Dogs and Pucklines

[fjordo]

As everybody knows, or should know, betting on the + odds can, and will be more profitable in the long run, if played properly.

With the amount of 2 goal games this year, and the unpredictability of teams, before the Olympic break, I tossed the idea around of betting on both the 'dog', and the ''favourite' puckline', both + odds. Would this be profitable?

I am not placing wagers, but keeping track, and will continue to do so for the time being, so if interested, check back from time to time.

On a small sample size so far, only the three days before the break, the 'dogs' have taken 12 games, 52%, and the 'favs' have won 7, by 2 or more, 30%, which means only 4 out of 23 games were won by the fav by only 1 goal, 17%.

Using a sample wager of $20 for each bet, I would be up $85.20 after 3 nights.

I am going to keep an eye on the Over/Under + bet as well. I will keep track of all of the above, and try to update daily if possible.

So far:

Dogs: 12-11 +$121.80
Favs -1.5: 7-16 -$36.60
Totals: 0-0 $0

[fjordo]

Tonight I would be taking, Det @ +111, Col -1.5 @ +254, and over 5.5 @ +122, risking $20 each.

PS. Please do not follow, this is just a test, but feel free to voice your opinions on the matter.

[cecil127]

love it.

[vmchockey]

I love it to.

[Flight]

If you got Detroit at +111, you are in good shape already. (much better than the -115 currently offered)

[Jive]

Interesting idea. If my calculations are correct, over the last 218 games (dating back to January 15) there have been 63 times where the favorite has won by exactly one goal. This means you would have made money on 71.1% of the games. I don't know how profitable it would have been, though. Keep up the testing! I am interested to see how this works with money on the line.

[fjordo]

If you got Detroit at +111, you are in good shape already. (much better than the -115 currently offered)

Ya, I work nights, so I get my lines early in the day when I get home. Sometimes, like this, it's beneficial, but not all the time. Also because of this, there will be days like today, where some games don't have lines out yet, and I will not play them. If this is the case, anyone can feel free to post the odds of the dog, fav -1.5, and the over/under 'dog', when the lines come out. Keep in mind, if there is no clear dog, meaning no + bet, there is no play.

This means you would have made money on 71.1% of the games. I don't know how profitable it would have been, though.

Thanks for the info, and thats exactly what I'm trying to figure out, just how profitable, if at all, this would be. The only thing is, when you do lose on those 29% of the games, not only are you losing 1, but 2 bets.

[fjordo]

Det @ +111 Win $22.20
Col -1.5 @ +254 Loss -$20.00
------------------------------
+$2.20

Dogs: 13-11 +$144.00
Favs -1.5: 7-17 -$56.60
Total: 20-28 +$87.40

Because the over/unders is not my main focus here, and I don't have the time, I am going to omit them and stick to the dogs and pucklines. If anyone would like to keep track of these in this thread, or on their own, and update occasionally, that would be great, as I am curious how often the + side of the totals hit.

[fjordo]

Tonights plays would be as follows:

MTL @ +155
BOS -1.5 @ +183

CAR @ +113
TOR -1.5 @ +242

FLA @ +131
ATL -1.5 @ +206

NYI @ +177
CHI -1.5 @ +156

TB @ +115
PHI -1.5 @ +236

NYR @ +145
OTT -1.5 @ +189

EDM @ +225
NAS -1.5 @ +124

LA @ +109
DAL -1.5 @ +254

STL @ +123
PHX -1.5 @ +225

NJ @ +132
SJ -1.5 @ +221

VAN @ +107
CLB -1.5 @ +249

BUF @ +165
PIT -1.5 @ +166

[Vindicate]

interesting...i will check back for results. Good luck

[POD Squad]

ok listen fjordo..I do see how u made $2.20 by betting $40.00 altogether. If u would have just bet on Det to win as underdog, u would have made enuff profit...Now i do see that u tried to play safe in order to make some money instead of losing money...
My concern, with this style of betting is that, what if your underdog doesn't come through and the favorite team doesn't cover the spread (meaning favorite wins by 1 goal)..see in that scenario u lose all your bets...your underdog and your puckline..
I suggest u to play either underdog or puckline...instead of betting on both.., don't take this offensively, this is jst a suggestion.

anyways.. I am still studying all the game..and when im done..i'll come bak to your thread to post my POD..and parleys!

