Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

by army mule(s)

oak R3 @ 2:02
#11 brooklyn drew (15-1)



gulfstream R7 @ 3:50
#1 bel pensiero (9-2)



turfway..R6 @ 6:45
#2 lalily (5-1)





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#11 brooklyn drew (15-1)

Could not get a report on her.



#1 bel pensiero (9-2)
Always tries. Love a horse like her. 2nd in the Regret at Monmouth. Man that was a big time race back in the day.
All she does is run her heart out every time. Probably will today as well. So cool.


#2 lalily (5-1)


May foal that ran as a baby in June?? Really?

She breaks running but she is a mess. Darn shame. Drops enough that you never know but needs help from somebody, anybody.

[str]

#11 brooklyn drew (15-1)

Could not get a report on her.



#1 bel pensiero (9-2)
Always tries. Love a horse like her. 2nd in the Regret at Monmouth. Man that was a big time race back in the day.
All she does is run her heart out every time. Probably will today as well. So cool.


#2 lalily (5-1)


May foal that ran as a baby in June?? Really?

She breaks running but she is a mess. Darn shame. Drops enough that you never know but needs help from somebody, anybody.

I found Brooklyn Drew. Man, this race seems awfully salty for a nw/2 lifetime. Several horses in here that might end up really solid. That said, this one has a chance but with so much early speed in here, maybe allow her to, break and settle, wherever that might be, . If she breaks well, fine, but if not, rushing her looks difficult. Hope she gets a nice break from the outside and can get herself together early so as to get into the flow.

[JBEX]

I found Brooklyn Drew. Man, this race seems awfully salty for a nw/2 lifetime. Several horses in here that might end up really solid. That said, this one has a chance but with so much early speed in here, maybe allow her to, break and settle, wherever that might be, . If she breaks well, fine, but if not, rushing her looks difficult. Hope she gets a nice break from the outside and can get herself together early so as to get into the flow.

yes is a tough spot with all the other speed and maybe needs one off the long layoff..winning an allowance race there is like winning a listed stakes or better at a middle rung track

[batt33]

#11 brooklyn drew (15-1)

Could not get a report on her.



#1 bel pensiero (9-2)
Always tries. Love a horse like her. 2nd in the Regret at Monmouth. Man that was a big time race back in the day.
All she does is run her heart out every time. Probably will today as well. So cool.


#2 lalily (5-1)


May foal that ran as a baby in June?? Really?

She breaks running but she is a mess. Darn shame. Drops enough that you never know but needs help from somebody, anybody.

I found Brooklyn Drew. Man, this race seems awfully salty for a nw/2 lifetime. Several horses in here that might end up really solid. That said, this one has a chance but with so much early speed in here, maybe allow her to, break and settle, wherever that might be, . If she breaks well, fine, but if not, rushing her looks difficult. Hope she gets a nice break from the outside and can get herself together early so as to get into the flow.

<br>
<br>
I'll have to take a look! Hopefully get to watch a race or two along with the Rebel..

I'm with you on that May foal running in June...WTH

[JBEX]

#11 brooklyn drew (15-1)

Could not get a report on her.



#1 bel pensiero (9-2)
Always tries. Love a horse like her. 2nd in the Regret at Monmouth. Man that was a big time race back in the day.
All she does is run her heart out every time. Probably will today as well. So cool.


#2 lalily (5-1)


May foal that ran as a baby in June?? Really?

She breaks running but she is a mess. Darn shame. Drops enough that you never know but needs help from somebody, anybody.

yeah bel pensiero another amazingly consistent horse..only off efforts were at a mile and another appears to be a slow break from the rail..looks like a bred/owned and trained by the same guy and he's someone who's name I remember going back a long ways ..probably you do also .. how about breeding to AM,having it be a NJ bred and compete for some really nice statebred purses .. worked well here and sure others will try to do that in coming years with the fee being so reasonable



yes really good point with the late foal/early start with lalily and this is probably one of the more extreme examples with that..
then back in 12 days at a tougher venue and then ehh let's try the turf ..crazy imo
I like this spot..back in half the time as between first two starts off the layoff..could see her getting the lead and having the fitness to hold on ..also one of if not the top jocks at the track who also happens to be a 5lb bug stays aboard

[JBEX]

lot of AM going on with bel pensiero..trainer,owner,breeder (same) and sire share the same initials lol

[str]

<br>
<br>
I'll have to take a look! Hopefully get to watch a race or two along with the Rebel..

