Am I sharp?

[mr.ed]

My record in baseball o/u this year is 286-227 with average line of -110. Is it possible that I have had a very lucky year, or given these numbers must there be something good to the model I have created. In other words, what is the probability of attaining a record such as mine by coin-flipping? 100-1? 1000-1? 1,000,000 - 1?

Important for me to know as considering putting pedal to the medal and want to make sure it's just not a lucky streak.

[mathdotcom]

tell us about your model and then we can tell you for sure

[Easy-Rider 66]

Impressive record at 59 games over 50%. But who knows if you got lucky or you have found an effective model. Most lose in the long run so tread carefully. GL.

[PAULYPOKER]

What are you doing different this year compared to past years?

[hutennis]

My record in baseball o/u this year is 286-227 with average line of -110. Is it possible that I have had a very lucky year, or given these numbers must there be something good to the model I have created. In other words, what is the probability of attaining a record such as mine by coin-flipping? 100-1? 1000-1? 1,000,000 - 1?

Important for me to know as considering putting pedal to the medal and want to make sure it's just not a lucky streak.

Assuming that -110 means that your avg implied probability is 50%, the number you are looking for is 192 to 1.

So there must be at least hundreds of thousands lucky records like that out there.

Are you, personally, sharp?

I doubt it very much.

How sharp can you be really if you could not find this answer yourself?
If you are that much ignorant, how have managed to come up with what must be one of the most sophisticated models in SB history?
Plus, with -105 lines readily available, how sharp can you be really if you still using -110?

So, if I were you, I would take it easy as far as pedal to the metal plans.

[Inkwell77]

Plus, with -105 lines readily available, how sharp can you be really if you still using -110?

So, if I were you, I would take it easy as far as pedal to the metal plans.

uh.....
he could definitely be implying he took a -105 under on game 1 and a -115 over on game 2, in essence an average line of -110. So saying there are -105 lines available is probably not correct. Right now there are currently 0 games at pinnacle with a -105 on the over and -105 on the under.

Although I do agree with your other point of not being able to find the odds of such event happening. I'm not that great at math but I've learned enough to be able to look up a binomial calculator.

[chunk]

Assuming that -110 means that your avg implied probability is 50%, the number you are looking for is 192 to 1.

So there must be at least hundreds of thousands lucky records like that out there.

Are you, personally, sharp?

I doubt it very much.

How sharp can you be really if you could not find this answer yourself?
If you are that much ignorant, how have managed to come up with what must be one of the most sophisticated models in SB history?
Plus, with -105 lines readily available, how sharp can you be really if you still using -110?

So, if I were you, I would take it easy as far as pedal to the metal plans.

It's really out of character for you to be hammering this guy.I would stick to the speed limit for a while though....this speedster isn't quite broken in yet.

[subs]

My record in baseball o/u this year is 286-227 with average line of -110. Is it possible that I have had a very lucky year, or given these numbers must there be something good to the model I have created. In other words, what is the probability of attaining a record such as mine by coin-flipping? 100-1? 1000-1? 1,000,000 - 1?

Important for me to know as considering putting pedal to the medal and want to make sure it's just not a lucky streak.

LOL no 1 has given him the answer.

P(X > 286)=0.06871

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

it is fairly easy in excel too.

Gratz on winning - but is not that rare. ~6.9% so for every 14 or 15 people doing what you r doing 1 would get a similar record.

how did u do against the closer? i can't help more than that really but i'd be fairly cautious (that's mostly cos i'm a pussy).

[mathdotcom]

LOL no 1 has given him the answer.

P(X > 286)=0.06871

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

it is fairly easy in excel too.

Gratz on winning - but is not that rare. ~6.9% so for every 14 or 15 people doing what you r doing 1 would get a similar record.

how did u do against the closer? i can't help more than that really but i'd be fairly cautious (that's mostly cos i'm a pussy).

that's the answer for his personal use

for us we have to account for the selection bias -- only those with winning records bother to post about them here, so given that the odds he has a winning model are pretty slight

[Monte]

What sub says, what matters is your bets vs. the closing lines.

[subs]

actually, after re-reading this thread someone DID give him the answer, i have clearly made a dumb mistake...

with the information here the answer is hutennis's number, or somewhere in between, but much much closer to hu's. i'm dumb, hu isn't.


P(X > 286)=0.00518733952063299

so 192 to 1


my bad - sorry.

note to self (and possibly others), read what hu says more carefully... he may have a different take but i think that's good, otherwise we'd just be sitting around patting each other on the back.

i just proved to myself (again) that i'm bad at speed reading.

thanks Hu.

[mr.ed]

I appreciate all of your responses...thanks! I used the binomial calculator myself and got the 192-1 figure that the hutennis poster referenced so I'll go with that.