Good luck!

[TheCommish]

ok listen fjordo..I do see how u made $2.20 by betting $40.00 altogether. If u would have just bet on Det to win as underdog, u would have made enuff profit...Now i do see that u tried to play safe in order to make some money instead of losing money...
My concern, with this style of betting is that, what if your underdog doesn't come through and the favorite team doesn't cover the spread (meaning favorite wins by 1 goal)..see in that scenario u lose all your bets...your underdog and your puckline..
I suggest u to play either underdog or puckline...instead of betting on both.., don't take this offensively, this is jst a suggestion.

anyways.. I am still studying all the game..and when im done..i'll come bak to your thread to post my POD..and parleys!

Good luck!

Someone either didn't read, or undersand, the basis of this thread.

Oh, and some advice for you in return, parlays and 'parleys!' are both bad ideas

[POD Squad]

Someone either didn't read, or undersand, the basis of this thread.

Oh, and some advice for you in return, parlays and 'parleys!' are both bad ideas

yes Commish, its good that u noticed i said parleys..go look it up wat it means...

and Parlays are bad for those who don't knw how to play..and for those who do, its alot more profitable than this stupid idea of betting on both the underdog and the puckline..
any ways..good luck to u all!

[Flight]

POD Squad, you came to the conclusion that he will lose both bets if the favorite wins by exactly one goal. That is exactly correct and is exactly what the original poster is doing. He is playing a "reverse middle" where he wins on all outcomes except one.

In terms of the game of hockey, he is betting that favorites will either cover the -1.5 spread or lose outright. His position is helped out because team's losing by one goal will generally pull their goalie, and if the favorite is really the better team they can often get an extra goal in.

I like the idea of the reverse middle here, but it will need to be played carefully. Any blind system is subject to noise. Additionally, short term variance means a system can look wonderful but in the long run is still a 50% system. Hopefully the OP is able to tune and filter this system to become profitable.

[vmchockey]

So far you have only lost on 1 play, ya?

[fjordo]

MTL @ +155 Win $31.00
BOS -1.5 @ +183 Loss -$20.00
+11.00
CAR @ +113 Win $22.60
TOR -1.5 @ +242 Loss -$20.00
+2.60
FLA @ +131 Loss -$20.00
ATL -1.5 @ +206 Win $41.20
+21.20
NYI @ +177 Win $35.40
CHI -1.5 @ +156 Loss -$20.00
+15.40
TB @ +115 Loss -$20.00
PHI -1.5 @ +236 Win $47.20
+27.20
NYR @ +145 Win $29.00
OTT -1.5 @ +189 Loss -$20.00
+9.00
EDM @ +225 Loss -$20.00
NAS -1.5 @ +124 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
LA @ +109 Win $21.80
DAL -1.5 @ +254 Loss -$20.00
+1.80
STL @ +123 Win $24.60
PHX -1.5 @ +225 Loss -$20.00
+4.60
NJ @ +132 Win $26.40
SJ -1.5 @ +221 Loss -$20.00
+6.40
VAN @ +107 Win $21.40
CLB -1.5 @ +249 Loss -$20.00
+1.40
BUF @ +165 Loss -$20.00
PIT -1.5 @ +166 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
---------------------------
+$20.60

Dogs: 21-15 +$276.20
Favs -1.5: 9-27 -$168.20
Total: 30-42 +$108.00

[fjordo]

So far you have only lost on 1 play, ya?

After last night there have been 6 losing plays. The overall record thus far is 30-42, which means 12 lost bets, but because there are 2 bets on each play, there have been 6 losses.

[fjordo]

Lets see if the dogs are barking again tonight.

Tonights plays would be as follows:

BUF @ +126
WAS -1.5 @ +213

FLA @ +129
PHI -1.5 @ +214

VAN @ +135
DET -1.5 @ +206

EDM @ +332
EDM +1.5 @ +115 *This is an interesting one as the puckline + bet is with the dog. Don't know that I've seen this before. Do I count this towards the Favourite puckline record, or just make the dog ML bet? What do you guys think?