I'm with you on that May foal running in June...WTH

Maybe it was a condition like: " for 2 year old fillies who have only actually been 2 for a week." That move deserves a C'Mon Man.

[str]

lot of AM going on with bel pensiero..trainer,owner,breeder (same) and sire share the same initials lol

This trainer has been around for a long time. Don't think I ever met him, ( maybe?) IDK, but pretty sure he won maybe the Whitney at Saratoga in the early 90's?? Was a Jersey guy, I'm pretty sure. He certainly knows what he is doing.

[JBEX]

#11 brooklyn drew (15-1)

Could not get a report on her.



#1 bel pensiero (9-2)
Always tries. Love a horse like her. 2nd in the Regret at Monmouth. Man that was a big time race back in the day.
All she does is run her heart out every time. Probably will today as well. So cool.


#2 lalily (5-1)


May foal that ran as a baby in June?? Really?

She breaks running but she is a mess. Darn shame. Drops enough that you never know but needs help from somebody, anybody.

think of the other extreme for a 2yo ..a jan foal debuting in dec.. 36 months old vs this horse who's 25 months old .. the average difference in physical and mental development must be huge



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[JBEX]

#11 brooklyn drew (15-1)

Could not get a report on her.



#1 bel pensiero (9-2)
Always tries. Love a horse like her. 2nd in the Regret at Monmouth. Man that was a big time race back in the day.
All she does is run her heart out every time. Probably will today as well. So cool.


#2 lalily (5-1)


May foal that ran as a baby in June?? Really?

She breaks running but she is a mess. Darn shame. Drops enough that you never know but needs help from somebody, anybody.

lost the bob but ran a great race as she always does..probably run at least one more here and then back to mth to face jersey breds .. did run well in the regret stakes (open company) as you mentioned .. good shot at a nice year if she stays healthy


brooklyn drew just got pressed into submission but didn't give it up so bad..would think she'll benefit from that and be a lot tougher customer next out ..be interesting if she flipped posts with the 12 how that race may have went .. early enough in her career that she could possibly still learn to press or stalk the pace ??



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[JBEX]

monday..make up card for saturday


by army mule ..oak R9 #1 (20-1) @ 5:51
filly .. guess who


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[str]

monday..make up card for saturday


by army mule ..oak R9 #1 (20-1) @ 5:51
filly .. guess who


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Don't tell me. It's our girl who never saw a long van ride she didn't like before a race.

An 8 horse field. She will most likely run her brains out and be 5th or 6th I assume.

I just hate seeing that. You could throw darts at a spinning wheel and find better spots.

The phrase, "You don't know what you got, till it's gone", comes to mind here. Ugh.

[lesterdymond]

You seen a barn get spiritual or have any traditions to get out of the funk STR ?

Santeria etc

[JBEX]

Don't tell me. It's our girl who never saw a long van ride she didn't like before a race.

An 8 horse field. She will most likely run her brains out and be 5th or 6th I assume.

I just hate seeing that. You could throw darts at a spinning wheel and find better spots.

The phrase, "You don't know what you got, till it's gone", comes to mind here. Ugh.

I see good and bad here..

bad is simply I think she's a cut below a listed stakes horse (and that's not unimportant)

good is circumstances are more normal here..

against fillies..as you know twice against boys in last 4 .. also the churchill race was very fast

proper rest ..no shipping and racing again in a week's time..I mean the combination as obviously she shipped to oaklawn

no artificial..think that's excusable and wasn't a bad run anyway that day

jockey is familiar and gets her in a potential realistic spot


she's capable of passing horses and lots of speed going here but breaking from the rail not ideal

would not be shocked if she ran well here ..price will certainly be right

[Madison]

OP R6 #8 ML 8-1 R Heisman

Guy been in traffic in recent starts. Think he could get some free run here.

Negative? First at OP after running on the West coast. Last 1/18.

[JBEX]

I see good and bad here..

bad is simply I think she's a cut below a listed stakes horse (and that's not unimportant)

good is circumstances are more normal here..

against fillies..as you know twice against boys in last 4 .. also the churchill race was very fast

proper rest ..no shipping and racing again in a week's time..I mean the combination as obviously she shipped to oaklawn

no artificial..think that's excusable and wasn't a bad run anyway that day

jockey is familiar and gets her in a potential realistic spot


she's capable of passing horses and lots of speed going here but breaking from the rail not ideal

would not be shocked if she ran well here ..price will certainly be right

72-1 and 3 lengths off at the stretch call while losing by 10..no shot being pressed on the rail past the quarter pole but not winning this race from any post
.. I think it would've been a better result with a middle to outside post ..possibly a lone frontrunner or pressing the pace breaking from there




I think clm 50kn2l is where she belongs..nice purse and if taken,wins plus what she's won already the owners will have done well with her



.

