Dogs and Pucklines

fjordo · 03-16-10, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by cecil127

not sure what you mean fjordo. there are 11 games tonight and you have 12 games listed . at the point where my head was just about to explode i noticed you have dal/sj twice. i think you got them all-gl

Just fixed it, there are now 11 games tonight, not 12, lol.

Cecil, what I mean is, I know what the games are, but there are no odds yet for the game. Because I work nights, sometimes I'm not up to make wagers right before the games, so I do this in the morning when I get home. This means that sometimes the odds are not released yet on certain games, and when this happens, I will include the game, but not have the odds. If you are ever looking through the list and see anything with NL (no line), instead of a +186, and you see odds on that game sometime in the day, Please just post them here, and I can edit it into the picks when I have a chance. If we miss some games, than maybe we won't be as accurate with our findings. Luckily the gf woke me today when she came home for lunch, so I found odds and inserted them in for tonights plays.
Anyways, back to bed, and BOL to everyone on any plays they make tonight!

cecil127 · 03-16-10, 02:16 PM

yea, i gotchya but didnt see any NL posted next to any games-then saw nothing to indicate you edited your post with the lines, then figured you didnt list the game because there were no lines-so i counted the games and found 11. counted your list and there were 12

s'all good.

fjordo · 03-17-10, 07:17 AM

Originally posted by fjordo

BOS @ +117 Win +$23.40
CAR -1.5 @ +228 Loss -$20.00
+3.40
ATL @ +129 Win +$25.80
BUF -1.5 @ +208 Loss -$20.00
+5.80
MTL @ +129 Win +$25.80
NYR -1.5 @ +220 Loss -$20.00
+5.80
TOR @ +159 Win +$31.80
OTT -1.5 @ +169 Loss -$20.00
+11.80
TB @ +113 Loss -$20.00
PHX -1.5 @ +248 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
EDM @ +243 Loss -$20.00
MIN -1.5 @ +115 Win +$23.00
+3.00
FLA @ +147 Loss -$20.00
WAS -1.5 @ +184 Win +$36.80
+16.80
COL @ +133 Win +$26.60
STL -1.5 @ +212 Loss -$20.00
+6.60
PHI @ +103 Loss -$20.00
NAS -1.5 @ +266 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
DAL @ +150 Win +$30.00
SJ -1.5 @ +185 Loss -$20.00
+10.00
NYI @ +238 Win +$47.60
VAN -1.5 @ +114 Loss -$20.00
+27.60
--------------
+10.80

Dogs: 60-74 +$255.80
Favs -1.5: 46-91 +$35.20
Total: 106-165 +$291.00

fjordo · 03-17-10, 08:28 AM

Wednesdays plays would be as follows:

PIT @ +125
NJ -1.5 @ +223

CAL @ +100
COL -1.5 @ +255

ANA @ +131
CHI -1.5 @ +211

Dogs: 60-74 +$255.80
Favs -1.5: 46-91 +$35.20
Total: 106-165 +$291.00

fjordo · 03-18-10, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by fjordo

PIT @ +125 Loss -$20.00
NJ -1.5 @ +223 Win +$44.60
+24.60
CAL @ +100 Win +$20.00
COL -1.5 @ +255 Loss -$20.00
+0.00
ANA @ +131 Win +$26.20
CHI -1.5 @ +211 Loss -$20.00
+6.20
--------------
30.80

Dogs: 62-75 +$282.00
Favs -1.5: 47-93 +$39.80
Total: 109-168 +$321.80

fjordo · 03-18-10, 08:59 AM

Thursdays plays would be: 2 games with no lines

STL @ +114
NYR -1.5 @ +241

BOS @ +NL
PIT -1.5 @ +NL

ATL @ +103
OTT -1.5 @ +249

CAR @ +131
WAS -1.5 @ +197

TB @ +114
BUF -1.5 @ +249

TOR @ +111
NJ -1.5 @ +249

FLA @ +125
PHX -1.5 @ +232

DAL @ +102
PHI -1.5 @ +251

SJ @ +128
VAN -1.5 @ +225

CHI @ +106
LA -1.5 @ +264

MIN @ +NL
NAS -1.5 @ +NL

Dogs: 62-75 +$282.00
Favs -1.5: 47-93 +$39.80
Total: 109-168 +$321.80

Toronto Fc · 03-18-10, 09:17 AM

Great thread boss.

cecil127 · 03-18-10, 10:02 AM

MIN @ +144
NAS -1.5 @ +190

PIT @ +120
BOS -1.5 @ +239

pinny odds at time of edit.

fjordo · 03-18-10, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by cecil127

MIN @ +144
NAS -1.5 @ +190

PIT @ +120
BOS -1.5 @ +239

pinny odds at time of edit.

