Distribution of Bet Types (Spread, Moneyline, Total)

[mathdotcom]

All the geniuses of previous centuries were laughed at by their peers

... but so were the other 99.99999% who were actual fukking morons like DarkHorse

[Spektre]

The answer is simple

In general you'd expect spreads to have more value (or cost you less...) since the vig is lower than moneylines.

The spread and moneylines are simple derivatives of each other. Example:

Pr(Covering 3.5 pts) = Pr(Covering 0 pts) - Pr(Losing by 1 or 2 or 3) = Moneyline - Pr(Losing by 1 or 2 or 3)

So if you like a team and want to know whether to lay the points or take the moneyline, you need to know what the 1 2 and 3 are worth.

If you shop enough sometimes you'll find the best value is in the spread and sometimes you'll find the best value in the moneyline. It's like asking whether you should buy corn or Iowa farmland.

Wow. So here is your answer to this very question I posed. Hmm, but you must not have had your morning coffee yet that day. You were really grumpy.

[big0mar]

food for thought -
Home Dogs off an Away Dog SU win are
32-31 SU
40-23 ATS

..and as a dog of less than +7
28-24 SU
33-19 ATS

How is this allowed in HTT???