Horse Racing questions and answers

**Dark Horse** · 04-02-12, 05:22 AM

Leparoux may get two consecutive starts on the Derby favorite. I'm quite sure that conventional wisdom says that he lost the 2011 race on Dialed In at the start. And yet, when I look at this video, it seems he did have a lot of horse in the stretch, but he was too far back. So I wonder. Did Leparoux start his run too late? (video has great sound. You can almost feel the ground shake below the thundering hooves).

Maybe the horse wasn't that good. Who remembers him today? Bad luck at the start may account for 90% of the loss? Or would you say 100%? I'm just wondering about that clock in the jockey's head you mentioned.

**str** · 04-07-12, 08:35 AM

Last week I answered the following question and want to amend my answer somewhat.

Q. Meanwhile, Leparoux got stuck behind horses with Union Rags, and couldn't find a way out. Makes me wonder if Leparoux needs more space than some of those other jockeys, and may not be a Derby winner.

A. Yes, he needed too be patient down the backside but Union Rags had AMPLE time to run on if he wanted too or was able too. He did not. I do not know if the horse was just not " all set" to run in the Fla. Derby or what, but that was a poor performance . He had no kick when asked. Looked like a horse that might need blinkers if indeed there was no other excuse. If he can't run inside or in between horses in that race he won't be getting any easier trip in the Derby in all probability. No visible excuse in my book. Poor effort on the horses part as far as I am concerned but maybe there was a reason for that. We will see.

After looking at the charts and going on more than I saw in the running of the Florida Derby, I want to upgrade my opinion of the performance that Union Rags put forth . It was not a poor performance IMO as I said last week. It was better than that but not great. An O.K. or decent effort is probably fair.Maybe a C+ or B- . Here is why:

Union Rags ran the last 3/8ths of the race in .36 1/5. There is nothing wrong at all with that.As a matter of fact, it is pretty good for a 3 year old this time of year at 1 1/8th miles. He did fire when asked and was not flat . In watching the race , he gave me that appearance but the clock says otherwise.

Too compare that finishing time to Grace Hall, the 3 year old filly that ran the race before Rags in the Oaks, she ran the last 3/8ths in 38 1/5. Obviously, she won easily but she was running on quite well from the 5/16s to the 1/8th pole. Not in a full drive but she was running. If you take out the last 1/8th , she ran .25 from the 3/8ths to the 1/8th pole. Union Rags ran .24. Yes, she is a filly but that gap along with the comfort of victory is not a reason to justify a ten length spread, at least not in my opinion. Grace Hall is one of, if not, the best 3 year old fillies, in the U.S. currently. She will probably be favored in the Ky. Oaks next month. I was lucky enough to spend a few days at Saratoga last August with her , and every one around her knew then that she was all that .
A super filly and running the last 3/8ths 10 lengths faster, or 5 lenghs from the 3/8ths to the 1/8th pole, than her is much better than the poor performance that I labeled Union Rags effort last week. My apologies for that, but I needed to set the record straight for anyone who cares.

**str** · 04-07-12, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Leparoux may get two consecutive starts on the Derby favorite. I'm quite sure that conventional wisdom says that he lost the 2011 race on Dialed In at the start. And yet, when I look at this video, it seems he did have a lot of horse in the stretch, but he was too far back. So I wonder. Did Leparoux start his run too late? (video has great sound. You can almost feel the ground shake below the thundering hooves).

Maybe the horse wasn't that good. Who remembers him today? Bad luck at the start may account for 90% of the loss? Or would you say 100%? I'm just wondering about that clock in the jockey's head you mentioned.

Sorry for the delayed response. I had a really busy and long week.
IMO the problems that Dialed In encountered, had nothing at all to do with the jockey. Here is what I saw. First of all, the first 1/2 mile of the Derby was run in 48+ seconds. No horse , unless tons, and I mean tons the best, is coming from 19th and 15 lengths back with that slow a first half. He had virtually NO CHANCE after the first half mile. Deep closers like him, are at the mercy of early fractions. If jockeys up front are able to cut pedestrian like fractions like that in the Derby, no horse is coming from last, unless they are really superior.
Secondly, he got no help from any kind of trip, meaning that he had to go around every horse that he passed. Lastly, if you watch him run as he turns for home, the jockey did exactly what you hope for , in that, he gets the horse just outside of the dirt being thrown back into the horses face. This is what jockeys want to do in order to give the horse a clean and easy trip and make it easier to rally for the horse. But if you watch Dialed In, he starts lugging in after switching leads and drifts right back down behind horses instead of continuing outside as the jock had wanted, thus getting hit with dirt again. You can see the jock, pull out his stick and knife Dialed In left handed to try and prevent the lugging in but it really does not help much.( This takes place around the 300 yard mark ) Had Dialed In gotten clear, stayed clear, and exploded as the jock hoped he would, he could have been much closer, but he was not going to win. There were just too many fresh horses finishing up in front of him to say that. The modest first 1/2 mile helped allow for that freshness.

