NCAAF Derivatives (Rsigley)??? $$$

**MonkeyF0cker** · 09-02-12, 03:27 PM

Maybe try PM'ing him?

No sense in starting a thread if you only want one person's advice/opinion/contributions.

**antifoil** · 09-02-12, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Maybe try PM'ing him?

No sense in starting a thread if you only want one person's advice/opinion/contributions.

you felt left out?

ok, how have you been doing in the sports derivatives market? do you find sports derivatives to be as risky or less risky than financial derivatives? what is your opinion on credit default swaps?

**MonkeyF0cker** · 09-02-12, 08:03 PM

LOL. No. I don't care. This is his second thread addressed to rsigley in the TT though.

**Waterstpub87** · 09-02-12, 08:35 PM

What is an NCAAF derivative?

**gmcarroll33** · 09-02-12, 08:39 PM

A bet based off of a fg line. Quarters/halves etc. Enjoy it sbr, this guy will never give up

**339955** · 09-04-12, 11:59 AM

rsigley, I took your advice and am working on derivatives for months now. I think you owe me some guidance on what ROI is reasonable and I am waiting to see you post a sampling of your picks, so I can see if I am on the right track. I want to win money not go broke so I am waiting for your help hand.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 09-04-12, 12:09 PM

If he gave you advice, he OBVIOUSLY owes you.

Go away.

**antifoil** · 09-04-12, 05:05 PM

i don't know why you would take advice or picks from him. the last time i saw him give someone picks, he gave the opposite side he was on to fuk over some shill. he has sociopath behavior and should not be trusted.

**sideloaded** · 09-04-12, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by antifoil

i don't know why you would take advice or picks from him. the last time i saw him give someone picks, he gave the opposite side he was on to fuk over some shill. he has sociopath behavior and should not be trusted.

He ruined some construction worker's life over on 2p2. Then laughed his ass off.

**skrtelfan** · 09-04-12, 06:37 PM

Guy he gave the wrong side to wasn't even a shill, was just a random degen.

**339955** · 09-04-12, 09:58 PM

Yeah I will take my chances. Rsigley knows more about sports betting than anyone I know so we will be lucky to see him discuss with us here.

Rsigley, in addition to my above questions regarding derivative ROI in NCAAF spreads and also totals and desire to see a sampling of your bets...

Can you please give me some thoughts about what to look into going forward? I know you work with neural networks but you only mentioned it briefly so not sure how much you use it... is this something you programmed yourself in python? Do you use software? Is this a profitable way to go?

**mathdotcom** · 09-04-12, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by antifoil

i don't know why you would take advice or picks from him. the last time i saw him give someone picks, he gave the opposite side he was on to fuk over some shill. he has sociopath behavior and should not be trusted.

Anyone who bets someone else's plays deserves what's coming to them

We work hard to come up with our plays, why are we going to give them out for free to people who didn't do shit?

You guys don't see the unglamorous side of hours writing code, collecting data, analyzing it, then setting it up so you can run the numbers quickly on any given day and get shit as automated as you can

What an insult, asking for plays is like an able bodied guy panhandling at 5.05PM outside a factory

**339955** · 09-04-12, 10:47 PM

matdotcom, do you bet derivatives in American football? Do you have any experience using neural networks?

**sayhey69** · 09-04-12, 11:17 PM

lol

**jgilmartin** · 09-05-12, 12:04 AM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

You guys don't see the unglamorous side of hours writing code, collecting data, analyzing it, then setting it up so you can run the numbers quickly on any given day and get shit as automated as you can

What an insult, asking for plays is like an able bodied guy panhandling at 5.05PM outside a factory

This.

This thread is incredibly amusing and incredibly infuriating, simultaneously.

**brumbies** · 09-05-12, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by sayhey69

lol

Attached Files

**sideloaded** · 09-05-12, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

Anyone who bets someone else's plays deserves what's coming to them

We work hard to come up with our plays, why are we going to give them out for free to people who didn't do shit?

You guys don't see the unglamorous side of hours writing code, collecting data, analyzing it, then setting it up so you can run the numbers quickly on any given day and get shit as automated as you can

What an insult, asking for plays is like an able bodied guy panhandling at 5.05PM outside a factory

you missed the entire f-cking point. Check his post history. He intentionally baits randoms then toys with them giving fake picks. Like a small child torturing animals. Look at some of his posts in the nascar forum. No one forced him to act like the autistic socio-path that he is. I pissed him off once and he spent hours finding my posts on other forums and posting screenshots. Guy leads a sad life. I wish nothing but the worst for him.

