Future Pool 4

[Pigpen]

OK gang, I am not going to miss out this time. Post your future winners for us to analyze. Good luck!!!!!

[JBEX]

OK gang, I am not going to miss out this time. Post your future winners for us to analyze. Good luck!!!!!

don't want to add another pp cause it starts to thin out the roi if by some stroke of luck I actually hit one of the other 2..that being said will pick another 1 or 2 friday or saturday..not plays just who I would add if I were going to ..

in on locked 18-1 (p2) and born noble 41-1 (p3)

[JBEX]

don't want to add another pp cause it starts to thin out the roi if by some stroke of luck I actually hit one of the other 2..that being said will pick another 1 or 2 friday or saturday..not plays just who I would add if I were going to ..

in on locked 18-1 (p2) and born noble 41-1 (p3)

imo this is the last time it's interesting to get involved..louisiana 2nd leg saturday but all the others will be in the coming weeks

[JBEX]

don't want to add another pp cause it starts to thin out the roi if by some stroke of luck I actually hit one of the other 2..that being said will pick another 1 or 2 friday or saturday..not plays just who I would add if I were going to ..

in on locked 18-1 (p2) and born noble 41-1 (p3)

imo this is the last time it's interesting to get involved..louisiana 2nd leg saturday but all the others will be in the coming weeks

7 deterministic (99-1)

realize when your only start was a debut maiden win in august it's getting a little late to be pointing towards the derby..but it wasn't just any win and always consider a horse doing it 1st out at the tough distance of 7f at saratoga has the potential to be something special..extremely expensive including for his bloodlines it's certainly no fluke he's a runner..obviously some things must have gone awry to keep him out this long but is training forwardly at pbd .. he would probably need a win or two 2nds to accumulate enough derby points to be eligible ..his trainer clement one of the best ..might be a reach with only one start but because of this i think you will make it up with extra value in the pools ..will take a smaller position on him and that will be IT !! lol

going to guess he'll go off around 65-1

[Pigpen]

don't want to add another pp cause it starts to thin out the roi if by some stroke of luck I actually hit one of the other 2..that being said will pick another 1 or 2 friday or saturday..not plays just who I would add if I were going to ..

in on locked 18-1 (p2) and born noble 41-1 (p3)

Very true JB, I fooled around and missed last round. I think I am going to look at some pedigrees and take a couple of stabs.

[JBEX]

Very true JB, I fooled around and missed last round. I think I am going to look at some pedigrees and take a couple of stabs.

it's fun having a position (or positions) heading into the derby.. winning or running 2nd in a prep feels good .. was considering one other but 3 is enough..interested to see who you come up with and if it happens to be my other I will say so

[JBEX]

hey str

was wondering what you think of deterministic (above write-up for ky derby future) ..if you were the connections of this horse and he's doing everything right,don't you still want to point for the derby in spite of his lack of seasoning..obviously something happened for him to be sidelined for so long but have to think if there were any doubts they wouldn't give it go .. is it really farfetched with his credentials that he could fire a big shot in the 2nd leg of a major track prep series ..or maybe (more sensibly) if there's an allowance race and he runs big use it as a setup to try a final leg somewhere .. he'd probably have to win the latter or a 2nd place finish in leg 2 along with one in leg 3 would probably make him eligible .. i have a hunch ,derby or not, this ones going to be a special horse..time will tell

[str]

hey str

was wondering what you think of deterministic (above write-up for ky derby future) ..if you were the connections of this horse and he's doing everything right,don't you still want to point for the derby in spite of his lack of seasoning..obviously something happened for him to be sidelined for so long but have to think if there were any doubts they wouldn't give it go .. is it really farfetched with his credentials that he could fire a big shot in the 2nd leg of a major track prep series ..or maybe (more sensibly) if there's an allowance race and he runs big use it as a setup to try a final leg somewhere .. he'd probably have to win the latter or a 2nd place finish in leg 2 along with one in leg 3 would probably make him eligible .. i have a hunch ,derby or not, this ones going to be a special horse..time will tell

This horse is different from most we see. IMO, mainly because C. Clement is training him and we just don't see him running in the Derby. It's kind of not his style and many of his horses are turf as is this one maybe.
I see from the pp's that they paid 625k for him as a yearling who is by a 40k stud. That tells me he was very well received with a big story behind him when he was a yearling. And from his 1st race performance, he seems "as advertised".

