DG's 2011-2012 NHL Picks

[somethingelse]

Speaking of line movement, Scoresandodds shows Detroit dropping again: Opened at -195 down to -170 now.

[dt33]

Unbelievable, after 3-0 lead after 1 period and I was sure its gonna go over. But hockey is hockey and it killed mine 2 games parlay, had Phoenix left to win 900$.
Oh well, keep up the good work!

[Cicima6709]

What he said

No but honestly I find line movement in hockey is the least significant of any of the major sports.

Most ML favorites of -180 or higher I find will drop pretty much everytime from the inflated opening line.

Just my opinion. Could be right, could be wrong.

Very few of my bets have been on games that are in the +/- 180 mark.

A lot of examples are when a game starts out and drops from like +155 to +150 to +145 overnight, and then could either drop or rise back again during the day. However, when i see a dog move 10 points (such as +155 to +145), id say that its been hitting at around 60% or more lately.

Obviously need a much greater sample, but so far, early line movement on dogs has been incredibly impressive.

Something that i thought was interesting...my buddy and I went back and looked at older games that we didnt know the result of. We just looked at line movement, and we were able to very succesfully predict when the dog ended up winning the game and when it didnt.

There are def. skeptics of line movement, which is fine, but im pretty happy so far with what it has done to my bankroll.

Edit: The plays i posted today (http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-bet...-big-card.html) are based on line movement, so hopefully it keeps up the hot streak and keeps winning.

[CanuckG]

All over the Panthers tonight really like them vs Chicago.....what you leaning towards DG?

[DennisGreen]

All over the Panthers tonight really like them vs Chicago.....what you leaning towards DG?

Not betting that game but my gut says Panthers too. Not too sure why but could definitely see them winning tonight.

[RoadDog]

Cicima, it would help a lot more for me to understand if you use an example for a game tonight. The Coyotes opened up as -115 favorites over the Preds. The early line movement pushed that to -110 Nashville. Under your reasoning the Preds would be the play by following the early movement? If I'm wrong, please explain. Thanks.

[dugdogg]

looking at the redwings game, that is HUGE ml movement...however the -0.5 regulation time line has gone up from -120 to -125...so what exactly is that saying? that if the wings are to win it will be in regulation?? if it goes to OT then calgary should take it??

also a heads up that the grand salami under is in play tonight...more than 8 games on the schedule...saturday as well...hit the under hard...only 1 under has lost this entire year with that many games on the board

[Cicima6709]

Cicima, it would help a lot more for me to understand if you use an example for a game tonight. The Coyotes opened up as -115 favorites over the Preds. The early line movement pushed that to -110 Nashville. Under your reasoning the Preds would be the play by following the early movement? If I'm wrong, please explain. Thanks.

TIME NAS PHO
11/03 04:48 PM -115 +106
11/03 01:24 PM -110 +102
11/03 12:57 PM -106 -102
11/03 12:42 PM -104 -104
11/03 10:15 AM -103 -105
11/03 10:11 AM +101 -109
11/03 08:45 AM +103 -111
11/03 12:29 AM +104 -113
11/02 03:20 PM +106 -115


I use pinnacle to track the lines. NASH opens up +106, but overnight get moved to +103. Line movement that simple is enough to make it a play IMO.

Here is a better example...

TIME EDM LA
11/03 02:52 PM +147 -160
11/03 02:43 PM +145 -157
11/03 02:15 PM +152 -165
11/03 11:41 AM +150 -163
11/03 10:06 AM +152 -165
11/03 08:01 AM +154 -167
11/02 04:52 PM +156 -170
11/02 04:51 PM +158 -172
11/02 03:29 PM +161 -175
11/02 03:29 PM +163 -177
11/02 03:20 PM +165 -180


Oilers open up +165, and get hit to +156 right away. This tells me the play is on the Oilers.

Some people may not agree with this, and no one really knows for sure how and when and why the books adjust their lines, but many belive that is sharp money that causes these initial swings. And if you follow the early movement, IMO you will come out on top.


Sorry for clogging up your thread DG...hope its ok.

[RoadDog]

Great stuff. Thanks, really appreciate it.

[DennisGreen]

No man thanks for sharing. I find this whole line movement thing very interesting

[RoadDog]

Can you post a link to the line movement page you just posted, or do you have to be a pinnacle member?

[DennisGreen]

Thursday Plays

TOR/CBJ Over 1.5 (1st) (-111)

TOR/CBJ Over 5.5 (-106)

NJ/PHI Over 1.5 (1st) (+111)

DET Over 2.5 (-151)

MIN Under 2.5 (-115)

VAN -0.5 (+112)

EDM/LA Under 5 (-113)

[RAVENSFAN]

Cpl questions :
1) for those pinnacle times are u just manually copying those down and those happens to be the times u checked? I use that method but didn't have a tracking system for it....
2) hey DG. You pick a lot of 1st period overs. Where do u get and what data are u using for calculating those or deciding to roll with those plays? Thanks guys

[DennisGreen]

Cpl questions :
1) for those pinnacle times are u just manually copying those down and those happens to be the times u checked? I use that method but didn't have a tracking system for it....
2) hey DG. You pick a lot of 1st period overs. Where do u get and what data are u using for calculating those or deciding to roll with those plays? Thanks guys

http://raregamblinginfo.blogspot.com/2011/10/nhl-1st-period-overunder-stats-tuesday.html

AND

http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20122ALLSAAALL&sort=goalsInPeriod1&viewName=goalsByPeriod

[Cicima6709]

1) for those pinnacle times are u just manually copying those down and those happens to be the times u checked? I use that method but didn't have a tracking system for it....

