NFL totals model MAE analysis - Sportsbook Review Forum

brettd

SBR High Roller

Join Date: 01-25-10

Posts: 229
#1

NFL totals model MAE analysis

08-19-12, 11:02 AM

I'm getting a Mean Absolute Error of 11.10 points on my NFL totals model (on a fairly sizable testing set) comparing against the actual scoreline. It seems to me that the market's MAE over the last 4 years is 10.4 points on NFL totals.

I've not gone to the point of testing ATS, but given my MAE result on my out of sample testing set, can I expect to fare well on totals ATS?

Last edited by brettd; 08-19-12, 11:26 AM.
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tukkk

SBR Sharp

Join Date: 10-04-10

Posts: 391
#2

08-19-12, 11:23 AM

im assuming this isnt based on all the games available, but the ones your model has chosen
so what is the % of games chosen?

Last edited by tukkk; 08-19-12, 11:30 AM.
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