So, in conclusion, it is hard for me to find a lot of error in the jock for the Derby. He might have realized that they were going slower than he wished for but with that type of horse, he had few options. Therefore my answers would have to be that I don't think he waited too late and Dialed In was not far superior .
As for the Union Rags ride, we do not know what the conversation was with the trainer beforehand. He certainly did not want to lose, but, he could have told the jock to tuck in and sit longer than usual as a preparatory schooling for the Ky. Derby . We just don't know. It's little things like that along the Derby trail that I spoke too last year as to why it is not the best idea in the world to bet large amounts on favorites coming up to the Derby. They are preparing for the first week in May and while they want to win, those that already qualify, do not have too. Those that do not yet have the earnings, not only are needing the win more that the favorites, put probably are more focused on winning so they CAN be in the Ky. Derby. Also, they are higher odds in all probability in these stepping stone races. So I guess you have to ask yourself, should I bet on the lower odds that do not need to win to qualify, or should I bet on the higher odds that do need to win to qualify. I think we all know the answer to that.
Hope that helps.

**Dark Horse** · 04-09-12, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by str

IMO the problems that Dialed In encountered, had nothing at all to do with the jockey. Here is what I saw. First of all, the first 1/2 mile of the Derby was run in 48+ seconds. No horse , unless tons, and I mean tons the best, is coming from 19th and 15 lengths back with that slow a first half. He had virtually NO CHANCE after the first half mile. Deep closers like him, are at the mercy of early fractions. If jockeys up front are able to cut pedestrian like fractions like that in the Derby, no horse is coming from last, unless they are really superior.
Secondly, he got no help from any kind of trip, meaning that he had to go around every horse that he passed. Lastly, if you watch him run as he turns for home, the jockey did exactly what you hope for , in that, he gets the horse just outside of the dirt being thrown back into the horses face. This is what jockeys want to do in order to give the horse a clean and easy trip and make it easier to rally for the horse. But if you watch Dialed In, he starts lugging in after switching leads and drifts right back down behind horses instead of continuing outside as the jock had wanted, thus getting hit with dirt again. You can see the jock, pull out his stick and knife Dialed In left handed to try and prevent the lugging in but it really does not help much.( This takes place around the 300 yard mark ) Had Dialed In gotten clear, stayed clear, and exploded as the jock hoped he would, he could have been much closer, but he was not going to win. There were just too many fresh horses finishing up in front of him to say that. The modest first 1/2 mile helped allow for that freshness.

Thanks. I had a good Derby payout last year, but even today would include Dialed In in my exotics, so was trying to identify my error. The pace was slow, but that didn't prevent Animal Kingdom from blowing by the field. So Dialed In was too far back. My question in such a large field would relate to him 'having to go around every horse that he passed'. Isn't that where the true KY Derby jockeys stand out?

People refer to Borel as staying close to the rail, but here he seems to appear out of thin air as he sharply angles towards the rail. Just incredible. Had to watch it many times, just to see what happened. Announcer never saw it either. lol

**str** · 04-09-12, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Thanks. I had a good Derby payout last year, but even today would include Dialed In in my exotics, so was trying to identify my error. The pace was slow, but that didn't prevent Animal Kingdom from blowing by the field. So Dialed In was too far back. My question in such a large field would relate to him 'having to go around every horse that he passed'. Isn't that where the true KY Derby jockeys stand out?

People refer to Borel as staying close to the rail, but here he seems to appear out of thin air as he sharply angles towards the rail. Just incredible. Had to watch it many times, just to see what happened. Announcer never saw it either. lol

Will answer this part tonight and get to the rest asap.

Q. Thanks. I had a good Derby payout last year, but even today would include Dialed In in my exotics, so was trying to identify my error. The pace was slow, but that didn't prevent Animal Kingdom from blowing by the field.

A. That is true but Animal Kingdom was slightly less than half as far back as Dialed In was. The slower pace did not take away a chance to make up 7-8 lengths but it certainly took away any chance to make 15 or more up. Watch the run down the backside and when you hear A. Kingdom's name called, compare the distance between him and the lead and him and Dialed In, who was last, and you will see what I mean. The final distance that Dialed In lost by, was roughly the same distance that he was behind A. Kingdom by as they went down the backside.

I too found it difficult to keep Dialed In off of triple tickets but that is because I felt that the first 1/2 mile was going to be in the 47 flat or faster range. If someone had told me that the 1/2 was going to be 48 and change, he would have been an immediate throw for me. "Pace makes the .... " you know the rest.

