Buffalo Sabres @ San Jose Sharks

ZdenoK · 11-05-13, 09:59 AM

Value?

BenGooGa · 11-05-13, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by ZdenoK

Value?

What do you think of Sharks -1.5 and ML?

PuckIt · 11-05-13, 10:13 AM

There is no value on the Sharks tonight.

BenGooGa · 11-05-13, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by PuckIt

There is no value on the Sharks tonight.

What i mean by value is easy win.

based on their records, i think the Sharks should win this easy, isn't it?

PuckIt · 11-05-13, 10:28 AM

Well of course they should win easy tonight, thus the line. That being said, this is fairly early hockey and almost anything can happen.

I'm not going near it unless I see a good deal live.

BenGooGa · 11-05-13, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by PuckIt

Well of course they should win easy tonight, thus the line. That being said, this is fairly early hockey and almost anything can happen.

I'm not going near it unless I see a good deal live.

Got it, Thanks PuckIt

PuckIt · 11-05-13, 10:51 AM

Best bet IMO would be to wait until game time. By the odd chance Buffalo scores first, pound the Sharks.

BenGooGa · 11-05-13, 10:54 AM

sounds good, on it

ZdenoK · 11-05-13, 11:33 AM

I would avoid Sharks tonight. They will probably win as they have lost 2 of their last home matches in OT, they will want to come out strong and determined to get 2 points in regulation tonight which slipped away in the past 2 matches. Sharks are #1 in the offense, scoring more than 4 goals in average at home and Buffalo has lost last 2 matches covering the -1.5 handicap. But with given odds... if anything, I'd bet on Buffalo as a value bet. They have one of the top goalies - Miller, and Moulson brought some fresh wind to the team. I know Sabres are crap but I think they are not as bad as people see them. Sharks will probably win something like 5-1 tonight but with these odds I'm staying away.

BenGooGa · 11-05-13, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by ZdenoK

I would avoid Sharks tonight. They will probably win as they have lost 2 of their last home matches in OT, they will want to come out strong and determined to get 2 points in regulation tonight which slipped away in the past 2 matches. Sharks are #1 in the offense, scoring more than 4 goals in average at home and Buffalo has lost last 2 matches covering the -1.5 handicap. But with given odds... if anything, I'd bet on Buffalo as a value bet. They have one of the top goalies - Miller, and Moulson brought some fresh wind to the team. I know Sabres are crap but I think they are not as bad as people see them. Sharks will probably win something like 5-1 tonight but with these odds I'm staying away.

What u r saying is like Chinese to me. i def need more education in NHL.
Thanks for the analysis.

PuckIt · 11-05-13, 01:18 PM

Translation:

Sharks are a really good team, but have managed to lose their last two games in overtime, so they will be hungry to win tonight.

Buffalo isn't a very good team, but they have talented goaltenders.

Sharks have a great offensive squad.

Buffalo has a lot more value than Sharks here just because the Sharks line is so juicy.

Summary: Stay away.

cmaulsby · 11-05-13, 02:03 PM

I'm expecting Stalock (Sharks backup goalie) to start tonight which will drop ML to around -250. better value may be the over or even San Jose Team Total.

cmaulsby · 11-05-13, 03:32 PM

.......scratch that last idea - Niemi starts.

Lift2beFit · 11-05-13, 04:36 PM

Im putting 20 on buffalo just for shits n gigs. I was dramatized when i saw -430 (current line at scoresnodds). Vegas might be in for a late halloween treat here.

I do believe the sharks are number one in nhl, but every team goes down to a shitbag squad sometime in the season. The thought here is will the sharks come out and makeup for those losses OR are they slumping to a point where the sabres could cover?

Maybe vegas tried scaring the public off with an opening -300 but that obviously didnt work, who knows maybe not. Either way the triple square play is on the sharks and thats usually when things start to go wrong.

Mike Huntertz · 11-05-13, 05:28 PM

Sharks 1st period -0.5 +110
Buff has been outscored 20-2 in the 1st

nyplayer33 · 11-05-13, 05:40 PM

you guys are funny...do we really think that san jose has lost the last two makes them more determinded to win tonight?? I thought they play there hardest all the time

PuckIt · 11-05-13, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by nyplayer33

you guys are funny...do we really think that san jose has lost the last two makes them more determinded to win tonight?? I thought they play there hardest all the time

You obviously never played hockey at a competitive level.

