DG's 2011-2012 NHL Picks

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  • DennisGreen
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-27-08
    • 18369

    #2101
    LIVE BET : OTT/WPG Over 7.5 (+185)
    Comment
    • DennisGreen
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-27-08
      • 18369

      #2102
      Originally posted by DennisGreen
      LIVE BET : OTT/WPG Over 7.5 (+185)
      Of course I hit the hero live bets but not the chalky ones
      Comment
      • dugdogg
        SBR MVP
        • 11-10-10
        • 2708

        #2103
        grand salami under once again was the way to go...caps burned you a lot last year i remember DG...too inconsistent...like the hawks...they're getting crushed now at home by phoenix
        Comment
        • DennisGreen
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-27-08
          • 18369

          #2104
          Originally posted by dugdogg
          grand salami under once again was the way to go...caps burned you a lot last year i remember DG...too inconsistent...like the hawks...they're getting crushed now at home by phoenix
          Yup they pretty much made me 5k two years ago with 1st period
          overs. Guess I still have a hard time believing they're not the same team
          Comment
          • philliesfinest
            SBR MVP
            • 07-13-09
            • 1557

            #2105
            Originally posted by dennisgreen
            thanks guys and you're right. Feel stupid even posting another play tonight after that travesty Cbj/van under 5.5 (-119)
            best of luck,remember its a grind buddy people get greedy thats what the house wants!!!!!!!!
            Comment
            • dodgerblue
              SBR High Roller
              • 09-14-10
              • 232

              #2106
              Just regroup Dennis. I didn't follow today, mainly b/c I suspected that 10x was a chase bet - let's face it.

              My only feedback is that youre paying like a degenerate gambler vs intelligent investor. Chases, lots of canucks action, prop bets, hero bets, live stuff. Doesnt make sense to me, given how much you know. The way back to even is slow and steady. Cap the card early, no prop bets or live bets. Discipline for rest of season gets it done. For sure you are the best NHL guy out there.
              Comment
              • DennisGreen
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-27-08
                • 18369

                #2107
                Originally posted by philliesfinest
                best of luck,remember its a grind buddy people get greedy thats what the house wants!!!!!!!!
                Yup you are right my friend.
                Comment
                • mebaran
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-16-09
                  • 1540

                  #2108
                  Comment
                  • odog11
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-14-11
                    • 3874

                    #2109
                    Originally posted by dodgerblue
                    Just regroup Dennis. I didn't follow today, mainly b/c I suspected that 10x was a chase bet - let's face it. My only feedback is that youre paying like a degenerate gambler vs intelligent investor. Chases, lots of canucks action, prop bets, hero bets, live stuff. Doesnt make sense to me, given how much you know. The way back to even is slow and steady. Cap the card early, no prop bets or live bets. Discipline for rest of season gets it done. For sure you are the best NHL guy out there.
                    I agree with this, though I would say don't rule out the live bets, you seem to have a good feel for them most of the time.
                    Comment
                    • DennisGreen
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-27-08
                      • 18369

                      #2110
                      Originally posted by dodgerblue
                      Just regroup Dennis. I didn't follow today, mainly b/c I suspected that 10x was a chase bet - let's face it.

                      My only feedback is that youre paying like a degenerate gambler vs intelligent investor. Chases, lots of canucks action, prop bets, hero bets, live stuff. Doesnt make sense to me, given how much you know. The way back to even is slow and
                      steady. Cap the card early, no prop bets or live bets. Discipline for rest of season gets it done. For sure you are the best NHL guy out there.
                      I did really like the play today and the spot but bet a bit over my head clearly. See the main problem is knowing I'm down a bunch on the year.

                      I agree with most of what you're saying but disagree on the live bets. There's lots of value in live bets and as you see my live bets aren't always chases of earlier bets. When I do live bet an over that isn't looking good after the 1st most of the time it's a bet to break even. If it were a true chase I would be doubling up.
                      Comment
                      • dugdogg
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-10-10
                        • 2708

                        #2111
                        take a STRONG look at the ducks/canadiens under 5.5 tomorrow...for some reason it's at 5.5...thought that would be 5 for sure. i doubt even 3 goals will be scored in that one
                        Comment
                        • DennisGreen
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-27-08
                          • 18369

                          #2112
                          Originally posted by dugdogg
                          take a STRONG look at the ducks/canadiens under 5.5 tomorrow...for some reason it's at 5.5...thought that would be 5 for sure. i doubt even 3 goals will be scored in that one
                          Ducks will give up 3 minimum but probably score 2 or less.
                          Comment
                          • gigicash
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-05-09
                            • 2077

