1. #5916
    danhimal
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    Wallco NHL GOLD backtest for v1 and v2 Systems

    Live play on SBR started in the 2011-12 Season

    I in no way guarantee that this season or any other future season will produce the same results as posted below. This is merely a backtest of previous performance, and shows the increase of probability that it will happen again. It doesn’t mean it will. Please do not bet above your means. I am in no way selling anything to anybody, profiting off of their wagers, or twisting their arm to place a bet. I am merely providing information that can easily be verified by doing your own backtest. Everything is laid out here, and there are NO GUARANTEES when it comes to sports wagering.
    ________________________________________ _________________________


    V1 History

    2016-17 (149-10)
    A) 94-65
    B) 37-28
    C) 18-10
    Losses: CBJ (-26.75 u), MIN (-32.26 u), MIN (-13.43 u), MIN (-14.55 u), WAS (-28.24 u), WAS (-10.67 u), CAL (-28.81 u), BOS (-14.48 u), WIN (-22.42 u), NYI (-21.82 u)

    Total profit: -64.43 units



    2015-16 (142-9)
    A) 102-49
    B) 27-22
    C) 13-9
    Losses: MON (-25.68 u), EDM (-14.41 u), WAS (-22.76 u), CHI (-20.56 u), CHI (-37.64), STL (-19.57 u), PIT (-22.84 u), MIN (--37.88 u), PIT (-47.24 u)

    Total profit: -106.58 units



    2014-15 (156-6)
    A) 115-47
    B) 33-14
    C) 8-6
    Losses: TB (-17.77 u), MON (-27.08 u), TOR (-39.54 u), MON (-18.21 u), NAS (-20.60 u), CBJ (-30.66 u)

    Total profit:
    +2.14 units


    2013-14 (155-8)
    A) 115-48
    B) 34-14
    C) 6-8
    Losses: VAN (-24.04 u), LAK (-26.60 u), PIT (-29.63 u), STL (-25.52 u), TOR (-13.89 u), BOS (-67.89 u), LAK (-11.02 u), COL (-12.08 u)

    Total profit: -55.68 units


    2012-13 (90-3) *Strike shortened season*
    A) 63-30
    B) 17-13
    C) 10-3
    Losses: MIN (-18.04), WAS (-23.28), PIT (-22.63)

    Total profit: +26.07 units


    2011-12 (150-6)
    A) 87-69
    B) 50-19
    C) 13-6
    Losses: OTT (-10.96), EDM (-14.96), DET (-22.03), MIN (-15.02), PHO (-9.61), NJ (-26.54)

    Total profit: +50.88 units


    2010-11 (161-3)
    A) 105-59
    B) 44-15
    C) 12-3
    Losses: LAK (-23.8 ), NAS (-26.82), ATL (-17.94)

    Total profit: +92.44 units


    2009-10 (158-4)
    A) 104-58
    B) 40-18
    C) 14-4
    Losses: LAK (-11.82), PHO (-19.70), WAS (-22.83), WAS (-18.20)

    Total profit: +85.45 units


    2008-09 (150-7)
    A) 101-56
    B) 37-19
    C) 12-7
    Losses: BOS (-16.16), CHI (-19.2), CHI (-23.96), DET (-9.89), DET (-20.69), PIT (-16.55), ATL (-20.47)

    Total profit: +23.08 units


    2007-08 (160-9)
    A) 113-56
    B) 39-17
    C) 8-9
    Losses: ANA (-25.01), CAL (-12.35), DAL (-18.5), DET (-20.21), NJ (-27.14), NYI (-12.73), PIT (-21.95), SJ(-16.13), WAS(-20.8)

    Total profit: -14.82 units


    2006-07 (156-4)
    A) 100-60
    B) 39-21
    C) 17-4
    Losses: CAL (-18.13), CAL (-15.48), NAS (-14.96), PHO (-18.79)

    Total profit: +88.64 units


    2005-06 (159-7)
    A) 108-58
    B) 29-29
    C) 22-7
    Losses: BUF (-14.09), CBS (-32.32), DET (10.54), DET(-18.65), NAS(-28.37), NYR(-14.07), OTT(-11.51)

