Does back to back games create fatigue in NHL?

[JoJo5473]

I have been thinking about betting on NHL and I wonder if fatigue is a factor in NHL hockey games, especially in back to back games (I am a fan of the NBA and I assume there are back to back games in NHL since its season structure is very similar to that of the NBA). When you read game recaps, do you come across analysis and players' comments on fatigue and back to back games, low scoring, etc?

[DennisGreen]

Fatigue is definitely a factor in back to back games. Teams occasionally play 3 games in 4 nights as well. In general fading a team on a back to back can be good if you pick your spots. Quite often the back up goalie starts the second leg of back to backs as well.

[a4u2fear]

I looked into whether over or under is profitable on the second game, neither was.....

[ColdBeerHere]

Don't need to look anything up..it's definitely a factor...these guys exert alot of energy skating and hitting...It's a physical game....Back to back definitely makes a difference...

[xraygord]

If it's a factor, I'm sure the line will reflect that.

[Sawyer]

Not much. These are professional athletes after all.

[JoJo5473]

Fatigue is definitely a factor in back to back games. Teams occasionally play 3 games in 4 nights as well. In general fading a team on a back to back can be good if you pick your spots. Quite often the back up goalie starts the second leg of back to backs as well.

I will be looking into 3 games in 4 days, but goalies, isn't their stamina supposed to be least challenged among all players since they basically stand at one place most of the time in a game?

[dcollins86]

I have been looking into this the past few days. I have collated the results from the past 4 seasons and the league averages are as follows:
Team playing at home after 1 day gap (B2B) - win 51.90% of the time
Team playing at home after 2 day gap - win 54.41% of the time
Team playing at home after 3 or more days gap - win 55.56% of the time

Team Playing on the road after 1 day gap (B2B) - win 44.06% of the time
Team Playing on the road after 2 day gap - win 45.94% of the time
Team Playing on the road after 3 or more days gap - win 45.96% of the time

As you can see there isn't a huge difference but still enough to have an affect over the course of a seasons betting. I also have this broken down by team. If anyone wants the spreadsheet I'll be happy to email it to them.

[a4u2fear]

I have been looking into this the past few days. I have collated the results from the past 4 seasons and the league averages are as follows: Team playing at home after 1 day gap (B2B) - win 51.90% of the time Team playing at home after 2 day gap - win 54.41% of the time Team playing at home after 3 or more days gap - win 55.56% of the time Team Playing on the road after 1 day gap (B2B) - win 44.06% of the time Team Playing on the road after 2 day gap - win 45.94% of the time Team Playing on the road after 3 or more days gap - win 45.96% of the time As you can see there isn't a huge difference but still enough to have an affect over the course of a seasons betting. I also have this broken down by team. If anyone wants the spreadsheet I'll be happy to email it to them.

Not a huge difference, but the lines made by Vegas are against you. It doesn't matter if the win pct is 55.56% if the odds are not in your favor. They know it affects the outcome, so the lines are made accordingly.

[mcaulay777]

It depends on where the back to back games are played. I think its the travel more then fatigue Just off of memory no stats.If a team goes into To So Cal to Play the Kings and Ducks then up to San Jose those 3 cities are not far enough to make much of a differance or to Florida to play Lightning then Panthers you could add Alberta in there too if a team flys into there to play Flames and Oilers on back to back nights but say a team Plays San Jose then has to fly to Detroit to play the Wings then it could be a factor but i think Las Vegas has adjusted to that so the Wings could be to high a number in that situation.

[mcaulay777]

I can think of one play last year.The Leafs had a very tough game against Montreal i think the team was at home lost in overtime.Then had to get on a plane fly down to Atlanta to play the now defunct Thrashers.Seemed like a know brainer to play Atlanta they were not much of a favourite either Leafs ended up wininng big so it does not always work out.

