2K on Race 6 at Santa Anita on Sunday October 7th

BGboothA · 10-04-12, 10:55 AM

I don't run the HBD numbers until the day before. I will be more than happy to post up my thoughts on Friday evening after running the numbers for Saturday.

Ohh and congrats.

Here is the 6th @ SA on Saturday.

Purse $16,000. For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races.Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Claiming Price $12,500. Six Furlongs.

1	Bila Shaka (CA)	5/M	L	$12,500	J Talamo	124	P Miller
2	Lolly Goggin (KY)	3/F	L	$12,500	A Jimenez	121	D E Keen
3	Natalie's Academy (CA)	3/F	L	$12,500	E A Maldonado	121	M Machowsky
4	Buzznalawng (WA)	3/F	L	$12,500	O Figueroa	121	J Bonde
5	Scent of Chrism (CA)	5/M	L	$12,500	L Medina	124	M Calvario
6	Somenchantd Evenin (CA)	4/F	L	$12,500	B Blanc	124	M Chew
7	Kentucky Tale (KY)	5/M	L	$12,500	A Bisono	124	V Padgett
8	A Natural (CA)	4/F	L	$12,500	S Arias	124	W J Frazier
9	Secret Genius (CA)	3/F	L	$12,500	T Baze	121	S Knapp
10	Sheskey (KY)	5/M	L	$12,500	J J Hernandez	124	S Gonzalez
11	Fayleene (CA)	5/M	L	$12,500	J E Sanchez	117⁷	M Chew
12	What a Shill (KY)	4/F	L	$12,500	A Delgadillo	124	V Cerin
13	Heartless Honey (KY)	3/F	L	$12,500	A T Gryder	121	V Belvoir
14	Warren's City Art (CA)	4/F	L	$12,500	C Charlton	124	K E Craigmyle

pick4player · 10-04-12, 01:29 PM

Peter miller horse from the rail. They will never catch that 1 horse . It does suck you have to bet a 12.5 claimer but it is what it is . gl

pacocn · 10-04-12, 05:21 PM

Thanks guys for the input, however the race is on Sunday October 7th

trytrytry · 10-04-12, 06:52 PM

congrads!!! hit that monster...

pacocn · 10-04-12, 06:58 PM

Try, I will trytrytry

thezbar · 10-04-12, 07:14 PM

The Santa Anita marketing department does a commendable job with promotions such as the one you've won. G.L. on Sunday. I've won the 40 dollar contest a few times. They dropped that contest on Friday's which for me was the best day to be on track. Contests like that are a way for the horseplayer to combat the takeout issues and creates a more desirable and even playing field.

harthebar · 10-04-12, 08:00 PM

D'princess (FL) blew the turn last time out,.been hanging tough his last few starts ,i think the 1 has to be the favored,i have no idea of the odds,totally blonde looked ok last time ..this is a tough race my friend,.i handicapp watch replays .the 1 should get the lead...lets wait for the morning line..

pacocn · 10-04-12, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

D'princess (FL) blew the turn last time out,.been hanging tough his last few starts ,i think the 1 has to be the favored,i have no idea of the odds,totally blonde looked ok last time ..this is a tough race my friend,.i handicapp watch replays .the 1 should get the lead...lets wait for the morning line..

Harth, thanks man, i am looking forward to seeing that m/l

mikemca · 10-04-12, 08:42 PM

99% sure the 5-Almost A Lady will be the favorite when they make the ML.Looks like a standout by my figures but is a speed horse and this field is filled with early speed.Its a 8 horse field and 7 of the 8 won their last winning race setting the pace or right on it.The only off the pace horse in the field is 6-Lady Fairbanks.

BGboothA · 10-04-12, 09:57 PM

Looks like I posted the wrong race above...I thought it was fr Saturday, but its actually n Sunday.

pulledclear · 10-04-12, 09:59 PM

When I see the DRF PPs I will be happy to help.

pacocn · 10-05-12, 12:35 AM

Originally posted by pulledclear

When I see the DRF PPs I will be happy to help.

Appreciate it

scratbandit · 10-05-12, 10:33 PM

good luck on sunday and crush that ticket///

pacocn · 10-05-12, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by scratbandit

good luck on sunday and crush that ticket///

Thanks scratbandit, that is the plan, evidently if i hit the 6th race I can let it ride on
the 7th race as well. As an incentive to "let it ride" if i hit the 7th race they throw an additional
2K on top of the winnings. They encourage "letting it ride" I am leaning to the only thing that will
be riding after the 6th (if i hit) will be my Prius back home. Everyone's thoughts are appreciated.

mrginandtonic · 10-06-12, 01:00 AM

How does it work? So you can only make one WIN wager, is that correct?

pacocn · 10-06-12, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by mrginandtonic

How does it work? So you can only make one WIN wager, is that correct?

