Team Total Chase (Trial)

[sedwards86]

I'm going to monitor this and see how it goes. I will bet .5x unit for shits and giggles. In case you're unfamiliar with a chase, there will be an A bet, then a B bet (if A loses) and finally a C bet (if A and B lose). I will add my previous amount loss + the .5x unit I am chasing.

Here is the way I'm going to do it. I will bet for a home team to go over their team total (usually 2.5 goals). If they play a game at home and do not go over 2.5 goals, I will chase them to go over 2.5 goals the next home game. If they have an away game or more in between home games, I will resume the chase when they return home.

This is just a trial. Something I came up with last night while reflecting on ways to make money. I haven't back tested it hardly at all. I looked through a few of the high scoring and low scoring teams' schedules so far this season. There will definitely be some C bet losses. I'm just hoping I win enough times to cover the losses. If you just love gambling and want to tail for fun, best of luck to us. I'm always down to try something new if it may be successful. I'm aware that the chase system is not new, but I'm not aware of a chase system that follows team totals. Let's go...

[sedwards86]

1A: Devils o2.5 +130
2A: Islanders o2.5 -125
3A: Penguins o3 +100
4A: Bruins o2.5 -165
5A: Canadiens o2.5 -150
6A: Senators o2.5 +100
7A: Predators o2.5 -150
8A: Jets o2.5 -135
9A: Stars o2.5 -120
10A: Blackhawks o2.5 -140


To keep the math easy, I'm going to score them like I'm betting a whole unit, though I will only be betting .5 unit. So, if I lose a -140, I will post that I've lost 1.4 units, but in reality, I've lost .7 unit.

[darrendice]

Nice idea. Possible suggestion.... Only consider teams with an average of 2.5+ goals scored per game? (Just thinking of Colorado here....)

[sedwards86]

Nice idea. Possible suggestion.... Only consider teams with an average of 2.5+ goals scored per game? (Just thinking of Colorado here....)

Excellent point. Thank you. So, in order for a team to qualify, they must be averaging 2.5> goals going into the A bet.

Here are the changes

1A: Islanders o2.5 -125
2A: Penguins o3 +100
3A: Canadiens o2.5 -150
4A: Senators o2.5 +100
5A: Predators o2.5 -150
6A: Jets o2.5 -135
7A: Stars o2.5 -120
8A: Blackhawks o2.5 -140

[sedwards86]

1A: Islanders o2.5 -125 WIN
2A: Penguins o3 +100 LOSS
3A: Canadiens o2.5 -150 WIN
4A: Senators o2.5 +100 WIN
5A: Predators o2.5 -150 WIN
6A: Jets o2.5 -135 WIN
7A: Stars o2.5 -120 LOSS
8A: Blackhawks o2.5 -140 LOSS

System Record: 5-0


Open Series: #2, #7, #8



System Profit: +5.00


A Bets: 5-3


B Bets:


C Bets:

[sedwards86]

Jan 25.


9A: Rangers o2.5 -155
10A: Ducks o2.5 -135


Red Wings and Avalanche are below 2.5 goals per game, so they won't be played.

[sedwards86]

When I get time later today, I'm going to backtest this for this season and maybe last, just to make sure I haven't brought crap to our doorstep. I do feel good about it, though.

[sedwards86]

Jan 25.


Red Wings and Avalanche are below 2.5 goals per game, so they won't be played.

9A: Rangers o2.5 -155 LOSS
10A: Ducks o2.5 -135 LOSS


System Record: 5-0

Open Series: #2,#7,#8,#9,#10

A Bets: 5-5

B Bets: 0-0

C Bets: 0-0

[sedwards86]

Jan 26


11A: Islanders o2.5 -105
12A: Hurricanes o2.5 -110
13A: Flyers o2.5 -155
14A: Predators o2.5 -130
15A: Wild o2.5
16A: Sharks o2.5
17A: Senators o2.5 -130

7B: Stars o2.5 -160
8B: Blackhawks o2.5 -160


Bruins, Devils,Panthers and Coyotes all average less than 2.5 goals per game, so they don't make the cut.

[sedwards86]

Jan 26





Bruins, Devils,Panthers and Coyotes all average less than 2.5 goals per game, so they don't make the cut.

