Betting draw in the NHL

[oscar4122]

I think there is good value in betting draw in the NHL because of the 2-point system.

If the score is tie with 5 minutes left. Both team will slow down the tempo and wait for the overtime, since a win in the overtime gives the same points as a win in regulation time.

In european leagues a win after reg. time gives 3 points and a overtime win gives 2 points. Therefore we see less draw games in the european leagues.

So far this season, 26,8% of the games in NHL has ended with a draw after 60 minutes.
In swedish Elitserien, only 17,5% of the games has ended with a draw after 60 minutes.


If 26,8% of the games ends in a draw we need averageodds higher than 3,73/+273 to be profitable. The average odds is much higher than that.

I'm going to play draw in all games in the NHL to see if it is profitable.


Starting tonight.

Boston @ Ny Rangers, 4,23 at betfair. (after 5% commission the odds are 4,23)
Columbus @ Washington, 4,60 at bet365
Colorado @ Vancouver, 4,20 at bet365
San Jose @ Carolina, 4,25 at bet365

1 unit each.

[mats9863]

I'm agree with you coz the odds. I'm a newbie NHL betting and I consider a tie come after an Over.
Moreover examining the odds , asif the home team and away team odds are far it's a signal of not tiing.
Worthy to me are Caps and Avalanche only for today.
I'll try them

[oscar4122]

I'm agree with you coz the odds. I'm a newbie NHL betting and I consider a tie come after an Over.
Moreover examining the odds , asif the home team and away team odds are far it's a signal of not tiing.
Worthy to me are Caps and Avalanche only for today.
I'll try them

I can agree with that. But NHL is very unpredictable. Any team can beat any team.
If I'd pick just a few of these games, it would probably be the games i decide to pass that ends in a tie. I'm going with the stats, im playing every game.
Let's see what happens!

[mats9863]

Hi Oscar,
if you bet a unit/day for each match , you'll succed in a failure. So I think your clue is good...but it might be better studied. I'm available to help you...

[mats9863]

Pick

Hi Oscar,
if you bet a unit/day for each match , you'll succed in a failure. So I think your clue is good...but it might be better studied. I'm available to help you...

Taking Caps (1 out 2 ) and cashed about 4 units .
Today nothing interesting for tiing...a chip only on NYI.
GL everyone

[oscar4122]

You have to excuse my english, but what do you mean with "you'll succed in a failure. So I think your clue is good"

Nice for you, 1 of 4 for me.

[Unitage]

you have to realize that the 26.8% clip its hitting this year is an annomoly, ive done the research and usually it hits around 22%-23% range in a season.
I too have really wanted to find a profitable way to play ties, playing every game as a tie will not yield you profits long term.
Suggest you find some really good filters that would work, personally I havnt been able to find any as ties are pretty damn random. But if you can find some and narrow the games to just a few a day you might be on to something.
Itll take tons of backtesting and time, GL.

[oscar4122]

Starting tonight.

Boston @ Ny Rangers, 4,23 at betfair. (after 5% commission the odds are 4,23)
Columbus @ Washington, 4,60 at Bet365
Colorado @ Vancouver, 4,20 at bet365
San Jose @ Carolina, 4,25 at bet365

1 unit each.

0,6 units profit yesterday.
Here are the odds for todays games.

TB Lightning @ PHL Flyers, 4,60 at bet365
LA Kings @ PHX Coyotes, 4,25 at bet365
EDM Oilers @ NY Islanders, 4,20 at bet365

[oscar4122]

you have to realize that the 26.8% clip its hitting this year is an annomoly, ive done the research and usually it hits around 22%-23% range in a season.
I too have really wanted to find a profitable way to play ties, playing every game as a tie will not yield you profits long term.
Suggest you find some really good filters that would work, personally I havnt been able to find any as ties are pretty damn random. But if you can find some and narrow the games to just a few a day you might be on to something.
Itll take tons of backtesting and time, GL.

Okay, I'll look in to the games tomorrow. And try to narrow down my picks to just a few.
Thanks for the help and the research.

[mats9863]

You have to excuse my english, but what do you mean with "you'll succed in a failure. So I think your clue is good"

Nice for you, 1 of 4 for me.

I mean that if you bet 1 unit on each game trying the tie, you'll never increase your bankroll. I like your idea, but you must refine it, imho

[mats9863]

Trying Anaheim and Canes for tiing..small betting on.
GL

[oscar4122]

0,6 units profit yesterday.
Here are the odds for todays games.

TB Lightning @ PHL Flyers, 4,60 at bet365
LA Kings @ PHX Coyotes, 4,25 at bet365
EDM Oilers @ NY Islanders, 4,20 at bet365

-2,4 units total.

I see many ties here tonight.
Actually it feels like all of the games will end in a tie.
Boston @ Detroit, 4,30 interwetten
Lightning @ Leafs 4,50 bet365
Penguins @ Ducks 4,20 bet365
Rangers @ Canucks 4,20 bet365

But im playing these 4.
1 unit each.

[oscar4122]

-2,4 units total.

