2K on Race 6 at Santa Anita on Sunday October 7th

pacocn · 10-07-12, 01:34 AM

Originally posted by pulledclear

And Almost a Lady is dropping in class AGAIN! The Only price horse I see in the Race is the 4. The ONLY way I would bet this race is with someone elses money. GL

I hear you, that is the plan and lots of it.

pulledclear · 10-07-12, 01:35 AM

The 5 wont be that horrific a price because the 3 wiil bet bet hard to. If the pool opens with the 5 at less then even money she will win running backwards. I dont see that happening. I think the 5 will be about 7/5.

pacocn · 10-07-12, 02:10 AM

Pulled, i just don't see sa giving out free money,
the 5 horse has never carried more than 120 lbs.
I think this weight break is significant, and the 5
horse has had a history of tiring. I am leaning elsewhere,
but i won't make a decision until just b4 post.

pulledclear · 10-07-12, 02:32 AM

Dont over think it. 2k IS NOTHING compared to the pool ,it aint Finger Lakes for Christ sakes! Pick the horse you like and let it ride. Put a few bucks on Some other horse as a hedge so you at least clear SOMETHING. D U T C H.

mikemca · 10-07-12, 08:03 AM

Based on last winning race.

(E)----------------1
(E)----------------2
(E)----------------3
(E)----------------4
(E)----------------5
(P)-----6
(E)----------------7
(E)----------------8

From a pace standpoint I don't see how the 6 loses.Maybe the turf route last time dulled the 4's early speed and has shown some capability of passing horses.

If you think speed is king because of the track the 5 is your horse.
If you think the track is fair the 6 is the bet.
If you want to go for a home run then the 4 is it.

By default I would go with the 6.

Khiaao · 10-07-12, 08:25 AM

PN	Horse / Jockey	Trainer	Wt	_	Med.	M/L
				1	Quietasacat R. Bejarano	C. Gaines	120.00	$0	L	8-5

				2	Wild Dude J. Talamo	J. Hollendorfer	120.00	$0	L	5-2

				3	Money Cannon J. Valdivia, Jr.	J. Desormeaux	120.00	$0	L	8-1

				4	River Styx A. Delgadillo	V. Cerin	120.00	$0	L	12-1

				5	Bro Derek M. Pedroza	M. Pender	120.00	$0	FTL	12-1

				6	Super Ninety Nine M. Garcia	B. Baffert	120.00	$0	L	3-1

				7	Hume M. Gutierrez	S. Callaghan	120.00	$0	FTL	12-1

				8	Shakin It Up D. Flores	B. Baffert	120.00	$0	L	8-1

dirtcapper · 10-07-12, 09:52 AM

Apparently there is some inside bias, so I would bet 1, 2, 3. Of those I like 3 best, most recent win at track and distance. 2 had suspicious last race but might still improve, if it was my money I'd watch the replay. (Maybe it doesn't like dirt.) 1 also suspicious horse to me despite the jockey.

str · 10-07-12, 10:49 AM

Looking at yesterdays charts, it showed no inside bias to speak of. Hopefully, that remains today. You will need to check and see.

For those that have followed SA so far a couple of questions:

Does n/w 2 and open claiming in Calif. have as big a class separation as it typically does? It's usually significant.

Has training at SA on the new surface been an advantage?

BGboothA · 10-07-12, 12:14 PM

This is my first real focus on Santa Anita, so I can't answer the first question. But I have really been paying attention to horses who have had a chance to train on the new surface, and I have had a great Santa Anita meet so far (granted its like 5 days old now).

pacocn · 10-07-12, 01:20 PM

Bg Horse #1 had a real nice 3 Furlong workout on
the Santa Anita surface, I believe 4 of the 8
had a chance to train at SA.

pacocn · 10-07-12, 01:38 PM

Gentlemen, thanks for all the fantastic input,
i am heading to SA, and i will take all advice into
consideration, i plan to watch how the track is playing
and then make a selection. Thanks again

harthebar · 10-07-12, 01:39 PM

let us know your pick...ra ra ra ra

str · 10-07-12, 01:55 PM

Typically, a N/W 2 claiming horse running against open claimers that have won 3 times would be a mismatch.