11A: Islanders o2.5 -105 WIN
12A: Hurricanes o2.5 -110 LOSS
13A: Flyers o2.5 -155 LOSS
14A: Predators o2.5 -130 WIN
15A: Wild o2.5 WIN
16A: Sharks o2.5 LOSS
17A: Senators o2.5 -130 LOSS

7B: Stars o2.5 -160 WIN
8B: Blackhawks o2.5 -160 WIN

[sedwards86]

System Record: 10-0. +10.00 units

Open Series: #2, #9, #10, #12, #13, #16, #17


A Bets: 8-9

B Bets: 2-0

C Bets: 0-0

[Scrivero]

System Record: 10-0. +10.00 units

Open Series: #2, #9, #10, #12, #13, #16, #17


A Bets: 8-9

B Bets: 2-0

C Bets: 0-0

Hello there. Thank you for introducing me to this great forum!

I simply love this system you have going on. Lets hope it stands the test of time (or the inevitable C bets). I do want to try something similar. Maybe just with +++odds and maybe without chasing. First I want to try ++++odds Moneylines though. I feel like that will be big, huge. Also, I think I will bring my Over/Under-system to this forum, as there seems to be much more action here.

[sedwards86]

Hello there. Thank you for introducing me to this great forum!

I simply love this system you have going on. Lets hope it stands the test of time (or the inevitable C bets). I do want to try something similar. Maybe just with +++odds and maybe without chasing. First I want to try ++++odds Moneylines though. I feel like that will be big, huge. Also, I think I will bring my Over/Under-system to this forum, as there seems to be much more action here.

Glad to have you, sir. Your ideas and input will be of great value to this forum. Feel free to take what I've begun and make it better. That's what it's all about.

I'm hoping you do begin posting your Over/Under system on this site. I actually gave your Covers page a shoutout last week.

[Scrivero]

Glad to have you, sir. Your ideas and input will be of great value to this forum. Feel free to take what I've begun and make it better. That's what it's all about.

I'm hoping you do begin posting your Over/Under system on this site. I actually gave your Covers page a shoutout last week.

Thank you for the shoutout! I do agree very very much about co-improving systems and making them into supersystems that all can benefit from greatly. I will certainly bring any and all imrpovements to your attention, if I come up with any. This system looks perfect so far.

And I think I will bring my system here. Makes it and me more vulnerable for negative comments with more people seeing it but that is needed in order to improve something.

[Slick Lizard]

Just a few thoughts off the top of my head.
1. Are you using a pure average? Home/away splits? Have you thought of using a 4max scoring threshold to prevent teams from boosting the average in blowout games? Maybe a median as opposed to an average?
2. How far back do you go for the scores included in the average? As the season progresses, teams change and with that the scoring environment is affected. Maybe consider a last 10 games or last 10 home games in your case.
3. Do you filter out teams with injuries to key players? And are you compensating for the missed scoring if a top scorer has been out but is returning in the present game?
4. Do you factor in anything to differentiate between the defensive abilities of the opponent?

I see that you have put in a 3 loss stop which is wise with a chase.

[sedwards86]

All good questions.
1. I am going by teams' overall average goals, not specifically to home or away games.
2. I go by whatever that team is currently averaging. If they currently average less than 2.5 goals going into the home game, they do not qualify.
3. No, I don't account for injuries in any way. I'm not saying it isn't important, but I still like most teams' chances of scoring 3 goals at home during the chase despite of injury.
4. No, I don't factor in opponent defense statistics.

I like your idea about going by their last ten home games. I will implement that going forwards when beginning new series. Keep the feedback coming. I will go ahead and confess that I'm not well-schooled in computers, so categorizing stuff is not as easy for me as it is for others. I go through about five notebooks each season. I always say I will brush up on Excel and begin using it, but I never do.

[sedwards86]

Jan 31.

System Record: 10-0.

System Profit: +10.00 units

Open Series: #2, #9, #10, #12, #13, #16, #17

A Bets: 8-9

B Bets: 2-0

C Bets: 0-0

2B: Penguins
9B: Rangers
10B: Ducks
12B: Hurricanes
16B: Sharks
18A: Islanders
19A: Canadiens
20A: Lightning
21A: Blues
22A: Stars
23A: Oilers
24A: Sharks


Slick Lizard, your good advice came too late. The Anaheim Ducks have only averaged 2.1 goals per game in their past 10 home games. I've already begun a series with them, so I will stick with it and hope they can score some goals soon.