**339955** · 09-05-12, 12:12 AM

sayhey man i told u shot me an email clambunny@gmail.com i have made a lot of progress we can help each other.

**antifoil** · 09-05-12, 12:49 AM

i am not going to go find the threads, but the way i remember it the guy wasn't asking for picks or anything.

and of course the guy has some accountability for taking advice from some random. however, mathdotcom has some internet fame and some level of trust here like rsigley did at 2p2 so it would be the analogous to him starting a thread where he gives out bad bets to harm the other person.

**sayhey69** · 09-05-12, 01:11 AM

Originally posted by 339955

sayhey man i told u shot me an email clambunny@gmail.com i have made a lot of progress we can help each other.

dont need an unluckyboys help. congrats on being rsigleys best friend. neural nets are definitely the way to go to model derivatives. anyone who says otherwise is just ******* with you

**Poogs** · 09-05-12, 07:15 AM

This guy is annoying as hell. Have fun with him, sbr. He started I think 3 different threads under 3 different names all demanding rsigleys help on 2p2. He's the guy on welfare getting drunk on his stoop at noon complaining that no one will help him out.

And no doubt rsigley is a miserable, lonesome bastard at best, but the guy he gave the fake picks to had it coming to say the least. (I still have my doubts it they were fake picks at all.) He was threatening to beat people up and asking for handouts at the same time. You can't act like an interent tough guy, beg for help, and then complain like a bitch when the help doesn't work out for you all in the same breath. Anytime sigley posts a play, you know one side is +ev. Just gotta figure out which one.

**rsigley** · 09-05-12, 07:54 AM

Hi

339955,

You made fun of me like 3 years ago so when I knew it was the same guy I painted derivatives as something easy to win at which isn't really that true. All the + money and ROI I showed you were true, but they're not obtainable by just taking the FG Total and dividing by 2 or 4. I never said that, but I did constantly point out how easy it is - but it really isn't. My goal was for you to think it was something really easy, somehow delude yourself into thinking you had a winning model, and hopefully you would go broke for making fun of me.Obviously I didn't think you weren't smart enough to come up with even a basic model so I guess that didn't work out for me.

If you learn something then maybe you can derive winning models for it, but based on past 3 months I doubt that will ever happen.

Sideoutloadeduk,

Why is it okay for you to troll people but when you get trolled back the person is a "psychopath" or "unstable"? Thin skinned much?

Re ledoutwithbottomset,

He kept making fun of me and others and threatening people, so I just gave him the opposite of three bets and then posted screenshots of my account from the other side after tip off. People act like he was 100% to lose. It was just a funny coincidence that all three bets lost and he lost all his money. I mean if the sides he were on were ~47% to win then it was only ~10% probability of that happening - guess I got lucky there. Also, not my fault he couldn't just look at sbrodds and notice there was steam against him before I posted and after.

I actually did feel bad and bought him a 60 inch 3D TV but then he made fun of me so I sent him a video of me shooting the TV I bought him with a gun until it was destroyed and throwing it off my roof into my pool.

Re nascar/posting picks,

I used to post picks and people won and PM'd me non stop, etc. - but then when you start to bet max at Pinny and other books there's no incentive. People always talk about "its us against the books bro", but its not really true. There's tons of times where I see a good number, load up sportsbook, and its gone by the time I hit bet. It happens a lot especially in smaller markets.

About Nascar/Formula1/MLB HRE/Other smaller markets I post about, what actually happened was I would bet one side a lot and with the small limits ($500) after 2-3 max bets Pinny would move the other side to the point where that had +EV. So I posted those so people could get the +EV on that side instead of hedging out then maybe I would buy back 2 more times if it moved enough. I mean in that case both sides had +EV, not my fault the posted picks version ran at like -40 units over 6 weeks. I'd also throw in fake "to win" bets to make it look like I was betting those which made the picks seem more real.

Is it shady? Maybe, but really why would you want to help someone else out who is competing for the same finite dollars and lines as you? That is psychopath and destructive behavior, sabotaging yourself for internet props from people you will never meet and don't want to meet.

**mathdotcom** · 09-05-12, 08:25 AM

Originally posted by 339955

matdotcom, do you bet derivatives in American football? Do you have any experience using neural networks?

