DG's 2010-2011 NHL Thread

[JVP3122]

Hey DG curious question: how come you don't increase your unit amount to 200, 300 etc? Or is it so the books don't cut you off? I'm fairly new to sports betting so that's why I ask

I've got to think it's because his bankroll to start the season is only at about $3000. If he were wagering $300/unit early on he would have almost completely depleted his bankroll with the rough start to the season.

[DennisGreen]

Oddly enough, DG, I don't think Bookmaker has hockey team totals. I've never had issues with Bookmaker, but not having team totals on a league like the NHL is kind of ridiculous.

Yeah I don't use BM much at all anymore. They have kind of disappointed me with their high 1st period overs and lack of team totals for the most part.

[DennisGreen]

Hey DG curious question: how come you don't increase your unit amount to 200, 300 etc? Or is it so the books don't cut you off? I'm fairly new to sports betting so that's why I ask

I've got to think it's because his bankroll to start the season is only at about $3000. If he were wagering $300/unit early on he would have almost completely depleted his bankroll with the rough start to the season.

JVP hit the nail on the head. It's bankroll management. If I was betting $200-$300 early on the year I would have been stacked and had to reload which I would not want to do. Once I'm up about $1000 or so I will likely increase my bets to $200-$300 minimum.

Also unlike some cappers I post what I actually bet no hero monopoly bets of 15 units etc. It's easy to say you're betting 5-15 units each game but actually doing it is a whole other ballgame. Sure I could be up 5k right now if I said I was betting $500-$1000 every game but then I'd just be cheating myself.

[docvinny]

nice run DG

[rb3b3]

JVP hit the nail on the head. It's bankroll management. If I was betting $200-$300 early on the year I would have been stacked and had to reload which I would not want to do. Once I'm up about $1000 or so I will likely increase my bets to $200-$300 minimum.

Also unlike some cappers I post what I actually bet no hero monopoly bets of 15 units etc. It's easy to say you're betting 5-15 units each game but actually doing it is a whole other ballgame. Sure I could be up 5k right now if I said I was betting $500-$1000 every game but then I'd just be cheating myself.

when can we expect your plays today? good run!!

[DennisGreen]

when can we expect your plays today? good run!!

Thanks. They will be up around 2 pm PST as usual, possibly a little earlier today.

[superjeff24]

Cool beans DG. May I also ask whether you start every season with 3k or move up as you increase profits? So that 2011-2012 you'd start with 7k for example. If not, why not? Thanks for the info, much obliged

[DennisGreen]

Cool beans DG. May I also ask whether you start every season with 3k or move up as you increase profits? So that 2011-2012 you'd start with 7k for example. If not, why not? Thanks for the info, much obliged

Last year was my first full year capping NHL seriously so I had like a $500 bankroll and figured I'd bet it and see how I do. It was a huge success so I started with $3000 this year. So yeah maybe next year $5000. I can't see myself ever going over $5000 as a starting bankroll though. I like to stay in a comfort zone with my bets which right now is $100-$300. I've bet $1000 on a few games before and man I was a nervous wreck the whole time I'd prefer not to lose too much hair over betting. I know to take my capping to the next level I'll have to up my bets at some point.

[Scully]

Congrats on a fine night yesterday Dennis. Keep up the solid work.

[Duby]

GL tonight. Nice run u got going!

[racer43]

good night last night. Looking forward to tonights picks.

[mebaran]

Last year was my first full year capping NHL seriously so I had like a $500 bankroll and figured I'd bet it and see how I do. It was a huge success so I started with $3000 this year. So yeah maybe next year $5000. I can't see myself ever going over $5000 as a starting bankroll though. I like to stay in a comfort zone with my bets which right now is $100-$300. I've bet $1000 on a few games before and man I was a nervous wreck the whole time I'd prefer not to lose too much hair over betting. I know to take my capping to the next level I'll have to up my bets at some point.

One of the savviest things said on this forum. Comfort zones are key, as they prevent you from chasing losses.

[Just Enough]

10/17

leafs (180-100) nice job giving the game away by taking a dumb penalty after you just tied it up. a-hole
tampa (273-210)

1-1 (+30) takin baby steps!!

[Just Enough]

10/19

caps (170-100)
sharks (100-50)

[BetterBizness]

JVP hit the nail on the head. It's bankroll management. If I was betting $200-$300 early on the year I would have been stacked and had to reload which I would not want to do. Once I'm up about $1000 or so I will likely increase my bets to $200-$300 minimum.

Also unlike some cappers I post what I actually bet no hero monopoly bets of 15 units etc. It's easy to say you're betting 5-15 units each game but actually doing it is a whole other ballgame. Sure I could be up 5k right now if I said I was betting $500-$1000 every game but then I'd just be cheating myself.

