I try to remain more disciplined and make sure I'm seeing the games clearly to give best probability of winning picks. That's not the case every day! Discipline approach is one of the most important factors in all of this.
Loss. Thought it would be good. There were 2-3 strange results in last night's games. This one, also Ottawa on the road beat Vegas 5-4.
Let's take a moment to examine lessons learned from the Friday night game in Calgary. I don't care if anyone reads this, documenting it for myself:
Calgary is not a "great top tier" team. They are also immature. On paper the Flames look exciting, but play inconsistent.
32-25-9 overall after Friday's home game (the "-9" are OT/Shootout losses)
14-15-4 home
18-10-5 road
Ok look back to Wed. Feb.28 game at Colorado. Calgary got 2-0 lead early in the second period. Then let the Avs score 4 goals (one power play goal) in the second period, while taking a bunch of penalties. Avs won 5-2 as Calgary never scored again. They appeared frustrated on the ice. The coach acknowledged it after the game.
With the Regular Season coming to an end soon (about 18 games remaining), Calgary is battling for a Wildcard playoff spot, all bunched-up with Minnesota, Dallas, Colorado, St.Louis, Los Angeles, Anaheim. They must win and must turn-around their poor performance on home ice this season.
In come the NY Rangers (29-30-6) literally last-place in the Metropolitan division, who played the night before in Vancouver and won in a game that went to Overtime, a bit of a marathon 6-5 win, in which goalie Henrik Lundqvist faced 55 shots.
It was looking like NY Rangers had gone into "tanking" mode, losing the previous 7-games in a row, trading away a couple key players at the trade deadline which was preceded by a letter to the fans by the owner/management. They called-up several players and as a result, appeared to have a weak team, especially at the defense positions.
So on a back-to-back in Calgary on Friday night, which was King Henrik Lundqvist's 36th birthday, he absolutely rose to the occasion for the second-night in a row, stopping 50 of 51 shots in a 3-1 win over Calgary. The Flames had 19-shots in the first period alone, which ended with a 1-1 score after the Rangers took an early lead with the game's opening goal. This undoubtedly frustrated the Flames again, as they had been on Wednesday night in Colorado. Instead of rising above and using it as motivation, Calgary once again broke-down, played terrible defense while only focusing on offense and letting the visitors score on undisciplined defensive coverage.
In conclusion, the lesson learned is not to trust a team which has shown inconsistency, inability to win at home, and undisciplined gameplay including taking dumb penalties in must-win situations, as Calgary was guilty of in this game and the previous one.
EDMONTON -0.5 -115 regulation win // 1.15 units to win 1
basically a follow-thru fade of the NY Rangers. Back-to-back road game for them again a big underdog. Henrik Lundqvist is not scheduled to play, it will be call-up goalie Alexandar Georgiev. Just one unit play this time.
-3.57 CALGARY -0.5 regulation ----> 3-1 home loss vs NYR
-2.00 CALGARY -1.5 puckline ------------------ +3.20 CHICAGO +160 regulation only ML ----> score 5-3 road win at LAK
-1.15 EDMONTON -0.5 regulation ----> score 3-2 home loss vs NYR
------------------ March 2&3 = -3.52 units (W/L = 1-3)
OVERALL THREAD: +25.81 units (W/L = 95-94-7 overall = .502 pct)
LAST 10 PICKS: +9.69 units (W/L = 6-3-1 Last ten = .667 pct)
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just more garbage from a western Canada team. Nothing against the country, but truth is you got Oilers, Flames, and Canucks stinking it up out there in the hockey world. Oilers got out-worked and shoulda had 4-5 goals against this particular rookie goalie AND defensemen they faced, but they didn't try hard enough until too late in the game, still couldn't score, and took dumbazz penalties just like Calgary did the night before.
will post picks one at a time today as I go through the schedule. Anticipate some volume today.....which usually not a good idea.....but I see some +plus odds opportunities here today......