[a4u2fear]

It doesn't matter. If the line is -150 and you find out it wins 55% of the time, it's a dumb bet. I've done the line analysis for these types of events and its a loser.

[widebody2]

I have been looking into this the past few days. I have collated the results from the past 4 seasons and the league averages are as follows:
Team playing at home after 1 day gap (B2B) - win 51.90% of the time
Team playing at home after 2 day gap - win 54.41% of the time
Team playing at home after 3 or more days gap - win 55.56% of the time

Team Playing on the road after 1 day gap (B2B) - win 44.06% of the time
Team Playing on the road after 2 day gap - win 45.94% of the time
Team Playing on the road after 3 or more days gap - win 45.96% of the time

As you can see there isn't a huge difference but still enough to have an affect over the course of a seasons betting. I also have this broken down by team. If anyone wants the spreadsheet I'll be happy to email it to them.

Obviously it is going to be a factor in win percents....how could it not be. That does not really matter though. You need to do these same calculations finding win percents ATS. Sometimes you will actually see a reverse effect because people think b2b has more effect than it actually does.

[Rich Boy]

Factor in how many days rest the opposing team in playing on, how late it is in the season (back to backs early on probably wont make that much diff), travel distances between games (factor in time zone changes/jet lag), and if its a home/road b2b

I usually do see books compensating for back to backs, roughly adding 20-30 cents to a line.

Betting this blindly is not a good idea, you will probably lose.

[keemosabi]

Obviously it is going to be a factor in win percents....how could it not be. That does not really matter though. You need to do these same calculations finding win percents ATS. Sometimes you will actually see a reverse effect because people think b2b has more effect than it actually does.

What about a chase system that fades teams on the back end of back-to-back games? Has anybody done research on that?

I was considering running a system with multiple labby lines, one line for each team's back-to-back game number. For example, one line for every team's first b2b game, so 30 plays on that line, and so on.

[widebody2]

I don't know honestly. For the NBA there is a really powerful query at killersports.com. I will tell you that a system like this would not work for the NBA and the query proves it. Basically people over value the worth of a b2b and the oddsmakers know this, so they also over-value the b2b to keep 50% totals on both side s of the spread. For the NBA you would honestly be slightly better off actually betting on the teams playing the trail end of a b2b....totally counter intuitive. Can't say for the NHL because I don't know anywhere to calculate those results.


I am actually just looking for a place that has all past spreads for NHL games and am having trouble even finding that

[bigsmitty]

Not much. These are professional athletes after all.

Sawyer you must have played volleyball back in college...Of course it's a factor but it's reflected in any reasonable line.

[lolguy999]

the line is significantly different as bookies give teams on b2b better odds so you can bet on it that it's generally an issue however big or small

[oj-thejuice]

of course there is

[vaenu]

of course there is

[Nakazilla]

I have been looking into this the past few days. I have collated the results from the past 4 seasons and the league averages are as follows:
Team playing at home after 1 day gap (B2B) - win 51.90% of the time
Team playing at home after 2 day gap - win 54.41% of the time
Team playing at home after 3 or more days gap - win 55.56% of the time

Team Playing on the road after 1 day gap (B2B) - win 44.06% of the time
Team Playing on the road after 2 day gap - win 45.94% of the time
Team Playing on the road after 3 or more days gap - win 45.96% of the time

As you can see there isn't a huge difference but still enough to have an affect over the course of a seasons betting. I also have this broken down by team. If anyone wants the spreadsheet I'll be happy to email it to them.

Do you still have the spreadsheet? Think you could send it to me? Also, was wondering how much the numbers would change if you only calculated the results after a 1-day gap when the other team had at least a 2-day gap and was theoretically better rested.

[nammertl]

yeah, teams playing back to back especially away should suffer some consequence. on the flipside, i notice that teams that take too much time off have similar consequences.

[PAULYPOKER]

Does back to back games create fatigue in NHL?

Does running in a marathon 2 days in a row create fatigue?