Don't know what went wrong but bucked shins is often the culprit which is no long term problem at all unless the cannon bones are a lifetime problem. Kind of rare for that to be the case, so let's hope is was simple bucked shins.

What I am seeing in his workout pattern is that he has already worked 5/8ths three times and if the seven day schedule holds, he should be working tomorrow morning. We will look for that. Those three 5/8ths works are screaming out that Clement is at least giving this horse a chance to get there. He only worked this horse 5/8ths once before running 7/8ths at Saratoga. And let me add that these really nice horses , when they go 5/8ths they usually gallop out a mile by the time they are over 15 per 1/8th. It just goes to the high quality of these animals. Normal horses like claimers just can't do that. It's superior athleticism.

Be interesting to see where he starts off. I am assuming not 7/8ths only because he is training him more aggressively than he did last summer for a 7/8ths race. So maybe 2 turns for his 1st start back?

I think he is keeping the chance of the Derby open and will run twice before it if things all fall right. That's a big if but at 99-1 it's worth a flyer IMO. Hit that JBEX and that's a lifelong feather in your cap. Hell yeah for a few bucks.

Please let me know when he is entered. Also, if he works today, that's a schedule change most likely with a race date approaching. If he stays on Saturdays, he's probably still building forward. Of course, the race will most likely be a Saturday race as well so maybe he's staying right with that. More often than not though, they will do something like a 3/4's work tomorrow, galloping out a mile or 1 1/8th, no work next Saturday and a 1/2 mile on Monday/Tuesday for a following Saturday race. So is there a race in 3 weeks that would fit the bill? Then one on the 1st week of April? There should be options for him on those Saturdays. That has him all set for the Derby if he is winning or running REAL big in those preps. But has to win at least one though I would think.

The Ky. Derby makes trainers do things that no other race would make them do. It's really something to watch as they prep towards it.

Thanks JBEX.

[JBEX]

This horse is different from most we see. IMO, mainly because C. Clement is training him and we just don't see him running in the Derby. It's kind of not his style and many of his horses are turf as is this one maybe.
I see from the pp's that they paid 625k for him as a yearling who is by a 40k stud. That tells me he was very well received with a big story behind him when he was a yearling. And from his 1st race performance, he seems "as advertised".

Don't know what went wrong but bucked shins is often the culprit which is no long term problem at all unless the cannon bones are a lifetime problem. Kind of rare for that to be the case, so let's hope is was simple bucked shins.

What I am seeing in his workout pattern is that he has already worked 5/8ths three times and if the seven day schedule holds, he should be working tomorrow morning. We will look for that. Those three 5/8ths works are screaming out that Clement is at least giving this horse a chance to get there. He only worked this horse 5/8ths once before running 7/8ths at Saratoga. And let me add that these really nice horses , when they go 5/8ths they usually gallop out a mile by the time they are over 15 per 1/8th. It just goes to the high quality of these animals. Normal horses like claimers just can't do that. It's superior athleticism.

Be interesting to see where he starts off. I am assuming not 7/8ths only because he is training him more aggressively than he did last summer for a 7/8ths race. So maybe 2 turns for his 1st start back?

I think he is keeping the chance of the Derby open and will run twice before it if things all fall right. That's a big if but at 99-1 it's worth a flyer IMO. Hit that JBEX and that's a lifelong feather in your cap. Hell yeah for a few bucks.