COLORADO +128 includes overtime // 1 unit to win 1.28
COLORADO +327 -1.5 alternate puckline // 1 unit to win 3.27
COLORADO +200 -0.5 regulation win // 1 unit to win 2
Nashville beat Colorado twice so far this year (4-1 score Oct.17, and 5-2 score Nov.18, both games in Nashville). Predators lead the Central Division of the Western Conference right now, while Colorado sits fifth place in the division. The teams play today and again on Friday March 16 in Denver.
To say Colorado "must" beat Nashville today is not quite right, but they are playing well on a current 3-game home winning streak and undoubtedly have motivation to win against the division leaders who have had their number so far. When they met earlier in the year, Colorado was not playing nearly as good as they have been in the second-half of the season. Remember they reeled-off a 10-game winning streak from Dec.29 to Jan.22
Nashville is on a current 7-game winning streak, which is their longest of the season. Today is the 4th game in 6 days for the Preds. Its game 17 for them since Feb.1.
Colorado has played one-less game since Feb.1 and today is only game 4 this week for them. I like the home team in this spot.
FLORIDA -145 regulation only moneyline // 1 unit to win 0.69
*push if game goes to overtime
Philadelphia is on a back-to-back after losing to Tampa 7-6 in a shootout yesterday, in which they blew a 3-1 lead after the first period. They are a team which goes to Overtime at a high rate, with 21 OT games already on the season. Flyers currently have 79 points in the standings, good for 2nd place in the Metropolitan Division of the Eastern Conference, sandwiched between Washington and Pittsburgh.
The home team Florida Panthers are fighting for a Wildcard spot and have been a team gaining momentum with a current 5-game winning streak since Feb.22, all home wins. Panthers only have played 11 OT games so far on the season.
These teams split the 2 previous meetings this season without going to overtime. Today is the rubber match. I like the game seeing Overtime, but want to use the regulation only moneyline on the home team to hedge a little.
ANAHEIM -0.5 -110 regulation win // 3.30 units to win 3
Let's not overthink this game. Chicago is out of the playoff race with 64 points last in the Central Division of the Western Conference. Anaheim is battling for third place in the Pacific Division with 76 point and/or a Wildcard spot.
The teams split the previous matches this season. With this being the rubber match, go with the better team, and at home today. Anaheim is weak this year in Overtime games, so as a heavy favorite today, we risk the -110 as the price for the Ducks to win in regulation.
Today is game 16 for the Blackhawks since Feb.1 Also their third game going back to Thursday night. Anaheim has played one-less game on the month, and this is only their second game since last Sunday, with a 4-2 home win over Columbus on Friday night.
Sunday March 4 - late game 9:00 eastern
COLUMBUS +134 // 1 unit to win 1.34
So far today a bunch of action in three games picked, and down -0.31 units. Colorado was a near-miss.
I don't want to do a write-up but Columbus lost both games of their California road-trip so far. Contrast with San Jose who rolled their opponents in the past two home games. I'm just going against the trends and feel the Blue Jackets gotta get this win.
-1.00 COLORADO ML ----> 4-3 home overtime loss vs NSH
-1.00 COLORADO -1.5 alternate puckline -1.00 COLORADO -0.5 regulation -1.00 OVERTIME PHI@FLA +0.69 FLORIDA regulation only ML ----> score 4-1 home win vs PHI +3.00 ANAHEIM -0.5 regulation win ----> score 6-3 home win vs CHI +1.34 COLUMBUS ML ----> score 4-2 road win at SJ
------------------ March 4 = +1.03 units (W/L = 3-4)
OVERALL THREAD: +26.84 units (W/L = 98-98-7 overall = .500 pct)
LAST 10 PICKS: +1.08 units (W/L = 4-6 Last ten = .400 pct)
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Colorado blowing the lead with 1:06 remaining turned a big day into a blah
Wrong team favored in Vancouver tonight. Arizona lost at home 3-1 to this Canucks team on Feb.25
Arizona is last in the division but are playing to win games. 8-2-2 in their last 10, including a 4-3 overtime loss at Edmonton on Monday.
