DG's 2010-2011 NHL Thread

Maxi_EV · 11-25-10, 04:31 PM

Ok! so new Labby Lines for me...

25.6 units to recover

line 1: 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6 (tonight's bet is here, tyring to win 3.2)
line 2: 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6
line 3: 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6
line 4: 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6

sapidoc · 11-25-10, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

I remember a guy who was telling me that a specific system we were talking about didn't work... I asked him what % of his roll was 1 unit? " Standard 5% " he answered. ... Standard 5% would have gone broke this week.... 1 unit should NEVER be more than 2% of your roll. I personnaly use 1%. So even after a week like this... I only lost 25% of my roll. It also leaves me enough room to start any recovering method. (chases...labby...martingale...etc...). Even if it takes me a whole month to recover, I like it better than "Standard 5% went broke" ! GL guys.

If you constantly use 5% of your BR, then you would "technically" never go broke if you counted the fractions of a penny you would eventually be betting. Remember your 5% amount is smaller on each bet as your BR shrinks.

sapidoc · 11-25-10, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

I probably know more than you will know in your entire life about variance, probabilities, standard deviation, margin of error, expected value, return on investment, risk of ruin and OBVIOUSLY BANKROLL MANAGEMENT!!!!

You know the saying about those who brag about how much they know...

BetterBizness · 11-25-10, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by DennisGreen

Good morning all. I woke up with a nice hangover and just saw again what a bad night I had. Just brutal this stretch I'm on, worst losing streak of my life. Anyways not much I can do now but keep grinding until I'm out of this hole I've dug myself.

Happy Thanksgiving to our friends in the South, have a good one

I'm gonna enjoy watching Tom Brady until this hangover goes away.

Thursday Play

COL/EDM Over 5.5 (-131) Pinnacle $262 to win $200

I am a Lions fan... The Hangover NEVER goes away!

DennisGreen · 11-25-10, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by BetterBizness

I am a Lions fan... The Hangover NEVER goes away!

They looked decent in the first half then imploded/Pats went nuts as usual.

Maxi_EV · 11-25-10, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by sapidoc

If you constantly use 5% of your BR, then you would "technically" never go broke if you counted the fractions of a penny you would eventually be betting. Remember your 5% amount is smaller on each bet as your BR shrinks.

No kidding...

DennisGreen · 11-25-10, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by Prey

This man is so +EV...

Didn't notice this yesterday. Welcome back. Your mother is very +EV

steelcity · 11-25-10, 05:07 PM

Damn my book has the Col ov at 6. Just gonna enjoy the game, GL DG.

Maxi_EV · 11-25-10, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by sapidoc

You know the saying about those who brag about how much they know...

The guy stated that I didn't know what I was talking about. I had to answer. Sorry...

Isn't it a penalty for being the 3rd man in a fight?

Maxi_EV · 11-25-10, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by DennisGreen

Didn't notice this yesterday. Welcome back. Your mother is very +EV

sapidoc · 11-25-10, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

The guy stated that I didn't know what I was talking about. I had to answer. Sorry... Isn't it a penalty for being the 3rd man in a fight?

Yea I tried to say it as nicely as possible. No disrespect, I like ur posts. Just seems silly that if you are some super university educated or habitual statistical-math-nerd (like me!) that you'd worry about proving it to someone who can't do long division.

There was a time I'd try to correct everyone's posts on horrible math and odds calculations but there were just so many and it was depressing that the community would repeat that stuff.

It sounds like you know what you're talking about, but if it wasn't for the people that didn't this sports betting stuff wouldn't nearly be as profitable.

Maxi_EV · 11-25-10, 05:37 PM

No offense.

keyboarding · 11-25-10, 05:49 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

I use chases to recover. Have you ever tried a chase with a starting unit being more than 2% of your roll??? GOOD LUCK! I probably know more than you will know in your entire life about variance, probabilities, standard deviation, margin of error, expected value, return on investment, risk of ruin and OBVIOUSLY BANKROLL MANAGEMENT!!!! You gamble to make money... Gl bud!

If gambling with 1% of your bankroll is your idea of bankroll management, you're a bigger idiot than I thought.

And yes, I have done chase system with 2% and been successful at it.

But all math aside, I know more about hockey than you and for that reason alone I will make more money than you will. Simple as that, pal.

Maxi_EV · 11-25-10, 05:53 PM

Still an exemple for thosr who don't get it:

Starting roll: $10,000
Day 1: lose 7 units. At 5%, this is 35% of roll.
New roll : $6,500

Day 2: lose 5 units or 25% of your new roll.
New roll: $4,875

Day 3: lose 8 units or 40% of your roll.
New roll: $2,925

Day 4: Lose 2 units or 10% of your roll
New roll: $2,632.50

Now, how will you recover that $7,367.50 now that your unit is $131.62 ?

By only betting 1% of the original 10K, but keeping that bet at $100, we would have lost 22% of the original roll. We would sit on $7,800 to either continue betting $100 as 1 unit or trying to recover using chases. I think 7800 is enough room to recover 2200.

God! Why do I always need to be understand? This was too long post on an IPhone...

Maxi_EV · 11-25-10, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by keyboarding

If gambling with 1% of your bankroll is your idea of bankroll management, you're a bigger idiot than I thought.

And yes, I have done chase system with 2% and been successful at it.

But all math aside, I know more about hockey than you and for that reason alone I will make more money than you will. Simple as that, pal.

For the 2%, we are saying the same thing. I chase with starting unit of 2% MAX. I said : "no more than..."

And for the rest :

You probably know more than me on hockey. I'm just a canadian donkey from Montreal...
You will often have the right picks...but will Vegas give you the right price? You probably don't have the tools to figure this out.
GL.