I notice there are alot of people who bet "units" ... and toss them around like candy... because their unit size is so fn small... I've recently increased my "unit" based on exactly what you were talking about, success, and realize that betting $10 units is pretty easy and putting 15x on it... but putting 15x if your unit is $100 is not so simple, EVEN if you are within bankroll parameters...

[incomeraise]

Last year was my first full year capping NHL seriously so I had like a $500 bankroll and figured I'd bet it and see how I do. It was a huge success so I started with $3000 this year. So yeah maybe next year $5000. I can't see myself ever going over $5000 as a starting bankroll though. I like to stay in a comfort zone with my bets which right now is $100-$300. I've bet $1000 on a few games before and man I was a nervous wreck the whole time I'd prefer not to lose too much hair over betting. I know to take my capping to the next level I'll have to up my bets at some point.

nice to hear, so when you started with 500 as a bankroll how much did u play each game for?
i am saying that because my bankroll is about a little more half than that(bout 300) and would like to know the unit i should maybe have for that?
thanks

[DennisGreen]

nice to hear, so when you started with 500 as a bankroll how much did u play each game for? i am saying that because my bankroll is about a little more half than that(bout 300) and would like to know the unit i should maybe have for that? thanks

LOL unfortunately my bankroll story wasn't one that should be followed under any circumstance. I was betting a $100 every game and then jammed my $1000 roll on the Canucks -200. So I got to $1500 and from there I started betting $100-$200 per game until I got it up nice and high. If you have $300 personally I would probably be betting $20 a unit. Ideally you should be betting less than that but I would have a hard time betting only $5-$10 a game.

[Maxi_EV]

Last year was my first full year capping NHL seriously so I had like a $500 bankroll and figured I'd bet it and see how I do. It was a huge success so I started with $3000 this year. So yeah maybe next year $5000. I can't see myself ever going over $5000 as a starting bankroll though. I like to stay in a comfort zone with my bets which right now is $100-$300. I've bet $1000 on a few games before and man I was a nervous wreck the whole time I'd prefer not to lose too much hair over betting. I know to take my capping to the next level I'll have to up my bets at some point.

To reduce your ROR (risk of ruin) to something close to 5%, you would need a roll of 50 units. So if your plays are in the 100-300$ range your roll could be in the 5000-15000$ range. With still a little 5% ROR.

To reduce your ROR (risk of ruin) to something close to 1%, you would need a roll of 75 units. So if your plays are in the 100-300$ range your roll could be in the 7500-22500$ range.

I actually have a 4000$ roll and I am tailing you for half your bets. NEVER TOO CAUTIOUS!

What do you want...I come from the poker world...VARIANCE can be rude sometimes...

[DennisGreen]

To reduce your ROR (risk of ruin) to something close to 5%, you would need a roll of 50 units. So if your plays are in the 100-300$ range your roll could be in the 5000-15000$ range. With still a little 5% ROR. To reduce your ROR (risk of ruin) to something close to 1%, you would need a roll of 75 units. So if your plays are in the 100-300$ range your roll could be in the 7500-22500$ range. I actually have a 4000$ roll and I am tailing you for half your bets. NEVER TOO CAUTIOUS! What do you want...I come from the poker world

Listen to this man he is smart. Plus his name is Max EV so you know he is smart with his money. Yeah I am a bit more of a gambler and not as disciplined with my money

[DennisGreen]

I notice there are alot of people who bet "units" ... and toss them around like candy... because their unit size is so fn small... I've recently increased my "unit" based on exactly what you were talking about, success, and realize that betting $10 units is pretty easy and putting 15x on it... but putting 15x if your unit is $100 is not so simple, EVEN if you are within bankroll parameters...

Exactly. The ones you know are frauds are the ones who keep increasing their unit size. They will lose 15 units one night then have their 20 Unit play of the month the next day. Then the 40 unit play of the year after that etc. A lot harder when you really bet your own money than the monopoly money that some do

[Sirjamesearl]

Thanks DG

LOL unfortunately my bankroll story wasn't one that should be followed under any circumstance. I was betting a $100 every game and then jammed my $1000 roll on the Canucks -200. So I got to $1500 and from there I started betting $100-$200 per game until I got it up nice and high. If you have $300 personally I would probably be betting $20 a unit. Ideally you should be betting less than that but I would have a hard time betting only $5-$10 a game.

I myself started with a roll of 500 on cfb and got taken to the cleaners betting $25 units...I went under $100 and started tailing you betting $5 units and it is hard to bet just $5 or $10....but I almost have doubled my hundred since tailing you...thanks DG...and 50pts to your next post coming...GL and keep up the great work...