**Dark Horse** · 04-10-12, 03:58 AM

Originally posted by str

The final distance that Dialed In lost by, was roughly the same distance that he was behind A. Kingdom by as they went down the backside.

Yes. That's what made me ask the question. Dialed In had just as much horse left in him. So I wondered if after falling behind so far, Leparoux should have narrowed the gap earlier. The only reason for him not to do so, it seems, would be a fast pace, but that would mean the clock in his head was off. He may not have had as much horse left in the stretch, but now he had no chance at all. So basically the question would be if he knew the pace or not.

**str** · 04-10-12, 07:33 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Yes. That's what made me ask the question. Dialed In had just as much horse left in him. So I wondered if after falling behind so far, Leparoux should have narrowed the gap earlier. The only reason for him not to do so, it seems, would be a fast pace, but that would mean the clock in his head was off. He may not have had as much horse left in the stretch, but now he had no chance at all. So basically the question would be if he knew the pace or not.

Deep closers are just not as versatile as mid pack types. They take themselves out of the race early and there is very little a jockey can do about this. If they make them uncomfortable by prodding them along early, they risk a good chance of never allowing the horse to settle into a rhythm so that when it is time to go, the horse will kick on. Even if a jockey realizes that the pace is slower than the rider hoped for, with deep closers, their options are few and all come with some risk. If all deep closers could be kept closer, most riders and trainers would probably opt to do so, but that is simply not the case.
This is one thing that drove me crazy within this forum over a year ago, when people were slamming Mike Smith because he " took Zenyatta back" too far early in the race. I got tired of trying to correct peoples perception of what happened in that race because they were ranting so hard about it. But, truth be told, and understood, The only one that took Zenyatta back early in that race that she lost , was Zenyatta. The reigns were slightly slack if I recall as they went by the wire the first time and Smith did not want to be that far back but she took herself back to that spot. So, the next thought by most will be, then why didn't she get beat more often if pace makes the race and a deep closer is hurt by that. The answer to that is that she was so dominant against most all of her rivals that she was able to get away with it.When she lost her last race she was probably better than the winner but not by such a large margin that she was way better. She had ample time from the 1/8th pole to the wire to catch and pass the winner but because she was not tons better, she could not. The next question is that , if the pace is slow, why not move sooner? Two things happen with that. Sometimes they do move sooner but you can not see the gap closing so you assume that they are not moving sooner. The pace and stalk horses have more left in the tank at say, the 3/8s pole or half way around the far turn, so they are running faster at that point then they would be able too if the pace was hotter early. Also, a deep closer has a distance that they can run at max effort just as a speed horse does. Ask that deep closer to run at full strength for 5/8s of a mile and you might have exceeded the gas in it's tank. Most of those types have about a good 1/2 mile in them. After that, they might start to flatten out just as other types might.

So when a closer gets beat a nose, people will be quick to say that the jockey waited too long. Sometimes this is right , but more times than not, the jock either had to sustain a full run for longer than the deep closer could run at maximum effort, or the pace or trip was such that the winner had more in the tank for longer than it should have because it was the beneficiary of racing luck in regards to pace or trip.
Hope that all makes sense.

**Dark Horse** · 04-10-12, 08:37 AM

This pace problem is slowly coming into focus for me. Still need to find a mathematical way to include it in my method. The hard thing is to distill a complex problem into something as simple as possible. The focal point, somewhat like a hinge, for the solution is the second call.

**str** · 04-11-12, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

This pace problem is slowly coming into focus for me. Still need to find a mathematical way to include it in my method. The hard thing is to distill a complex problem into something as simple as possible. The focal point, somewhat like a hinge, for the solution is the second call.

That is correct. Understand the 1/2 mile time in conjunction to the overall race and most times the result will make more sense . Working that number into your model before the race will be tough though due to the fact that you will not know how the speed leaves the gate or understand the decisions that the riders make once the race starts. You also need to realize that different tracks have different fractions that break down as slow to fast. Comparing Gulfstream and Calif. , the fractions can be 1 second different and yet be the same as far as stress to the horse is concerned. And it goes without saying that bull rings will be slower than mile tracks but again, it is the point of too fast or too slow that dictates the rest of the race in most cases.

This holds true for sprints as well but in many cases, this is where the conversation about where the timer is located in conjunction to the gate and how much run up to the timer each track provides. Pimlico and Laurel for instance are night and day different, yet the same horses race at both. Having just started the Pimlico meet, now might be a good time to see the difference between the two.

Will get to the other questions from a few posts back asap.

