Good Night
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Good Night
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3-1, really nice!Originally posted by oscar4122
20-58 (25,64%)
Total profit: 18,80 unitsComment -
Just found this thread, it is a very interesting concept. I was just wondering how do you select the teams for the tie? Example, there were many games last night, you bet on only four. Greatly appreciate your input on game selection.
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Yeah its true...But if the favorite team win in OT then its a bigger win! And yeah we could wager 1 unit on draw and favourite or it could be 2 on the favourtie and 1 on draw...Originally posted by oscar4122Im not really sure. It would be a big loss if the non favourite wins. and the odds for favorite can be like -170. thats lot of juice.
Do u think we should wager 1 unit on draw and 1 unit on the favourite?
Best way to know this would be to test it...Would even be better to test it on past seasons if it's possible...
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happy to see this thread alive amd kicking...Originally posted by oscar4122
I posted my contribution to it previously and I would like to report my results.
starting Oct 22 I play every single game to end with draw . My book (Pinny) does not have good odds anymore (around +300) but I chase all games and I am up +17,2 units.
I also chase every game to go to shootout (+550) and I do very well +10,08 units.
Well, I also chase every single game to go to overtime (+650) and I lose -9,8 units.
My unit is small though, because I am still afraid of it. If the rest of the month goes this way, I believe I will have profit with OT also (the % of OT as of now is 9,12 % only).
I wish you all best of luck.
Remember if somebody could predict draws, let say increase the current % of 23 to let say 25% he will become rich. I find this almost impossible, because draws are random.
take careComment -
The only night so far I didnt play draws... 4/6.. Speechless! Congratulations to you all doh!Comment -
Of course, there is a lot of luck invovled in picking draws.Originally posted by mrginandtonicJust found this thread, it is a very interesting concept. I was just wondering how do you select the teams for the tie? Example, there were many games last night, you bet on only four. Greatly appreciate your input on game selection.
But there are some things I look at. One thing is, how often these teams play draws.
For example, last night i played the Carolina - Toronto game.
Carolina had 3 straight games with a draw prior to this one. Toronto had 6 games without a draw, but before that they had 4 straight that resulted in a draw. So both of these teams are used to play draws.
Another factor in this game was that they were almost equally good. Toronto with a little better form, but Carolina with a better team and home advantage.
If a game is predicted to go under 5.5, that is an indication that the game will end in a draw.
When you think a game will end under 5.5 or under 6.0 goals and u find the two teams almost equally good. Or maybe with the better team on the road. Than I think it's a good choice to play draw.
2-2, 3-2, 3-3 is normal results when a game ends under (or equal, 3-3) 6.0 goals.
A game I chose not to play yesterday that ended in a draw, was the Predators - Devils game.
I was really close to play that one to. Since I thought it would be a game with few goals. And with the better team on the road.
The reason I didn't play it, was because of the fact that both of this teams had very low draw % so far this season. Devils with 4 of 20 (3 of them in the first month) and Predators with 4 of 20 (3 of them in the first 9 games. Only 1 on last 11) Thats what stopped me from playing.
The odds is, of course, a contributing factor aswell, it was +310 on that game yesterday, which not is bad. But it's lower than my average odds for draw. Which is around +330.
I don't have enough energy to write down all my thoughts for every game every night. So I play the ones I believe will end in a draw and you can tail me if you like.
I love to hear which games you play draws, so don't be afraid to write
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About the choosing .Originally posted by mrginandtonicJust found this thread, it is a very interesting concept. I was just wondering how do you select the teams for the tie? Example, there were many games last night, you bet on only four. Greatly appreciate your input on game selection.
This thread was born by a smart sight...betting a chip on a draw
everyone could enjoy.
My criteria are based on the Spread lines or the ML...rather than the team 's power.
I try to bet on matches getting almost some ML...and after a team got already more
than 2 Over....Comment -
My % at the moment is 25,64% with 20 wins and 58 losses. I don't agree with you on the "draws are random" comment, see my last post.Originally posted by 1958
Congrats to your succesfull chasing system and I wish you the best of luck.
And about the books, I suggest you try bet365. They have really nice odds for draw.Comment -
Tonight we have these games:
Capitals - CanadiensCapitals should win this one, they really should. But I still like it to end in a draw. Capitals have been playing pretty much draws so far, 7 of 26 (almost 27%). Canadiens have 8 of 23 (34,7%). Since Caps are so big favourite, we have huge odds for the draw. +375. I have to try it. But I only like it a little. Tail with caution
Sabres - Bruins
This is another game that I like, simply beacuse I think it will be few goals and because Boston likes to draw.
Buffalo got 4 of 18 so far and Boston got 7 of 21 (5 of those in the last 11 games). 2-2 or 3-3 is likely in this game.
Im trying it to odds +325
Red Wings - Panthers
This is a tough one. Red Wings are hot at home, but Panthers have been doing great on the road last few games. 6-2 win at buffalo, 1-0 after OT at Boston. They have lots of draws recently, 3 of their 4 last games.