I see many ties here tonight.
Actually it feels like all of the games will end in a tie.
Boston @ Detroit, 4,30 interwetten
Lightning @ Leafs 4,50 bet365
Penguins @ Ducks 4,20 bet365
Rangers @ Canucks 4,20 bet365

But im playing these 4.
1 unit each.

last night profit, 0,5 units.
Total, - 1,9 units

[oscar4122]

Tonight I have two games i feel good about.

Capitals @ Devils, 4,25 bet365
Flames @ Stars, 4,20 bet365

1 unit each

Carolina @ Florida, 4,25 betsson
Sharks @ Jackets, 4,20 bet365

0,5 unit each.

total wager. 3 units.

[xxxvince]

tough one.. draw in hockey

[xxxvince]

might as well just pick a winner and watch the game.. shootout

[oscar4122]

Tonight I have two games i feel good about.

Capitals @ Devils, 4,25 bet365
Flames @ Stars, 4,20 bet365

1 unit each

Carolina @ Florida, 4,25 betsson
Sharks @ Jackets, 4,20 bet365

0,5 unit each.

total wager. 3 units.

nice profit last night. should have played one unit each though..

3,8 units profit yesterday.

total profit. 1,9 units.

I'll come back later with tonights plays

[oscar4122]

I just have to play this. Huge odds.

Karjala cup
Sweden - Czech Republic, X to odds 4,72 at pinnacle. (4,20-4,30 on all other sites)
Finland - Russia, X to 4,45 at pinnacle (4,10-4,25 on other sites)

1 unit each

I'll probably go with draws entire Karjala cup. (6 games)



Those european tourneys (LG hockey games, Czech Hockey Games, Karjala Cup, Channel One cup) normally have pretty much draws.

So far this season 33% (2 of 6)
Last season, 25% (6 of 24)
Two years ago, 12,5% (3 of 18)
Three years ago, 25% (6 of 24)
Four years ago, 20,8% (5 of 24)
Five years ago, 33,33% (6 of 18)
Six years ago, 33,33% (8 of 24)

Total: 26,08% (36 of 138)

Lets say the average odds is 4,40 (It will be higher than that if I use pinnacle) than i only need 22,7% of the games to hit.
I think that is very possible.

[1958]

oscar,

starting oct 22, I randomly chase draws on all games on a daily basis. I use a book with rather good odds (+437 average) and chase max 15 games per day (i think once per week all NHL teams play). so far I am up 8,2 units and chase does not go too deep (approximate 4 - 5 games max and I can afford this). I also randomly place my bets to avoid streaky teams.

HOWEVER I have to propose something different. what if we chase games not to end up with a draw? the odds are usually -350. Usually teams go as deep as 4 games with a draw. Since there are over 1000 games to profit from, the return is good even if we play a ridiculous amount as a unit. The bad news is that toronto last years went to seven straight draw games!!!! ALthough I do not chase teams but simply random games the way they are reported every day in my book (and not always by time starting) I am still very reluctunt to start the chase even with one $ per game. it will be very steep in the end.

[oscar4122]

Big night in the NHL.
10 games.
I like the draws in lots of these games.

The ones i like the most are,
Ottawa - Tampa Bay
Anaheim - Nashville
Edmonton - NY Rangers

But I'm going to 8 of the 10 games. Hopefully atleast 2 hits.

Boston - Montreal, 4,30 Interwetten
Atlanta - Columbus 4,29 Bet365
Ottawa - Tampa Bay 4,30 Interwetten
St Louis - Calgary 4,20 bet365
Detroit - San Jose 4,25 bet365
Edmonton - NY Rangers 4,25 Betclic
Anaheim - Nashville 4,25 bet365
LA Kings - Pittsburgh 4,25 bet365

1 unit each.

[oscar4122]

oscar,

starting oct 22, I randomly chase draws on all games on a daily basis. I use a book with rather good odds (+437 average) and chase max 15 games per day (i think once per week all NHL teams play). so far I am up 8,2 units and chase does not go too deep (approximate 4 - 5 games max and I can afford this). I also randomly place my bets to avoid streaky teams.

HOWEVER I have to propose something different. what if we chase games not to end up with a draw? the odds are usually -350. Usually teams go as deep as 4 games with a draw. Since there are over 1000 games to profit from, the return is good even if we play a ridiculous amount as a unit. The bad news is that toronto last years went to seven straight draw games!!!! ALthough I do not chase teams but simply random games the way they are reported every day in my book (and not always by time starting) I am still very reluctunt to start the chase even with one $ per game. it will be very steep in the end.

Okay, what book are u using?
+437 is a very nice average.

Sounds interresting. You can post your plays here if u like.
I dont like to chase with odds smaller than -200. The losses can be really huge.

[1958]

p i n n a c l e s p o r t s d o t c o m is the book.

Also, I do the same thing with Shootouts and Overtimes. G a m e b o o k e r s d o t c o m offers under the title "when game will end " the betting odds for SO 6,5 straight for all NHL games and for OT 7,5 straight for all NHL games.