**Dark Horse** · 04-11-12, 10:30 AM

Yes, very challenging to distill. A lot of moving parts. Didn't realize that BRIS had free software combining positional and pace figures. Interesting. http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/dynamic.cgi?page=allways

**Dark Horse** · 04-13-12, 09:21 AM

Tomorrow the Arkansas Derby. Baffert has two horses. Secret Circle (5-2 ML) is already in the Kentucky Derby, but Bodemeister (9-5 ML) would need to finish first or second. The obvious question. Would he truly want Secret Circle to finish ahead of Bodemeister?

About the pace question. Huge topic. No point at all in trying to reinvent the wheel. I think I may have found the short cut I was hoping for. Available through free software and BRIS: http://www.frandsen.com/newsletters/...t%20Values.pdf

**str** · 04-14-12, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Tomorrow the Arkansas Derby. Baffert has two horses. Secret Circle (5-2 ML) is already in the Kentucky Derby, but Bodemeister (9-5 ML) would need to finish first or second. The obvious question. Would he truly want Secret Circle to finish ahead of Bodemeister?

About the pace question. Huge topic. No point at all in trying to reinvent the wheel. I think I may have found the short cut I was hoping for. Available through free software and BRIS: http://www.frandsen.com/newsletters/Favorite ALL-WaysTM Newsletter Articles Series/Articles/Final Quirin Speed Points-Race Shapes-Impact Values.pdf

I will assume that the owners are different for each horse. If the owners are the same , anything is possible. Assuming that they are different, a trainer ( even Baffert) can not pick and choose who wins in a race of this caliber. There is so much money at stake possibly, well beyond the purse, that he can not call that shot. He would need to be much more subtle than that. So let's try and get into his mind. Does he really think that Secret Circle can go a mile and a quarter? Most do not. I doubt that deep in his heart he feels that he can so he will give the horse a chance to go a mile and an eighth and see what happens. But... knowing that the Derby will not be a 24/48/112+ type race in all probability, he will let Secret Circle roll on early and it will be two fold. If he can sustain quicker fractions and win, great, he will go too the Derby. If not, he will set the table for Bodemeister to have his best shot to win.
That is the politically correct way that the story will, in all probability , be told. Again, if the same owner owns both, they can do whatever they want, but if you reread what I just wrote, that would likely be just that.
It's all about saying things the right way.
I have not forgotten your other questions from a previous post . I will try and get to them today or tomorrow.

**Dark Horse** · 04-14-12, 12:18 PM

lol You said it the right way.

So I suppose the correct way of asking the question would be: is it a coincidence that Secret Circle and Bodemeister are in the same race?

**harthebar** · 04-14-12, 01:01 PM

Hey str how have you been....double bounctious here lol ....I might change that to my screen name lol...any bold predictions in the big races today....if he gets in Derby I'm still going with tiger walk.........

**str** · 04-14-12, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

lol You said it the right way.

So I suppose the correct way of asking the question would be: is it a coincidence that Secret Circle and Bodemeister are in the same race?

No, it is not.

This will work itself out either way.

**str** · 04-14-12, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

Hey str how have you been....double bounctious here lol ....I might change that to my screen name lol...any bold predictions in the big races today....if he gets in Derby I'm still going with tiger walk.........

No bold predictions today but I am anxious to see how Hansen reacts if he gets pinned inside of the outside speed that should be running early and down the backside. He has never had his right eye covered up and if he can handle that, it will say a lot about him. Typically, horses that have done what he has done can not handle that right eye covered up for the first time, if at all. They often displace their palate, bleed, or throw their head up in the air from the dirt hitting them in the face. It should be very interesting to see how he reacts if that takes place. The race certainly has a chance to take that shape. Because of that, I would not be playing Hansen on any tickets if I were playing the race. Even money and a good chance to have to overcome many new and different obstacles. No thanks.

**Louisvillekid1** · 04-14-12, 03:01 PM

What do you think about 'ever so lucky' Was thinking about making on play on him, seems like he could pull the upset today @ a nice price...

**str** · 04-14-12, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

What do you think about 'ever so lucky' Was thinking about making on play on him, seems like he could pull the upset today @ a nice price...

His breeding suggests that distance can become an issue but he has one of the best trainers I have ever been around in Jonathon Sheppard. If anyone can get this horse to relax and get that distance, he can. If the pace is insane it will set up for deep closers like Dullahan and others but I have no problem being ok with chasing Ever So Lucky at a price. With that outside post, yes he might be wide, but, he probably will keep a clean outside eye and that is what most speed horses want.Don't get hurt, but probably worth a swing at a nice price.
Good Luck.

**Louisvillekid1** · 04-14-12, 03:40 PM

**Dark Horse** · 04-15-12, 11:52 AM

Not to lay into Hansen, but I don't think the owner, trainer, or jockey wanted him to run a 46. Everybody, from commentators to handicappers, seemed to express the same thing. The race sure had a lot of early speed. But somebody forgot to tell Hansen, who dashed out in front without a care in the world. In the Gotham he seemed to have learned the lesson from the Holy Bull, but that was all forgotten here. He had already qualified for the Derby, so with winning not that important wouldn't you want him to become better at running just off the pace? Do you, as trainer, qualify horses as those that get it and that don't get it?

