NHL Preview of Conference Finals Game 3s
Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins up 2-0
If history is any indication, it looks as though a rematch of last year's Stanley Cup final is imminent. Teams that take a 2-0 series lead in the NHL go on to win the series over 85% of the time. Then again, Washington came back from 0-2 to beat New York, and then PIttsburgh came back from 0-2 to beat Washington. Is it Carolina's turn to continue the trend? And can the young Blackhawks find a way to stop the veteran Wings?
Coming into these playoffs, there have been 71 instances where a team in the conference finals has taken a 2-0 series lead. The team that took the 2-0 series lead went on to win the series 64 times, or 90.1% of the time. That number is roughly on par with the all-time record in all NHL series where a team claims a 2-0 lead, which is 254-37 (87.3%).
Makes things sound pretty dire for the Blackhawks and Hurricanes, doesn’t it? They certainly don’t want to see the numbers when a team falls to down 3-0 in the series. 39 times a conference final series has seen a team go up 3-0, and all 39 teams went on to win the series. All-time, coming back from down 3-0 has only happened twice in NHL history, giving the 3-0 teams an overall series record of 153-2 (98.7%).
With this fate looming over them and home ice advantage for the first time in the series, there is little doubt that Chicago and Carolina will be putting it all on the line in game three. But will that be enough to defeat last year’s Stanley Cup finalists?
Game 3: #2 Detroit Red Wings (+105) vs. #4 Chicago Blackhawks (-125)
Friday, May 22, 8:00 PM
While it seems pretty clear that the Detroit Red Wings are the better team in this series, it hasn’t seemed like that wide of a margin. Game one was tied 2-2 at the beginning of the third period before Detroit eventually broke free with a couple of goals. Game two went into overtime, where a perfect bounce sprung the Red Wings on a clean 3-on-1 which they executed perfectly to bury the game winner.
Considering how close the first two games were, could playing at home be just what the doctor ordered for the Blackhawks? Chicago fans have waited a long time for this, and the Blackhawks have a lot of things working for them in this game; it is an absolute must win to avoid a 3-0 deficit and to avoid disappointing their loyal fans.
At -125, I certainly wouldn’t blame you for betting them on these factors alone. I can’t do it though; the Red Wings have proven time and time again to have a killer instinct in games like this, and they have too many veterans that have won before to get rattled by a hostile environment. Also, this Blackhawks team, which is very young and inexperienced in the playoffs hasn’t faced a situation like this before, and the crowd and pressure might work against them if they try too hard.
I’m going to stick to my guns in this series and preach the same thing I’ve been preaching all along; OVER! The total didn’t go over in the last game, but I still feel that this series is geared towards goal scoring, and Chicago should get on the board more than twice with the home crowd behind them. I’d stay away from the total and just count on the red lights going off instead.
The Pick: Over 5.5 (-120)
Game 3: #4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #6 Carolina Hurricanes
Saturday, May 23, 7:30 PM
Game two was a scary sign for the Carolina Hurricanes. In game one, Pittsburgh looked "off", and they only won by getting scoring from unlikely places and brilliant goaltending from Marc-Andre Fluery. Carolina looked in sync and ripe for an upset. I couldn’t figure out if it was Carolina’s style that was making Pittsburgh look bad, or if it was just a bad game?
After the 7-4 victory in game two led by an Evgeni Malkin hat trick and dominating play by Sidney Crosby, it looks a little like game one might have been the aberration, and that is a bad sign for the Hurricanes. I predicted before the series started that Malkin and Crosby would be too much for the Hurricanes to handle, and they certainly were in game two.
That being said, while I’m confident that Pittsburgh is going to win the series, I’m throwing stats and analysis out the window in this one. Carolina is just one of those team’s that plays every shift with their hearts on their sleeves. They play too tough and with too much passion, especially in front of their home crowd, to fall to 3-0 to anyone. Remember, this is the same team that beat two of the best teams in the East to get to this point; they just aren’t the type to go down without a fight. Unlike Chicago who I pointed out is new to this, Carolina has a ton of recent experience playing with their backs against the wall, and they thrive on it. Expect Cam Ward to be excellent tonight and the Carolina Hurricanes to find a way to claw out the win, no matter how ugly it may be.