Canucks actually won't be the same team tonight because their rookie star right winger Brock Boeser got injured and is out for the rest of the season...
Just like I will be out for the rest of March if this don't win!!! I get less than 60 days off because this is +135 odds !!
Monday March 5 -1.12 TORONTO -0.5 regulation ----> 5-3 road loss at BUF
-1.25 DALLAS -0.5 regulation ----> 3-2 home Overtime loss vs OTT -1.00 VANCOUVER -0.5 regulation ----> 4-3 home Overtime win vs NYI ------------------ Tuesday March 6 +1.00 NEW JERSEY regulation only ML ----> score 6-4 home win vs MTL +1.80 WINNIPEG -1.5 +180 puckline ----> score 3-0 road win at NYR
+2.10 WINNIPEG -0.5 regulation -1.17 VEGAS regulation only ML ----> score 4-1 road loss at CBJ +1.00 NASHVILLE -0.5 regulation ----> score 2-0 home win vs DAL -2.00 CAROLINA ML ----> score 6-2 road loss at MINN ------------------ Wednesday March 7 +6.75 ARIZONA ML ----> score 2-1 road win at VANC ------------------ March 5,6,7 = +6.11 units (W/L = 5-5)
OVERALL THREAD: +32.95 units (W/L = 103-103-7 overall = .500 pct)
LAST 10 PICKS: +6.11 units (W/L = 5-5 Last ten = .500 pct)
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really like this game to go to Overtime. Both teams need points. Its not a sure thing, kinda a sucker prop bet, and the only other time earlier this season I risked the 2 units on Overtime, it lost. Been running good so taking a chance here.
Thursday March 8 +4.00 CAROLINA regulation only ML ----> score 3-2 regulation road win at CHI +1.10 TAMPA -1.5 +110 puckline ----> score 5-3 home win vs NYR
+1.00 FLORIDA -0.5 regulation ---> 5-0 home win vs MTL -1.00 NY ISLANDERS -0.5 regulation ----> 3-2 road sHOOTOUT loss at EDM +2.00 UNDER 6 -115 WPG@NJ ----> score 3-2 WPG road win at NJ -1.00 OVERTIME WPG@NJ -2.00 OVERTIME WSH@LAK ----> score 3-1 LAK home win vs WSH ------------------ Saturday March 10 -0.50 CHICAGO -0.5 regulation ----> 7-4 road loss at BOS -0.50 CHICAGO -1.5 +485 alternate puckline +1.00 PHILADELPHIA regulation only ML ----> score 2-1 home win vs WPG -1.00 OVERTIME WPG@PHI +2.00 COLORADO -0.5 regulation ----> score 5-2 home win vs ARIZ +5.80 ST. LOUIS ML ----> score 7-2 road win at LAK +5.00 ST. LOUIS first period only ML ---> score 2-0 STL after first period
+8.00 ST. LOUIS -1.5 +400 alternate puckline ------------------ March 8,10 = +23.90 units (W/L = 9-6)
OVERALL THREAD: +56.85 units (W/L = 112-109-7 overall = .506 pct)
LAST 25 PICKS: +30.01 units (W/L = 14-11 Last 25 picks = .560 pct)
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Expanded the Last 25 picks (instead of Last 10 picks) because been playing more volume.
-2.00 CAROLINA ML ----> 6-3 road loss at NYR +2.95 OVERTIME WPG@WSH ----> score 2-2 end of regulation +1.00 WASHINGTON ML ----> score 3-2 home Overtime win vs WPG ------------------ March 12 = +1.95 units (W/L = 2-1)
LAST 25 PICKS: +35.33 units (W/L = 16-9 Last 25 picks = .640 pct)
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Expanded the Last 25 picks (instead of Last 10 picks) because been playing more volume.
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