Would you agree that at this point the Kentucky Derby sets up like an early speed duel between Hansen and Bodemeister?

**Louisvillekid1** · 04-15-12, 12:11 PM

I know one thing Bodemeister is going to be your derby favorite that was a huge effort yesterday... less than 12 second final run...

**str** · 04-15-12, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Thanks. I had a good Derby payout last year, but even today would include Dialed In in my exotics, so was trying to identify my error. The pace was slow, but that didn't prevent Animal Kingdom from blowing by the field. So Dialed In was too far back. My question in such a large field would relate to him 'having to go around every horse that he passed'. Isn't that where the true KY Derby jockeys stand out?

People refer to Borel as staying close to the rail, but here he seems to appear out of thin air as he sharply angles towards the rail. Just incredible. Had to watch it many times, just to see what happened. Announcer never saw it either. lol

Q. My question in such a large field would relate to him 'having to go around every horse that he passed'. Isn't that where the true KY Derby jockeys stand out?

People refer to Borel as staying close to the rail, but here he seems to appear out of thin air as he sharply angles towards the rail. Just incredible. Had to watch it many times, just to see what happened. Announcer never saw it either. lol

A. If a jockey goes around the whole field , that could be by choice or it could be by trip. When we talk about the Derby, we realize that racing luck plays a huge role and going around everyone in that race is nearly impossible. Most riders will do their best to cut the corner or save ground somewhere if they are far enough back to be able to pick and choose. If they are laying 7-12 or thereabouts, chances are they will not have the luxury of choice and will need to go where ever the placement that they have found takes them. I say that because that position will probably be a congested area with limited choices other than when to go but not so much where to go. Sometimes, waiting can result in a clearer run.
As for Borel and Mine that Bird, he was on the rail for almost the entire trip. He went around one horse before angling back down to the fence but other than that, he saved ground almost every step. Because he got through, it was great. That is where he likes to ride at Churchill and it works well for him. But if he gets too much press about that, don't think for a minute that the other riders won't adjust and take that away from him. If he tries to do that at other major tracks where the better jockeys ride, he will not fair so well.
Without taking anything away from Mine That Bird, if memory serves me correctly, the rail the day before the Derby in a big way, as well as Derby day, was "the place too be". It was great down there and the outside was not as good as the inside , especially, the day before. This was because of the impending heavy rain that they knew was coming. The track was over graded so it would be perfect on Saturday. That left the track with a huge rail bias on Friday.
So, yes the best riders will be able to deal with the traffic more so than weaker riders but luck will be a huge factor with that number of horses. If you don't get through somewhere it is hard too imagine that you can win if you are way back early.

**str** · 04-15-12, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Not to lay into Hansen, but I don't think the owner, trainer, or jockey wanted him to run a 46. Everybody, from commentators to handicappers, seemed to express the same thing. The race sure had a lot of early speed. But somebody forgot to tell Hansen, who dashed out in front without a care in the world. In the Gotham he seemed to have learned the lesson from the Holy Bull, but that was all forgotten here. He had already qualified for the Derby, so with winning not that important wouldn't you want him to become better at running just off the pace? Do you, as trainer, qualify horses as those that get it and that don't get it?

Would you agree that at this point the Kentucky Derby sets up like an early speed duel between Hansen and Bodemeister?

I have to think that the trainer of Hansen was extremely upset with the buffoonery that took place with the owner deciding to dye Hansens tail blue a couple of hours before the race . That seemed to stir up Hansen and having to dye it back white which was the proper call by the stewards by the way, only got him more on edge. He was a mess by the time he got to the paddock and out too the track. I have to say that IMO he ran a superb race to finish as well as he did with all that took place. That owner is a complete fool.
Setting that aside, when the race was set on paper, the trainer had a big choice to make. If he continues to try and teach the horse to relax a bit like he tried to do in the Gotham, he risked getting pinned with horses to his right eye and I was hopeful that we could see what he was going too do in that scenario. I have to think that allowing Hansen to settle and therefore putting a really dismal performance in play if he did not like that trip, was too tough a pill to have to swallow if indeed that happened. The easy decision was going to be to outrun the outside speed , make the lead, and worry about a mile and a quarter later. I can't blame the trainer at all but it really puts Hansen in a tough spot now. It is also my opinion that even if the trainer wanted to settle a bit early, that opportunity was lost when the owner pulled his mind numbing stunt prior to the horse coming over to the paddock.
So I know for a fact that all was not forgotten by Hansen from the Gotham. The foundation was set to try and build from that effort. But for reasons already discussed, now it is all forgotten by Hansen. If he can rate and fire in the Derby, it would be a feat that would never get the credit that it would deserve. But I can't imagine that happening. He will probably be all fired up with all that takes place on Derby day. A lot will depend on the draw of the Derby. If he is way down inside, he has no choice but to go from the git. With a further out type post, things could possibly change but it will be hard to imagine Hansen relaxing anywhere except possibly on the lead and by himself, if others assume that he will simply quit.
What will be interesting is where Bodemeister breaks from and the trip he gets. People have a tendency to get all excited when a horse runs great and they lose sight of how the horse did what he did. Bodemeister's trip was as clean as it gets. Yes, he ran great. But can he do that inside? Or in between and with dirt in his face? Still plenty of questions left but the draw will be crucial towards seeing who might be where.
I think that Hansen "got it" in the Gotham. The owner screwed that up but maybe the trainer said the hell with it also when all that outside pressure showed up in the form. I guess I could not blame him if that was the case. I do feel however, that if a trainer that was in the Derby every year was training Hansen, there is a good chance that he might consider skipping the Derby and running in the Preakness instead.
My guess on the duel question is that Bodemeister would opt to sit off of Hansen and let some of the race go by before moving.