                            #2113
                            : fkd up loss tnight DG, good bet overall liked caps in regulation myself, didn't take em or any game tnight - but sht like this happens to everyone .. and too often I would say - your mind is somwhere else, you want to believe it will happen, bet big and after a couple of minutes of placing your bet you wonder if you've made a mistake or not - then the result pops up - and then it kicks in - you just fkd up - I don't know what to say man, it happend to me, I got out of it not once, many times, but you gotta stick with what works for you - bet small if you have to 0.5/1u max just for the fk of it - you will at worst break even at the end of the week - get your confidence back up.. and move on - start fresh, the right way.
                            Comment
                            • gigicash
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-05-09
                              • 2077

                              #2114
                              sometimes I feel like betting the whole board, but I realized it's not going to work long term.. and I can't do that.. that's why I started my "Prediction" section.. to get that feeling out of the way, you know what I mean ? and go for the best and it's working out just fine for me - not making much now, but I am not rushing either - will push later, my bankroll is ready.

                              go over your picks, see what works and set up a limit for each bet from now on, and you will be fine. gl
                              Comment
                              • DennisGreen
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-27-08
                                • 18369

                                #2115
                                Originally posted by mebaran


                                Thanks for the pick me up.
                                Originally posted by gigicash
                                : fkd up loss tnight DG, good bet overall liked caps in regulation myself, didn't take em or any game tnight - but sht like this happens to everyone .. and too often I would say - your mind is somwhere else, you want to believe it will happen, bet big and after a couple of minutes of placing your bet you wonder if you've made a mistake or not - then the result pops up - and then it kicks in - you just fkd up - I don't know what to say man, it happend to me, I got out of it not once, many times, but you gotta stick with what works for you - bet small if you have to 0.5/1u max just for the fk of it - you will at worst break even at the end of the week - get your confidence back up.. and move on - start fresh, the right way.
                                Thanks Gigi. Appreciate the advice. I let my emotions get in the way still sometimes unfortunately. These big plays of mine rarely work out anyways. All about a slow grind.
                                Comment
                                • DennisGreen
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-27-08
                                  • 18369

                                  #2116
                                  2-1 on the night ............Unfortunately the loss was a 10 unit play Happy my two late plays hit at least to start the rebuild. You won't see a 10 unit play from me again this year unless it is a playoff series bet, that's it.

                                  This was a good lesson for everyone never bet big like this, it ends badly 90% of the time. All about bankroll management. I learned that again the hard way for about the 5th time in my life Stupid play by me today. Can't believe I do stupid shit like this still. I talk myself into it seeing the fast cash and a way to wipe out a majority of my "debt" on the year and then a few minutes after you place your bet you ask yourself wtf am I doing? I won't be going anywhere though I'm in it for the long haul
                                  Comment
                                  • mike-dub
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 01-22-11
                                    • 765

                                    #2117
                                    it happens to everybody, well, i at least know it happens to me ALL the fkin time! if i bet small, its a straight 50/50 shot, but if i go big it becomes a 10/90. sadly, i never learn and i do it over and over again and im now in rebuilding mode too. im pretty sure there must be some kinda curse or jinx going way back to the early days of sportsbetting that keeps people from winning big! maybe if we sacrifice a goat or something...

                                    or it could just be how weird this season has been, even today with blues beating caps, coyotes beating hawks and even isles beating sabres.
                                    Comment
                                    • DennisGreen
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 11-27-08
                                      • 18369

                                      #2118
                                      Originally posted by mike-dub
                                      it happens to everybody, well, i at least know it happens to me ALL the fkin time! if i bet small, its a straight 50/50 shot, but if i go big it becomes a 10/90. sadly, i never learn and i do it over and over again and im now in rebuilding mode too. im pretty sure there must be some kinda curse or jinx going way back to the early days of sportsbetting

                                      that keeps people from winning big! maybe if we sacrifice a goat or something...

                                      or it could just be how weird this season has been, even today with blues beating caps, coyotes beating hawks and even isles beating sabres.

