A4U2FEAR's interesting hockey facts from the 2010-2011 season

[a4u2fear]

Use them or humor them as you may - I did some data mining using all of last year's games, odds, and results from last year in excel. Happy mining!

[a4u2fear]

#1) If you were to bet the underdog every game last year for 1 unit. You would be +27.54 units for the entire season

#2) An eastern conference team that has lost 3 games in a row, won the 4th game at home 72.73% of the time.

#3) A western conference team on a 3 game losing streak won the 4th game on the road 38.46% of the time

#4) In games where the moneyline is the same for the home and away team, the road team won 61% of the time.

#5) If you were to bet the under in every game last year for 1 unit, you would be up 17.23 units.

More to come....

[hydrosmak]

Interesting stuff

[a4u2fear]

#6) An away favorite greater than or equal to -200 went 5W-3L last year

#7) An away favorite -200>line>-175 went 7W-4L last year

#8) An away favorite -175>line>-150 went 20W-14L last year

#9) An away favorite -150>line>-125 went 61W-42L last year

#10) An away favorite -125>line>-100 went 91W-70L last year

[a4u2fear]

...many more to come, also, if there are any requests and they aren't too time consuming, I will look them up for you.

[a4u2fear]

#11) In the 1230 games last year, the total went under 621 times and over 546 times

#12) Betting the over every game to win 1 unit would've left you down 94.51 units ouch!

#13) Out of 908 home favorites last year, 502 of them won.

#14) Of the 502 winners from #13, 397 of those wins came in regulation.]

#15) If you were to bet a home dog every time it occurred last year, you would be down 27.17 units

#16) Betting a home team every game last year, you would be down 143.39 units

[TR88]

good thread and info

[DennisGreen]

Good shit you got right here.

[a4u2fear]

good thread and info

Good shit you got right here.

Thanks guys, plenty more to come (probably tomorrow). Got to clean up this poker tourney first!

[Jones10]

Great stuff right here...

[a4u2fear]

#17) Out of the 502 from #13, 42.43% of the wins were by 2 or more goals

#18) Home dogs won 43.17% of the time last year

#19) There were four games capped at 6.5 last year, all four went under.

#20) Of the games capped at 6.0 last year, the under went 34W-23L

#21) Under 5 goals went 88W-85L-57T

#22) Under 5.5 goals went 495W-438L

#23) Home favorites greater than or equal to -300 went 7W-1L

For those of you new to betting, betting those 8 games above would have you profiting at a rate of 12.5% -
300 bet / 400 won = 75%, you would need to win at a rate of at least 75% to be positive. The trend is 7/8=87.5%

#24) Home favs -299<x<-275 went 6W-1L

#25) Home favs -274>x>-250 went 15W-4L

#26) Home favs -249>x>225 went 23W-15L

#27) Home favs -224>x>200 went 49W-33L

#28) Home favs -199>x>-175 went 60W-44L

#29) Home favs -174>x>-150 went 120W-79L

#30) Home favs -149>x>-125 went 157W-149L

#31) Home favs -124>x>-100 went 67W-80L

It's very apparent from the above winning pct that people are more than correct when they say do not bet large favorites in hockey.

[LetsGoBruins]

This is fantastic! Are you manually extracting these? Any chance to get something similar for the ongoing season as long as its easy to link to or calculate and you're not doing this by hand?

[a4u2fear]

This is fantastic! Are you manually extracting these? Any chance to get something similar for the ongoing season as long as its easy to link to or calculate and you're not doing this by hand?

This season-no. I manually extracted the data for each day last year into excel. It was a copy paste method but still had to go for each day.

Keep in mind, this data does not include playoffs

[odog11]

This season-no. I manually extracted the data for each day last year into excel. It was a copy paste method but still had to go for each day. Keep in mind, this data does not include playoffs

Can we get up a points collection for you to do it for this year? My "guess" is that favorites so far(especially of late) are doing better than they did last year.

[LetsGoBruins]

Can we get up a points collection for you to do it for this year? My "guess" is that favorites so far(especially of late) are doing better than they did last year.

I am totally down with throwing some points a4u2fear's way for this data ...

[DennisGreen]

I have a couple of generalized ones from this year regarding totals.

1st Period
293-242 Under

Game Totals
250-248-37 Over

Grand Salami
41-34-1 Over

[a4u2fear]

I'd be willing I guess to give out last years as well. I was hesitant prior to the season because it was a shit load of work. I'd have to imagine the variance were seeing with the favorites now will pan out by end of season

[a4u2fear]

Will be updating this this weekend, wife's father having heart surgery so very busy

[a4u2fear]

Back, long week of family stuff....sorry if dupes, LETS GET TO THE DOGS!

#32) If you were to bet the underdog in the first 100 hockey games played last year for 1 unit, you would be +30.7 units. Pretty sure this was almost identical this year, basically telling you bookies don't know who the good teams are early (or you have Colorado who typically starts hot and fades real fast)

#33) Home teams in the +125>line>+100 range went 74W-92L last year

#34) Home teams in the +150>line>+126 range went 17W-30L last year

#35) Home teams in the +175>line>+151 range went 6W-10L last year

#36) Home teams in the line>176 range went 4W-3L last year

#37) Away teams in the +125>line>+100 range went 181W-155L last year, DEFINITELY WORTH IT

#38) Away teams in the +150>line>+126 range went 85W-138L last year

#39) Away teams in the +175>line>+151 range went 64W-98L last year

#40) Away teams in the +200>line>+176 range went 40W-50L last year

#41) Away teams in the +225>line>+201 range went 10W-25L last year

#42) Away teams in the +250>line>+226 range went 3W-13L last year

#43) Away teams in the line>+251 range went 1W-5L last year

[a4u2fear]

#44) When the over in a game is steeper than -150, it is 0W-2L

#45) When the over in a game is -149>line>-125 it is 95W-88L

#46) When the over in a game is -124>line>+100 it is 127W-118L

#47) When the over in a game is +125>line>+115 it is 54W-80L

#48) When the under in a game is 126>line it is 31W-34L, profitable nicely here

#49) When the under in a game is -149>line>-125 it is 192W-138L

#50) When the under in a game is -124>line>+100 it is 147W-125L

#51) When the under in a game is +125>line>+100 it is 138W-147L

#52) When the under in a game is +126>line it is 7W-2L, again, nice profit but small data size

[a4u2fear]

You could fade for example #45 and it would obviously be in your favor.