The Florida Panthers only average 1.9 in their last ten home games. The Arizona Coyotes average 1.9 in their last ten home games. These two teams do not qualify.

[sedwards86]

Thank you for the shoutout! I do agree very very much about co-improving systems and making them into supersystems that all can benefit from greatly. I will certainly bring any and all imrpovements to your attention, if I come up with any. This system looks perfect so far.

And I think I will bring my system here. Makes it and me more vulnerable for negative comments with more people seeing it but that is needed in order to improve something.

Thanks, but nothing is perfect. This system will hopefully continuously evolve and stay ahead of bad times that sometimes doom other systems.

Do not be worried about the opinions of others that may criticize. I am always open to a constructive comment that may not be what I want to hear, but I always disregard a troll/hater that is just running their mouth. I want to see you continue succeeding, mainly because I am selfish and want you to help make me money

[sedwards86]

Jan 31.

System Record: 10-0.

System Profit: +10.00 units

Open Series: #2, #9, #10, #12, #13, #16, #17

A Bets: 8-9

B Bets: 2-0

C Bets: 0-0

2B: Penguins o3.5 +140
9B: Rangers o2.5 -165
10B: Ducks o3.5 +135
12B: Hurricanes o2.5 -135
16B: Sharks o2.5 -145
18A: Islanders o2.5 -120
19A: Canadiens o2.5 -140
20A: Lightning o2.5 -120
21A: Blues o2.5 -160
22A: Stars o2.5 -150
23A: Oilers 02.5 -125



Slick Lizard, your good advice came too late. The Anaheim Ducks have only averaged 2.1 goals per game in their past 10 home games. I've already begun a series with them, so I will stick with it and hope they can score some goals soon.

The Florida Panthers only average 1.9 in their last ten home games. The Arizona Coyotes average 1.9 in their last ten home games. These two teams do not qualify.

I messed up and put Sharks as 24A when they are already 16B, so I removed the duplicate pick. 5dimes is not giving me their team total yet. That happened last week with Minnesota. Two hours before game time and still no team total. I forgot to ever go back and check again, but Minny scored like 5 goals that game. Sucks. I can't believe Anaheim Ducks are o3.5, even if it is against Calvin Pickard and the Av's. The Ducks are completely boring and I was already nervous picking them to score 3 goals, much less 4 goals. Oh well. I will remember to check up later and find out about the Sharks team total.

I forgot to mention the Detroit Red Wings. They barely missed the cut, only averaging 2.4 goals per game in their last ten home games.

[sedwards86]

2B: Penguins o3.5 +140 WIN
9B: Rangers o2.5 -165 WIN
10B: Ducks o3.5 +135 WIN
12B: Hurricanes o2.5 -135 WIN
16B: Sharks o2.5 -145 WIN
18A: Islanders o2.5 -120 WIN
19A: Canadiens o2.5 -140 WIN
20A: Lightning o2.5 -120 WIN
21A: Blues o2.5 -160 WIN
22A: Stars o2.5 -150 WIN
23A: Oilers 02.5 -125 LOSS

Wow, what a night. Glad to have cleared all of the B bets.

[sedwards86]

Feb 1.

System Record: 20-0.

System Profit: +20.00 units


Open Series: #13, #17, #23


A Bets: 13-10


B Bets: 7-0


C Bets: 0-0



24A: Capitals o2.5 -140

25A: Flames o2.5 -115

26A: Kings o3.5 +135

[Scrivero]

Awesome night! I want to get in on this too, unless my third system becomes too similar.

A question: How do you chosee between O3,5 and O2,5? And is it possible tell in advance which one you will go with, or do you make the bets just minutes before the start as you mentioned in the other thread?

[sedwards86]

Thanks, man. It's working pretty well so far.

I do not wait until closer to game time to place these bets. I use 5dimes for team totals and they only give me one option (o2.5, o3.0, o3.5). Whichever one they give me, I have to take. Like last night, I was a little shocked to see Ducks o3.5, but it was cool because 5dimes gives + odds on o3.5.

[Scrivero]

Ok, cool, thanks for the reply

[sedwards86]

Feb 1.
24A: Capitals o2.5 -140 WIN
25A: Flames o2.5 -115 WIN
26A: Kings o3.5 +135 WIN

System Record: 23-0.

System Profit: +23.00 units.

Open Series: #13, #17, #23

A Bets: 16-10

B Bets: 7-0

C Bets: 0-0

[sedwards86]

Feb 2.

