So here's my idea. I'm not asking anyone to do any backtesting (unless they want to). I was just wondering if anyone's tried this before, what their experience is, opinions are, etc.
In any game that has an underdog who's +111 or greater you bet 1 unit the underdog to win the game and 1 unit on the favorite to cover the spread. So the only way you lose is if the favorite wins by one. Going into Monday nights, if a team wins or loses 60% or more of their games by one goal, they're omitted for that week. Currently I'm omitting Chicago, Calgary, Ottawa and the Islanders.
If you lose. Use St. Louis for an example. Their game against Montreal a few nights ago was a loss. So last night when they played the Pens, I bet 2 units each on the underdog ML and the favorite spread. That also lost. So now St. Louis is -3, Pittsburgh is -2, and Montreal is -1. I'll keep doubling down on their games until one wins.
I use SBR points for the experiment btw.
The upside is that if you properly filter, you'll be in the black about 75% of the time...based on the limited back testing that I've down and the experiment I'm currently running. The bad news is that you're sometimes risking 2 units to win .2.
So that's why I'm trying to figure out an effective way to manage the bets and neutralize the losses.
Anyone have any experience with something like this?
Tonight's ticket looks like this:
In any game that has an underdog who's +111 or greater you bet 1 unit the underdog to win the game and 1 unit on the favorite to cover the spread. So the only way you lose is if the favorite wins by one. Going into Monday nights, if a team wins or loses 60% or more of their games by one goal, they're omitted for that week. Currently I'm omitting Chicago, Calgary, Ottawa and the Islanders.
If you lose. Use St. Louis for an example. Their game against Montreal a few nights ago was a loss. So last night when they played the Pens, I bet 2 units each on the underdog ML and the favorite spread. That also lost. So now St. Louis is -3, Pittsburgh is -2, and Montreal is -1. I'll keep doubling down on their games until one wins.
I use SBR points for the experiment btw.
The upside is that if you properly filter, you'll be in the black about 75% of the time...based on the limited back testing that I've down and the experiment I'm currently running. The bad news is that you're sometimes risking 2 units to win .2.
So that's why I'm trying to figure out an effective way to manage the bets and neutralize the losses.
Anyone have any experience with something like this?
Tonight's ticket looks like this:
| Ticket#:2277412 Nov 10 07:00 PM |
Nov 10 04:47 PM | NHL | STRAIGHT BET [3] FLORIDA +200 |
10.00 / 20.00 |
| Ticket#:2277413 Nov 10 07:00 PM |
Nov 10 04:47 PM | NHL | STRAIGHT BET [4] NY RANGERS -1½+120 |
10.00 / 12.00 |
| Ticket#:2277414 Nov 10 08:00 PM |
Nov 10 04:47 PM | NHL | STRAIGHT BET [9] WASHINGTON +150 |
20.00 / 30.00 |
| Ticket#:2277415 Nov 10 08:00 PM |
Nov 10 04:47 PM | NHL | STRAIGHT BET [10] COLORADO -1½+182 |
20.00 / 36.40 |
| Ticket#:2277416 Nov 10 08:00 PM |
Nov 10 04:47 PM | NHL | STRAIGHT BET [11] SAN JOSE -1½+170 |
10.00 / 17.00 |
| Ticket#:2277417 Nov 10 08:00 PM |
Nov 10 04:47 PM | NHL | STRAIGHT BET [12] WINNIPEG +150 |
10.00 / 15.00 |
| Ticket#:2277418 Nov 10 08:00 PM |
Nov 10 04:47 PM | NHL | STRAIGHT BET [13] VANCOUVER +150 |
20.00 / 30.00 |
| Ticket#:2277419 Nov 10 08:00 PM |
Nov 10 04:47 PM | NHL | STRAIGHT BET [14] ANAHEIM -1½+170 |
20.00 / 34.00 |