> -200 fav PL findings

hubbard689 · 10-14-13, 06:50 PM

Another tidbit, ML favs of > -180 are 6-8 since the start of the season. Not sure what a good average PL odds on those to use would be but pretty sure that would be profitable on the season as well.

hubbard689 · 10-14-13, 06:55 PM

Just did some extremely quick math but if the average PL odds on a > -180 ML fav was +170 I think you'd be up ~8 units on the season auto-playing any > -180 fav on the PL. Very interesting

hubbard689 · 10-15-13, 02:11 PM

Someone must have some thoughts on this! First trial tonight with Pens -1.5 +126 (was +138 last night)

AceKingHigh · 10-15-13, 03:42 PM

Good luck! keep posting about it. let us know how it goes

hubbard689 · 10-15-13, 04:19 PM

Play #2, tomorrow: ANA -1.5, +165

Thinking I will make this into a chase on every single play. So will be looking to make a profit off of the PL of every ML fav of >-180. The good thing is it won't be straight martingaling, as the odds will typically be between +140 and +180.

So all 'game 1s' will be risking 1 unit. In the event of a loss a PL the next day will be used for a game 1 as well as the game 2 from the loss, I guess which game for the game 2 will just be up to me. But 2 units won't have to be risked on the game 2, it will typically be in the range of 1.3-1.5 units on game 2s, 2 units for game 3s, etc.

Any input is appreciated as I'd like to make this system better!

hubbard689 · 10-15-13, 04:35 PM

Whoa whoa hold the presses everyone. Lines must have changed since last night as NYI -1.5 are now a play and although COL are only -175 ML favs they are also a PL play. So recap plays so far:

Play 1: PIT -1.5
2: NYI -1.5
3: COL -1.5
4: ANA -1.5 (tomorrow)

PStrangers · 10-15-13, 05:47 PM

If the -1.5 PL is hitting 36.7%, then you have to bet PL's that are +172 to break even. The the PL for Pens today is +120. Not saying that there isn't value at +120, or that it isn't a good bet, just saying that "blindly betting" them might not lead to a profitable system.

If PL's are cashing at a blind rate better than odds required to make money, the books will eventually adjust the PL odds so it will be unprofitable.

Football teasers used to be 7 points and +100 odds, now they are 6 point -110 odds... why? b/c the books lost too much money on them. They aren't in the business of losing money.

mnwild11 · 10-15-13, 05:50 PM

pens PL now at even, thats gotta be a first

hubbard689 · 10-15-13, 06:19 PM

Thanks for your input PStrangers. I understand all of that, and although I'm going on an EXTREMELY small sample size, I decided to only bet the PL on teams who are quite a large ML favorite, and over this sample size they're cashing at 42.8% (since the start of the season). Obviously PL favs overall are cashing at a rate much lower than that due to the -105, -120, etc. ML favs not having as good of a chance at winning by 2 goals.

So I'll see how this goes for a little bit!

hubbard689 · 10-16-13, 04:40 PM

Well rough start last night, got a game 1 on ANA -1.5 tonight and a game 2 on em too to cover one of the losses from last night. Good luck!