NFL prop pricing example (video)

[Justin7]

[VBOMBER]

Thanks Justin!!

[diogee]

Thanks for another informative video Justin.

[Bread]

Great stuff there John Nash!

[RogueJuror]

bump


Justin what video software you use?

[Justin7]

bump


Justin what video software you use?

Pinnacle 12.0.

[marcoforte]

How did you get 280/320? Is this 10% over or under? If so, what's psecial about 10%? Why not a std dev?

[Justin7]

Each is about 7% off the number. I could do a standard deviation analysis on the prop, but that is fairly complicated.

[pimike]

Once again very nice work

[Sforz]

thanks.

[t-bone]

great video, thanks justin!

[Justin7]

Anyone notice total yards: 307 for Cutler?

[onthewhat]

What was the line?

[Justin7]

I made it 300, and said take over 280 or under 320.

[onthewhat]

Yeah I know. What was the line books offered on this prop?

[durito]

I didn't see a line for it anywhere.

Greek had this:

11/2/2008 4:00 PM Pennington vs Cutler - most gross passing yards by Both players must play in game for action (Offense only). Game must go 55 minutes for action. Overtime counts towards wager. Official stats via NFL.com Any scoring changes after game is official are invalid towards wager. Max wager is $300
617 Chad Pennington +24½ passing yrds -120
618 Jay Cutler -24½ passing yrds -110

[FreeFall]

what if the median and average are "far" apart then just neglect the integrity of the data and choose someone else?

[Justin7]

what if the median and average are "far" apart then just neglect the integrity of the data and choose someone else?

You either pass on the prop, or find out why. Several injuries could cause this. If you can identify which games were affected by injuries, you could remove the ones that are different... But now you sample size is smaller.

[bamasman47]

Great Post Justin! Thanks.

[element1286]

You either pass on the prop, or find out why. Several injuries could cause this. If you can identify which games were affected by injuries, you could remove the ones that are different... But now you sample size is smaller.

At what point would you consider them to be far off. 10% difference, 15%?

[Justin7]

On that particular one, I set the cutoff at a 7% difference. It depends on how volatile the number is.

[element1286]

On that particular one, I set the cutoff at a 7% difference. It depends on how volatile the number is.

Ok, thanks.

[pats3peat]

Great video. I'd like to see you talk about other small important factors like the small spread as opposed to a large spread