                                      Totally agree. Seems like the gambling gods or whoever is responsible punishes those who get greedy. Karma somehow fcuks you for going for the big score. I guess this was how Vegas was built and continues to thrive


                                      Yeah lots of weird shit tonight. Did not expect Islanders to win and definitely didn't think Phoenix would shit kick the Hawks in their barn
                                      Comment
                                      • a4u2fear
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 01-29-10
                                        • 8147

                                        #2119
                                        Dennis, I guess we were foolish for thinking a couple of players who rarely show up or try hard would. like the books say, usually player intensity doesn't affect the outcome by much
                                        Comment
                                        • DennisGreen
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-27-08
                                          • 18369

                                          #2120
                                          Originally posted by a4u2fear
                                          Dennis, I guess we were foolish for thinking a couple of players who rarely show up or try hard would. like the books say, usually player intensity doesn't affect the outcome by much
                                          Yup I guess so. I figured they would play hard at least for a few games to impress their new coach but nope
                                          Comment
                                          • DennisGreen
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-27-08
                                            • 18369

                                            #2121
                                            Wednesday Plays

                                            BOS/TOR Over 5.5 (-101)


                                            DET -0.5 (-110)
                                            Comment
                                            • Just Enough
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 10-15-09
                                              • 4187

                                              #2122
                                              good luck tonight DG!! looks good.
                                              Comment
                                              • investing4us
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 03-25-11
                                                • 128

                                                #2123
                                                Good luck DG tailed you on both picks.
                                                Comment
                                                • xraygord
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 09-18-09
                                                  • 2599

                                                  #2124
                                                  Good luck tonight DG!

                                                  I'm on DET ML x4. Hope this one hits tonight!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Vortexx00
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 06-18-09
                                                    • 1392

                                                    #2125
                                                    Best of luck today DG

                                                    Comment
                                                    • D3 Mighty Ducks
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 12-17-09
                                                      • 11939

                                                      #2126
                                                      Good luck tonight DG.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • MJG24
                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                        • 01-26-11
                                                        • 46

                                                        #2127
                                                        I'd lean under in TO, its Tim Thomas we're talking about. Love the Detroit play, Wings are 12-2 lifetime at home to TB.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • MJG24
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 01-26-11
                                                          • 46

                                                          #2128
                                                          AND this is why I don't bet over/under's!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • D3 Mighty Ducks
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 12-17-09
                                                            • 11939

                                                            #2129
                                                            Originally posted by MJG24
                                                            AND this is why I don't bet over/under's!
                                                            Not trying to be a smartass and to comment after 2 periods of play in the Bruins/Leafs game but there wasn't any edge whether to play the over or under in this game. These 2 teams can easily play to a 2-1 final or like we see tonight a 4-3 type game. Just my 2 cents and words of advice to not play the total in this game for next time.

                                                            One thing I have realized though and I don't know how accurate this really is. But these two teams tend to play more tight defensively when these 2 meet in Boston. Vice versa when they play in Toronto. Just something I've noticed after years of watching the Leafs play.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • fly fisher
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-25-10
                                                              • 2587

                                                              #2130
                                                              Originally posted by DennisGreen
                                                              Wednesday Plays

                                                              BOS/TOR Over 5.5 (-101)
                                                              Nice hit. Congrats DG. I tailed this one.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • gottiboy19
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 10-22-10
                                                                • 279

                                                                #2131
                                                                Originally posted by DennisGreen
                                                                Wednesday Plays

                                                                BOS/TOR Over 5.5 (-101)


                                                                DET -0.5 (-110)



                                                                You know I loved this play I played it last night, I forgot to put on here though! Well at least you know I was on this 100%
                                                                Comment
                                                                • DennisGreen
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 11-27-08
                                                                  • 18369

                                                                  #2132
                                                                  4-0 run since the Caps disaster last night

                                                                  Got 75% of that loss back now at least.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • jose21_us
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-24-10
                                                                    • 3844

                                                                    #2133
                                                                    very nice!!!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • philliesfinest
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 07-13-09
                                                                      • 1557

                                                                      #2134
                                                                      Originally posted by dennisgreen
                                                                      4-0 run since the caps disaster last night Got 75% of that loss back now at least.
                                                                      slow grind brother keep your head,but admit over my lifetime all my large plays seemed to lose but i learned from experience no more large plays just bet to enjoy!!!!!!!!you cant make aliving off gambling but the house makes a living OFF gamblers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • DennisGreen
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 11-27-08
                                                                        • 18369

                                                                        #2135
                                                                        Originally posted by philliesfinest
                                                                        slow grind brother keep your head,but admit over my lifetime all my large plays seemed to lose but i learned from experience no more large plays just bet to enjoy!!!!!!!!you cant make aliving off gambling but the house makes a living OFF gamblers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                                                                        Yup you are right. Sometimes I forget to be happy with gambling just supplementing my income
                                                                        An extra tax-free 3-5k a year can go a long way in the grand scheme of things
                                                                        Comment
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