Please let me know when he is entered. Also, if he works today, that's a schedule change most likely with a race date approaching. If he stays on Saturdays, he's probably still building forward. Of course, the race will most likely be a Saturday race as well so maybe he's staying right with that. More often than not though, they will do something like a 3/4's work tomorrow, galloping out a mile or 1 1/8th, no work next Saturday and a 1/2 mile on Monday/Tuesday for a following Saturday race. So is there a race in 3 weeks that would fit the bill? Then one on the 1st week of April? There should be options for him on those Saturdays. That has him all set for the Derby if he is winning or running REAL big in those preps. But has to win at least one though I would think.

The Ky. Derby makes trainers do things that no other race would make them do. It's really something to watch as they prep towards it.

Thanks JBEX.

that is an excellent point about clement..if you asked me who is the best trainer who ,off the top of my head,seems like he's rarely involved in the derby trail it would be him

so it would seem that it's likely whatever the physical problem was that its behind him and he's ready to move forward..workout pattern information is great to know and glad you feel it's positive whats going on with him..especially the possibility that he's galloping out further after those works

the fountain of youth is in 2 weeks and the tampa bay derby (exactly 3 weeks as you said) is the week after (both on saturday of course) ..so if he were going for the former he "might" work today (possibly tomorrow), pass next saturday and do a half mile the following monday or tuesday .. push that back a week if its the tampa bay derby..both would seem likely targets if they're serious

I'll let you know when/if he works the next day or two and try to give an odds update mid afternoon on saturday..believe the betting goes to sunday at 6pm but have to double check that

appreciate the feedback str .. having a horse (or horses) to follow is always entertaining this time of year

[JBEX]

here's a little piece on him ..very informative

https://youtu.be/0kfI4ad61Y8?si=qL3lYldIyNVVYVZz

[batt33]

Just for giggles looked at the horses that have a 100 or better beyer figure for pool 4
13 Fierceness
24 locked
26 mystik dan
32 speak easy 103 first start Jan 27... no works since..
34 timber lake twice .. off since breeders cup last 2 works have been nice one with a bullet.

[JBEX]

Just for giggles looked at the horses that have a 100 or better beyer figure for pool 4
13 Fierceness
24 locked
26 mystik dan
32 speak easy 103 first start Jan 27... no works since..
34 timber lake twice .. off since breeders cup last 2 works have been nice one with a bullet.

mystic Dan's was on a sloppy track so I downgrade that a bit (understand not everyone feels that way) ..fierceness backwards in the holy bull but the other 2 imo are players..speak easy probably one of the big florida races and timberlake might be la derby since he's training at the fairgrounds .. former needs points so more than likely will have to be at least 2nd in whichever races he runs in

[JBEX]

mystic Dan's was on a sloppy track so I downgrade that a bit (understand not everyone feels that way) ..fierceness backwards in the holy bull but the other 2 imo are players..speak easy probably one of the big florida races and timberlake might be la derby since he's training at the fairgrounds .. former needs points so more than likely will have to be at least 2nd in whichever races he runs in

actually that is not a good fit as it's a final derby prep and he hasn't raced as a 3yo..final 2 legs of the florida or ny series makes the most sense although I believe the wood memorial (ny) has not been a good precursor for derby success



by florida I mean the gulfstream path..not tampa

[batt33]

Yes the last 2 kinda got my interest.. Timberlake is drawing some money in pool 4. I agree with the Mystik dan take.

[JBEX]

Yes the last 2 kinda got my interest.. Timberlake is drawing some money in pool 4. I agree with the Mystik dan take.

yeah I see he's 16-1 and locked is 20-1..think over 80% of the pool will be over the weekend so see where it goes

[Pigpen]

If Locked is sitting @ 19-1 on Sunday evening I am going to throw a couple cabbage leaves on him.

[JBEX]

If Locked is sitting @ 19-1 on Sunday evening I am going to throw a couple cabbage leaves on him.