Thanks Cecil, pinnacle is actually where I get all the lines from, not sure if I've mentioned that before. Anyways, here are the plays for tonight than in their entirety

STL @ +114
NYR -1.5 @ +241

PIT @ +120
BOS -1.5 @ +239

ATL @ +103
OTT -1.5 @ +249

CAR @ +131
WAS -1.5 @ +197

TB @ +114
BUF -1.5 @ +249

TOR @ +111
NJ -1.5 @ +249

FLA @ +125
PHX -1.5 @ +232

DAL @ +102
PHI -1.5 @ +251

SJ @ +128
VAN -1.5 @ +225

CHI @ +106
LA -1.5 @ +264

MIN @ +144
NAS -1.5 @ +190

Dogs: 62-75 +$282.00
Favs -1.5: 47-93 +$39.80
Total: 109-168 +$321.80

DennisGreen · 03-18-10, 01:22 PM

Interesting system Fjordo but it looks like you are having success with it

Seems like this guarantees you profit on most nights.

do5000 · 03-18-10, 01:59 PM

fjordo,
i tried this a while ago with pinnacle. but using fav -1. it doesnt payout as well obviously, but it means worst case, you lose one bet and push one.

i never went back to it because i couldnt find out historical stats on % of games in the NHL that are won by the FAV by exactly one goal.
does anybody have that info?
i'm not great at math, so i dont know what the magic number is for profit.

i also looked into playing fav -1 and dog -1 using 5dimes. it results in more losses (normally a dog win by 1 would be a win, but in this case its a push) but the payouts on a dog -1 are in the area of +200, sometimes +250

fjordo · 03-19-10, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by fjordo

STL @ +114 Win +$22.80
NYR -1.5 @ +241 Loss -$20.00
+2.80
PIT @ +120 Win +$24.00
BOS -1.5 @ +239 Loss -$20.00
+4.00
ATL @ +103 Win +$20.60
OTT -1.5 @ +249 Loss -$20.00
+0.60
CAR @ +131 Win +$26.20
WAS -1.5 @ +197 Loss -$20.00
+6.20
TB @ +114 Loss -$20.00
BUF -1.5 @ +249 Win +$49.80
+29.80
TOR @ +111 Win +$22.20
NJ -1.5 @ +249 Loss -$20.00
+2.20
FLA @ +125 Loss -$20.00
PHX -1.5 @ +232 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
DAL @ +102 Loss -$20.00
PHI -1.5 @ +251 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
SJ @ +128 Loss -$20.00
VAN -1.5 @ +225 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
CHI @ +106 Win +$21.20
LA -1.5 @ +264 Loss -$20.00
+1.20
MIN @ +144 Loss -$20.00
NAS -1.5 @ +190 Win +$38.00
+18.00
--------------------------
-55.20

Dogs: 68-80 +$319.00
Favs -1.5: 49-102 -$52.40
Total: 117-182 +$266.60

fjordo · 03-19-10, 09:05 AM

Fridays plays would be:

MIN @ +135
CLB -1.5 @ +206

SJ @ +114
CAL -1.5 @ +247

EDM @ +219
DET -1.5 @ +127

NYI @ +153
ANA -1.5 @ +182

Dogs: 68-80 +$319.00
Favs -1.5: 49-102 -$52.40
Total: 117-182 +$266.60

fjordo · 03-20-10, 07:34 AM

I have a busy weekend, so I will post the plays, but won't update the record probably until Monday.