Can you post a link to the line movement page you just posted, or do you have to be a pinnacle member?

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nhl-hockey/

Lol, i cant imagine manually tracking the odds. That would take a ridiculous amount of time. Go to that link, and click on the odds under the pinnacle column. It tells you the line movement. For the most part, it is accurate. Sometimes a few minutes off.

http://www.sbrforum.com/nhl-hockey/odds-scores/

Go the the link above to see line movement for past games. Find the date you want, and click on Odds History: Money Line...under the game you want to see.

[TomJSports]

Really like those two first period overs, have them parlayed (at ~283), so obviously I hope they both hit.

[xraygord]

Best of luck boys. Too much to look and not enough time. This working thing sucks, I sometimes only get a half hour to study before the games start. Anyway, I'm gonna tail the TOR/CLB full game over.


edit: lol just noticed my Beat The Prick badge. Now I get one for going 3-1 in week 8 and winning 166x2 pts. But I didn't get one in week 6 when I went 4-0 and finished 7th overall and winning 186x2 pts. Weird.

[Boxing Champ]

You guy wanna make sure you use reverse line movement...not just line movement...
If a team is a public play and line the followes, most likely it's a trap, and sharps will pound it 5 min before the start of the game... You can't just follow line movement blindly. you have to have a lot of real time data and percentages
available to you and most important you gotta know what ta fak you're doing if you wanna base your plays on line movements..Otherwise you will end up making those deposits again and again..

[broadway6]

You guy wanna make sure you use reverse line movement...not just line movement...
If a team is a public play and line the followes, most likely it's a trap, and sharps will pound it 5 min before the start of the game... You can't just follow line movement blindly. you have to have a lot of real time data and percentages
available to you and most important you gotta know what ta fak you're doing if you wanna base your plays on line movements..Otherwise you will end up making those deposits again and again..

[TomJSports]

Best of luck boys. Too much to look and not enough time. This working thing sucks, I sometimes only get a half hour to study before the games start. Anyway, I'm gonna tail the TOR/CLB full game over.


edit: lol just noticed my Beat The Prick badge. Now I get one for going 3-1 in week 8 and winning 166x2 pts. But I didn't get one in week 6 when I went 4-0 and finished 7th overall and winning 186x2 pts. Weird.

I think they just now added those badges. I'd have 3 or 4 I think. Been terrible last couple of weeks, was in the top 100 for a bit. Never play pigskin though.

[TomJSports]

Crap, Ben Scrivens is playing...I had more faith with Gustavsson and the over. Hope it takes Scrivens a bit and is star struck by the...Blue Jackets?

[TomJSports]

Like the Hedberg/Bob matchup. Sorry for double posting, why can't I edit posts?

[waynaholic]

anyone know where i can find ref assignments for the games?

[Cicima6709]

You guy wanna make sure you use reverse line movement...not just line movement...
If a team is a public play and line the followes, most likely it's a trap, and sharps will pound it 5 min before the start of the game... You can't just follow line movement blindly. you have to have a lot of real time data and percentages
available to you and most important you gotta know what ta fak you're doing if you wanna base your plays on line movements..Otherwise you will end up making those deposits again and again..

Reverse line movement doesnt always work because you really dont know how much money the book has on both teams, so the %s we get thrown at us could mean nothing.

I dont pay attention to line movement during the day much because, like you said, that could be because of the public or for the public (a trap).

I have an excel sheet that tracks movements, how much and when, etc, and the results of the movement. I have found that early movement, in the long run, is a better predictor of the result of the game then Reverse Line Movement, or where the late money (last few minutes when line gets pounded) comes in.

Again, this is just my opinion, and im not saying this is the right way to go, there are a lot of ways to analyze line movement, but i have found that this is the most successful.

[xraygord]

I think they just now added those badges. I'd have 3 or 4 I think. Been terrible last couple of weeks, was in the top 100 for a bit. Never play pigskin though.

I have been slaying in NFL this year so far. Went 0-3 in week 7, but won in every other week so far. It'll probably even out by the end of the season though.

[DennisGreen]

God damn Scrivens! Robbed Columbus twice already. Shutout coming for him in his first NHL start.

Leafs PP now come on snipe one.

[CanuckG]

Un ******* real Columbus had 10000 chances can't get my over 1.5 1P

[DEUCED]

God damn Scrivens! Robbed Columbus twice already. Shutout coming for him in his first NHL start.

Leafs PP now come on snipe one.

Left wing lock had Gustavsson. Who is this Scrivens guy? Last minute change? Yikes.

[CanuckG]

Boom 2-0 leafs yes!

[DennisGreen]

Left wing lock had Gustavsson. Who is this Scrivens guy? Last minute change? Yikes.

Yup slow rolled. Leafs didn't announce Scrivens was starting until pre-game warmup. CBJ woulda scored on Gustafsson for sure.

[Dayman]

LOL, these 1st period overs always seem to come through with seconds left...Whatever we`ll take it. Good job DG, keep em coming man

[DennisGreen]

Hahahaha no way. Is this real life?

[pickemtowinem]

dude, you are the 1st period o1.5 guy of the year.
lovely job. keep hitting em!

[investing4us]

Nice pick DG on the Tor over in the 1st.

[Cicima6709]

lol lucky ************! congrats!

can i borrow some of that luck?