    Total profit: +29.45 units


    V1 Grand Total: +156.64 units (avg +13.05 units/season)
    ________________________________________ ________________________________________ __


    V2 History

    2015-16 (68-2)
    A) 43-27
    B) 17-10
    C) 8-2
    Losses: BUF (-31.56 u), COL (--11.35 u)

    Total profit: +25.09 units



    2015-16 (60-0)
    A) 41-19
    B) 15-4
    C) 4-0
    Losses: None

    Total profit: +60.00 units



    2014-15 (64-8)
    A) 46-26
    B) 13-13
    C) 5-8
    Losses: DAL (-14.70 u), DET (-22.42 u), BUF (-12.00 u), MIN (-23.04 u), BOS (-20.86 u), ARI (-17.63 u), NAS (-11.47 u), NAS (-21.57u)

    Total profit:
    -79.69 units


    2013-14 (73-2)
    A) 48-27
    B) 14-13
    C) 11-2
    Losses: DET (-12.81 u), STL (-21.65 u)

    Total profit: +38.54 units


    2012-13 (40-3) *Strike shortened season*
    A) 25-18
    B) 10-8
    C) 5-3
    Losses: NJ (20.16), CAR (-31.57), FLA (-10.93)

    Total profit: -22.66 units


    2011-12 (56-2)
    A) 40-18
    B) 7-11
    C) 9-2
    Losses: MON (-18.6), DET (-19.51)

    Total profit: +17.89 units


    2010-11 (86-3)
    A) 52-37
    B) 25-12
    C) 9-3
    Losses: COL (-9.85), NJ (-29.58), WAS (-23.64)

    Total profit: +22.93 units


    2009-10 (79-1)
    A) 56-24
    B) 12-12
    C) 11-1
    Losses: EDM (-19.7)

    Total profit: +59.3 units


    2008-09 (70-1)
    A) 48-23
    B) 15-8
    C) 7-1
    Losses: COL (-12.71)

    Total profit: +57.29 units


    2007-08 (87-4)
    A) 52-39
    B) 28-11
    C) 7-4
    Losses: ANA (-25.39), DET (-20.93), NYI (-15.33), OTT (-18.89)

    Total profit: +6.46 units


    2006-07 (84-2)
    A) 59-27
    B) 17-10
    C) 8-2
    Losses: EDM (-23.55), MON (-16.62)

    Total profit: +43.83 units


    2005-06 (65-6)
    A) 40-31
    B) 18-13
    C) 7-6
    Losses: CBS (-14.57), EDM (-20.33), STL (-28.44), STL (-9.20), WAS (-9.10), ATL (-20.14)

    Total profit: -40.78 units


    V2 Grand Total: +188.20 units (avg +15.68 units/season)
    ________________________________________ ________________________________________ __


    Both systems combined

    2016-17 (217-12)
    A) 137-92
    B) 54-38
    C) 26-12

    Total profit: -39.34



    2015-16 (202-9)
    A) 143-68
    B) 42-26
    C) 17-9

    Total profit: -46.58



    2014-15 (228-10)
    A) 161-73
    B) 46-27
    C) 13-14

    Total profit: -77.55


    2013-14 (228-10)
    A) 163-75
    B) 48-27
    C) 17-10

    Total profit: -17.14


    2012-13 (130-6) *Strike shortened season*
    A) 88-48
    B) 27-21
    C) 15-6

    Total profit: +3.41 units


    2011-12 (206-8)
    A) 127-87
    B) 57-30
    C) 22-8

    Total profit: +68.77 units


    2010-11 (247-6)
    A) 156-95
    B) 68-27
    C) 21-6

    Total profit: +115.37 units


    2009-10 (237-5)
    A) 160-82
    B) 52-30
    C) 25-5

    Total profit: +144.75 units


    2008-09 (220-8)
    A) 149-79
    B) 52-27
    C) 19-8

    Total profit: +80.37 units


    2007-08 (247-13)
    A) 165-95
    B) 67-28
    C) 15-13

    Total profit: -8.36 units


    2006-07 (240-6)
    A) 159-87
    B) 56-31
    C) 25-6

    Total profit: +132.47 units


    2005-06 (224-13)
    A) 148-89
    B) 47-42
    C) 29-13

    Total profit: -11.33 units


    Combined Grand Total: +344.84 units (avg +28.74 units/season)
    Last edited by danhimal; 04-11-17 at 06:42 AM.
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  2. #5917
    danhimal
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    Wallco NHL Gold - System Rules