[str]

lost the bob but ran a great race as she always does..probably run at least one more here and then back to mth to face jersey breds .. did run well in the regret stakes (open company) as you mentioned .. good shot at a nice year if she stays healthy


brooklyn drew just got pressed into submission but didn't give it up so bad..would think she'll benefit from that and be a lot tougher customer next out ..be interesting if she flipped posts with the 12 how that race may have went .. early enough in her career that she could possibly still learn to press or stalk the pace ??



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Lost the bob…
Totally agree. She should have a nice year of she stays healthy. I appreciate these types of horses so much. You can never take what a trying, hard working horse gives, which is an all out effort. Whatever they can give, they do. Such an admirable trait when you have one like that.

Brooklyn Drew…
When you measure effort, like you’re doing, it can sometimes allow you to plug that into the upcoming race and see it take shape beforehand .
It makes that particular horse more predictable doesn’t it.

[str]

You seen a barn get spiritual or have any traditions to get out of the funk STR ?

Santeria etc

Well, No bonfires allowed around the barns but there are some good luck things that happen. Probably the most widespread is when you geld a horse you throw the gonads on the barn roof right away for good luck. Hey man, don’t ask me, that was there when I first showed up. Lol.

The old poop in the post parade has been a favorite of bettors forever as has betting lucky numbers like 7-11.

My favorite has to be when the pigeons at Pimlico who sat above the outdoor seating under the high overhang
took a crap, if it hit you, they always said, don’t wash it off. It’s good luck. I had to laugh when guys would walk around with pigeon crap on their hats or jackets. Only at the track.
There were more for sure but when you hear about them, I just shake my head and wonder if a form of intelligent life somewhere is watching and laughing at how weird we all are.

Thanks Lester. You have great questions ! Always enjoy them.

[str]

You seen a barn get spiritual or have any traditions to get out of the funk STR ?

Santeria etc

A barn funk is not that tough to predict when it comes to claiming stables. A guy like Chad Brown just gets horses who have 3-4 wins in them even if they can’t win stakes because they are so well meant from the beginning. But a claiming barn that has a great, high percentage meet will more times than not, struggle at the next meeting. Why? Because the horses will run through their conditions that they were running and winning and that barn will either have to run them up the ladder against better horses and that usually means the winning slows down or the horses get claimed and the trainer needs to replace those winners with new horses and that can take a while to get the new horse In winning form.
A handicapping note that someone that follows a circuit year round should always look at. Same thing in reverse for the barn that typically does well but had a not so good meeting. Look for that barn to improve the next meet after their stock has been beaten and has the opportunity to drop down in company.

Both scenarios show up and if you are anticipating it, the gambler has scenarios to consider that other gamblers are not.
Try it. It works.

[str]

72-1 and 3 lengths off at the stretch call while losing by 10..no shot being pressed on the rail past the quarter pole but not winning this race from any post
.. I think it would've been a better result with a middle to outside post ..possibly a lone frontrunner or pressing the pace breaking from there




I think clm 50kn2l is where she belongs..nice purse and if taken,wins plus what she's won already the owners will have done well with her



.

72-1 and 3 lengths off at the stretch. Wow. What a nice horse. I used to absolutely love a horse like that.
So special JBEX. She is awesome!

[str]

It will take years to iron out all the mistakes that HISA will need to work through but with that said, it is far and away the best thing that could ever happen to USA thoroughbred racing.

Too late for me but that’s just fine. Thank goodness they are getting things right.

It makes me incredibly happy to see.

I hope they make as big an example out of these participants as possible.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/282826/hisa-ties-seven-equine-deaths-to-sweeping-pa-conspiracy

[JBEX]

72-1 and 3 lengths off at the stretch. Wow. What a nice horse. I used to absolutely love a horse like that.
So special JBEX. She is awesome!

sure you'd agree just needs to be placed in the right spot and she'll probably win within a couple of starts
..have to think mentally that must feel good for a horse who's been running over it's head and wins comfortably over a lesser field ..maybe even a carryover effect for at least a race or two afterwards


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[str]

sure you'd agree just needs to be placed in the right spot and she'll probably win within a couple of starts
..have to think mentally that must feel good for a horse who's been running over it's head and wins comfortably over a lesser field ..maybe even a carryover effect for at least a race or two afterwards


.