[JBEX]

deterministic @ 78-1 with what I'm guessing is about 1/3 of what will be bet in the pool

[JBEX]

deterministic closed @ 94-1 Saturday and betting continues through today..worked another 5f bullet at pbd yesterday..#31 sierra leone is 5-1 and to me that is just ridiculous .. there are credentials but someone must have unloaded to make him that price which of course gives value to everyone else

I think deterministic will either go in gulfstream's final two legs (fountain of youth and florida derby) or the combination of tampa bay derby and bluegrass at keeneland (also 4 weeks apart) ..I like the latter better myself because I figure with a very inexperienced horse (assuming he runs well next start) giving him the jump of settling into kentucky early
might be more to his advantage pointing to the derby

if he closes around where he is now I think that's a sizeable overlay

[str]

deterministic closed @ 94-1 Saturday and betting continues through today..worked another 5f bullet at pbd yesterday..#31 sierra leone is 5-1 and to me that is just ridiculous .. there are credentials but someone must have unloaded to make him that price which of course gives value to everyone else

I think deterministic will either go in gulfstream's final two legs (fountain of youth and florida derby) or the combination of tampa bay derby and bluegrass at keeneland (also 4 weeks apart) ..I like the latter better myself because I figure with a very inexperienced horse (assuming he runs well next start) giving him the jump of settling into kentucky early
might be more to his advantage pointing to the derby

if he closes around where he is now I think that's a sizeable overlay

Thinking like a trainer JBEX. Not sure if that's a good thing or not. Lol.

[JBEX]

Thinking like a trainer JBEX. Not sure if that's a good thing or not. Lol.

saying I think it would be better is a little strong..obviously there's things to consider that I know nothing about..wouldn't be surprised or makes some sense might be a better fit .. there's definitely at least 2 options for him and ny (gotham) is also a possibility but I think less likely

[Pigpen]

Took the scenic 115 mile drive to Oaklawn yesterday and watched some live racing. I have my eye on 3 of these and if these odds hold up I will take a stab on the #14, #28, and #36. Will finalize if they stay in this neighborhood later today. 5-1 on the #31 is absurd.

[batt33]

I'm with the rest of the group 5-1 on a future bet?? yikes...

[JBEX]

Took the scenic 115 mile drive to Oaklawn yesterday and watched some live racing. I have my eye on 3 of these and if these odds hold up I will take a stab on the #14, #28, and #36. Will finalize if they stay in this neighborhood later today. 5-1 on the #31 is absurd.

he closed into a lightning fast pace on a muddy track ..exactly a performance I would downgrade..lot of it is chad brown and he cost over $2M ..I honestly think what deterministic did in august at saratoga is more impressive than what he did

[Pigpen]

he closed into a lightning fast pace on a muddy track ..exactly a performance I would downgrade..lot of it is chad brown and he cost over $2M ..I honestly think what deterministic did in august at saratoga is more impressive than what he did

Absolutely, he is 6-1 as I type. Terrible bet IMO. I bailed out of the #14 Forever Young as he dropped to 20-1. Stayed with:

#28 No More Time @ 99-1
#36 Tuscan Gold @ 89-1

GL everyone!!!

[str]

saying I think it would be better is a little strong..obviously there's things to consider that I know nothing about..wouldn't be surprised or makes some sense might be a better fit .. there's definitely at least 2 options for him and ny (gotham) is also a possibility but I think less likely

The fact that you are seeing things from the trainers view spotting races allows you to make sense of the moves. I think that is great that you have developed that and add that angle to your thoughts. Impressive IMO.