**Gemoka** · 04-16-12, 03:20 AM

Have noticed in US that some riders go off way too fast or even worse 3 horses get in a pace duel and no way they can win, are they riding to instructions? how come none of them think I'll drop to 3rd and let the other 2 cut each others throats? I see them going on like madmen and they cant win

Another thing I noticed is that in UK when a horse is headed it normally tried to battle back but in US once they are headed they are done, is that cos they go off too fast and have nothing left?

**Dark Horse** · 04-16-12, 01:19 PM

So I know for a fact that all was not forgotten by Hansen from the Gotham. The foundation was set to try and build from that effort. But for reasons already discussed, now it is all forgotten by Hansen. If he can rate and fire in the Derby, it would be a feat that would never get the credit that it would deserve.

Thanks str. Insightful as always.

The Hansen owner is all ego. Could have known with naming the horse after him. The blue tail rumors began months ago, with the intent of doing that for the Derby. I heard about that stunt Saturday, but didn't realize it would have impacted the horse so much.

According to Randy Moss Hansen may have lost his rider. He thinks Dominguez will now go with Alpha. Meanwhile, Mike Smith from Daddy Nose Best to Bodemeister and Garrett Gomez to Daddy Nose Best.

**str** · 04-18-12, 06:57 AM

Originally posted by Gemoka

Have noticed in US that some riders go off way too fast or even worse 3 horses get in a pace duel and no way they can win, are they riding to instructions? how come none of them think I'll drop to 3rd and let the other 2 cut each others throats? I see them going on like madmen and they cant win

Another thing I noticed is that in UK when a horse is headed it normally tried to battle back but in US once they are headed they are done, is that cos they go off too fast and have nothing left?

Q. Have noticed in US that some riders go off way too fast or even worse 3 horses get in a pace duel and no way they can win, are they riding to instructions? .

A. There is no easy answer for this but it absolutely starts with breeding and training. U.S. horses are bred for speed so much more so than U.K. horses are. Many stallions in the U.S. could not go over a mile in a van much less on there own. As a result, many of these horses just can not make it that far. So they are sprinters right? Well, yes, but when you have a sprinter that is too slow to sprint, you try and make them go long, and thus , the issue arises that you speak too. Also, in the U.S. most horses are trained at the track. In the U.K. that is not the case is it? It never used too be, I did not think. U.K. horses are taught and because of there surroundings have a better ability and understanding, too relax. Over here, if a trainer has a barn full of horses, they have only a few hours to get them all out on the track before it closes at 10 AM for training. As a result, the horses in many cases are not given the time to jog , stand out , look around, and relax, walk home after a gallop, take the long relaxed walk through the stable area from different gaps( exits on the track) etc. It is hustle, bustle, from the moment the track opens at 6 AM or at first light in the summer.
If you take a different route home from work, maybe through the woods or past a golf course once in a while, it helps relax the drive every now and then. If you are made to drive on the highway, in the same bumper to bumper traffic every day, it is stressful right? Same with horses.
Also remember, the horses stabled at the track hear the call of the race and the gate opening 9 times a day or night on race days. That keeps the tension level high as well , while the horse training on the farm, is relaxed and hearing the birds singing or whatever. Two totally differing settings.
Sometimes they are riding too instructions but more times than not, the speed horses are over geared up for the race.

Q. How come none of them think I'll drop to 3rd and let the other 2 cut each others throats? I see them going on like madmen and they cant win.

A. If more horses were taught how too relax, this might occur more often but as stated above, most times that is not the case.