[Open Net]

DG: 10/19/10: Your Canucks -1.5 +220 Bomutt. As always, thanks.

[DennisGreen]

I myself started with a roll of 500 on cfb and got taken to the cleaners betting $25 units...I went under $100 and started tailing you betting $5 units and it is hard to bet just $5 or $10....but I almost have doubled my hundred since tailing you...thanks DG...and 50pts to your next post coming...GL and keep up the great work...

Good to hear. I love making people money

[DennisGreen]

Did Don Cherry really say that Open Net? If so that is an awesome quote.

[Maxi_EV]

Listen to this man he is smart. Plus his name is Max EV so you know he is smart with his money. Yeah I am a bit more of a gambler and not as disciplined with my money

Bring out the picks,
I'll manage your money...

[DennisGreen]

Bring out the picks, I'll manage your money...

Almost have them finished up here.

[Open Net]

Did Don Cherry really say that Open Net? If so that is an awesome quote.

Supposedly, Dennis. The story goes that he was on air and the moderator asked him about Afghanistan instead of sticking to hockey. Anybody who knows Don knows his feelings drift correctly conservative. He was forced to leave the studio, but to a standing "O" from the audience. Who doesn't love Don?

[BetterBizness]

Exactly. The ones you know are frauds are the ones who keep increasing their unit size. They will lose 15 units one night then have their 20 Unit play of the month the next day. Then the 40 unit play of the year after that etc. A lot harder when you really bet your own money than the monopoly money that some do

I'm more referring to the ones who ACTUALLY bet their units... but their units are so small, that it's very easy to bet 15 units.... not even the chasers, which on this forum there are alot of... But just the ones that are tossing units up and down.... If was betting a dime on a game, with a 100k bankroll, there's not much chance I'd be betting 3-5% , even if i was feeling good about a 2 or 3 x play... I guess it's the raw value of money...

[DennisGreen]

I'm more referring to the ones who ACTUALLY bet their units... but their units are so small, that it's very easy to bet 15 units.... not even the chasers, which on this forum there are alot of... But just the ones that are tossing units up and down.... If was betting a dime on a game, with a 100k bankroll, there's not much chance I'd be betting 3-5% , even if i was feeling good about a 2 or 3 x play... I guess it's the raw value of money...

Yeah that's true as well. 10 units when $10 is a unit isn't much at all.

[DennisGreen]

Supposedly, Dennis. The story goes that he was on air and the moderator asked him about Afghanistan instead of sticking to hockey. Anybody who knows Don knows his feelings drift correctly conservative. He was forced to leave the studio, but to a standing "O" from the audience. Who doesn't love Don?

Haha I believe he said he. He doesn't hold back.

[DennisGreen]

Official Tuesday Plays

VAN Over 2.5 (-139) Pinnacle $278 to win $200
-Nucks will be without Ballard and Hamhuis so I think will have to rely on scoring more tonight. Offense was clicking last game may have turned the corner.

VAN/MIN Over 5.5 (+112) Pinnacle $100 to win $112
-Just have a weird feeling this one is going to end up a high scoring game. A rare public fade play here for me.

90% this is all I'm gonna have for today. Every other game just mind fvcks me when I try and find a play in it.

[BetterBizness]

Yeah that's true as well. 10 units when $10 is a unit isn't much at all.

I mean it's not "cheating"... and it's within bankroll parameters... but it's just not the same... I guess adjusting based on common sense is what you need to do in the end...

[BetterBizness]

Official Tuesday Plays

VAN Over 2.5 (-139) Pinnacle $278 to win $200
-Nucks will be without Ballard and Hamhuis so I think will have to rely on scoring more tonight. Offense was clicking last game may have turned the corner.

VAN/MIN Over 5.5 (+112) Pinnacle $100 to win $112
-Just have a weird feeling this one is going to end up a high scoring game. A rare public fade play here for me.

90% this is all I'm gonna have for today. Every other game just mind fvcks me when I try and find a play in it.

HOMER!

[DennisGreen]

HOMER!

LOL nope. If I was a true homer I would have taken them on the ML as well

[BetterBizness]

Official Tuesday Plays

VAN Over 2.5 (-139) Pinnacle $278 to win $200
-Nucks will be without Ballard and Hamhuis so I think will have to rely on scoring more tonight. Offense was clicking last game may have turned the corner.

VAN/MIN Over 5.5 (+112) Pinnacle $100 to win $112
-Just have a weird feeling this one is going to end up a high scoring game. A rare public fade play here for me.

90% this is all I'm gonna have for today. Every other game just mind fvcks me when I try and find a play in it.

The over on pinny 5.5 is -109? not +111