    Welcome to NHL GOLD. This system is a three game chase system based on teams winning/losing streaks. It is broken into two versions, Teams who win three games in a row S/U (v1), and teams who lose three games in a row S/U and ATS (v2). Needless to say, since this system is performance based, the chance of having both sides of a game being an official play at the same time does exist, and does happen on occasion. The v1 has been significantly stronger than the v2, but both are profitable long term. When posted, the plays will be listed as ďv2Ē for the plays that correspond to v2. If ďv2Ē is not posted next to the game, assume it as a v1. A description of each system is listed below.

    V1 System (3 wins in a row S/U)
    The v1 is based on teams winning streaks. The puck lines donít matter while qualifying a team to be a play. Look for teams who have won three straight games. Once you find them, you will FADE this team (bet on their opponent) in a three game chase for the next three games. If the team you are betting on is even money on the money line, or a M/L favorite on ScoresandOdds.com, play the M/L. If they are a M/L dog, play the P/L. The final lines at ScoresandOdds.com will be used for stats results and for determining M/L or P/L.
    If your team wins the first bet (the (A) bet), the series is over. If it loses, you will proceed to a (B) bet, wagering the amount you lost in (A) plus whatever profit you were trying to achieve in (A). If (B) bet loses, your (C) bet will be losses from (A) + (B) + profit. If (C) loses, the series is over and we take a loss. Hockey betting can be one of the most expensive sports to lose a 3 game chase, so adjust your wagers accordingly. Generally a loss is around 20 units, many are lower, and some are larger (could be upwards of 30 units). There are generally 150-170 plays in the v1 system, and from my backtesting I have noticed that it is usually around 9 losses before we take a negative for the season. This has only happened twice.

    Special Rules for v1:
    1) Never count the first THREE games of the season when determining teams winning streaks. Do not start counting teamís wins until their fourth game played. Which means the earliest we will have a play in v1 system will be on a teamís 7th game.
    2) Never play a winning streak around the All Star or Olympic breaks unless all three games of the chase are before the break or all three games of the chase are after the break. The winning streak to qualify the teams can span the break, but ALL the actual games we are betting on must all be BEFORE or AFTER the break. E.g.: A team qualifies near the all star break with three wins in a row. The team has two remaining games before the break. This team will NOT be a play because all three of the chase games were not before the break. E.g.: A team qualifies by winning their last two games before the break, and their first game after the break. This will be a play because ALL three chase games will be after the break.
    3) If a team has a 6, 9, 12, 15, Ö game winning streak, there will be multiple plays during that streak. Each three in a row will be a play, so if a team has a 12 game winning streak, there will be four different chases along the way. These chases will never overlap, because the first one will always be concluded by the start of the next one.
    4) NEVER START A CHASE IF IT CANNOT BE CONCLUDED. If a team wins three in a row, and does not have at least three remaining games on their schedule, do NOT play the series.
    5) The way you play head-head games it at your discretion, but the system will count and play ALL qualified teams, unless they qualify at the same time, and their potential (C) bets will be against each other, we may opt not to play. I will help you recognize these with notes on the updates.


    V2 System (3 losses in a row S/U and ATS)
    The v2 system is a little different than the v1, the bet structure is the same and we will still be using ScoresandOdds.com, however, there is a little more to it than just losing three straight. Find teams that have lost 3 straight games. Next, make sure these teams have also lost three straight ATS. This means that a M/L favorite or M/L even odds team will only have to lose the game, but a M/L dog team has to lose by 2 or more goals. This info will be determined from the final lines at ScoresandOdds.com. Once a team qualifies, you will bet on that team to get a WIN in one of their next three games, same three game chase applies. So for the v2, we are betting ON the team, as opposed to the v1 where we are betting AGAINST the team.