MIN @ +130
CAL -1.5 @ +213

COL @ +117
ANA -1.5 @ +236

[fjordo]

BUF @ +126 Loss -$20.00
WAS -1.5 @ +213 Win +$42.60
+22.60
FLA @ +129 Win +$25.80
PHI -1.5 @ +214 Loss -$20.00
+5.80
VAN @ +135 Win +$27.00
DET -1.5 @ +206 Loss -$20.00
+7.00
EDM @ +332 Loss -$20.00
EDM +1.5 @ +115 *This is an interesting one as the puckline + bet is with the dog. Don't know that I've seen this before. Do I count this towards the Favourite puckline record, or just make the dog ML bet? What do you guys think?
-20.00
MIN @ +130 Win +$26.00
CAL -1.5 @ +213 Loss -$20.00
+6.00
COL @ +117 Win +$23.40
ANA -1.5 @ +236 Loss -$20.00
+3.40
--------------
+24.80

Dogs: 25-17 +$338.40
Favs -1.5: 10-31 -$205.60
Total: 35-48 +$132.80

[fjordo]

Tonights plays would be as follows:

NYI @ +129
ATL -1.5 @ +209

NYR @ +126
PIT -1.5 @ +222

TOR @ +169
BOS -1.5 @ +164

TB @ +238
WAS -1.5 @ +105

LA @ +105
NAS -1.5 @ +260

STL @ +111
DAL -1.5 @ +250

COL @ +141
PHX -1.5 @ +196

MTL @ +206
SJ -1.5 @ +136

CAR -1.5 @ +280

[bringdownthehous]

this system looks very legit..if it keeps holdin up I say we lay down some dough...good work man

[vmchockey]

No kidding, it'll break one night though and you'll be down 60 or 70$ (half your winnings in a week) in one bad night.

[fjordo]

it'll break one night though and you'll be down 60 or 70$ (half your winnings in a week) in one bad night.

Totally agree with you, and knew this from the start, hence the placebo bets to see if those nights will outweigh the winning nights. Almost had one of those nights last night. Sure, it was a losing night, but wasn't devestating. This is why I say "Do not follow" though. I know the risk involved with this 'system', just curious as to the profit or loss in the longrun.

[fjordo]

Tonights plays would be as follows:

NYI @ +129 Loss - $20.00
ATL -1.5 @ +209 Win + $41.80
+21.80
NYR @ +126 Loss - $20.00
PIT -1.5 @ +222 Loss - $20.00
-40.00
TOR @ +169 Loss - $20.00
BOS -1.5 @ +164 Loss - $20.00
-40.00
TB @ +238 Loss - $20.00
WAS -1.5 @ +105 Loss - $20.00
-40.00
LA @ +105 Loss - $20.00
NAS -1.5 @ +260 Win + $52.00
+32.00
STL @ +111 Win + $22.20
DAL -1.5 @ +250 Loss - $20.00
+2.20
COL @ +141 Loss - $20.00
PHX -1.5 @ +196 Win + $39.20
+19.20
MTL @ +206 Loss - $20.00
SJ -1.5 @ +136 Loss - $20.00
-40.00
CAR -1.5 @ +280 Win + $56.00
+56.00
----------------------
-28.80

Dogs: 26-24 +$220.60
Favs -1.5: 14-36 -$116.60
Total: 40-60 +$104.00

[fjordo]

Tonights plays would be as follows:

PHI @ +108
BUF -1.5 @ +255

NAS @ +176
DET -1.5 @ +156

VAN @ +136
CHI -1.5 @ +200

EDM @ +166
MIN -1.5 @ +161

CAL @ +100
NJ -1.5 @ +285

[Jive]

Keep it up, friend!