Saturdays plays would be:

CAR @ +201
PIT -1.5 @ +143

OTT @ +109
DAL -1.5 @ +267

ATL @ +115
PHI -1.5 @ +228

FLA @ +125
BUF -1.5 @ +222

TOR -1.5 @ +274

STL @ +149
NJ -1.5 @ +194

TB @ +181
WAS -1.5 @ +143

CLB @ +186
NAS -1.5 @ +150

CHI @ +111
PHX -1.5 @ +255

DET @ +134
VAN -1.5 @ +206

NYI @ +186
LA -1.5 @ +149

Dogs: 68-80 +$319.00
Favs -1.5: 49-102 -$52.40
Total: 117-182 +$266.60

Jive · 03-21-10, 12:41 AM

Call me nuts, but I'm jumping in with real money starting Sunday. I'll probably just do $1 bets and ($2 total each game) and maybe increase slightly throughout the playoffs. Right now I'm wondering if books will get pissy if you are betting both +lines of the same game and eventually kick you out. I'm thinking mostly about 5dimes, who seems to take umbrage to this kind of thing. I could split the bets up between multiple books and effectively hide it, but the lines for us Pinny-deprived Americans are almost always the best at 5dimes with the reduced juice, so I have half a mind to play them all there.

fjordo · 03-21-10, 10:08 AM

Originally posted by Jive

Call me nuts, but I'm jumping in with real money starting Sunday. I'll probably just do $1 bets and ($2 total each game) and maybe increase slightly throughout the playoffs. Right now I'm wondering if books will get pissy if you are betting both +lines of the same game and eventually kick you out. I'm thinking mostly about 5dimes, who seems to take umbrage to this kind of thing. I could split the bets up between multiple books and effectively hide it, but the lines for us Pinny-deprived Americans are almost always the best at 5dimes with the reduced juice, so I have half a mind to play them all there.

Good luck if you do play! Here would be tonights plays:

NYR @ +115
BOS -1.5 @ +240

CAL -1.5 @ +271

TB @ +122
FLA -1.5 @ +228

BUF @ +106
CAR -1.5 @ +255

NAS @ +115
STL -1.5 @ +236

DAL -1.5 @ +275

ATL @ +173
PHI -1.5 @ +160

EDM @ +209
SJ -1.5 @ +126

COL @ +110
ANA -1.5 @ +248

Dogs: 68-80 +$319.00
Favs -1.5: 49-102 -$52.40
Total: 117-182 +$266.60

Jempa · 03-21-10, 01:52 PM

I really hope this works out well for you Jive, really loving what I am seeing here.

I already flatbet dogs with my points, aren't going as great as for Fjordo, but atleast it keeps steady rising. Hopefully this thread stays steady and we can all jump on the system one day!

BOL

do5000 · 03-22-10, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by Jempa

I really hope this works out well for you Jive, really loving what I am seeing here.

I already flatbet dogs with my points, aren't going as great as for Fjordo, but atleast it keeps steady rising. Hopefully this thread stays steady and we can all jump on the system one day!

BOL

i agree 100%. im sure some filters will help in the future.
lets hope this continues.
works better here than in baseball since RL in baseball is normally only +150 while in hockey it usually over +200

fjordo · 03-22-10, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by fjordo

Fridays plays would be:

MIN @ +135 Loss -$20.00
CLB -1.5 @ +206 Win +$41.20
+21.20
SJ @ +114 Loss -$20.00
CAL -1.5 @ +247 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
EDM @ +219 Win +$43.80
DET -1.5 @ +127 Loss -$20.00
+23.80
NYI @ +153 Loss -$20.00
ANA -1.5 @ +182 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
----------------
-35.00

Dogs: 69-83 +$302.80
Favs -1.5: 50-105 -$71.20
Total: 119-188 +$231.60

fjordo · 03-22-10, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by fjordo

I have a busy weekend, so I will post the plays, but won't update the record probably until Monday.

Saturdays plays would be:

CAR @ +201 Win +$40.20
PIT -1.5 @ +143 Loss -$20.00
+20.20
OTT @ +109 Loss -$20.00
DAL -1.5 @ +267 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
ATL @ +115 Win +$23.00
PHI -1.5 @ +228 Loss -$20.00
+3.00
FLA @ +125 Loss -$20.00
BUF -1.5 @ +222 Win +$44.40
+24.40
TOR -1.5 @ +274 Loss -$20.00
-20.00
STL @ +149 Win +$29.80
NJ -1.5 @ +194 Loss -$20.00
+9.80
TB @ +181 Loss -$20.00
WAS -1.5 @ +143 Win +$28.60
+8.60
CLB @ +186 Loss -$20.00
NAS -1.5 @ +150 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
CHI @ +111 Loss -$20.00
PHX -1.5 @ +255 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
DET @ +134 Win +$26.80
VAN -1.5 @ +206 Loss -$20.00
+6.80
NYI @ +186 Loss -$20.00
LA -1.5 @ +149 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
---------------
-107.20