    Special rules for v2
    1) You will use ATS as well as S/U to qualify teams.
    2) Never count the first TWO games of the season when determining teams losing streaks. Do not start counting teamís losses until their third game played. Which means the earliest we will have a play in v2 system will be on a teamís 6th game.
    3) The All Star and Olympic breaks rule is the same as v1.
    4) The losing streaks rule is the same as v1, provided all the games meet the ATS requirement.
    5) Never start a chase if it cannot be concluded.
    6) Head to head games it at your discretion, but all games will count in system..

    The v2 has significantly less plays than the v1, mainly because of the ATS requirement. It will take less losses than the v1 to be negative for the season. This has only happened twice so far. The other years, the two in combination did phenomenally well. If you were to pick one over the other, I would go with the v1. But it seems that even the years that one happens to lose, the other one picks it up some. The years that both teams win, they win big. Below is a backtest through the 2005-06 season. I have listed them separately and combined, so you can see how they did on their own and together.

  3. #5918
    oilcountry99
    oilcountry99's Avatar SBR PRO
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    Thanks for posting this season.

  4. #5919
    Wallco99
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    It may be time to retire this system. Not producing well at all the past few seasons. Fortunately my Chase 110 has been picking up the slack.

  5. #5920
    oilcountry99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wallco99 View Post
    It may be time to retire this system. Not producing well at all the past few seasons. Fortunately my Chase 110 has been picking up the slack.
    Revise your MM strategy, system can and was profitable.

  6. #5921
    skyscrapers
    Go Big or Go Home
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wallco99 View Post
    It may be time to retire this system. Not producing well at all the past few seasons. Fortunately my Chase 110 has been picking up the slack.
    Unfortunately as much as I love NHL Gold, I have to agree that it is time to retire it. Since implementation in 2011 the system is down -108.43 units. Additionally, four straight losing seasons is not gonna keep any system going even after the 5-year winning streak. Maybe the 5-year win streak is just an anomaly...we may never know. What I'll do for next year is I may chase for 2 units in Chase 110 instead. I just want to take this time to thank Wallco for all the work he's done on the backtests and Danhimal too for posting the last couple years. It was a fun run though...

  7. #5922
    Andy3568
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    Both versions have definitely declined in recent years, though V1 has been the culprit in the majority of losses.

  8. #5923
    alexknyc
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy3568 View Post
    Both versions have definitely declined in recent years, though V1 has been the culprit in the majority of losses.
    To be fair, this year, Columbus and Minnesota both had 15 game winning streaks. That's a huge outlier statistically.

  9. #5924
    Reeseta
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    What if you qualify V1 as the same as V2 win 3 in a row ATS i know it will be less but should be more proffitable as well. I also think V2 we can still follow. 6 losses in a row ATS is very rare even over the years.

  10. #5925
    Wallco99
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    Did you backtest it? Or just type a random thought that popped in your head?

  11. #5926
    Reeseta
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    i will back test it and see how it did

  12. #5927
    Reeseta
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    so back tested last year.

    a bet won 31
    b bet won 11
    c bet won 4

    lost 1 series which was the wild.

    this was using the -1.5 puckline, so if a team wins S/U and ATS it becomes a system play where before we were just using wins.

    alot less plays but they seem to be stronger, should we test this year of do you think i should back test for a couple years?

  13. #5928
    Wallco99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reeseta View Post
    so back tested last year.

    a bet won 31
    b bet won 11
    c bet won 4

    lost 1 series which was the wild.

    this was using the -1.5 puckline, so if a team wins S/U and ATS it becomes a system play where before we were just using wins.

    alot less plays but they seem to be stronger, should we test this year of do you think i should back test for a couple years?
    At least 10 years. And that is an extremely small sample of plays, and a lot less plays. This is an entirely different set of criteria, so if you are going to play it set up another thread.

  14. #5929
    Firegreek
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    How close are we to having our first play wallco

  15. #5930
    Wallco99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firegreek View Post
    How close are we to having our first play wallco
    We retired the system at the end of last season. Too inconsistent the past few years.

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