[fjordo]

Tonights plays would be as follows:

PHI @ +108 loss
BUF -1.5 @ +255 loss
-40.00
NAS @ +176 loss
DET -1.5 @ +156 win
+11.20
VAN @ +136 loss
CHI -1.5 @ +200 win
+20.00
EDM @ +166 win
MIN -1.5 @ +161 loss
+13.20
CAL @ +100 win
NJ -1.5 @ +285 loss
+0.00
------------------
+4.40

Dogs: 28-27 +$213.80
Favs -1.5: 16-39 -$105.40
Total: 44-66 +$108.40

[fjordo]

Tonights plays would be as follows:

DAL @ +197
PIT -1.5 @ +137

NYI @ +123
BOS -1.5 @ +232

TOR @ +176
OTT -1.5 @ +153

ATL @ +118
TB -1.5 @ +226

ANA @ +124
PHX -1.5 @ +236

STL @ +115
COL -1.5 @ +241

MTL @ +165
LA -1.5 @ +165

CLB @ +221
SJ -1.5 @ +118

FLA -1.5 @ +254

NYR @ +228
WAS -1.5 @ + 118

[HOT WINGS]

Interesting thread fjordo. Keep up the good work it will be interesting to see end results.

[neuraxis]

i was wondering if we play all the time all the dogs could we get money from that. it seems like you have the answer ^_^

[fjordo]

Tonights plays would be as follows:

DAL @ +197 Loss - $20.00
PIT -1.5 @ +137 Win + $27.40
+7.40
NYI @ +123 Loss - $20.00
BOS -1.5 @ +232 Loss - $20.00
-40.00
TOR @ +176 Win + $35.20
OTT -1.5 @ +153 Loss - $20.00
+15.20
ATL @ +118 Loss - $20.00
TB -1.5 @ +226 Win + $45.20
+25.20
ANA @ +124 Loss - $20.00
PHX -1.5 @ +236 Win + $47.20
+27.20
STL @ +115 Loss - $20.00
COL -1.5 @ +241 Win + $48.20
+28.20
MTL @ +165 Win + $33.00
LA -1.5 @ +165 Loss - $20.00
+13.00
CLB @ +221 Loss - $20.00
SJ -1.5 @ +118 Loss - $20.00
-40.00
FLA -1.5 @ +254 Win + $50.80
+50.80
NYR @ +228 Loss - $20.00
WAS -1.5 @ + 118 Win + $23.60
+3.60
------------------------------
+90.60

Dogs: 30-34 +$142.00
Favs -1.5: 22-43 +$57.00
Total: 52-77 +$199.00

[fjordo]

Det @ +147
chi -1.5 @ +182

nas @ +122
van -1.5 @ +222

cal @ +115
min -1.5 @ +242

bos @ +165
pit -1.5 @ +165

car @ +114
atl -1.5 @ +240

nyr @ +101
nyr -1.5 @ +291

tor @ +219
phi -1.5 @ +124

edm @ +197
nj -1.5 @ +141

mtl @ +149
ana -1.5 @ + 180

[vmchockey]

Have you started actually putting money on this yet?

[fjordo]

Det @ +147 Win + $29.40
chi -1.5 @ +182 Loss - $20.00
+9.40
nas @ +122 Loss - $20.00
van -1.5 @ +222 Win + $44.40
+24.40
cal @ +115 Win + $23.00
min -1.5 @ +242 Loss - $20.00
+3.00
bos @ +165 Loss - $20.00
pit -1.5 @ +165 Loss - $20.00
-40.00
car @ +114 Win + $22.80
atl -1.5 @ +240 Loss - $20.00
+2.80
nyr @ +101 Loss - $20.00
nyr -1.5 @ +291 Loss - $20.00
-40.00
tor @ +219 Loss - $20.00
phi -1.5 @ +124 Win + $24.80
+4.80
edm @ +197 Win + $39.40
nj -1.5 @ +141 Loss - $20.00
+19.40
mtl @ +149 Win + $29.80
ana -1.5 @ + 180 Loss - $20.00
+9.80
-------------------
-12.00

Dogs: 35-38 +$206.40
Favs -1.5: 24-50 -$13.80
Total: 59-88 +$187.00

[fjordo]

Tonights plays would be as follows:

DAL @ +251
WAS -1.5 @ +102

CLB @ +165
LA -1.5 @ +168