ZdenoK · 11-05-13, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by nyplayer33

you guys are funny...do we really think that san jose has lost the last two makes them more determinded to win tonight?? I thought they play there hardest all the time

With every loss added to your bad streak you desire to end the bad momentum that more. Losing twice in OT vs Pacific rivals is a slap in the face twice. Lose another one and before you know it you turn into San Jose from last season who wins 5 and then loses 5 straight.

rainman416 · 11-05-13, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by nyplayer33

you guys are funny...do we really think that san jose has lost the last two makes them more determinded to win tonight?? I thought they play there hardest all the time

There is a reason that sports psychology is a growing field right now... Players are not machines.. they have feelings, emotional issues, and "lives" outside of hockey that can interfere with their play on any given night.. The whole concept of "Momentum" is based on the psychological state of the players in the game..

If you're suggesting that players try just as hard on game 18 of the season as they do on game 7 of the stanley cup final, I suggest you refrain from ANY further betting!

The goal of sports psychologists and coaches/GM's/Trainer's etc. is to get that 100% GO STYLE of play from their players at all times.. but that goal is impossible and it becomes a matter of "how close can we get them to that mark"...

When a coach or player goes through a traumatic event, the players tend to reach a new emotional level and usually win their next game.. (mostly citing the Pagano, run that the Colts went on last year in the NFL).. Or the KC team that only won two games last year, one of those coming the week after their teammate was involved in that ridic. incident..

My point being that, there IS absolutely good reason to believe that losing two games in a row in nasty OT/SO fashion will BOOST the SJ players a few percentiles closer to that 100% mark that all athletes wish they could maintain all season..

The psych angles involved in Sports are what I weight most heavily when I make my picks.. Trends are just guess work.. but the psychological state of a team heading into a game (despite being hard to determine) is probably the best single piece of research a capper could have.. So the question is.. Who has the bigger Psych edge.. SJ off two OT/SO losses? Or BUF coming into this game after the worst start in franchise history, and playing the best team in the league... ?

Hard to say, but I have half a unit on BUF(In Reg.) simply because it pays +600.. which is a ridiculous line for the NHL.. If these teams played/re-played this game 6 times, I think BUF would take at least one in reg.

GL tonight.

Grease King · 11-05-13, 06:40 PM

I agree rain; Buffalo would take at least one of these games given a six game series. The only thing that kind of interests me in this game is Sabres +1.5 @ +110. I believe its the first +PL we have seen that pays out + money all season

BenGooGa · 11-05-13, 06:48 PM

Interesting, let's see what's gonna happen. gonna enjoy watching it.

ColdBeerHere · 11-05-13, 09:04 PM

i like the Sharks 1st period -.5 +105

just dropped 2u on that ....Let's go Sharks

ZdenoK · 11-05-13, 09:45 PM

Originally posted by ColdBeerHere

i like the Sharks 1st period -.5 +105

just dropped 2u on that ....Let's go Sharks

I like this one. Checked some stats and it looks good.

ColdBeerHere · 11-05-13, 09:52 PM

I also started an open parlay with the sharks in regulation

Big Bang Clock · 11-05-13, 10:06 PM

So temped to grab Sabres at +370. That's insane for a hockey game with two NHL teams.

ColdBeerHere · 11-05-13, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by Big Bang Clock

So temped to grab Sabres at +370. That's insane for a hockey game with two NHL teams.

I agree...The only problem is Buffalo is not an NHL team....Take a look at this joke of a lineup.....There can't be a worse group of forwards in the league...

26 Matt Moulson – 19 Cody Hodgson – 63 Tyler Ennis
9 Steve Ott ("C") – 82 Marcus Foligno – 78 Corey Tropp
28 Zemgus Girgensons – 22 Johan Larsson – 65 Brian Flynn
23 Ville Leino – 8 Cody McCormick – 21 Drew Stafford
X: 25 Mikhail Grigorenko, 32 John Scott

rainman416 · 11-05-13, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by Big Bang Clock

So temped to grab Sabres at +370. That's insane for a hockey game with two NHL teams.

Thats what I'm sayin' too.. In a Salary Cap NHL there is always value in ML's over +350 and In Regulation Win's at +600!! Happy to lose a half unit bet on lines like that anytime. See how they pay this season.

leafs_ducks · 11-05-13, 11:46 PM

Damn. Should've hedge my sj bet. Now they gonna f'd me

nyplayer33 · 11-05-13, 11:58 PM

really..there is value in a big underdog...ive bet minus 1.5 goals vs buffalo and made a nice amount..cause they are winning 2-1 now in one game..your the champ of nhl betting..

hossa8110 · 11-06-13, 12:26 AM

sharks got plenty of time

ColdBeerHere · 11-06-13, 12:27 AM

You're about ready to see why Buffalo is the worst team in the league.

Mike Huntertz · 11-06-13, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by Mike Huntertz

Sharks 1st period -0.5 +110
Buff has been outscored 20-2 in the 1st

I love it when a plan comes together.

kevin101 · 11-06-13, 01:04 AM

If buffalow wins Vegas gets fhked??

Unluckybetter · 11-06-13, 01:28 AM

Lesson of the week Sharks suck at over time.