Early Goalie Pulls Resulting in Live Betting Advantages

[Sunde91]

Specifically goalie pulls with 3 mins or less left in large deficit elimination games, like tonight.

By chance, I was looking at the box score for last year's gm7 BOs/Van, and saw there was an empty netter 3 mins left Bos leading 3-0. Typically a goalie is pulled at about 90 seconds(?). Pulling at least 3 mins is obviously a far bigger window for an empty netter

So tonight with the score 4-1 8 mins left, live was O5.5 -150. PL -3.5 was +135, but with 8 mins left, I took Over instead, looking for a Devils score or the early pull and empty netter. The EN was with 3:45 left. I go back on DVR and Brodeur was pulled with 4:02 left.

ESPN play-by-play does not say when goalies are pulled, making it difficult to tell how standard the early pull is looking at past results. If I knew for sure of the early pull, I'd have gone bigger.

This can be a big adv in the future that a lot of books will have no clue about (pinnacle had no lines at the time). Very clear the chances of 1 more goal with 8 mins left tonight were far > -150, assuming the early pull is coming

Could be a nice live system to use in elimination games with at least a 3 goal differential. If there's commercial for a live chance with about 4-5 mins left, the play would be the +money PL on the leading team. If it's earlier, like 8-12 mins, take the Over.

So, more savvy Hockey bettors, can you confirm the early pull in these games is definite?


Edit: I'm not overly familiar with the tendencies in exact situations that could result in different decisions. If it were only game 3, would there be a pull down 3-0? Is the white flag thrown in a 5-0 type game and the pull isn't bothered with? Would the ideal be a 2 or 3 goal deficit in an elimination game?

[DennisGreen]

Down 3 goals in a playoff elimination games goalies are, I would estimate pulled around 90% of the time with around 3:00-4:00 left. Down 2 goals they may wait an extra minute to pull the goalie but will still do it without around 2:00-3:00 to go.

This only applies to elimination games. If it's game 3 coaches are not going to pull the goalie when they're down 3 goals. They will play out the game 5 on 5 unless they score a goal. If it's 4-0 or 5-0 in an elimination game the goalie is not gonna be pulled. If so it would be extremely rare and pointless really.

During the regular season this year Boucher the Lightning coach regularly pulled his goalie down 3 which was unheard of. He was the only coach in the league to do this. This has a lot to do with why the Lightning were the highest over team in the league this year. I hit a bunch of overs on their games that were 4-1 late and ended up covering with the 5-1 empty net goal.

[ColdBeerHere]

Nice thinking there OP...I like it....will have to remember that for next year

[Sunde91]

Thanks. Is not pulling early in non-elimination games something psychological? Keeping the deficit as small as possible and maybe the coach doesn't want to send the message to his team that they are that desperate, while not giving the other side some more confidence.

[DennisGreen]

Thanks. Is not pulling early in non-elimination games something psychological? Keeping the deficit as small as possible and maybe the coach doesn't want to send the message to his team that they are that desperate, while not giving the other side some more confidence.

Yup pretty much. Losing 3-0 doesn't seem as bad as 4-0 I guess. Yeah exactly no point letting the other team get an easy one with an empty netter. It could end up being a guy who is snake-bitten getting that goal and gaining some confidence even if it is an empty netter.