Prey · 11-25-10, 06:35 PM

Originally posted by DennisGreen

Didn't notice this yesterday. Welcome back. Your mother is very +EV

I couldn't keep away after this epic losing streak.

keyboarding · 11-25-10, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

Still an exemple for thosr who don't get it:

Starting roll: $10,000
Day 1: lose 7 units. At 5%, this is 35% of roll.
New roll : $6,500

Day 2: lose 5 units or 25% of your new roll.
New roll: $4,875

Day 3: lose 8 units or 40% of your roll.
New roll: $2,925

Day 4: Lose 2 units or 10% of your roll
New roll: $2,632.50

Now, how will you recover that $7,367.50 now that your unit is $131.62 ?

By only betting 1% of the original 10K, but keeping that bet at $100, we would have lost 22% of the original roll. We would sit on $7,800 to either continue betting $100 as 1 unit or trying to recover using chases. I think 7800 is enough room to recover 2200.

God! Why do I always need to be understand? This was too long post on an IPhone...

Your example is one where the bettor loses 4 straight days betting 7 or 8 units a night? Are you seriously this fukking stupid?

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

You will often have the right picks...but will Vegas give you the right price? You probably don't have the tools to figure this out.
GL.

You are chasing in hockey so that tells me something very quickly, you don't have the basic knowledge to make money in the long run.

DennisGreen · 11-25-10, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by Prey

I couldn't keep away after this epic losing streak.

I'm actually 11-0 I have been fading my posts

Maxi_EV · 11-25-10, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by keyboarding

Your example is one where the bettor loses 4 straight days betting 7 or 8 units a night? Are you seriously this fukking stupid?

You are chasing in hockey so that tells me something very quickly, you don't have the basic knowledge to make money in the long run.

The exemple is actually not an exemple. IT IS WHAT WE WENT TROUGH HERE IN THE PAST DAYS!!!!!

If for you chasing is about the sport you are betting on....well I can't say nothing here...

I'm out of this fight! I prefer talking with my 3 years old daughter. At least she understands that I could be chasing on "wether she will come to me or to her mom first when she wakes up" cause it's close to 50/50.

Prey · 11-25-10, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by DennisGreen

I'm actually 11-0 I have been fading my posts

You hate your followers in other words

tip: get shitfaced and go all in on devils on friday. great odds!

keyboarding · 11-25-10, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by Maxi_EV

The exemple is actually not an exemple. IT IS WHAT WE WENT TROUGH HERE IN THE PAST DAYS!!!!!

Because most of you don't know anything about hockey, thus proving my point.

Originally posted by Prey

You hate your followers in other words

tip: get shitfaced and go all in on devils on friday. great odds!

An all in play on one of the worst teams in hockey?

FlaxMartin · 11-25-10, 11:27 PM

prey just get the **** out of here

DennisGreen · 11-25-10, 11:30 PM

4 goals in the first 23 minutes and 1 in the last 37 sounds about right

Doesn't seem to matter if I bet 1st period or game total either way it doesn't hit and the other does

Betting every game tomorrow maybe then I'll win one.

CoZalon · 11-25-10, 11:35 PM

Why would you bet "Over" with a tired Colorado and a useless Edmonton?

DennisGreen · 11-25-10, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by CoZalon

Why would you bet "Over" with a tired Colorado and a useless Edmonton?

Easy to say this after the game is over.

CoZalon · 11-26-10, 12:28 AM

Originally posted by DennisGreen

Easy to say this after the game is over.

I dont know anything but I had under, so I am allowed to say that

Whatever useless game, tomorrow will be great, one could watch hockey for 12 hours

the_situation · 11-26-10, 12:55 AM

Wow, another bad beat...the Over was the right play, don't flatter yourself there. Amazing how when you bet 1P, only game total cashes and vice versa. Better luck tmr.

DennisGreen · 11-26-10, 02:00 AM

Happy Black Friday All!!! Hope you cashed out all your stocks last night

Attached Files

CoZalon · 11-26-10, 02:56 AM

Originally posted by DennisGreen

Happy Black Friday All!!! Hope you cashed out all your stocks last night

Whats a black friday

? From Sweden, dont expect me to know shit about rest of the world (exactly like people from America

)

decado · 11-26-10, 03:04 AM

Originally posted by CoZalon

Whats a black friday

? From Sweden, dont expect me to know shit about rest of the world (exactly like people from America

)

basically this

:

Black Friday is the day following Thanksgiving Day in the United States, traditionally the beginning of the Christmas shopping season. On this day many U.S. retailers open very early, often at 5 a.m., and offer promotional sales to kick off the shopping season.

CoZalon · 11-26-10, 03:12 AM

Originally posted by decado

basically this

:

I see, a zombie-invasion. Seems rough.

Maxi_EV · 11-26-10, 04:36 AM

29.72 units to recover

line 1: 2.63 - 2.63 - 2.63 - 2.63
line 2: 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6
line 3: 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6
line 4: 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6 - 1.6

King Mayan · 11-26-10, 04:48 AM

DG I predict your going to win 70%+ of the games tommorrow....Good Luck!!!

Prey · 11-26-10, 05:43 AM

Originally posted by keyboarding

An all in play on one of the worst teams in hockey?

Islanders aint shit. I see them possibly breaking their losing streak against Rangers, but not here. Always glad to be on the other side of an 0-14 ML team. Especially with this price. It's a winner!

CoZalon · 11-26-10, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by Prey

Islanders aint shit. I see them possibly breaking their losing streak against Rangers, but not here. Always glad to be on the other side of an 0-14 ML team. Especially with this price. It's a winner!

That could be a really interesting game actually ^^... Im thinking Over 5,5 and Islanders