So far this season Red Wings have 4 of 19 and Panthers have 6 of 19. Im going to try this one also, lot beacuse of the nice odds: +375
Wild - Islanders
I like this one to. Islanders have incredible 10 of 21 games so far. Wild has 5 of 21. I think that Islanders has started this season better, but with Wild at home I think this one has good chances of ending in a draw. It's also a good candidate for the under 5.5 pick, which makes me like it even more. 2-2 feels very likely.
Playing this one to +325.
Canucks - Avalanche
Canucks only have 2 draws so far this season. Avalanche has 4. Only because of that, I will not play.
Sharks - Flyers
So far this season, Flyers: 4 of 18. Sharks: 6 of 23. (4 of those in the last 8 games) Only two of Sharks 8 latest games has ended with a 2 or more goals margin. Flyers last three games has ended 3-2. It is two pretty even teams. Maybe a small advantage to Sharks cause of the homeadvantage. 3-3 is likely here.
I like this one, +325 is decent odds, im playing!
To sum it up, here are my plays with odds (from bet365 as usual)
Capitals - Canadiens +375
Sabres - Bruins +325
Red Wings - Panthers +375
Wild - Islanders +325 (favourite)
Sharks - Flyers +325Comment -
2 out of 4 at the moment.
Still feeling robbed
why? 
Because of the Islanders game. I wanted it to end 2-2 so badly. But Nolan scores 3-2 with 1 minute left, well. thats hockey.Comment -
No time, playing X in every game tonight. Half unit each.Comment -
I got 4 OT bets tonight.
Islanders @ Blues
Tampa Bay @ Carolina
Detroit @ Montreal
Florida @ New York
GL All!
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As i wrote earlier, I didn't have time to choose games. So i played them all. It has been profitable so far.
Here are the games and the odds:
TB Lightning @ CAR Hurricanes 4,20
WAS Capitals @ TOR M Leafs 4,30
CLB Bluejackets @ NAS Predators 4,25
NY Islanders @ STL Blues 4,50
PHL Flyers @ PHX Coyotes 4,25
CAL Flames @ LA Kings 4,20
BUF Sabres @ OTT Senators 4,25
DET Redwings @ MON Canadiens 4,25
FLA Panthers @ NY Rangers 4,50
PIT Penguins @ ATL Thrashers 4,25
NJ Devils @ DAL Stars 3,90
3-8
profit so far tonight: 0,9 units
alive:
CHI Blackhawks @ EDM Oilers 4,25 (score is 3-1 after first period)
SJ Sharks @ ANA Ducks 4,20 (score is 0-0 after first period)
If both loses I will be down 0,1 units today. I think ill survive that, lol.Comment -
Had a few 2$ proline tickets all to go to a shootout, I picked 5 games to go to a shootout, only missed the DET/MTL game.Comment -
Two games tonight.
TB Lightning @ ATL Thrashers 4,50 (1 unit)
CHI Blackhawks @ VAN Canucks 4,25 (0,5 unit)Comment -
I'm sorry, can I ask why VAN? They had only 2 OT this seasonOriginally posted by oscar4122Comment -
Could I invite you to open the link below?Originally posted by mrginandtonicJust found this thread, it is a very interesting concept. I was just wondering how do you select the teams for the tie? Example, there were many games last night, you bet on only four. Greatly appreciate your input on game selection.
Surfing the net I found it out...and I thought of you.
This is for showing of similar betting methods may be used on different sports too.
The link is :
I' m interested @ your opinion about
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yes of course u can ask.Originally posted by egloff
That's true, they only have 2 OT this season. That is actually the reason im only playing 0,5 units.
The reason im playing this one at all is because of three things
first: Vancouver and Chicago are two pretty even teams. Maybe a small favor for chicago, because of their form. But as i wrote earlier: in a tight game when the roadteam is a little better I like the chances for a draw, since the homeadvantage evens out the favor for the better team.
Second: Chicago has drawed 3 of their 7 last games
Third: I think it will be between 4-6 goals total in this game. So 2-2 or 3-3 is likely.
plz excuse my bad english.Comment -
thank you very much for your input.Originally posted by oscar4122Of course, there is a lot of luck invovled in picking draws. But there are some things I look at. One thing is, how often these teams play draws. For example, last night i played the Carolina - Toronto game. Carolina had 3 straight games with a draw prior to this one. Toronto had 6 games without a draw, but before that they had 4 straight that resulted in a draw. So both of these teams are used to play draws. Another factor in this game was that they were almost equally good. Toronto with a little better form, but Carolina with a better team and home advantage. If a game is predicted to go under 5.5, that is an indication that the game will end in a draw. When you think a game will end under 5.5 or under 6.0 goals and u find the two teams almost equally good. Or maybe with the better team on the road. Than I think it's a good choice to play draw. 2-2, 3-2, 3-3 is normal results when a game ends under (or equal, 3-3) 6.0 goals. A game I chose not to play yesterday that ended in a draw, was the Predators - Devils game. I was really close to play that one to. Since I thought it would be a game with few goals. And with the better team on the road. The reason I didn't play it, was because of the fact that both of this teams had very low draw % so far this season. Devils with 4 of 20 (3 of them in the first month) and Predators with 4 of 20 (3 of them in the first 9 games. Only 1 on last 11) Thats what stopped me from playing. The odds is, of course, a contributing factor aswell, it was +310 on that game yesterday, which not is bad. But it's lower than my average odds for draw. Which is around +330. I don't have enough energy to write down all my thoughts for every game every night. So I play the ones I believe will end in a draw and you can tail me if you like. I love to hear which games you play draws, so don't be afraid to write BTW, which books do you use? my locals don't have the draw bet option.
