heart palpitations during MNF. On that last-minute drive to determine the ATS winner, I would get a cardio workout.

After a while, you come to realize that there will be more games tomorrow. If it's not a football game, maybe it's a race at Keeneland. But there will be more opportunities.

I've also come to realize the connection between Gambling and Investing. Gambling is really just a sub-section of Investing. If you're losing consistently, it's time to re-balance your portfolio.

[JBEX]

thursday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

keeneland 3 (2:04)
2 bye bye brady (8-1)

[str]

Salud, str. In my early days of betting, I would literally get the heart palpitations during MNF. On that last-minute drive to determine the ATS winner, I would get a cardio workout.

After a while, you come to realize that there will be more games tomorrow. If it's not a football game, maybe it's a race at Keeneland. But there will be more opportunities.

I've also come to realize the connection between Gambling and Investing. Gambling is really just a sub-section of Investing. If you're losing consistently, it's time to re-balance your portfolio.

Agree Chucky.

In a related story, I have a friend who loves the action, and bets modestly enough that he cannot get hurt. He has fun. A lot of fun. He very much enjoys it. A small parlay, or those kind of bet very small, possibly win quite a bit. In todays world of everything offered, that is probably fairly common. He totally gets it. He has decided that he enjoys that avenue of betting instead of maybe being very selective and trying to bet more per game but many less games. I think that is a dilemma that many players have.

When I worked at the track, there were days, weeks, even months when I did not bet a dime. Yet, I was there for every race scrutinizing each horse, ride, trip, etc. for future claiming purposes. Every now and then, I would see something that just screamed " bet this horse next time in the right spot". Honestly, I didn't way more than I did because I was talking about betting 50 bucks but was busy scanning horses to claim for 5-20K bucks. So my attention obviously was on the claiming end of things. But, if I ran into any number of people like my old coach, or Morgan Wooten of Dematha High School basketball fame, or heck, many different people I knew, I would recommend they bet a few bucks on that horse that I had watched. It worked well for them.

So, with that logic, let's see if we can fit that into betting on a football, or any season.
Make your action plays, that you are totally comfortable with, knowing it is entertainment money , but also allow yourself to make 1,2,3,4, plays a year if and when you see a play that is fully justified and checks all the boxes. If you don't see one, don't force it. If you do, make it a separate play, one and done. Then, you might wait 3,4,6,8 weeks or maybe never for the rest of that year, on the next play that is screaming at you and checks ALL the boxes. You do NOT have to make a play for a year if you choose. But, you are always looking for that one that really looks great to you.
By doing that, you are creating another column to keep score of. First, your weekly action plays for enjoyment. The other is a value play that might come only a couple times a year, if at all, on any given season.

That starts a process of trying to select big value plays each year that are fairly rare. And NO, it just doesn't work from day 1. It took me a lifetime to figure out and implement this stuff. But it absolutely works, at least for me !

This can go for any sport. And, the more you do it, just like anything else, the better you will be at it. Personally, I love this and have done it for many a year. I would only suggest someone try it and see if it might work for them. It really makes you think in a good healthy way IMO, and adds overall intrigue to the season as it gives you more to consider.

Hopefully, that might work for some.

[JBEX]

friday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

boldface tracks are running


gulfstream 6 (3:30)
7 sniper jack (10-1)


keeneland 1 (1pm)
1 army nurse (8-1)


keeneland 6 (3:40)
3 army girl (15-1)


keeneland 10 (5:48)
5 master mule (12-1)


laurel 7 (3:25)
2 hooraw (30-1)


santa anita 1 (4pm)
2 oveta's hobby (3-2)

santa anita 9 (8:03)
3 debby's gal (5-2)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

friday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

boldface tracks are running


gulfstream 6 (3:30)
7 sniper jack (10-1)


keeneland 1 (1pm)
1 army nurse (8-1)


keeneland 6 (3:40)
3 army girl (15-1)


keeneland 10 (5:48)
5 master mule (12-1)


laurel 7 (3:25)
2 hooraw (30-1)


santa anita 1 (4pm)
2 oveta's hobby (3-2)

santa anita 9 (8:03)
3 debby's gal (5-2)

Jbex, been reading your posts. Are you saying that Army Mule is a +EV sire?

[JBEX]

Jbex, been reading your posts. Are you saying that Army Mule is a +EV sire?

when you say +EV i guess you mean do i think he's an edge long haul vs actual numbers that prove it because I don't have the latter..whether you can just play them without a capping filter and be profitable I'm not sure .. I think if you do play them and use handicapping you need to be aggressive and only eliminate one's that look real bad.. of course you will get burnt on occasion doing that and "looking real bad" is kind of a subjective thing anyway .. nothing is black and white with this chucky but playing his progeny imo at minimum is not a bad direction to go

I feel he's a bit under the radar,gets a good % (from casual observation) of solid runners especially factoring his price point as a stallion .. can run well on all surfaces,track conditions and distances imo ..str likes him also and feels his progeny as a whole try much harder than your average stallion ..

[JBEX]

saturday by army mule @
baq/gulfstream/laurel/keeneland/santa anita

boldface tracks are running

keeneland 3 (2:04)
4 private debbie (6-1)


not going to record results here or in my thread till tomorrow