13B: Flyers o2.5 +100
27A: Lightning o2.5 -140
28A: Sabres o2.5 -115
29A: Predators o2.5 -140
30A: Stars o2.5 -140
31A: Blues o2.5 -150


The Coyotes and Canucks each average 2.4 goals per game in their last ten home games, so they do not qualify.

[poloman]

Hope it works out for you

[cmaulsby]

Great start to your system but am curious as to whether you have been able to back-test over a season or two. The most obvious variables that I can see would be starting time (Afternoon), injuries, and back-to-back games.

Have you applied the same study to MLB?

Thanks for sharing - this has done wonders for my open parlays.

[sedwards86]

Great start to your system but am curious as to whether you have been able to back-test over a season or two. The most obvious variables that I can see would be starting time (Afternoon), injuries, and back-to-back games.

Have you applied the same study to MLB?

Thanks for sharing - this has done wonders for my open parlays.

Between capping NHL, NBA and NCAA hoops; I haven't had time to back-test this, unfortunately.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/hockey-betting/3349378-my-humorous-attempt-making-picks.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basketball-betting/3358679-nba-picks.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/ncaa-basketball-betting/3358463-college-picks.html

I would be very grateful if someone wishes to back-test the team total chase. It'd be awesome to know if I'm doomed. It's definitely gotten off to an incredible start, but I always worry what may loom. I do feel good about it, though.

No to your question about MLB. I aim to look into it this season though. Dumb question: what do MLB team totals usually get set at? NHL is pretty consistent with 2.5 goals.

Another question: I don't have much round robin experience, but do you think this would have been profitable had I done some 2 team, 3 team or so parlays in a round robin wager?

[Flea Hotel]

2B: Penguins o3.5 +140 WIN
9B: Rangers o2.5 -165 WIN
10B: Ducks o3.5 +135 WIN
12B: Hurricanes o2.5 -135 WIN
16B: Sharks o2.5 -145 WIN
18A: Islanders o2.5 -120 WIN
19A: Canadiens o2.5 -140 WIN
20A: Lightning o2.5 -120 WIN
21A: Blues o2.5 -160 WIN
22A: Stars o2.5 -150 WIN
23A: Oilers 02.5 -125 LOSS

Wow, what a night. Glad to have cleared all of the B bets.

[sedwards86]

Haha that was the first night back after All Star intermission. I drank all night waiting for those games to finish.

[sedwards86]

If you're following this thread, here's a tip. Bet these totals as early as possible. Daily, I see the odds get higher and higher as the day goes on. Sometimes the total even goes from 2.5 to 3.5. The Dallas Stars are today's example. 5dimes team totals are usually out by noon (EST).

[cmaulsby]

Between capping NHL, NBA and NCAA hoops; I haven't had time to back-test this, unfortunately.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/hockey-betting/3349378-my-humorous-attempt-making-picks.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basketball-betting/3358679-nba-picks.html

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/ncaa-basketball-betting/3358463-college-picks.html

I would be very grateful if someone wishes to back-test the team total chase. It'd be awesome to know if I'm doomed. It's definitely gotten off to an incredible start, but I always worry what may loom. I do feel good about it, though.

No to your question about MLB. I aim to look into it this season though. Dumb question: what do MLB team totals usually get set at? NHL is pretty consistent with 2.5 goals.

Another question: I don't have much round robin experience, but do you think this would have been profitable had I done some 2 team, 3 team or so parlays in a round robin wager?

I believe most MLB TT are set around 4 1/2 - 5 1/2 so the principle should carry over. I'll start on some testing although i hope that some of the more advanced folks here might already have the data.

As far as Round-Robin goes, I would continue with the single game strategy or sit on an open parlay of 3 to 5 games so you can pick and choose your best options. I'm extremely conservative though.

[sedwards86]

Feb 2.
13B: Flyers o2.5 +100 WIN
27A: Lightning o2.5 -140 LOSS
28A: Sabres o2.5 -115 LOSS
29A: Predators o2.5 -140 LOSS
30A: Stars o2.5 -140 WIN
31A: Blues o2.5 -150 WIN

Will post today's plays later.

[sedwards86]

System Record: 26-0

System Profit: +26.00 units


Open Series: #17(OTT), #23(EDM), #27(TB), #28(BUF), #29(NSH)


A Bets: 19-13


B Bets: 7-0


C Bets: 0-0