No question about it JBEX. It speaks to that seemingly crazy thing I said about sometimes it’s easier to win 3 in a row than it is 2 in a row.
I wonder if there is actually a stat on that? Too many variables probably to have merit but as crazy as it sounded, I still believe it in plenty of scenarios.

[str]

sure you'd agree just needs to be placed in the right spot and she'll probably win within a couple of starts
..have to think mentally that must feel good for a horse who's been running over it's head and wins comfortably over a lesser field ..maybe even a carryover effect for at least a race or two afterwards


.

Oh yeah, that carryover effect is real.

Horses know when they win. Some take it to another level.

If you look at how stoic some horses that win more than they lose prance around it’s like they are cocky. Lol.

Go back and look at Batts horse Straight No Chaser.
Correct me if I have them mixed up but wasn’t this horse antsy and washed out pre race last year. And somewhat agitated at times.
The horse I saw the other day was strutting around like a peacock and cool calm and collected.
He really does see the camera these days and he hams it up like he knows he’s a badass. I know I saw that in the videos last week before he strutted into the gate like he owned the joint and blew away the field without turning a hair.

[JBEX]

No question about it JBEX. It speaks to that seemingly crazy thing I said about sometimes it’s easier to win 3 in a row than it is 2 in a row.
I wonder if there is actually a stat on that? Too many variables probably to have merit but as crazy as it sounded, I still believe it in plenty of scenarios.

.
totally get the logic with that and makes perfect sense to me
..I think it would be more of an roi thing with winning a 3rd in a row .. horses who win 2 in a row aren't automatic underlays ..if they're stepping up in class and others (or another) are/is dropping I find the former often offer more value .. dropping in class is overbet imo which helps your angle from a betting perspective

Oh yeah, that carryover effect is real.

Horses know when they win. Some take it to another level.

If you look at how stoic some horses that win more than they lose prance around it’s like they are cocky. Lol.

Go back and look at Batts horse Straight No Chaser.
Correct me if I have them mixed up but wasn’t this horse antsy and washed out pre race last year. And somewhat agitated at times.
The horse I saw the other day was strutting around like a peacock and cool calm and collected.
He really does see the camera these days and he hams it up like he knows he’s a badass. I know I saw that in the videos last week before he strutted into the gate like he owned the joint and blew away the field without turning a hair.

not sure about SNC pre race and not surprised at your response regarding their mindset..you would think AM progeny would be especially good followup off a "drop win" candidates .. the natural competitive spirit in them would shine in that 2nd start and maybe above average chance to get the 3rd vs your average sire

[str]

.
totally get the logic with that and makes perfect sense to me
..I think it would be more of an roi thing with winning a 3rd in a row .. horses who win 2 in a row aren't automatic underlays ..if they're stepping up in class and others (or another) are/is dropping I find the former often offer more value .. dropping in class is overbet imo which helps your angle from a betting perspective






not sure about SNC pre race and not surprised at your response regarding their mindset..you would think AM progeny would be especially good followup off a "drop win" candidates .. the natural competitive spirit in them would shine in that 2nd start and maybe above average chance to get the 3rd vs your average sire

I would agree with that. They try like heck in well beaten races. Have to think off a win and not placed in a real tough spot, they would run better than their last effort off the confidence and positive results of the last race.

[batt33]

Oh yeah, that carryover effect is real.

Horses know when they win. Some take it to another level.

If you look at how stoic some horses that win more than they lose prance around it’s like they are cocky. Lol.

Go back and look at Batts horse Straight No Chaser.
Correct me if I have them mixed up but wasn’t this horse antsy and washed out pre race last year. And somewhat agitated at times.
The horse I saw the other day was strutting around like a peacock and cool calm and collected.
He really does see the camera these days and he hams it up like he knows he’s a badass. I know I saw that in the videos last week before he strutted into the gate like he owned the joint and blew away the field without turning a hair.

Enjoying catching up on the blog! And speaking of SNC..

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/4bd276dd46634da2a6b4950789f76823_1740506622432/MP4/4bd276dd46634da2a6b4950789f76823_1740506622432.mp4

Enjoy this video update from trainer Dan Blacker as our recent Riyadh Dirt Sprint winner enjoyed some grazing time with Juan Landeros at Meydan. Dan is thrilled with how well he looks out of the race, and as you will hear, Straight No Chaser will receive a few much-deserved days off before returning to the track.

