JBEX Tracking Thread N. America T-Bred and Harness

[Easy-Rider 66]

JBEX stated a while back to track his harness plays if I wanted to. Will throw his T-bred plays in as well. No Hong Kong plays. I know JBEX you do not think short term results prove anything so will commit to this tracking through 2020. Standard $2 w/p on every pony. Keep in mind JBEX does post in advance so he has no way of knowing the real time odds. That is a major disadvantage. Also the rake is a killer at 15-20%. Entertainment Purposes only. GL JBEX. Think you will hold your own here. Tough to get a + ROI, but maybe you can do it.

Will grade by the next morning. Will include track, number of races played, and money results for the day. Then Year to date. See what Happens. GL.

[JBEX]

JBEX stated a while back to track his harness plays if I wanted to. Will throw his T-bred plays in as well. No Hong Kong plays. I know JBEX you do not think short term results prove anything so will commit to this tracking through 2020. Standard $2 w/p on every pony. Keep in mind JBEX does post in advance so he has no way of knowing the real time odds. That is a major disadvantage. Also the rake is a killer at 15-20%. Entertainment Purposes only. GL JBEX. Think you will hold your own here. Tough to get a + ROI, but maybe you can do it.

Will grade by the next morning. Will include track, number of races played, and money results for the day. Then Year to date. See what Happens. GL.

I have no problem with that..you'll probably get tired of doing it after a while anyway. .other things you said are how I feel but that works against me also if things are going well (sample size)..not seeing live odds is a disadvantage but horses who aren't bet well do win..I think they are bad propositions over the long haul..then there's horses who are bet too well that i wouldn't play if you were playing live..that's why I prefer to do this as an informal thing


I wind up with odds across the spectrum at the meadowlands so that's ripe for bad nights when those mid -long odds horses lose and the more logical ones do also ..if you are playing Meadowlands live you are better off keying those types underneath in triples anyway with the logicals in 1st two spots..logicals = 2-4 lowest odds



i'm tinkering with hong kong so rather not have that tracked..more an experimental thing

[Easy-Rider 66]

Sounds good JBEX. Agree with what you wrote. As long as posters know that playing in advance is some what of a disadvantage we can move forward. Last time we tracked your action believe you were in 90% range after about 1K risked. Pretty good. Tough game no doubt. I understand with Hong Kong you do not have the speed figures and it is experimental so no need to track that. GL. Going to commit for long term. Interested to see how you fare.

[JBEX]

lack of speed figures at hong kong doesn't bother me..with the big fields there starting to think you need to be at least a mid range jockey to be worthy of a play..moreira and purton too obvious but the large majority are 4-7% guys and probably best to avoid also..4 or 5 guys who are in the mid range are probably the ones i want to focus on..but you get the idea..other aspects also but that's enough for here


so i'll post plays in here from now on

[JBEX]

gulfstream..wednesday


R1 #2 coin the phrase (9-2)
R7 #2 money come (6-1)
R10 #5 powerful words (30-1)




tampa bay


R3 #3 ray's silver storm (5-2)
R4 #2 general (6-1)
R9 #1 beyond the stars (8-1)

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK good deal. Yeah post your plays in here. If you want to keep harness thread going I can check that and give results here. Up to you. Like your attitude JBEX. Since you usually post way in advance players can tail if they want. Gives the guy on the street a leg up to see if you are hot or cold. Again think you will hold your own. GL.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Also JBEX if it's ok with you just going to summarize each track results not quote each race. Will grade that way.

[JBEX]

Also JBEX if it's ok with you just going to summarize each track results not quote each race. Will grade that way.

fine

[Easy-Rider 66]

gulfstream..wednesday


R1 #2 coin the phrase (9-2)
R7 #2 money come (6-1)
R10 #5 powerful words (30-1)




tampa bay


R3 #3 ray's silver storm (5-2)
R4 #2 general (6-1)
R9 #1 beyond the stars (8-1)

GP: 1 2nd Risk $12/return $4

TB: 1 2nd Risk $12/Return $5.80


Year to Date ( YTD) Risk $24/Return $9.80

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey JBEX: If you want to comment on trips feel free. For ex, the #2 R4 from TB horse got beat by a nose. Also will compute ROI after about 1K risked.

[JBEX]

ok.. just saw the replays

[JBEX]

you ok if I put night track plays in here? otherwise i'll put them in hart's thread.. doesn't matter to me either way

[JBEX]

going to post this and assume it's ok.. if you'd rather me not in the future let me know



charlestown


R8 #7 can he shine (9-2)

[Easy-Rider 66]

going to post this and assume it's ok.. if you'd rather me not in the future let me know


charlestown


R8 #7 can he shine (9-2)

Yeah post them in here. Will grade in the morn sometime. GL.

[JBEX]

Yeah post them in here. Will grade in the morn sometime. GL.

ok will do

[Easy-Rider 66]

going to post this and assume it's ok.. if you'd rather me not in the future let me know



charlestown


R8 #7 can he shine (9-2)

winner Pays $20.20

YTD: Risk $28/Return $30

[Easy-Rider 66]

BTW JBEX I am in this track for the long term health willing. Really interested to see how you do over a 10 month period. The Triple Crown season, SPA, DMR, etc. $2 w/p is default wager, but I guess you should have the option to move to $4 w/p if you see something you really like. You have an opportunity here JBEX. Hopefully you can take advantage of it.