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thank you so much for your input.Originally posted by mats9863Mind if I ask how your criteria are set for Spread line/ ML to determine your picks, cuz I am tracking the lines this season as well for my plays. Thank you in advance.
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I use bet365, they have the best odds for drawsOriginally posted by mrginandtonic
thank you very much for your input. BTW, which books do you use? my locals don't have the draw bet option.
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Sure. I recognize mostly the matches predictable for ending by a tie by the Spread line.
When the spread line is moving around 10 units ( or points? ) and the match is about 2 teams of almost same value , I try the DRAW. I bet a chip , something more on the Away Team Win. But I'm testing that still now.
Yesterday
Washington@Toronto - spread started from 213 and stopped 210
Detroit@Montreal - " 212 " 200 ( it was a risky drawing)
I avoid all the spread lines starting from around 150-160 on ; I consider only from 200 on . This is only a choice of mine...never studyin' the % of tieing in these case.
I didn't bet on Nashiville drawing.
I saw the spread lines for this evening and I do think of no tie.
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Originally posted by oscar4122
Thank you for your answer. I bet for a draw on Atlanta/Tampa but bet on Chicago.
And english is a foreign language for me too, so don't bother about it :-)Comment -
Nice start. Atlanta came back from 3-1 with 5 min left, and the score after 60 min was 3-3
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nice start for me, just checked the scores this morning. But luckily I can't watch the games live during the night ;-)Comment -
hehe, i know what you mean, tough mornings for me when watching NHLOriginally posted by egloff
1-1
the "big play" hit
profit yesterday: 3 units
24-70 (25,53%)
total profit: 20,70 unitsComment -
Bruins @ Blues, 4,10 (betsson)
Under 5,5, better road team, Boston with a lot of draws,
1,5 units
Islanders @ Toronto, 4,40
Islanders lots of draws, Toronto lots of draws, road team a little better
1,5 units
Red Wings @ Predators, 4,20
Under 5,5, better road team, Preds with lots of draws.
1 unit
Flames @ Ducks, 4,20
Under 6.0, better road team, Flames 5 draws of 10 games on the road.
1 unit
Carolina @ Dallas, 4,50
Carolina lots of draws, Dallas lots of draws.
0,5 units
Capitals @ Senators, 4,25
Capitals lots of draws, better road team.
0,5 units
Columbus @ NY Rangers, 4,25
Under 5,5, Columbus lots of draws
0,5 units
Penguins @ Panthers, 4,20
Better road team, Panthers lots of draws
0,5 unitsComment -
Dallas and Edmonton for tryin'the Draw to me.
GL!Comment -
I choose all games for tonight. Better to give them all a try than missing a draw!
BOL!
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And again, that's a win! This is some heavy shit dudeOriginally posted by hultasI choose all games for tonight. Better to give them all a try than missing a draw!
BOL!
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This night again a nice round (8-2)
picked also some winner.Comment -
Originally posted by oscar4122Bruins @ Blues, 4,10 (betsson)
Under 5,5, better road team, Boston with a lot of draws,
1,5 units
Islanders @ Toronto, 4,40
Islanders lots of draws, Toronto lots of draws, road team a little better
1,5 units
Red Wings @ Predators, 4,20
Under 5,5, better road team, Preds with lots of draws.
1 unit
Flames @ Ducks, 4,20
Under 6.0, better road team, Flames 5 draws of 10 games on the road.
1 unit
Carolina @ Dallas, 4,50
Carolina lots of draws, Dallas lots of draws.
0,5 units
Capitals @ Senators, 4,25
Capitals lots of draws, better road team.
0,5 units
Columbus @ NY Rangers, 4,25
Under 5,5, Columbus lots of draws
0,5 units
Penguins @ Panthers, 4,20
Better road team, Panthers lots of draws
0,5 units
Thats a great night, 4 of 8.
Total profit tonight: 7,975 units.Comment -
1 game, 1 play, 1 unit
CLB Bluejackets @ MON Canadiens, 4,25
I like this one a lot.
Both of them got many draws so far. Columbus only 6 total, but 5 of them in their last 10 games.
Two pretty even teams. It is a under 5,5 game. I like this one to end 2-2 or 3-3.
1 unit is the wager.Comment -
1 loss.Originally posted by oscar4122
0-1
-1 units
coming more later
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