Q. Another thing I noticed is that in UK when a horse is headed it normally tried to battle back but in US once they are headed they are done, is that cos they go off too fast and have nothing left?

A. Again, I think this has a lot to do with both breeding and not learning too relax as well as the U.K. horses.
When Graham Motion took over for Bernie Bond after Bernie passed away, his training style was so completely different it was frightening. Bernie had tremendous success but almost every horse he trained was fast. Graham , over a couple of years became the poster boy in Maryland for getting horses too relax. His European style was quite different than typical U.S. "at the track" training. His operation was much more costly to run because of him taking so much time with each horse, thus needing much more help, and as a result, a much higher payroll than most. Although not the norm, he stuck to what he knew and felt was the right way to do things. Obviously, it has worked very well for him and Anita, and I could not be happier for them in there success.
Hope that helped answer a very complex question.

**Gemoka** · 04-18-12, 05:04 PM

thanks dude

**str** · 04-20-12, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Thanks str. Insightful as always.

The Hansen owner is all ego. Could have known with naming the horse after him. The blue tail rumors began months ago, with the intent of doing that for the Derby. I heard about that stunt Saturday, but didn't realize it would have impacted the horse so much.

According to Randy Moss Hansen may have lost his rider. He thinks Dominguez will now go with Alpha. Meanwhile, Mike Smith from Daddy Nose Best to Bodemeister and Garrett Gomez to Daddy Nose Best.

If Dominguez gets off of Hansen that would speak volumes in terms of what Dominguez felt underneath him in Hansens last race.

**harthebar** · 04-21-12, 05:19 PM

STR, thanks again for your GREAT postssss your like a book,..What do you think and why...race 6 montaineer the #1 listed at 3/5 never raced....how can a horse that has never raced be 3/5 are his workouts that great,remember i'm more of a harness guy,unlike my aunty nancy...lol

**str** · 04-22-12, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

STR, thanks again for your GREAT postssss your like a book,..What do you think and why...race 6 montaineer the #1 listed at 3/5 never raced....how can a horse that has never raced be 3/5 are his workouts that great,remember i'm more of a harness guy,unlike my aunty nancy...lol

This question is easy to answer now that the race is over from a bet this horse or not standpoint. The horse lost.
I answered fairly recently in this thread to basically the same question. I would NEVER play a 1st time starter that was 3/5. Period. Especially , and I remember typing this part, if the firster had the # 1 post. Why the #1 post? Because ( and if you look at the chart of the 6th at Mountaineer it will back this up) more times than not, unless it is a full field , the actual one slot in the gate is not used. So there is a space that is larger then normal between the horse and the rail. If they are breaking out of a chute, it is worse, because as they cross over to the main track there is 40 feet or so, too get over to the inner rail of the main track. Most inexperienced horses will duck away from all of the other horses as they break or shy away from them. That means they duck in or veer in when they have a chance. The jockey feels out of control and needs to grab the horse to regain control and the horse losses valuable forward momentum. Also, once the dirt fly's back into the horses face from the inside, it takes an above average horse too deal with that 1st time out.
So, too me, I would never bet a firster that did not have solid value of some sort and would live by the rule of rarely if ever bet a firster. And no matter what value it had, I doubt I would ever bet a firster from the one hole. I would venture to guess that Jake or one of the guys has the ROI on even money or less firsters.
Secretariat got beat his 1st time out. If it can happen to him, why do I need too chase that angle. I don't care how good his works are or who's brother or sister the horse might be.That's my opinion.
Hope that makes sense.

**sandyw123** · 04-25-12, 05:49 PM

Isn't it a concern when a horse suddenly has a different jockey? There's no familiarily there. For instance now, Garret Gomez will be riding Daddy Nose Best, and Ramon Dominguez may be riding Alpha. Is that a major disadvantage?

**str** · 04-26-12, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by sandyw123

Isn't it a concern when a horse suddenly has a different jockey? There's no familiarily there. For instance now, Garret Gomez will be riding Daddy Nose Best, and Ramon Dominguez may be riding Alpha. Is that a major disadvantage?

Very good question.
It really depends on the horse. In the majority of cases, if the jock gets to work the horse before the race and the trainer has told the jock all of the tendencies, like the little things too do and more importantly, the things not too do, it can be a relatively easy transition. Explaining any subtleties such as a tender mouth, why he wears the bit or style blinkers that he runs in or quirks about taking too strong a hold will help a lot. Explaining about oddities like the horse possibly holding his breath or how too keep the horse in his calmest state while warming up as well as other things like that are invaluable and definitely discussed at length for races like this. Also, the rider will take the time to review film of previous races the horse has run. So the answer in most cases regarding races of this magnitude is no, not as much as you might think.
Hope that helps.