[batt33]

It will take years to iron out all the mistakes that HISA will need to work through but with that said, it is far and away the best thing that could ever happen to USA thoroughbred racing.

Too late for me but that’s just fine. Thank goodness they are getting things right.

It makes me incredibly happy to see.

I hope they make as big an example out of these participants as possible.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...-pa-conspiracy

I 100% agree STR.....

[str]

Enjoying catching up on the blog! And speaking of SNC..

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/4bd276dd46634da2a6b4950789f76823_1740506622432/MP4/4bd276dd46634da2a6b4950789f76823_1740506622432.mp4

Enjoy this video update from trainer Dan Blacker as our recent Riyadh Dirt Sprint winner enjoyed some grazing time with Juan Landeros at Meydan. Dan is thrilled with how well he looks out of the race, and as you will hear, Straight No Chaser will receive a few much-deserved days off before returning to the track.

He looks GREAT Batt.

[batt33]

some updates STR on the younger horses including your fav!
[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Black Tie Optional Showcase Footage[/COLOR]Enjoy the accompanying video with clips of Black Tie Optional at last weekend's Ocala Showcase!

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/BlackTieOptional022225_1740603342080/MP4/BlackTieOptional022225_1740603342080.mp4

[str]

some updates STR on the younger horses including your fav!
[COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Black Tie Optional Showcase Footage[/COLOR]Enjoy the accompanying video with clips of Black Tie Optional at last weekend's Ocala Showcase!

https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/BlackTieOptional022225_1740603342080/MP4/BlackTieOptional022225_1740603342080.mp4

Thanks Batt.

Yep. Want to keep track of him as he starts training.
Should be fun to watch him train and learn.

[Madison]

Anyone else feeling like there is just too much data nowadays??

Did you know Johnny has a 100% success rate stealing 2nd base on Tuesday evenings, with a full moon. LOL

River Thames (Fountain of Youth)

He will be switching off Lasix, which is a curious move for Pletcher over the last five years. During that time, he is 8-52 (15%) switching 3-year-olds off Lasix in graded stakes dirt sprints while boasting a $3.86 ROI that is almost entirely propped up by Bourbonic winning the Wood Memorial at 72/1.

[Easy-Rider 66]

^ NO i think the more info the better. Levels the playing field a bit? A handicapper can do some research and pick and choose what info to utilize. IMO. GL.

[str]

Did you know Johnny has a 100% success rate stealing 2nd base on Tuesday evenings, with a full moon. LOL

River Thames (Fountain of Youth)

He will be switching off Lasix, which is a curious move for Pletcher over the last five years. During that time, he is 8-52 (15%) switching 3-year-olds off Lasix in graded stakes dirt sprints while boasting a $3.86 ROI that is almost entirely propped up by Bourbonic winning the Wood Memorial at 72/1.

I do agree with EZ that you would rather have too much than too little. I think the key is reading the info and realizing whether it is useful or not .

In this case, the info is a head scratcher and it makes no sense Madison.


Why?

Because switching off Lasix is not a curious move in graded stakes these days. That is the rule. No Lasix in Grade 1 races which is to help with breeding transparency down the road.

Furthermore, winning Graded sprint races at a 15% clip is great.

And just to show you how totally silly this comment is if that wasn't enough, while they state Todd's win %'s in graded sprint stakes dirt sprints and say the Wood Memorial at 72-1 tainted the ROI. Well, The Wood is a mile and an eighth so it does not qualify as a sprint.

Yikes !

All the best Madison. And I always liked the Tuesday full moon angle. Lol.

[Easy-Rider 66]

"The Jockeys’ Guild became aware on Thursday, February 27, 2025, of a lawsuit filed in Jefferson Circuit Court in the Commonwealth of Kentucky by Gray V Train Racing, LLC and Westbrook Stables, LLC against jockey Luan Machado. The lawsuit purports to assert claims against Mr. Machado for breach of contract and negligence. The lawsuit arises out of Mr. Machado’s actions at Churchill Downs on Nov. 28, 2024 – specifically, the claim that Mr. Machado prematurely eased up on his mount."The claims asserted against Mr. Machado in the lawsuit are utterly baseless. They are also dangerous. The Kentucky legislature has entrusted the stewards of the Kentucky Horse Racing & Gaming Corporation with responsibility for determining if there has been a violation of the racing rules. The stewards made such a determination here and imposed a fine and suspension on Mr. Machado, which he paid and has served.

"There is absolutely no basis for private parties to try to undermine the stewards’ statutorily-entrusted decision by supplanting it with their own judgment as to what the