Wednesday at Belmont

[Seattle Slew]

Looking at Higher Incentive in Race 5 on the turf. This horse won 2 back in first turf try then ran a good second last out despite being stuck on the inside. Likely favorite so will watch the tote.

On Saturday at Delaware Park, I think the big favorite in the Delaware Oaks Cotton Blossom is beatable. Baffert is shipping in Tough Tiz's Sis, who ran a better race in the Kentucky Oaks than it appears, then won handily next out at Hollywood.

[kdmfox]

At 8/5 ML I'm looking to beat this horse ... I'm gonna go with #4 Borrowing Base 10-1 ML ... O fer 2 on the turf getting Castellano back on board ... Went a mile a 1/4 on the turf last out and just ran around in a circle ... Cuts back to a mile and 1/16 and drops back for a tag ... Claimed 2 back ... Trainer must think she can run on the lawn or wouldn't have entered her back on.

50WP #4
25EX Box 1/4

Also race 7 #2 Laura's Fury 8-1 ML ... Coming off 2 straight wins at a mile going to turf the 1st time ... Very questionable turf pedigree ... Desourmeaux stays aboard.

50WP

[Seattle Slew]

Entry right now at 8-5, but I think Higher Incentive wins this easily. No. 2 My Nina Rose beat him last out at 22-1 but had the better trip. I'll try a 1-2 exacta and WP on the entry.

Good luck on the 4. Seems to fit.

At 8/5 ML I'm looking to beat this horse ... I'm gonna go with #4 Borrowing Base 10-1 ML ... O fer 2 on the turf getting Castellano back on board ... Went a mile a 1/4 on the turf last out and just ran around in a circle ... Cuts back to a mile and 1/16 and drops back for a tag ... Claimed 2 back ... Trainer must think she can run on the lawn or wouldn't have entered her back on.

50WP #4
25EX Box 1/4

Also race 7 #2 Laura's Fury 8-1 ML ... Coming off 2 straight wins at a mile going to turf the 1st time ... Very questionable turf pedigree ... Desourmeaux stays aboard.

50WP

[Seattle Slew]

2
4
1

Perfect

[kdmfox]

2
4
1

Perfect

Hahahahahaha ... Well we had all the right numbers for a $72 EX and a $259 TRI ... I got a decent place price anyway ... I know you are a knowledgeable handicapper but I just can't deal with favorites ...Been burned too many times and I feel like a damn fool for betting them ... If I can't get by the chalk in my handicapping I just put a 20 to win and move on.

The #4 in that race steadied a bit in the stretch to go to the outside ... Questionable though if he could have got there.

Good luck.

[Seattle Slew]

Exactly right. I'm beyond stupid for betting a 4-5 shot in any race, let alone turf. Just stupid. Even if the 1 holds second, I would have won only about $12 on the WP and exacta play. Not worth it.

And I did feel like a damn fool after that race. Ready to stay out until Saratoga. That's the only track I seem to play smart at.

Then I thought "well I'll play Baffert's horse Saturday at Delaware then stay out." Right.

Hahahahahaha ... Well we had all the right numbers for a $72 EX and a $259 TRI ... I got a decent place price anyway ... I know you are a knowledgeable handicapper but I just can't deal with favorites ...Been burned too many times and I feel like a damn fool for betting them ... If I can't get by the chalk in my handicapping I just put a 20 to win and move on.

The #4 in that race steadied a bit in the stretch to go to the outside ... Questionable though if he could have got there.

Good luck.

[kdmfox]

I'm always on the search for 1st time turfers lately ... Just had a sweet one at Monmouth race 8 #4 Social Queen ... Had 6 dirt races with a 1st, 2nd and 3rd last 3 ... This horse is out of Dynaformer and won easily and paid 10.20 and 6.40.