[JBEX]

ok we'll see..as far as money management make the range $1-$4 with $2 the default..so if nothing is written it's $2WP..also the option to bet only win if only a "W" is after the bet (lower odds)


as far as track conditions and weather if the horse runs it's a play..keep it simple. .easy enough to check weather conditions early but of course I will wind up running on some off tracks (unintentionally)and have others that were meant for turf running on dirt or slop..just how it is

[Easy-Rider 66]

ok we'll see..as far as money management make the range $1-$4 with $2 the default..so if nothing is written it's $2WP..also the option to bet only win if only a "W" is after the bet (lower odds)


as far as track conditions and weather if the horse runs it's a play..keep it simple. .easy enough to check weather conditions early but of course I will wind up running on some off tracks (unintentionally)and have others that were meant for turf running on dirt or slop..just how it is

OK sounds good. Yeah gives you some flexibility on the wagers. and to keep it simple you post a play it's good to go. And if you change your mind on a play just note before post. Thx.

[JBEX]

seattle slew


that good ?? this will only happen due to weather and not odds close to the race

[Easy-Rider 66]

seattle slew


that good ?? this will only happen due to weather and not odds close to the race

yeah good. clear enough.

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R3 #7 shining colors (5-2) 4W
R5 #7 sea trident (6-1)
R9 #6 fentynola (20-1) 1WP
R10 #2 probably grace (6-1)



oaklawn

R7 #6 rip it ryan (12-1)
R8 #3 best of greeley (30-1)
R9 #7 tracking gold (4-1) 3WP



I am going 2WP on R7 8




fairgrounds


R7 #10 commander scott (8-1)
R9 #2 awishforgreeley (8-1)








.

[JBEX]

added oaklawn

[JBEX]

added fairgrounds.. done

[JBEX]

R3 @ GP a $28 horse wins who finished 2nd last out at the same distance and class..even finishing 2nd his final figure was a half length faster than par..the two big favorites (one being mine) were drop downs..average trainer and jockey (overall but bad meet)for the winner..the public (not excluding me) really does overbet droppers who often get the better jocks to ride

[Easy-Rider 66]

R3 @ GP a $28 horse wins who finished 2nd last out at the same distance and class..even finishing 2nd his final figure was a half length faster than par..the two big favorites (one being mine) were drop downs..average trainer and jockey (overall but bad meet)for the winner..the public (not excluding me) really does overbet droppers who often get the better jocks to ride

Yeah red boarding here but took the #5 in an HT game. She had best figure coming in. But like you said those drop downs with top jocks are tough to overlook. PLus she had no speed. But with the scratch of the #1 clearly best late pace last race coming in. was 6/1 at post jumped up to 13/1 by time race went off. did not post her in the contest with Hart as I am shutting that down till he gets closer to my risk amount.

[Easy-Rider 66]

R5 from GP see you have the dropper the 7. went with another dropper the 6. see what happens.

[JBEX]

Yeah red boarding here but took the #5 in an HT game. She had best figure coming in. But like you said those drop downs with top jocks are tough to overlook. PLus she had no speed. But with the scratch of the #1 clearly best late pace last race coming in. was 6/1 at post jumped up to 13/1 by time race went off. did not post her in the contest with Hart as I am shutting that down till he gets closer to my risk amount.

I have mentioned this at least a few times before but i'm kind of broken in to not take the obvious horse on paper..but even though i'm betting in advance need to kind of have a feel for how the public's going to bet the race..I really feel over the long haul the horse who runs well last out with mediocre to bad connections offers much better value than the drop downs

[Easy-Rider 66]

I have mentioned this at least a few times before but i'm kind of broken in to not take the obvious horse on paper..but even though i'm betting in advance need to kind of have a feel for how the public's going to bet the race..I really feel over the long haul the horse who runs well last out with mediocre to bad connections offers much better value than the drop downs

yeah good point. the fact that you dropped $4 to win on the 7 you thought she would get played I assume. went off 2nd choice at 2/1.

[JBEX]

fg R5 ...4 horse field and odds are

3-2(40%)
9-5 (35%)
8-5 (37%)
6-1 (14%)

thought i remember hearing over the years it's supposed to add up up to 125 which this does (1% not concerned) but just don't understand why it's not supposed to add up to 100 ?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Not sure either.

[JBEX]

Not sure either.

I really want to understand this one day.. has to have something to do with track take I think but can't put it all together

[Easy-Rider 66]

gulfstream

R3 #7 shining colors (5-2) 4W
R5 #7 sea trident (6-1)
R9 #6 fentynola (20-1) 1WP
R10 #2 probably grace (6-1)



oaklawn

R7 #6 rip it ryan (12-1)
R8 #3 best of greeley (30-1)
R9 #7 tracking gold (4-1) 3WP



I am going 2WP on R7 8




fairgrounds


R7 #10 commander scott (8-1)
R9 #2 awishforgreeley (8-1)








.

GP: no good RIsk $14/return $0
OAKLAWN: No good RIsk $14/return $0
Fairgrounds: No Good RIsk $8/Return $0



YTD: Risk $64/Return $30

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R2 #2 mudslide wicked (6-1)
R3 #4 mary lee and me (15-1) 1 WP
R5 #8 elle m'a souri (9-2)
R10 #5 pretty and fast (6-1)



tampa bay


R4 #6 nagini (9-2)

[Easy-Rider 66]

Just capped R2 from GP and landed on Mudside wicked. GL today.