Dogs: 73-87 +$318.80
Favs -1.5: 52-114 -$159.40
Total: 125-203 +$159.40

fjordo · 03-22-10, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by fjordo

Sunday:

NYR @ +115 Loss -$20.00
BOS -1.5 @ +240 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
CAL -1.5 @ +271 Loss -$20.00
-20.00
TB @ +122 Loss -$20.00
FLA -1.5 @ +228 Win +$45.60
+25.60
BUF @ +106 Win +$21.20
CAR -1.5 @ +255 Loss -$20.00
+1.20
NAS @ +115 Win +$23.00
STL -1.5 @ +236 Loss -$20.00
+3.00
DAL -1.5 @ +275 Loss -$20.00
-20.00
ATL @ +173 Win +$34.60
PHI -1.5 @ +160 Loss -$20.00
+14.60
EDM @ +209 Win +41.80
SJ -1.5 @ +126 Loss -$20.00
+21.80
COL @ +110 Loss -$20.00
ANA -1.5 @ +248 Win +$49.60
+29.60
--------------
+15.80

Dogs: 77-90 +$379.40
Favs -1.5: 54-121 -$204.20
Total: 131-213 +$175.20

fjordo · 03-22-10, 12:44 PM

Mondays plays would be:

PIT @ +123
DET -1.5 @ +223

OTT @ +125
MTL -1.5 @ +224

COL @ +138
LA -1.5 @ +200

Dogs: 77-90 +$379.40
Favs -1.5: 54-121 -$204.20
Total: 131-213 +$175.20

Toronto Fc · 03-22-10, 05:04 PM

I had a discussion about this strategy at another forum with IrishTim who is one of the best #'s guys on the forums. The bottom line is you are laying the equivalent -350 to -400 on each of these games. At those odds you need to hit 77% to 80% of the time to be a long term winner. I think the number that was quoted in this thread was that the faves win by 1 - 27% of the time so overall this should be a losing proposition. If you can figure out the exact number of times that faves win by one and it is less then 20%, you will be a long term winner using this strategy.

fjordo · 03-22-10, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by Toronto Fc

I had a discussion about this strategy at another forum with IrishTim who is one of the best #'s guys on the forums. The bottom line is you are laying the equivalent -350 to -400 on each of these games. At those odds you need to hit 77% to 80% of the time to be a long term winner. I think the number that was quoted in this thread was that the faves win by 1 - 27% of the time so overall this should be a losing proposition. If you can figure out the exact number of times that faves win by one and it is less then 20%, you will be a long term winner using this strategy.

Thanks FC. Good insight there. Things seem to be evening out right now with a few not so good nights, so you could be right there. I plan on keeping track though, til the end of the season, than going over everything and seeing if there are any ways to improve on it, or even if it is worth playing. Any insight, or tweeking ideas, are always accepted with open arms from anyone.

Toronto Fc · 03-22-10, 09:02 PM

It is definitely a great thread and an interesting experiment and I've actually used it to learn a lot about probabilities and odds. The only real data you need to know is how many times the faves win by 1. When you can figure that out the math will tell you exactly how profitible this will or won't be long term, or if there are certain odds where it becomes profitible and others where it is not. If the 27% figure is correct, you need to lay less then about -250 on these bets.

fjordo · 03-23-10, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by fjordo

Mondays plays would be:

PIT @ +123 Loss -$20.00
DET -1.5 @ +223 Win +$44.60
+24.60
OTT @ +125 Win +$25.00
MTL -1.5 @ +224 Loss -$20.00
+5.00
COL @ +138 Loss -$20.00
LA -1.5 @ +200 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
-----------------
-10.40

Dogs: 78-92 +$364.40
Favs -1.5: 55-123 -$199.60
Total: 133-217 +$164.80

fjordo · 03-23-10, 10:08 AM

With a few new numbers brought to my attention by FC, I will also keep track of how often the favourite wins by exactly 1 goal.
Back in school, I used to be great with numbers, but have lost some of those skills over the years. Judging by the overall record, I've calculated that, since I've been keeping track, the favourites have won by 1 goal about 12% of the time.
So, if FC is correct, and this number has to be less than 20%, this would prove to be profitable long term, I guess thats why we are in the plus right now. Last night was above, at 33%, and would explain the loss on the night.
I will start as of last night, and lets hope this number stays below that 20 mark long term.