[JBEX]

The fact that you are seeing things from the trainers view spotting races allows you to make sense of the moves. I think that is great that you have developed that and add that angle to your thoughts. Impressive IMO.

thanks str

think if you're considering a horse like deterministic at this stage you've got to consider what the path might be ..kingsbarns we're fans of and anxious to see him run..think by the works both will be running sometime in march..look forward to seeing them both

side note..without looking I think final legs of triple crown races are worth more points than the lead ups..if deterministic can manage a 2nd or better in a 2nd leg race he might have a shot to qualify with the same result in a final leg .. he closed at 93-1

[JBEX]

hey str

was wondering what you think of deterministic (above write-up for ky derby future) ..if you were the connections of this horse and he's doing everything right,don't you still want to point for the derby in spite of his lack of seasoning..obviously something happened for him to be sidelined for so long but have to think if there were any doubts they wouldn't give it go .. is it really farfetched with his credentials that he could fire a big shot in the 2nd leg of a major track prep series ..or maybe (more sensibly) if there's an allowance race and he runs big use it as a setup to try a final leg somewhere .. he'd probably have to win the latter or a 2nd place finish in leg 2 along with one in leg 3 would probably make him eligible .. i have a hunch ,derby or not, this ones going to be a special horse..time will tell

This horse is different from most we see. IMO, mainly because C. Clement is training him and we just don't see him running in the Derby. It's kind of not his style and many of his horses are turf as is this one maybe.
I see from the pp's that they paid 625k for him as a yearling who is by a 40k stud. That tells me he was very well received with a big story behind him when he was a yearling. And from his 1st race performance, he seems "as advertised".

Don't know what went wrong but bucked shins is often the culprit which is no long term problem at all unless the cannon bones are a lifetime problem. Kind of rare for that to be the case, so let's hope is was simple bucked shins.

What I am seeing in his workout pattern is that he has already worked 5/8ths three times and if the seven day schedule holds, he should be working tomorrow morning. We will look for that. Those three 5/8ths works are screaming out that Clement is at least giving this horse a chance to get there. He only worked this horse 5/8ths once before running 7/8ths at Saratoga. And let me add that these really nice horses , when they go 5/8ths they usually gallop out a mile by the time they are over 15 per 1/8th. It just goes to the high quality of these animals. Normal horses like claimers just can't do that. It's superior athleticism.

Be interesting to see where he starts off. I am assuming not 7/8ths only because he is training him more aggressively than he did last summer for a 7/8ths race. So maybe 2 turns for his 1st start back?

I think he is keeping the chance of the Derby open and will run twice before it if things all fall right. That's a big if but at 99-1 it's worth a flyer IMO. Hit that JBEX and that's a lifelong feather in your cap. Hell yeah for a few bucks.

Please let me know when he is entered. Also, if he works today, that's a schedule change most likely with a race date approaching. If he stays on Saturdays, he's probably still building forward. Of course, the race will most likely be a Saturday race as well so maybe he's staying right with that. More often than not though, they will do something like a 3/4's work tomorrow, galloping out a mile or 1 1/8th, no work next Saturday and a 1/2 mile on Monday/Tuesday for a following Saturday race. So is there a race in 3 weeks that would fit the bill? Then one on the 1st week of April? There should be options for him on those Saturdays. That has him all set for the Derby if he is winning or running REAL big in those preps. But has to win at least one though I would think.

The Ky. Derby makes trainers do things that no other race would make them do. It's really something to watch as they prep towards it.

Thanks JBEX.

goes in the gotham on saturday @ aqueduct..likely wet track but sire's progeny excellent on that..still rather it was fast

[batt33]

Just for giggles looked at the horses that have a 100 or better beyer figure for pool 4
13 Fierceness
24 locked
26 mystik dan
32 speak easy 103 first start Jan 27... no works since..
34 timber lake twice .. off since breeders cup last 2 works have been nice one with a bullet.

Speak easy Running in the Fountain of youth.

[JBEX]

Speak easy Running in the Fountain of youth.

saw that batts..should be an interesting race

[JBEX]

This horse is different from most we see. IMO, mainly because C. Clement is training him and we just don't see him running in the Derby. It's kind of not his style and many of his horses are turf as is this one maybe.
I see from the pp's that they paid 625k for him as a yearling who is by a 40k stud. That tells me he was very well received with a big story behind him when he was a yearling. And from his 1st race performance, he seems "as advertised".