And speaking of hutennis....hope you are not offended, but I am going to disregard your advice about not putting my pedal to the medal. You see, my pedal has been on the medal for the last 13 years in deriving my entire income from sportsbetting. And while we always want more, I live pretty well, thank you.

Limits on baseball O/U's are way, way higher than the events I generally wager on, so I am trying to determine how cautious I need to be. Justin7 wrote about the type of player I am in his book....small market players that hammer small market sports and live comfortably doing it. My baseball model could represent my coming out party into the world of top tier events...naturally I would like confirmation from others that I am doing the right thing. The odds of 192-1 in getting the results I have merely by chance is exactly what I wanted to hear.

[hutennis]

uh.....
he could definitely be implying he took a -105 under on game 1 and a -115 over on game 2, in essence an average line of -110. .

uh it is.

If that is the case then his average implied probability is not 50% anymore but 51.19%
That makes his chances of being simply lucky are merely 47 to 1.
There has to be millions lucky records like that out there.

That's of course if we assume that results are governed by bell curve which I'm not sure at all.

Now. I'm not hammering anybody, I'm not offended by anything and I'm not going to be impressed by any
unsubstantiated claim made in a public internet forum.

I simply answer the question honestly while taking everything at face value.

That being said, when simple logic is applied it is easy to see that the picture painted just does not make much sense.
It's kind of hard to connect dots. They are too far a part.

[mr.ed]

[QUOTE=hutennis;15679354]uh it is.

If that is the case then his average implied probability is not 50% anymore but 51.19%
That makes his chances of being simply lucky are merely 47 to 1.
There has to be millions lucky records like that out there.

If you are corrrect regarding all of the other lucky records out there, there has to be at least 94 million baseball bettors out there who have bet over 500 MLB totals this season. That's nearly 1 out of every 3 Americans! Talk about the dots not connecting!

All of the dots will be connected for you next year with the release of my book in which I write about my 13 years in the sportsbetting biz. Actually, I can only connect half of them, as I would take hit a serious hit on my bottom line if I talked about everything, as with small market sports it only takes one other bettor or two to move the lines and take away all my value. Can I add you to my mailing list?

One other thing...I know I can do better than -110. I think VPN is the best way to do it, but I have no overseas connections which I think are required to pull it off. I could also move to Canada, which I have looked at in the past. I learned that you can go to any country you want as long as put up enough money. Even the USA is for sale!

Just love that binomial calculator. After going 2-3 last night my odds have dropped to 166 -1.

[hutennis]

[QUOTE=mr.ed;15680888]

uh it is.

If you are corrrect regarding all of the other lucky records out there, there has to be at least 94 million baseball bettors out there who have bet over 500 MLB totals this season. That's nearly 1 out of every 3 Americans! Talk about the dots not connecting!

In order to be a member of 47 to 1 club you don't need to be an American betting over 500 MLB totals this season.
You can live in Bangladesh and bet cricket or in France and bet football at what ever rate you do.
As long as your results have 1 chance in 47 you are in.
I'm sure you knew that. Just a momentary lapse.

All of the dots will be connected for you next year with the release of my book in which I write about my 13 years in the sportsbetting biz. Actually, I can only connect half of them, as I would take hit a serious hit on my bottom line if I talked about everything, as with small market sports it only takes one other bettor or two to move the lines and take away all my value. Can I add you to my mailing list?

Thanks, I'll wait for Amazon release.

One other thing...I know I can do better than -110. I think VPN is the best way to do it, but I have no overseas connections which I think are required to pull it off. I could also move to Canada, which I have looked at in the past. I learned that you can go to any country you want as long as put up enough money. Even the USA is for sale!

Just love that binomial calculator. After going 2-3 last night my odds have dropped to 166 -1.

Have you ever heard about 5 dimes?

[mr.ed]

I've been playing at 5dimes for at least 10 years, and still have an active account there. Only problem is that they have reduced my limits to extremely low levels on stuff I win at. I play baseball totals there at reduced juice but am limited to $100 a play. They are a very sharp book as they know they can be beaten on certain things, and quickly take action (reduce limits) when this occurs. Frustrating for me, but I would do the exact same thing if i was on the other side of the betting window.

[hutennis]

I've been playing at 5dimes for at least 10 years, and still have an active account there. Only problem is that they have reduced my limits to extremely low levels on stuff I win at. I play baseball totals there at reduced juice but am limited to $100 a play. They are a very sharp book as they know they can be beaten on certain things, and quickly take action (reduce limits) when this occurs. Frustrating for me, but I would do the exact same thing if i was on the other side of the betting window.

A lot of interesting stories.
Must be fascinating book coming.

I think I got a picture.
GL

[Bigbill365]

theres only one explanation your a sharp you know how to bet you know how to be on the right side more of the time then wrong so up the bet

[MonkeyF0cker]

Weird thread.