The Pick: Carolina (-120)
If history is any indication, it looks as though a rematch of last year's Stanley Cup final is imminent. Teams that take a 2-0 series lead in the NHL go on to win the series over 85% of the time. Then again, Washington came back from 0-2 to beat New York, and then PIttsburgh came back from 0-2 to beat Washington. Is it Carolina's turn to continue the trend? And can the young Blackhawks find a way to stop the veteran Wings?
Makes things sound pretty dire for the Blackhawks and Hurricanes, doesn’t it? They certainly don’t want to see the numbers when a team falls to down 3-0 in the series. 39 times a conference final series has seen a team go up 3-0, and all 39 teams went on to win the series. All-time, coming back from down 3-0 has only happened twice in NHL history, giving the 3-0 teams an overall series record of 153-2 (98.7%).
With this fate looming over them and home ice advantage for the first time in the series, there is little doubt that Chicago and Carolina will be putting it all on the line in game three. But will that be enough to defeat last year’s Stanley Cup finalists?
Game 3: #2 Detroit Red Wings (+105) vs. #4 Chicago Blackhawks (-125)
Friday, May 22, 8:00 PM
While it seems pretty clear that the Detroit Red Wings are the better team in this series, it hasn’t seemed like that wide of a margin. Game one was tied 2-2 at the beginning of the third period before Detroit eventually broke free with a couple of goals. Game two went into overtime, where a perfect bounce sprung the Red Wings on a clean 3-on-1 which they executed perfectly to bury the game winner.
Considering how close the first two games were, could playing at home be just what the doctor ordered for the Blackhawks? Chicago fans have waited a long time for this, and the Blackhawks have a lot of things working for them in this game; it is an absolute must win to avoid a 3-0 deficit and to avoid disappointing their loyal fans.
At -125, I certainly wouldn’t blame you for betting them on these factors alone. I can’t do it though; the Red Wings have proven time and time again to have a killer instinct in games like this, and they have too many veterans that have won before to get rattled by a hostile environment. Also, this Blackhawks team, which is very young and inexperienced in the playoffs hasn’t faced a situation like this before, and the crowd and pressure might work against them if they try too hard.
I’m going to stick to my guns in this series and preach the same thing I’ve been preaching all along; OVER! The total didn’t go over in the last game, but I still feel that this series is geared towards goal scoring, and Chicago should get on the board more than twice with the home crowd behind them. I’d stay away from the total and just count on the red lights going off instead.
The Pick: Over 5.5 (-120)
Game 3: #4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #6 Carolina Hurricanes
Saturday, May 23, 7:30 PM
Game two was a scary sign for the Carolina Hurricanes. In game one, Pittsburgh looked "off", and they only won by getting scoring from unlikely places and brilliant goaltending from Marc-Andre Fluery. Carolina looked in sync and ripe for an upset. I couldn’t figure out if it was Carolina’s style that was making Pittsburgh look bad, or if it was just a bad game?
After the 7-4 victory in game two led by an Evgeni Malkin hat trick and dominating play by Sidney Crosby, it looks a little like game one might have been the aberration, and that is a bad sign for the Hurricanes. I predicted before the series started that Malkin and Crosby would be too much for the Hurricanes to handle, and they certainly were in game two.
That being said, while I’m confident that Pittsburgh is going to win the series, I’m throwing stats and analysis out the window in this one. Carolina is just one of those team’s that plays every shift with their hearts on their sleeves. They play too tough and with too much passion, especially in front of their home crowd, to fall to 3-0 to anyone. Remember, this is the same team that beat two of the best teams in the East to get to this point; they just aren’t the type to go down without a fight. Unlike Chicago who I pointed out is new to this, Carolina has a ton of recent experience playing with their backs against the wall, and they thrive on it. Expect Cam Ward to be excellent tonight and the Carolina Hurricanes to find a way to claw out the win, no matter how ugly it may be.
The Pick: Carolina (-120)
