Team Total Chase (Trial)

[sedwards86]

Feb 3.

32A: Penguins o3.5 +125
33A: Hurricanes o2.5 -155


Panthers average 2.4 goals in their last ten home games. Devils only average 1.8 in their last ten home games. These teams don't make the cut tonight. (I'm sketchy about Red Wings. They had some high scoring games to help out some duds in order to make the cut. Their average came to 2.7. I will play them to remain true to the system.)

[Scrivero]

Yea, as I think someone suggested, it could be good to take out the outliers (e.g. the highest goal amount during the last 10 games, and the lowest one too). Not sure if that would disquality Red Wings from tonight or not. Though I wouldnt change a thing as its going so well so far.

[sedwards86]

Executive Decision: The Red Wings WILL NOT be a play this time around. I actually hope they do score 3 or more, and keep doing so. Then, maybe later, they can be played.

Still waiting for Canes total. Remember to bet early..

[sedwards86]

On the bets where we get + odds, I actually risk a unit rather than win one. Example, +125, I bet one unit to win 1.25. However, to keep it simple, I won't reflect that in the System Profit. It will show as if we bet to win one unit.

I would like for System Profit to always be a whole number. That means we haven't lost a C bet.

[HoleCamels]

Youre killing it so far. Just stay away from the iffy teams that can't score. How many units would you lose if you lost a c bet?

[sedwards86]

Youre killing it so far. Just stay away from the iffy teams that can't score. How many units would you lose if you lost a c bet?

It depends on the odds for each bet. Let's use -155 for example. $10 unit.
A bet would lose $15.50.
B bet would lose $39.53
C bet would lose $100.80

That would be 15.58 units lost. That's if A, B and C were all -155 odds; which are higher than the odds we usually take. That's pretty much a worst case scenario.

[sedwards86]

I'm certain there will be losses in this system. The high octane Penguins have even gone three straight home games without scoring at least 3 goals. No team is exempt to fail us.

What are the group's thoughts on a team total under chase for teams that perform poorly on the road? We would definitely have some qualifiers..

[HoleCamels]

You could potentially take the low scoring teams and try chasing them under as well

[sedwards86]

Feb 3.
32A: Penguins o3.5 +125 WIN
33A: Hurricanes o2.5 -155 LOSS

Damn, I put a little bit on a parlay for this and the Canes let me down.

[sedwards86]

Feb 4.

System Record: 27-0


System Profit: +27.00 units


Open Series: #17(OTT), #23(EDM), #27(TB), #28(BUF), #29(NSH), #33(CAR)


A Bets: 20-14


B Bets: 7-0


C Bets: 0-0


27B: Lightning o2.5 -140
28B: Sabres o2.5 -130
29B: Predators o2.5 -160
34A: Canadiens o2.5 +100
35A: Flyers o2.5 +100
36A: Bruins o3.5 +130
37A: Islanders o2.5 -135
38A: Blue Jackets o3.5 +135
39A: Blues o2.5 -150
40A: Stars o2.5 -145
41A: Sharks o3.5 +130

[sedwards86]

Canadiens and Flyers odds just came out and are each +100. Get them now at those odds

[Surfjack]

hey, sed

I'm gonna tail this today, what's A and B? what's the unit amount for each of them?

thanks bra

[sedwards86]

B bet means the A bet loss. So, since Sabres didn't go over 2.5 their last home game (A bet), they are a B bet. I bet to win a unit plus what I lost betting for them in the A bet. If I win the B bet, it's like the A bet loss never happened.

[Surfjack]

GL bra, I had to run an errand and now the odds are messed up

[sedwards86]

Feb 4.

System Record: 27-0


System Profit: +27.00 units


Open Series: #17(OTT), #23(EDM), #27(TB), #28(BUF), #29(NSH), #33(CAR)


A Bets: 20-14


B Bets: 7-0


C Bets: 0-0


27B: Lightning o2.5 -140 WIN
28B: Sabres o2.5 -130 WIN
29B: Predators o2.5 -160 LOSS
34A: Canadiens o2.5 +100 LOSS
35A: Flyers o2.5 +100 LOSS
36A: Bruins o3.5 +130 WIN
37A: Islanders o2.5 -135 WIN
38A: Blue Jackets o3.5 +135 LOSS
39A: Blues o2.5 -150 LOSS
40A: Stars o2.5 -145 WIN
41A: Sharkso3.5+130 LOSS

Feb 5

34B: Canadiens o2.5 -130
42A: Capitals o2.5 -135
43A: Rangers o2.5 -165

[sedwards86]

Well, the system will now be up against two C bets, Predators and Canadiens. It sucks having to sweat out C bets. It's best to avoid them as long as possible, but they are inevitable.

Here will be my strategy going forward. I will not begin a chase until a team (that meets scoring criterium) goes one game at home without scoring three goals. More simply put, the C bet would fail if that team goes four games without going over team total. This will lead to less A bets, but also help prevent the dreadful C bet.

I've done some brief backtesting, and not many teams go four goals in a row, at home, without scoring 3+ goals. Any thoughts or suggestions are welcome...