Your income comes exclusively from sports betting (for over a decade apparently). But you need confirmation over your record. And you've developed a probability model. Yet, you can't work out a binomial probability.

Something doesn't add up.

I'm going to go ahead and answer No.

[mr.ed]

Weird thread.

Your income comes exclusively from sports betting (for over a decade apparently). But you need confirmation over your record. And you've developed a probability model. Yet, you can't work out a binomial probability.

Something doesn't add up.
I'm going to go ahead and answer No.

I think you are rightfully suspicious. How could I have a very advanced baseball model yet not know how to run a binomial probability?

Perhaps I have made an error in terminology and what I really have is a "system" rather than a "model." I am not a math guy, although I do have a math mind and have been blessed with the gift of doing fast calculations in my head, which is a big asset in what I do.

I have 12 years of MLB data on a spreadsheet. Based on my analysis of the data, I determine what plays to make, but each play is a decison on my part based on the data I am looking at. My model/system does not tell me what to bet or how much. Rather, I make these decisions based on my perceived advantage from the data I am reviewing. (e.g. - I have a slight edge in this game so I will bet 1.0 unit....big advantage on this game so my bet will be 2.5 units.) My range is 1.0 to 3.0 units, all done by feel. The W/L record I posted does not factor in varying bets sizes.

So perhaps I don't have a model after all, but rather a system. I am surprised I am doing as well as I am, so naturally I was curious to find out if my results may simply be the product of very good luck. I could have researched and eventually I would have stumbled upon the binomial calculator, but I realized this must be a very simple exercise for math guys and I would probably got a quick answer in this forum, which I did.

[HUY]

My record in baseball o/u this year is 286-227 with average line of -110. Is it possible that I have had a very lucky year, or given these numbers must there be something good to the model I have created. In other words, what is the probability of attaining a record such as mine by coin-flipping? 100-1? 1000-1? 1,000,000 - 1?

If you can't figure this out yourself (not even with Google at your disposal) then I would say that your handicapping is not particularly strong.

[chunk]

I think you are rightfully suspicious. How could I have a very advanced baseball model yet not know how to run a binomial probability?

Perhaps I have made an error in terminology and what I really have is a "system" rather than a "model." I am not a math guy, although I do have a math mind and have been blessed with the gift of doing fast calculations in my head, which is a big asset in what I do.

I have 12 years of MLB data on a spreadsheet. Based on my analysis of the data, I determine what plays to make, but each play is a decison on my part based on the data I am looking at. My model/system does not tell me what to bet or how much. Rather, I make these decisions based on my perceived advantage from the data I am reviewing. (e.g. - I have a slight edge in this game so I will bet 1.0 unit....big advantage on this game so my bet will be 2.5 units.) My range is 1.0 to 3.0 units, all done by feel. The W/L record I posted does not factor in varying bets sizes.

So perhaps I don't have a model after all, but rather a system. I am surprised I am doing as well as I am, so naturally I was curious to find out if my results may simply be the product of very good luck. I could have researched and eventually I would have stumbled upon the binomial calculator, but I realized this must be a very simple exercise for math guys and I would probably got a quick answer in this forum, which I did.

I don't especially like the "done by feel" comment and I'd venture to say that if you're being honest about your record, that there is more going on than you will cut loose with here. That being said, you make one hell of a lot more sense(reading between the lines) in this post than most of the clowns in this place do with 50 posts. Nice to see someone that isn't out to give a math tutorial and/or just out to spout off about a bunch of nonsense that most sane people don't give a damn about.

[CrimsonQueen]

Why has no one pointed out that he might be down money? and that you can't figure out his Z-score from the information supplied?

He uses varying bet sizes... He could be 287-0 on 1 units plays (+287 units) and 0-227 on 3 unit plays (-749.1 Units) for a total of -462.1 Units. Obviously I'm exaggerating the point, but he could easily be up a WIDE range of units (assuming he is up at all) and therefore you don't know how good his "model" (which turns out to just be "feel") really is. Also Z-score would take into account that maybe he mostly wins -135 plays, and loses +115 plays.

[illfuuptn]

People make mistakes talking about "average lines."

Say you bet 2 games, +200 and -150. Implied probs repectively, 33.333% and 60%. Those added then divided by 2 yields ~46.6% which is about +114. Most would just average out lines themselves and mistakenly arrive at +125.

But imo even that is moot. It's probably better to analyze median lines or something like that.

[Inkwell77]

People make mistakes talking about "average lines."

Say you bet 2 games, +200 and -150. Implied probs repectively, 33.333% and 60%. Those added then divided by 2 yields ~46.6% which is about +114. Most would just average out lines themselves and mistakenly arrive at +125.

But imo even that is moot. It's probably better to analyze median lines or something like that.

good point here