Derivatives - Team Totals

**rsigley** · 09-16-12, 08:52 PM

33995555555555555555555555555555555555

**339955** · 09-16-12, 09:12 PM

come rsigley you said i was your best friend

**339955** · 09-16-12, 09:15 PM

risgley while you are here help me out. i am waiting on your helping hand to guide me down the path only i hope you will not push me off the cliff... i have couple bets riding on tomorrow game also.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 09-16-12, 09:58 PM

Here's how you model derivatives...

1. Buy a 12 gauge shotgun and/or a box of 12 gauge slugs, if necessary.
2. Load the shotgun with the slugs.
3. Ensure that there is a live round in the chamber and that the safety is off.
4. Insert the barrel into your mouth.
5. Pull the trigger.

I wish you great success, 339955.

**Justin7** · 09-16-12, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by 339955

How do you model team totals in NFL, NCAAB, NBA? Do you just model them as derivative off of full game total and spread?

This would get you very close. Close enough to beat openers on these props.

**sayhey69** · 09-16-12, 10:12 PM

lol

**339955** · 09-16-12, 10:16 PM

Justin, how do you model team totals?

When you are betting quarter totals do you find the best bets at opener, at closing, or sometime in between? How marked is the difference in those time frames?

**Justin7** · 09-16-12, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by 339955

Justin, how do you model team totals?

When you are betting quarter totals do you find the best bets at opener, at closing, or sometime in between? How marked is the difference in those time frames?

Create "windows", based on spread and total. For example, a window might be visitor spread +6.5 to +7.5, total 42 to 45.

Team totals often focus on critical numbers, like 20 or 24. In that window, how often does the team go over? You want to expand your window evenly in both directions to get some sort of reasonable sample size.

If yo are considering a +7 dog with a total of 49, is betting that dog over 20 -115 good? Start at +7/49, and expand your window evenly (on spread and total; add about 1.5 to 2.5 points to total in each direction for every 0.5 points to spread in each direction) until you get a sample size with which you are comfortable.

**mathdotcom** · 09-16-12, 10:39 PM

Fudge factors.. now windows..

**sayhey69** · 09-18-12, 02:44 PM

justin7 how do you know how big to make your window?

is this ok?

or is this better?

**buby74** · 09-18-12, 05:43 PM

With respect sayhey a sample size of 2 windows is insufficient to say anything about how big a window should be.