I don't want to jinx anything, but I believe that this change will make this system nearly unstoppable.

[sedwards86]

I will be doing something like this come MLB season. My brother-in-law and I are going to start tomorrow with researching teams that will be most safe in chasing their TT over.

[Scrivero]

Well, the system will now be up against two C bets, Predators and Canadiens. It sucks having to sweat out C bets. It's best to avoid them as long as possible, but they are inevitable.

Here will be my strategy going forward. I will not begin a chase until a team (that meets scoring criterium) goes one game at home without scoring three goals. More simply put, the C bet would fail if that team goes four games without going over team total. This will lead to less A bets, but also help prevent the dreadful C bet.

I've done some brief backtesting, and not many teams go four goals in a row, at home, without scoring 3+ goals. Any thoughts or suggestions are welcome...

I don't want to jinx anything, but I believe that this change will make this system nearly unstoppable.

Interesting thoughts! I will however have to read this through again when my brains have more free space, to fully understand it. It has been working so much on my systems (especially modifying the Over/Under system with the new betting possibilities and the higher odds) that there is no juice left.

YOU KNOW WHAT! You and me think alike. We analyze and test and bet and use time on this stuff. You know what we should do? We should start a thread on this board where we share thoughts on creating a super system together. Other people can contribute and benefit from the results of the system, but we would mainly be the ones talking I believe.

I am guessing that we would end somewhere around doing totals (TTs or game), most likely based on past performance or odds (maybe both), maybe a chase system... But what variables, what performance, what odds, what type of chase etc etc. I would love that man. I think we could create something amazing.

[sedwards86]

I am strongly considering moving to pretty much only totals (team and game) with an occasional puck line or regulation bet. Picking moneylines seem to do nothing but make you go broke slowly.

I just don't want to be called a copycat because we all know team totals were Flea's thing. But truthfully, I've liked TT since I followed BetThenSweat in the NBA last season. Team totals seem to be the easiest bet, even though no bet is easy.

I'm down with collaborating on stuff. I'm not going to be capping college hoops anymore because there are just too many games, so I will have more time and mental capacity. Handicapping college ball takes a ridiculous amount of time if you try to do all of the games. Anyways...to simplify the change to system...Now a high scoring home team must go one game under their TT before the A bet. Like tonight, the Islanders are not a play because they scored 4 goals their last home game. I'm doing this because there are too many open series. I will continue the series which have already begun, though I'm worried.


35B: Flyers o2.5 -135

[Scrivero]

I am strongly considering moving to pretty much only totals (team and game) with an occasional puck line or regulation bet. Picking moneylines seem to do nothing but make you go broke slowly.

I just don't want to be called a copycat because we all know team totals were Flea's thing. But truthfully, I've liked TT since I followed BetThenSweat in the NBA last season. Team totals seem to be the easiest bet, even though no bet is easy.

I'm down with collaborating on stuff. I'm not going to be capping college hoops anymore because there are just too many games, so I will have more time and mental capacity. Handicapping college ball takes a ridiculous amount of time if you try to do all of the games. Anyways...to simplify the change to system...Now a high scoring home team must go one game under their TT before the A bet. Like tonight, the Islanders are not a play because they scored 4 goals their last home game. I'm doing this because there are too many open series. I will continue the series which have already begun, though I'm worried.


35B: Flyers o2.5 -135

Thanks, now I understand how it works.

And I agree and will probably stop moneylines too (I have already stopped picking my own moneylines and just do some tails). And I will stop NBA. I will just do hockey and only overs and unders. I will do the early goal system too but probably only the way it was intended, with only favorites or even teams.

You are definitely not a copycat but nothing wrong if one would be such either. It does not have to be a radical innovation to be an innovation. It is innovation nevertheless. If one can use some idea and improve it, the results can increase dramatically. Those improvements, incremental innovations also normally have the fastest results.

I want to do team totals too. Just need to come up with a way that does not go against my current Over/Under system. If we would do something together, it could not go against your team totals system either. I am thinking of something following:
1. Have team totals only.
2. Can be Overs or Unders.
3. Would be the ones with the highest possible odds(??) for each day (this should be discussed, does it make sense, maybe another idea works much better. I have seen someone do always an Under when the team wins their previus game 1-0. Something similar could be used?)
4. Your Over system and Under system would be affected but only with taking out the games with the highest minus-odds (if one would go with the highest odds).
5. The team total system would complement my system and take out some variance (as a team total can hit while match total doesnt, and vice versa) and at the same time bring more profits with the right games hitting both.
6. Could it be a doubles system? Not with the biggest odds....
7. Could/should it be a chase system?
8. What else?
9. Secret ingredient number 1 (told to others or not?)
10. Secrted ingredient number 2 (told to others or not?)
These 2 secret ingredients/variables would be changed around if something does not seem to work or if something can be enhanced.

Just some thoughts. Give your thoughts if you wish I am open to all ideas and everything that could work. I want a system that will make us millionaires.

[darrendice]

Consider labby lines....