Don't know what went wrong but bucked shins is often the culprit which is no long term problem at all unless the cannon bones are a lifetime problem. Kind of rare for that to be the case, so let's hope is was simple bucked shins.

What I am seeing in his workout pattern is that he has already worked 5/8ths three times and if the seven day schedule holds, he should be working tomorrow morning. We will look for that. Those three 5/8ths works are screaming out that Clement is at least giving this horse a chance to get there. He only worked this horse 5/8ths once before running 7/8ths at Saratoga. And let me add that these really nice horses , when they go 5/8ths they usually gallop out a mile by the time they are over 15 per 1/8th. It just goes to the high quality of these animals. Normal horses like claimers just can't do that. It's superior athleticism.

Be interesting to see where he starts off. I am assuming not 7/8ths only because he is training him more aggressively than he did last summer for a 7/8ths race. So maybe 2 turns for his 1st start back?

I think he is keeping the chance of the Derby open and will run twice before it if things all fall right. That's a big if but at 99-1 it's worth a flyer IMO. Hit that JBEX and that's a lifelong feather in your cap. Hell yeah for a few bucks.

Please let me know when he is entered. Also, if he works today, that's a schedule change most likely with a race date approaching. If he stays on Saturdays, he's probably still building forward. Of course, the race will most likely be a Saturday race as well so maybe he's staying right with that. More often than not though, they will do something like a 3/4's work tomorrow, galloping out a mile or 1 1/8th, no work next Saturday and a 1/2 mile on Monday/Tuesday for a following Saturday race. So is there a race in 3 weeks that would fit the bill? Then one on the 1st week of April? There should be options for him on those Saturdays. That has him all set for the Derby if he is winning or running REAL big in those preps. But has to win at least one though I would think.

The Ky. Derby makes trainers do things that no other race would make them do. It's really something to watch as they prep towards it.

Thanks JBEX.

being it's a 1 turn mile and his debut win was at 7f closing the gotham is a perfect spot..why have him do something different (2 turns) facing much better horses for the first time



.

[JBEX]

deterministic closed @ 94-1 Saturday and betting continues through today..worked another 5f bullet at pbd yesterday..#31 sierra leone is 5-1 and to me that is just ridiculous .. there are credentials but someone must have unloaded to make him that price which of course gives value to everyone else

I think deterministic will either go in gulfstream's final two legs (fountain of youth and florida derby) or the combination of tampa bay derby and bluegrass at keeneland (also 4 weeks apart) ..I like the latter better myself because I figure with a very inexperienced horse (assuming he runs well next start) giving him the jump of settling into kentucky early
might be more to his advantage pointing to the derby

if he closes around where he is now I think that's a sizeable overlay

he's co-second choice @ 9-2 in the gotham..lot of respect for a horse who closed at those odds in the last pool..actually that was through Saturday but wound up closing at 93-1 sunday

[Pigpen]

he's co-second choice @ 9-2 in the gotham..lot of respect for a horse who closed at those odds in the last pool..actually that was through Saturday but wound up closing at 93-1 sunday

Watched the replay of his win. Could be anything. Hope he comes in and runs on the first Saturday in May for you.

[JBEX]

Watched the replay of his win. Could be anything. Hope he comes in and runs on the first Saturday in May for you.

thanks pigpen .. hopefully gets out a little better than his debut..based on what clement said in the interview (post 10) and his only start I agree with you

[batt33]

thanks str

think if you're considering a horse like deterministic at this stage you've got to consider what the path might be ..kingsbarns we're fans of and anxious to see him run..think by the works both will be running sometime in march..look forward to seeing them both

side note..without looking I think final legs of triple crown races are worth more points than the lead ups..if deterministic can manage a 2nd or better in a 2nd leg race he might have a shot to qualify with the same result in a final leg .. he closed at 93-1

We are still dreaming! Yes I put a couple of bucks on him..... never would have done it ..if you didn't bring him up... one way or another still fun to dream! on a side note did my money back guarantee on him for 10 dollars lol . I'll take it!