Yes send me a cheque and I will send you an advanced model that picks 80% winners against -450 lines

**339955** · 09-05-12, 12:05 PM

edit to fix link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUH3JQjcweM

**MonkeyF0cker** · 09-05-12, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by rsigley

Hi

339955,

You made fun of me like 3 years ago so when I knew it was the same guy I painted derivatives as something easy to win at which isn't really that true. All the + money and ROI I showed you were true, but they're not obtainable by just taking the FG Total and dividing by 2 or 4. I never said that, but I did constantly point out how easy it is - but it really isn't. My goal was for you to think it was something really easy, somehow delude yourself into thinking you had a winning model, and hopefully you would go broke for making fun of me.Obviously I didn't think you weren't smart enough to come up with even a basic model so I guess that didn't work out for me.

If you learn something then maybe you can derive winning models for it, but based on past 3 months I doubt that will ever happen.

Sideoutloadeduk,

Why is it okay for you to troll people but when you get trolled back the person is a "psychopath" or "unstable"? Thin skinned much?

Re ledoutwithbottomset,

He kept making fun of me and others and threatening people, so I just gave him the opposite of three bets and then posted screenshots of my account from the other side after tip off. People act like he was 100% to lose. It was just a funny coincidence that all three bets lost and he lost all his money. I mean if the sides he were on were ~47% to win then it was only ~10% probability of that happening - guess I got lucky there. Also, not my fault he couldn't just look at sbrodds and notice there was steam against him before I posted and after.

I actually did feel bad and bought him a 60 inch 3D TV but then he made fun of me so I sent him a video of me shooting the TV I bought him with a gun until it was destroyed and throwing it off my roof into my pool.

Re nascar/posting picks,

I used to post picks and people won and PM'd me non stop, etc. - but then when you start to bet max at Pinny and other books there's no incentive. People always talk about "its us against the books bro", but its not really true. There's tons of times where I see a good number, load up sportsbook, and its gone by the time I hit bet. It happens a lot especially in smaller markets.

About Nascar/Formula1/MLB HRE/Other smaller markets I post about, what actually happened was I would bet one side a lot and with the small limits ($500) after 2-3 max bets Pinny would move the other side to the point where that had +EV. So I posted those so people could get the +EV on that side instead of hedging out then maybe I would buy back 2 more times if it moved enough. I mean in that case both sides had +EV, not my fault the posted picks version ran at like -40 units over 6 weeks. I'd also throw in fake "to win" bets to make it look like I was betting those which made the picks seem more real.

Is it shady? Maybe, but really why would you want to help someone else out who is competing for the same finite dollars and lines as you? That is psychopath and destructive behavior, sabotaging yourself for internet props from people you will never meet and don't want to meet.

It's "us against the books, bro" but you're supposed to do all of the work and then just hand it over to everyone for free. That's how it's supposed to work.

You're not following the plan, rsigley. How dare you?

**cubsker** · 09-05-12, 01:10 PM

link to tv going into pool?

**339955** · 09-05-12, 02:34 PM

rsigley can you please share your thoughts on modeling some of these NFL derivatives using a linear regression as opposed to logistic regression classification problem? When would you want to use linear regression instead of logistic regression on a classification problem?

**339955** · 09-05-12, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by sayhey69

dont need an unluckyboys help. congrats on being rsigleys best friend. neural nets are definitely the way to go to model derivatives. anyone who says otherwise is just ******* with you

what have you modeled with artificial neural networks? do you use a program or do it by hand with R?

**antifoil** · 09-05-12, 03:56 PM

that is also a characteristic of psychopathic behavior. blame someone else for your actions and trying to manipulate someone into going broke.

made fun of me on the internet. lose all your money.

if everyone thought like this, monkeyfocker would have been murdered at the sbr bash.

with regard to the other stuff, i don't think you should give out picks and the like. that doesn't make you a scumbag. you can always just be a dick like monkey without intentionally trying to cause harm to others for hurting your feelings.

**rsigley** · 09-05-12, 08:24 PM

insult someone, suck their dick for picks and then cry when they lose

sounds like degen gambler behavior

**KGambler** · 09-05-12, 08:47 PM

sideloaded, the emo troll

**subs** · 09-05-12, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by cubsker

link to tv going into pool?

this +1

**GoDeViLs** · 09-05-12, 09:54 PM

And who says sportbettors are just degens and scumbags?

**sideloaded** · 09-05-12, 10:35 PM

Except you didnt troll me you dumb f-ck, you reposted levels I posted at gamelive. Funny you went through all that trouble thinking you nailed me. rsigley has had a lot of emotional problems and taking the internet srs since his wife left him. inb4imgay inb4mygf cheated on me.