Dogs: 78-92 +$364.40
Favs -1.5: 55-123 -$199.60
Total: 133-217 +$164.80

Fav by 1: 1-2 - 33%

fjordo · 03-23-10, 10:22 AM

Tuesdays plays would be:

FLA @ +136
TOR -1.5 @ +206

ATL @ +105
BOS -1.5 @ +262

CLB @ +188
NJ -1.5 @ +149

PHI @ +102
OTT -1.5 @ +266

CAR @ +100
TB -1.5 @ +271

MIN @ +112
SJ -1.5 @ +245

DAL @ +151
NAS -1.5 @ +183

PHX @ +153
CHI -1.5 @ +188

EDM @ +214
VAN -1.5 @ +130

ANA @ +134
CAL -1.5 @ +206

Dogs: 78-92 +$364.40
Favs -1.5: 55-123 -$199.60
Total: 133-217 +$164.80

Fav by 1: 1-2 - 33%

fjordo · 03-24-10, 05:41 AM

Don't have time to update today. Also won't be around to get all the lines, but here are the ones out now.

PIT @ + NL
WAS -1.5 @ + NL

ANA @ + NL
VAN -1.5 @ + NL

NYI @ +131
NYR -1.5 @ +220

MTL @ +149
BUF -1.5 @ +191

STL @ +171
DET -1.5 @ +167

LA @ +117
COL -1.5 @ +241

Dogs: 78-92 +$364.40
Favs -1.5: 55-123 -$199.60
Total: 133-217 +$164.80

Fav by 1: 1-2 - 33%

thecomebacker · 03-24-10, 07:27 AM

what does the last line "Fav by 1: 1-2 - 33%" mean?

Toronto Fc · 03-24-10, 07:46 AM

It is tracking the amount of times the favourites win by 1. When they do, he loses both his bets. If you read this page it should make some sense.

Toronto Fc · 03-24-10, 07:49 AM

I think this had a big night last night Fjordo, only TB/Carolina was a loser. A lot of tickets close to or above +200 cashed.

fjordo · 03-25-10, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by fjordo

Tuesdays plays would be:

FLA @ +136 Win +$27.20
TOR -1.5 @ +206 Loss -$20.00
+7.20
ATL @ +105 Loss -$20.00
BOS -1.5 @ +262 Win +$52.40
+32.40
CLB @ +188 Loss -$20.00
NJ -1.5 @ +149 Win +$29.80
+9.80
PHI @ +102 Loss -$20.00
OTT -1.5 @ +266 Win +$53.20
+33.20
CAR @ +100 Loss -$20.00
TB -1.5 @ +271 Loss -$20.00
-40.00
MIN @ +112 Loss -$20.00
SJ -1.5 @ +245 Win +$49.00
+29.00
DAL @ +151 Win +$30.20
NAS -1.5 @ +183 Loss -$20.00
+10.20
PHX @ +153 Loss -$20.00
CHI -1.5 @ +188 Win +$37.60
+17.60
EDM @ +214 Win +$42.80
VAN -1.5 @ +130 Loss -$20.00
+22.80
ANA @ +134 Loss -$20.00
CAL -1.5 @ +206 Win +$41.20
+21.20
------------------------
+143.40

Dogs: 81-99 +$324.60
Favs -1.5: 61-127 -$16.40
Total: 142-228 +$308.20

Fav by 1: 2-11 = 15%

fjordo · 03-25-10, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by Toronto Fc

I think this had a big night last night Fjordo, only TB/Carolina was a loser. A lot of tickets close to or above +200 cashed.

Ya! This is what everynight should be like! Added around 7 units!

Toronto Fc · 03-25-10, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by fjordo

Ya! This is what everynight should be like! Added around 7 units!

And then you turn around and 3 faves win by one last night. Crazy system.