This speaks to the 1 and the 4 horses.

The rider of the 1 horse took the mount though which leads me to believe that maybe it's not as prevalent as it normally is.

pacocn · 10-07-12, 03:05 PM

Str what would be your play with a free 2k,?

pacocn · 10-07-12, 03:06 PM

2 hours to post

pulledclear · 10-07-12, 03:13 PM

Go With your gut. GL Keep us posted. You know where I stand.

str · 10-07-12, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by pacocn

Str what would be your play with a free 2k,?

Because it makes me sick to bet on horses like the 5 ( big fav, suspicious drop, ) although this is not a bet, it is a free swing, the 5 could be played because at least it has won on dirt.
The 6 looks very interesting . The kind of horse that I would look for in a race like this. Wished that it had tried the dirt before but what the hell.
Wanted to think about others but the n/w 2 claimers are usually WAY cheaper than an open race so I have to assume it is out there as well.
Make sure the track is fair and not speed crazy and give the 6 a good look.
I wish I could help you more but my Santa Anita brisnet form looks like Chinese to me . Lol. Just not used to it.
If you cave in and take the drop down fav I understand but on principal, I would probably end up chasing the 6 at a better price.

Either way, I wish you all the luck in the world.

pacocn · 10-07-12, 04:01 PM

Str you are the man may go the free 2k on 5, and 50 on 6 of hard earned money, still ponderingb

pick4player · 10-07-12, 04:42 PM

take the horse that will be on the lead turning for home that is facing weaker. the 3 is a great bet with an under rated rider that is good on the front end and you should get close to 4-1 . hope you see this in time . good luck. when you win put some money on the 6 horse in the 9th .

str · 10-07-12, 04:44 PM

The chart of the 1st race indicates that the track is NOT a crazy rail bias and is probably as close to fair as SA will get. Outside speed won. Outside stalk 2nd. Inside best speed 3rd.

pacocn · 10-07-12, 04:51 PM

Pick I caught your post thanks I'll be checking till 5 mtp

pacocn · 10-07-12, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by str

The chart of the 1st race indicates that the track is NOT a crazy rail bias and is probably as close to fair as SA will get. Outside speed won. Outside stalk 2nd. Inside best speed 3rd.

with that said who u like?

BGboothA · 10-07-12, 05:18 PM

I am nervous for the guy!

I have to admit, after watching that 4th race with the quick pace and the easy hold of the 6. I woud have a tough time not putting 2k on the 5 here.

ANd then throwing my own money, maybe 100 on teh 6 and the 3.

But I would love to know what he is doing.

pulledclear · 10-07-12, 05:20 PM

The pool opened with a ton of early money on the 4!!! Let the pool settle and DONT jump on those prices on the 3 and 6 because they will get bet down late.

BGboothA · 10-07-12, 05:21 PM

Ohh yeah, those prices won't be close come post time.

pulledclear · 10-07-12, 05:22 PM

Im watching the win pool I think he just plunked it down went down to 4/5.

pulledclear · 10-07-12, 05:22 PM

Only 4k on 5 at this point.

pulledclear · 10-07-12, 05:24 PM

At this point the prices on the 3 and the 6 are H U G E.

BGboothA · 10-07-12, 05:24 PM

He is on TV right now!!!

pulledclear · 10-07-12, 05:24 PM

lets give it 10 minutes.

pulledclear · 10-07-12, 05:25 PM

I missed him

pulledclear · 10-07-12, 05:25 PM

Did he make a pick

BGboothA · 10-07-12, 05:27 PM

He said he hasn't made up his mind yet. Didn't mention SBR or HBD!! Had the chance!

pulledclear · 10-07-12, 05:28 PM

Price on the 6 is absurd!

pacocn · 10-07-12, 05:35 PM

Went 3