Calculating how much a number is worth

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  • NSN21
    SBR Sharp
    • 05-13-11
    • 322

    #1
    Calculating how much a number is worth
    Looking for a bit of math help here...

    If I know a certain number has a push percentage of X, what is the math behind calculating how many cents it is worth? For example, if I find out that CFB total of 55 pushes exactly 8% of the time (obviously not true, but for the sake of argument), how would I figure out how many cents it is worth to play 54.5 & 55.5?

    Real world example: 3 in the NFL pushes at a rate of approximately 10%, and is worth approximately 22 cents. How is that 22 cents calculated?
  • wrongturn
    SBR MVP
    • 06-06-06
    • 2228

    #2
    Let's say the line is +3 -110. You want to know what price for +3.5 is equivalent to +3 -110. The two bet's expected value should be same:

    Risk $110 to win 100 on +3 -110: EV = 45% * 100 + 10% * 0 + 45% * (-110) = -4.5
    Risk $X to win 100 on +3.5 -x: EV = 55% * 100 + 45% * (-X) = 55 - 0.45X

    55 - 0.45X = -4.5
    X=132.2

    So the fair price for +3.5 is about -132, which is about 22 cents from -110.

    Note: It is not the accurate calculation but simple and close enough.
    Last edited by wrongturn; 08-22-12, 01:07 PM.
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    • NSN21
      SBR Sharp
      • 05-13-11
      • 322

      #3
      wrongturn - Thank you, that helps a ton!
      Comment
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