How to cap hockey

BigTuna · 02-16-10, 10:48 PM

Streaks.... it is all about finding the hot or the cold teams....

TWEETS · 02-16-10, 11:02 PM

i bet a lot of over/unders and I look at what the teams average to start with. Then, I look at what they have scored against the opposing team that year. Next, look at what they've done their last 5 games. If its a Rivalry, you have to look at how many penalties they usually commit because more penalties lead to more powerplays. You should also check the teams pp% and pk%. Gotta check the goalies that are starting that night as well. If you get real in depth, you have to look at what the ice condition is where they play. Check injuries and then i usually have a gut feel to go with. I never pressure plays, if i dont have a real good feeling, there will be more games tomorrow.

mrmarket · 02-16-10, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by Reno Gambler

O.K. Dudes and Dudettes,

I've tried to cap hockey and can not find a good angle. I've tried GF/GA for the O/U.
Goalie's goal against, comparing last 5 games ect..... Any help would help. I'm a ticket writer and the hockey guys that bet are not very helpful on their game plan.

I'm pretty much in your boat Reno. If you find any useful information about capping NHL consider sending it my way. As much as this forum is fun for posting picks and such the strategy behind the decisions is rarely discussed (which is not surprising considering the edge in SB comes from proprietary methods/information). From my limited experience it seems the goalie is a primary factor but I have as of yet been unable to identify the other factors that are relevant. In fact I can barely distinguish the good posts from the bad ones as my knowledge is so limited.

So if anyone can recommend some posters or books it would be appreciated (not interested in paying for picks)

DennisGreen · 02-16-10, 11:33 PM

Watch a lot of games to get a feeling for each team. Always go with your gut and never doubt it. Trends are important, look at previous meetings. Rivalry games will result in a lot of PP chances which = lots of scoring. Starting goalies are important as well. These are the main things I look at and have been fairly successful this year.

runt23 · 02-17-10, 12:50 AM

I will look at the goalies first. Starting goalies vs. backups. There is a thread where you can find starting goalie information. Be sure to keep checking back though, because I have found that even though a goalie is "confirmed" to start.... it's not always true.

Next I look at their overall record and how a team is doing at home vs. away. Even though you'd assume a team would have a better home record than an away record, I have found a few teams where that is not the case. Some teams are crazy good at home (i.e. like 20-8-2) but are horrible on the road (i.e. 10-18-2). I will then look at how a team has done in their last 10 games. I have yet to incorporate winning streaks though, but I will soon enough.

Hope this helps

runt23 · 02-17-10, 12:52 AM

oops

treece · 02-17-10, 12:55 AM

Flipping a coin is the best way to handicap.

Vesuvius · 02-17-10, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by Reno Gambler

O.K. Dudes and Dudettes,

I've tried to cap hockey and can not find a good angle. I've tried GF/GA for the O/U.
Goalie's goal against, comparing last 5 games ect..... Any help would help. I'm a ticket writer and the hockey guys that bet are not very helpful on their game plan.

It's all luck. Good luck.

Checkerboard · 02-17-10, 01:09 AM

With hockey I look at the standings and find a team that should really want a win for any number of reason(s), then fade that team. An example would be a team that can rake over the number eight spot in the playoff standings with 2 weeks to go in the regular season. Now is the time to get serious for this team, and rack up some wins, the first of which will put them into the playoff headed teams, albeit the last spot ... plus they're playing a team that clearly looks like they're pretty much out of it ie nothing tho play for. Make sure the line on such a game is favoring the team we're going to fade and that line is moving against the value on our fade team - in other words everyone's taking them because they should win. Fade the fockers and cash ...