I have not started making money with OT and SO but it is a matter of time. I bet a really small fraction of a unit every day chasing a unit win since the odds are sooo goods. You have to be very knit with the tracking of the units otherwise if you lose a rare OT win, you lose a lot of money.

I will not add up anything to thos thread if i post daily plays (one per NHL game per day....) All it counts is the idea and the discussion we have here. it is pretty straight forward to manipulate the bets. you are right with the odds being so amall for no draw NHL games. Instead I think I will raise my betting units to increase my earnings. gl with you system but I think that the high odds make chasing very interesting..... NHL draw are so strange. During the end of the season they come more often though.
regards

[oscar4122]

p i n n a c l e s p o r t s d o t c o m is the book.

Pinnacle?
They have really low odds on draw for nhl.
Their highest of 10 games tonight is +430
the others are between +401 and +422.
Does the odds go up just before the games or do u use some kinda china version of pinnacle?

[1958]

you have to check them right after the games of the previous day end, very early. later on the odds start to flactuate. however if you play chasing, few dimes do not matter

[Sawyer]

If you bet all games to go OT, you will lose money in the end because books adjust the odds..

I was running a NHL OT System in Statfox. It was +51 Units (placing 1 unit on each bet) between 12 October-25 December. Check it out in archieves. Search as Sawyer NHL in Statfox forum.

[oscar4122]

If you bet all games to go OT, you will lose money in the end because books adjust the odds..

I was running a NHL OT System in Statfox. It was +51 Units (placing 1 unit on each bet) between 12 October-25 December. Check it out in archieves. Search as Sawyer NHL in Statfox forum.

Yes, that is true. But i have started to choose some games away. But I'm still playing the most of them.
Running good so far, we will see.

Nice system u have there James

Do u choose the games u think will go to draw or do u follow some kind of system?

[oscar4122]

I just have to play this. Huge odds.

Karjala cup
Sweden - Czech Republic, X to odds 4,72 at pinnacle. (4,20-4,30 on all other sites)
Finland - Russia, X to 4,45 at pinnacle (4,10-4,25 on other sites)

1 unit each

Boston - Montreal, 4,30 Interwetten
Atlanta - Columbus 4,29 Bet365
Ottawa - Tampa Bay 4,30 Interwetten
St Louis - Calgary 4,20 bet365
Detroit - San Jose 4,25 bet365
Edmonton - NY Rangers 4,25 Betclic
Anaheim - Nashville 4,25 bet365
LA Kings - Pittsburgh 4,25 bet365

1 unit each.

5 out of 10 not bad.
Not bad at all.

Profit yesterday: 11,5 units
Total profit: 13,4 units

[oscar4122]

These are the games and the odds for tonight, I'll return later to write which ones i will pick.

Toronto @ Carolina, 4,25 bet365
NY Islanders @ NJ Devils, 4,50 bet365
Philadelphia @ Buffalo, 4,20 bet365
Washington @ Florida, 4,05 bet365
Vancouver @ Dallas, 4,25 bet365
Chicago @ Colorado, 4,00 expekt (Bet365 is not out with the odds for this one yet)

[oscar4122]

Here are my picks for tonight,

Toronto @ Carolina, 4,25 bet365
Vancouver @ Dallas, 4,25 bet365
1 unit each

NY Islanders @ NJ Devils, 4,50 bet365
Philadelphia @ Buffalo, 4,20 bet365
0,5 unit each


Washington @ Florida, 4,05 bet365. When it's confirmed if Ovechkin plays the odds will change. I'll decide after that.

[oscar4122]

Here are my picks for tonight,

Toronto @ Carolina, 4,25 bet365
Vancouver @ Dallas, 4,25 bet365
1 unit each

NY Islanders @ NJ Devils, 4,50 bet365
Philadelphia @ Buffalo, 4,20 bet365
0,5 unit each

3 units loss there.

total profit 10,4 units.

Karjala Cup
Sweden vs Russia, 4,62 at pinnacle
Finland vs Czech Republic, 4,51 at pinnacle

1 unit each.

[mats9863]

These are the games I'm betting on for tiing
1) Kings
2) Blue Jackets
3) Caps
4) Flyers
Only chips
GL

[mats9863]

These are the games I'm betting on for tiing
1) Kings
2) Blue Jackets
3) Caps
4) Flyers
Only chips
GL

NOTHING

[oscar4122]

NOTHING

That flyers game hit, did it not?

I'm lucky I didn't play anything tonight. only 1 of 13 games ended with a draw.

[oscar4122]

Karjala Cup
Sweden vs Russia, 4,62 at pinnacle
Finland vs Czech Republic, 4,51 at pinnacle

1 unit each.

Total profit 8,4 units.

Today i'm playing draw Swedens game in Karjala cup.
Finland - Sweden, 4,41 pinnacle.

[oscar4122]

Total profit 8,4 units.

Today i'm playing draw Swedens game in Karjala cup.
Finland - Sweden, 4,41 pinnacle.

I can not believe i slept to long, missed the russian game in Karjala, ofc it ended 3-3.

Tonight im playing one of the two games,
Blues @ Trashers, 4,25 bet365