**Dark Horse** · 04-26-12, 01:38 PM

One positive example. Johnny Velazquez got the ride on Animal Kingdom the day before last year's Derby, after Robby Albarado's injury.

**sandyw123** · 04-26-12, 04:16 PM

Thanks for clearing that up for me! The jockeys are switching to horses who they think will give them the best chance to win. If a jockey new to a horse is instructed by the trainer on how to guide that particular horse and follows the instructions, the horse will probably respond to him. So the horse is really the key player, as long as the jockey does what he needs to do. Going back to what you said earlier about Mike Smith being blamed for losing the race with Zenyatta last year and opting now not to ride another closer in the Kentucky Derby makes a lot of sense. I can really see it, since it's difficult to ride a closer because of the need for perfect timing. If the horse is off a fraction, the race is lost (especially in a race with so many talented horses as in the Kentucky Derby). And analysts always say that a closing (or stalking) style is best in this race. Bodemeister is an early speed horse. Is that good? I know he's fast, but how can he sustain that kind of speed in such a long race? Mike Smith is obviously convinced that he's riding the better horse for the race. There's another example of a new rider for a horse having success. Not only did he win but by a huge margin.

**str** · 04-27-12, 07:55 AM

Originally posted by sandyw123

Thanks for clearing that up for me! The jockeys are switching to horses who they think will give them the best chance to win. If a jockey new to a horse is instructed by the trainer on how to guide that particular horse and follows the instructions, the horse will probably respond to him. So the horse is really the key player, as long as the jockey does what he needs to do. Going back to what you said earlier about Mike Smith being blamed for losing the race with Zenyatta last year and opting now not to ride another closer in the Kentucky Derby makes a lot of sense. I can really see it, since it's difficult to ride a closer because of the need for perfect timing. If the horse is off a fraction, the race is lost (especially in a race with so many talented horses as in the Kentucky Derby). And analysts always say that a closing (or stalking) style is best in this race. Bodemeister is an early speed horse. Is that good? I know he's fast, but how can he sustain that kind of speed in such a long race? Mike Smith is obviously convinced that he's riding the better horse for the race. There's another example of a new rider for a horse having success. Not only did he win but by a huge margin.

Q. So the horse is really the key player, as long as the jockey does what he needs to do.

A., Absolutely.

Q. Mike Smith being blamed for losing the race with Zenyatta last year and opting now not to ride another closer in the Kentucky Derby makes a lot of sense. I can really see it, since it's difficult to ride a closer because of the need for perfect timing.

A. He is not avoiding riding a closer. He is a professional and understands what really happens and why. He can not and I am sure does not worry about public blame. If you start to worry about public blame, and the public finds out about it, they will blame you for that. He is trying to ride what he deems as the best available horse that he can ride.

Q. Bodemeister is an early speed horse. Is that good? I know he's fast, but how can he sustain that kind of speed in such a long race? Mike Smith is obviously convinced that he's riding the better horse for the race. There's another example of a new rider for a horse having success.

A. Bodemeister ran a huge race in his last effort. Too not ride him at this point would be hard to believe. The fact that he is a speed type is simply the way it is. I think that everyone realizes how much speed is going to be in the Derby field and "if" they all hook up down the backside and sizzle through a 46 half and a 109 or 110 3/4s of a mile, things will set up for all the closers to run them down. However, there is a danger in that , being that everyone might assume that the pace will be frantic and all the speed will fade. Trinniberg will be the speed of the speed. Everyone assumes that he will simply run out of gas , even with a clear lead. So, if that is the consensus, why would Hansen or Bodemeister even consider running "with" him early. So, in trying to visualize the shape of the race early, and those three are the three leaders, the horse that gets the outside position between Hansen and Bodemeister who will , in theory be laying 2nd and 3rd, will have a distinct advantage over the other one. Hansen , having never been down inside and off the lead will have to overcome that position( no easy feet for a pure speed horse). If Bodemeister whose other races besides his last, I have not yet seen, gets down inside, I don't yet have an opinion on his possible reaction, but overall seasoning will come into play and that historically has been many horses undoing in the Derby. His race in the Ark. Derby was very impressive, but, he had the outside post, broke like a shot, and had a perfect trip. Not his fault, but that is what happened.
So the pace will dictate that race as it usually does, but HOW the others are able to be where they are down the backside will also dictate how they fair. Believe it or not, Hansens last race , when run down late, IMO was a lot better than most might think. He was in full gear for a long time and yes , he got beat, but, only by one horse. Horses that run off that fast for that long, have reason to completely stop if they are counterfeit. He certainly is a nice horse, but he is being asked to do a lot and off his last race, a win here would be an incredible feat , even with a perfect trip.
I think that the draw will have plenty to say about the outcome for Hansen and Bodemeister . Let's see what happens there and try and lay the race out for those two.