Gin, that is correct, i have to place 2,000 on a horse to win in the 6th race at Santa Anita on Sunday October 7th. If my
pick wins, i win, if it doesn't it will be a long drive home in the Prius (45mpg).

pacocn · 10-06-12, 08:55 PM

Looking at today's results at Santa Anita it seems as though most of the winners came from the 1-3 position. There were about half wire to wire winners and half the winners closed from 3-5 lengths off the pace

mrginandtonic · 10-06-12, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by pacocn

Gin, that is correct, i have to place 2,000 on a horse to win in the 6th race at Santa Anita on Sunday October 7th. If my
pick wins, i win, if it doesn't it will be a long drive home in the Prius (45mpg).

Tks, good luck to u tomorrow. Does anyone the drf PP for that race??

pacocn · 10-06-12, 09:13 PM

Mr. gin thanks, I haven't seen the drf pp for tomorrow's 6th at sa

BGboothA · 10-06-12, 09:37 PM

Well here is my breakdown for what it is worth....

You got 20,000 claimers with no win in last month and a half.

Distance is 6F.

The pace is going to be flying here, you got pace setters and quick outs in:
#1 QUEEN MARY
#3 BACKWOODS BELLE
#5 ALMOST A LADY
#2 JANIE GIRL
#6 LADY FAIRBANKS

My guess is that the 2 and the 3 fall back after a quick start and let the 1 and the 5 take this into a quick 22.xx pace. I would expect the winner of this race to come from the second group of horses.

That second group coming around the turn should be:
#3 BACKWOODS BELLE
#6 ALMOST A LADY
#2 JANIE GIRL

I don't see how the #2 can out run the other two down the stretch....leaving #3 and #6 to battle it out.

I think the 3 comes out on top, but betting against Talamo on this kind of horse is a bit sketchy.

If the pace is quick (and I think it will be) its the 3 or the 6.

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That being said, the 5 may go off on a really short price here, and IF, and its a big IF in my opinion. IF the other jocks let the 5 take the lead and the pace isn't in that 22.xx range. The 5 is not going to be beat. If they hit that quarter in 23.5+ and that 5 is on the front its over.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Good luck buddy.

My official bet would be on the 3 or the 5. I would really pay close attention to the splits and the course during the first 5 races. If you see the first races going to horses on the lead. I would play the 5 here.

BGboothA · 10-06-12, 09:42 PM

Here is the Brisnet PP for the 6th

SANTA ANITA 6th

pacocn · 10-06-12, 10:15 PM

Bg you da man

mrginandtonic · 10-06-12, 10:22 PM

Tks BG.

pacocn · 10-06-12, 10:23 PM

Bg I really appreciate your efforts and your break down, you make a lot of sense, I am very hesitant to go with the short price in this one, but I will pay very close attention to how the loam is playin

pacocn · 10-06-12, 10:25 PM

3 is getting a 2 lb break

pacocn · 10-06-12, 10:34 PM

Any of these horses breed specifically for dirt?

pacocn · 10-06-12, 10:36 PM

6 is very intriguing given the quick pace that will be set without question.

pacocn · 10-06-12, 10:39 PM

Early leans 3, 5. 6, and 8

pacocn · 10-06-12, 10:40 PM

Santa Anita are no dummies, this is a tough call

pulledclear · 10-07-12, 12:50 AM

Race looks VERY chalky which is probably in your best interest since its free money.

Predicted order of Finish

5 Almost a lady
3 Backwoods Belle
4 Totally Blonde
6 Lady Fairbanks

GL

mrginandtonic · 10-07-12, 01:10 AM

At first glance, the obvious pick is probably the 5- Almost a Lady. This will be her third race off a laid off, and she is from a solid barn. I also like the 1- Queen Mercury, Bejarano has ridden her a few times and should know the horse. But she draws the rail and I don't think she will be quick enough to get out, so she will probably get a pretty tough trip. The 3- Backwoods Belle also looks pretty good; she is one of the three horse that has multiple wins. As said by BG, the pace may be a quick one. So, my pick would be the 7- D'princess at 12-1 ML. GL on whatever you chose, I hope you win.

pacocn · 10-07-12, 01:23 AM

Mr Gin after perussing the drf i think it's important to note that d princess
ran a 107.4 on Feb 18 at Santa Anita in a 56K claiming race. This is a very competitive
time for this lot. Man this is a tough call.

pacocn · 10-07-12, 01:30 AM

Originally posted by pulledclear

Race looks VERY chalky which is probably in your best interest since its free money.

Predicted order of Finish

5 Almost a lady
3 Backwoods Belle
4 Totally Blonde
6 Lady Fairbanks

GL

Pull, i think just the opposite, i think Almost a lady is what they hope i pick, it seems very obvious
as the horse to beat, but i think i am going to look elsewhere, i bet 5 goes off at horrendous odds,
but thier are some intriguing horses going off at good odds and getting a weight break to boot.
Right now i am leaning 1, 3, 7, but i will make my final decision 3 mtp.

I really appreciate all the
input everyone and this has truly been what sbr is all about win or lose.

pulledclear · 10-07-12, 01:31 AM

And Almost a Lady is dropping in class AGAIN! The Only price horse I see in the Race is the 4. The ONLY way I would bet this race is with someone elses money. GL